Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181934 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 334 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the east coast of the United States will maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday. With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west to east. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday...Going forecast on track. 925mb temps around 12C at BTV per RAP this afternoon which should yield max temps in the mid 60s in the valleys lower 60s in the hills this afternoon which is well covered in the going forecast. Very quiet wx through the near-term. Generally looking at clear skies otherwise through tonight. The sfc ridge axis extending along the east coast of the U.S. and building shortwave ridging aloft will bring dry weather, but southerly pressure gradient increases overnight especially west of the Greens with light south to southwest winds and moderating temperatures. Only a very small chance for any radiation fog east of the Greens so left it out. Lows mainly in the 40s for tonight except near 50 in the St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys. Temperatures moderate further on Thursday under a rather strong west southwest flow with 850-mb winds 30 to 50 kts leading to breezy surface winds of around 15 kt with gusts to 25 to 30 kt. With 925-mb temps around 14C for looking for max temps reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another mid-upr level shortwave trough is progged to pass along the intl border Thursday afternoon. This feature should bring an increase in mid-upr level clouds, but dry low-level conditions should preclude any precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 334 PM EDT Wednesday...A rather dry cold front will pass through the region Thursday night with some clouds especially in the northern Green mountains where a sprinkle can`t be ruled out. 925mb temps drop to about 8C near BTV on Friday for "cooler" high temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s, still a bit above normal. High pressure will slide across the mid-Atlantic states and off the coast lead to quiet weather conditions with mostly clear skies under broad subsidence. Return SW flow around the high with warm advection over the weekend will will bring warming temps each day with upper 60s Saturday to 70 by Sunday. Each night we`ll radiatively cool and should see temps in the upper 30s to low 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 329 AM EDT Wednesday...Coming out of the weekend expect a full latitude trough digging into the eastern CONUS which will bring several chances for showers to the region. The first chance will be a front that moves through late Monday into Tuesday with the best chance being towards the midweek as a closed low should develop over the Great Lakes and advances a stronger frontal system through the North Country. Global models are depicting a 995mb low over the Great Lakes with a 1020mb high out over the Atlantic. The resulting pressure gradient should lead to fairly gusty winds with the potential for 15-25 mph with gust to 30mph of southwest funneled valley flow on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR/dry with breezy south to southwest winds gusty to 25-30 kts by 15-18z Thu. A moderately strong pressure gradient develops with high pressure over the southeast US and low pressure over James Bay through Thu so along with the winds it looks like chances of any fog at KMPV is small early tomorrow morning. Only expecting some high to mid level clouds toward 18z Thu ahead of an approaching weak cold front which passes through mainly dry Thursday night with a wind shift to west northwest. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE...
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Southerly winds will increase overnight reaching 15 to 25 kts by dawn Thursday as a moderately strong pressure gradient develops. Relatively mild water temps in the upper 50s may mix winds of 30 knots just above the surface early Thursday morning, so could be a bit higher than 25 knot for a few hours from sunrise to noon. Winds should slowly diminish late in the afternoon and then shift to the west northwest 10 to 15 knots Thursday night.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance through a good portion of today (October 18) as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Sisson SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Banacos MARINE... EQUIPMENT...Team BTV

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