Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301936 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 336 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY FALL WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOLER...CLOUDIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 336 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER STILL PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND ALSO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE HAD TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE IN CLOUD COVERED AREA...ESPECIALLY AT MONTPELIER (MPV) WHERE IT WAS STILL 59 AS OF 1 PM EDT...AND 56 AT MASSENA (MSS). CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...FROM TONIGHT ONWARD INTO THURSDAY PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE/DRY FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NRN NY/VT WEATHER AS AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED H5 LOW SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST. CLOUDS AGAIN QUITE VARIABLE WITH PARTIAL SUN EXPECTED HERE AND THERE...MOST PREVALENT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST AND LESS SO EASTERN COUNTIES WITH EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER EASTERLY MARITIME PUSH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH DAILY HIGHS WED/THU FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S (COOLEST ERN VT) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 336 PM EDT TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT AND LOCKED IN ON THE UPCOMING PATTERN SHIFT. DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING INTO RICH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FEEL THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER SLOW...OFFERING A GOOD 6-12 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW END WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE PRONE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH A STRONG 50-60KT SOUTHEASTERLY JET AT 850MB PRE-FRONT. DOESN`T LOOK AS STRONG AT 925MB RIGHT NOW...BUT THEN AGAIN WE`RE LOOKING AT THE COARSE 40KM RESOLUTIONS OF THE GFS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND INTO THE TIME-SCALE OF OUR HIGHER RESOLUTIONS MODELS. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THOUGH IN REALITY THEY WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM WHAT WE SHOULD BE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. WE`VE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR SO LONG THOUGH THAT IT`LL FEEL QUITE CHILLY. HIGH TEMPS SUN/MON/TUE WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH 40S ON THE MTN PEAKS...AND LOWS WILL RUN GENERALLY IN THE 40S VALLEYS TO 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST OF SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT INCREASING POPS AREA-WIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION FORECAST WOES CONTINUE FOR THE 18Z SUITE WITH LITERALLY ZERO AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAVING A CLUE AS TO WHAT THE CURRENT OR FORECAST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE. THAT SAID...HAVE OFFERED BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS WHICH I`M FAIRLY CONFIDENT ABOUT...BEYOND THAT...VERY MUCH LESS SO. STILL DEALING WITH A SOUTHEAST STRATUS DECK FROM BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING BUT HAS PROGRESSED WESTWARD OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS INTO THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MEANWHILE STRATUS LAYER AT MSS FROM FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH ON NORTHEAST FLOW IS ALSO SLOWLY LIFTING OUT...AND KMSS SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF VFR COMING UP HERE SOON WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS SOUTH THINK WE`LL SEE LOWERING CEILINGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WHERE MVFR ISN`T ALREADY PRESENT...AND REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT EACH TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE N-NE FROM KBTV WESTWARD...AND SE AT KMPV/RUT. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WED - 00Z THU...CEILINGS TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV WITH EAST FLOW. 00Z THU - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 06-13Z EACH DAY. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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