Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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313 FXUS61 KBTV 121447 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 947 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 939 AM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TRANQUIL AND COLD THIS MORNING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT. BEGINNING TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (SOUTH WINDS 12KTS AT BTV AT 14Z) AND THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CURRENTLY...BUT INCREASING SSW-SW FLOW FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN NY AND VT INTO THIS AFTN. ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF ONTARIO PER KTYX-88D WILL ELONGATE AS BACKGROUND FLOW STRENGTHENS...AND BACK INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR LOW VSBY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS RESULTING IN AREAS OF SLOW TRAVEL FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC ARCTIC BNDRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AFTER 15Z...AND PERSIST THRU 00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM 00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ALL TAF SITES ARE FINALLY VFR. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. S AND SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...VEERING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. S WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM AT BTV GROUND OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT. LOCAL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL BE BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. DEPENDING ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029- 087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...NEILES

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