Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 010242
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
942 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016
Rain will continue to spread across the North Country tonight
with strong gusty winds possible through early Thursday morning.
On Thursday, the rain will become focused around the higher
terrain, changing to snow Thursday night. Terrain focused
precipitation will continue Friday into Saturday, followed by a
brief period of drier weather on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 937 PM EST Wednesday...Have updated to reflect current
observations and radar trends. Steadier rain will move across
the forecast area between 6z and 12z. Have increased overnight
minimum temperatures. Clouds and precipitation will prevent
temperatures from falling very much, especially with small
dewpoint depressions. Previous discussion follows.
Strong wind gusts expected tonight. Have issued SPS for
subadvisory criteria. But cannot rule out isolated areas
reaching advisory criteria, mainly near the summits.
Large low pressure system will continue to push rain into the
North Country, along with strong low level jet moving into the
region. GFS and NAM indicate 50 kt jet at 850mb around 06Z,
exiting NEwd around 12Z. Local BTV2km model shows SE jet
resulting in strong downsloping wind gusts on western slopes
peaking in strength at 06Z. As rain spreads across the area,
question is how long will mixing last before stabilizing effects
of the rain. BUFKIT models show mixing limited to about 950mb
with winds decreasing starting 08z.
Cooling 925mb temperatures early in the night, trending warmer
after 06Z Thursday. The aforementioned strong gusty winds are
expected to diminish around 09Z as BL shrinks. With rain and
clouds, expect Min temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Come Thursday morning, main precip shield will lift to the
north and east, with rain showers expected to concentrate around
the higher terrain as we remain under cyclonic flow. Max
temperatures will be in the 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 PM EST Wednesday...The region will remain under the
influence of a closed upper low over Quebec through the period,
with chances for rain and snow showers through the period. The
higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains will
see some accumulating light snow through the period.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 336 PM EST Wednesday...The region will remain under
cyclonic flow Saturday and Saturday night from a departing
surface low pressure area over the Canadian maritimes, so will
have in chance pops for rain or snow showers Saturday and
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build
east from the Great lakes through the period, with mainly fair
and dry weather expected. GFS model has shown better run to run
model consistency then the ECMWF, so have stuck with its
solution. The ECMWF model shows a lack of run to run
consistency, so have stayed with the GFS model from Sunday
through Wednesday, which shows a strong upper ridge building
over the north country from Sunday through Wednesday.
.AVIATION /03Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Friday...Active aviation weather conditions over the
next 24 hours. Frontal system lifting northward into the region
will bring widespread rainfall through 12Z Thursday, with
precipitation becoming more intermittent/showery thereafter.
Presently seeing VFR conditions at BTV/PBG/SLK, but overall
trend will be toward MVFR overnight, with localized IFR for
MSS/MPV/RUT. Gradual improvement is expected during the daylight
hours on Thursday. Winds will also be an issue overnight...with
gusts to 35kts at RUT through 06Z, and localized LLWS at MPV
through 06Z. Will see winds shift into the SW during Thursday
morning with passage of an occulded front. Winds will be locally
moderately strong at KMSS on Thursday...SW 10-15kt with gusts to
Outlook 00Z Friday through Monday...A slow clearing trend is
anticipated with IFR conditions becoming MVFR on Thursday Night
into Friday. Mainly MVFR will prevail in the mountain TAF sites
and a mix of MVFR/VFR in the valleys through the upcoming
weekend. While drier conditions are expected Sunday and Monday,
low level moisture will likely keep VFR/MVFR clouds around
Sunday, less so Monday.