Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280737 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 337 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 359 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FROM ABOUT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED. FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z BUT ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL THE EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES WILL CLEAR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. IT WILL BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECASTS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. STILL ANTICIPATING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF SFC FEATURE...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ON SFC HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...DEPENDING UPON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT WHEN FROPA OCCURS. AT THIS TIME...BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG...WHILE BEST 0 TO 6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MTN VALLEYS ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S COLDER VALLEYS ON MONDAY MORNING TO M/U 40S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. LOWS WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY MID WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE DACKS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG/BR TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND IR SATL TRENDS SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. HAVE USED A TWO HOUR TEMPO TO COVER LIGHT RAIN MOVING FROM NEAR SLK INTO BTV OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT RUT/MPV/BTV. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTN AND BECOME LIGHT TOWARD SUNSET. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND RUTLAND ON FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... AS OF 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE OPEN WATER AND ALONG SOUTHERN FACING SHORELINES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS/MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...VERASAMY/MUCCILLI

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