Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 302001 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 301 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW TODAY...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1210 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...AND COLDER AIR NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. CENTER OF WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING JUST NORTH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE PRIMARY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ALREADY FALLING THROUGH TEENS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THIS TREND OF FALLING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SNOW GREATEST ACROSS VERMONT...SO FORECAST OF PERIODS OF SNOW FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD FOR REST OF TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...WHILE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. ONLY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...AND BLEND WITH GOING FORECAST. OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS BULK OF FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. EARLIER DISCUSSION... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SNOW AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WINDS IN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY ALREADY SHIFTING NORTHWEST. VAD WIND PROFILE AT KCXX SHOWING VEERING WIND PROFILE FURTHER SUPPORTING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW. CLIPPER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC...MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW STILL LOOKS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEGATIVELY TILT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHER NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER VT INTO THIS EVENING. . WITH CLOUDY SKIES, SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL ARRIVE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE 20S. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL REACH NORTHERN NY WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 444 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN VERMONT. WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. NEGATIVE TILTING OF TROUGH WILL SLOW THE LOWS PROGRESSION OUT TO SEA, KEEPING MOISTURE AND A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HENCE, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TO ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH...THOUGH UPSLOPE MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE-WISE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW. 925MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPG WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND ONSET OF CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NORTHERN NY WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AS IT WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD, FALLING COLDER THAN -20 DEGREES AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST OF NORTHERN NY IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS AROUND -30 OR COLDER. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD DUE TO CLOUD COVER. ONCE SURVIVING THE DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND HELP THE COASTAL LOW TO MOVE FURTHER TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO WARM IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE DOUBLE DIGITS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, UPPER WAVE WILL TRY TO BRING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO NORTHERN NY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE RANGING FROM NEGATIVE MID-TEENS TO NEAR ZERO. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND BRINGS PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BTV...MPV AND RUT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER ABOUT 12Z. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR. 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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