Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 291442 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1042 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1032 AM EDT SATURDAY...THIN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF POSITIVE TILT 700-500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR NRN NY AND VT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WITH THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS 15-20 MPH AT TIMES. A PLEASANT DAY OVERALL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING INDICATED. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.