Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220801 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 401 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Quiet weather will come to an end with thunderstorms firing today ahead of an approaching cold front. Some storms may have damaging winds and very heavy rain. Cold front moves across the area overnight an storms come to an end. The remainder of the week is shaping up to be cooler and drier with below normal temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 313 AM EDT Tuesday...Today will be a very active weather day with severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of approaching cold front, crossing our forecast area from West to East. The main window will be from noon to 6 pm. SPC has placed part of our area in an enhanced risk with slight everywhere else. A low pressure system will deepen as it tracks from the Northern Great Lakes, northeastward towards Quebec. A strong upper level trough will also approach from the west during this timeframe. Strong southwesterly flow will be increasing today and advecting deep low level moisture into the region. Pwats will be over 2" in some spots. Cape will be around 800-2000 J/k. Increasing shear profiles are also expected ahead of the approaching cold front, will have a 500 mb jet around 50 kts overhead, this brings 0-6 km bulk shear of about 40 kts. These ingredients all add up to some strong to severe storms developing. The main risk with these storms will be damaging winds, perhaps in the form of a bow echo. Pwats up around 2" will make heavy rain an expectation, but storms should be moving along fast enough to avoid any big flash flood problems. Temperatures will once again reach the mid to upper 80s today. Cold front moves across the area overnight and thunderstorms will be dying down as the night wears on. May see some showers with the surface frontal passage, but severe threat will be diminished. A few additional showers are possible Wednesday as upper level trough finally makes its way across our area. Temps on Wed will be about 10 degrees cooler than Tue, much closer to seasonal normals.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 425 PM EDT Monday...On Wed a broad cyclonic west southwest flow aloft with the upper trof axis over the Great Lakes will bring partly sunny skies along with with cold advection will bring a possibility of isolated shower or sprinkle, mainly across the far north right through Wednesday night. 850 temps fall to 8-10C and will bring high temps mainly in the 70s with lows Wed night in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 425 PM EDT Monday...The upper level trough will be swinging across the region early in the time period. Dry high surface pressure will have already moved into the area behind a cold front so any lingering showers will be light. An extension of the upper level low will continue to rotate over the canadian maritimes through the weekend swinging periodic vort maxes across the region. This will lead to mainly slight chances for showers over the Northeast Kingdom where orographic affects will aid in development. Temperatures will be slightly lower than normal throughout the period. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions this morning, except for MVFR/IFR fog development expected at KSLK and KMPV. Low level jet not at strong as last night, therefore expect fog to develop between 06Z-08Z and be somewhat more persistent through 11Z. Southerly winds quickly increase between 12-15z with localized gusts to 25 kts expected during the midday through afternoon hours. Lake breeze boundary will keep winds at 150 to 170 at PBG until midday. Otherwise...strong to severe thunderstorms will develop between 16z-01z with possible localized strong/gusty winds, creating areas of moderate/severe turbulence and wind shear, along with frequent lightning. Also expect periods of heavy downpours to deteriorate flight conditions to MVFR/IFR when directly affecting terminals. Showers and storms expected to develop in moist, hot air starting 16Z. More organized storms developing along frontal boundary that will move from west to east across the North Country starting around 18Z, reaching the Champlain Valley around 21-00Z, then exiting southeast VT after 01Z. Some lingering showers possible heading into Tuesday night. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...KGM

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