Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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729 FXUS61 KBTV 271939 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 339 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS TODAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 222 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINTAINING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS. ONCE PBL DEEPENS THIS MORNING...WILL SEE GENERALLY NW WINDS 5-10 MPH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NRN/NERN VT ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY TODAY AND CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS -4C TO -7C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN WITH FULL SUN...ONLY LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...10-15DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. POPS NIL. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY, CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. DURING THE DAY EXPECT GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT BOTH MSS AND MPV WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS INTERMITTENTLY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND NO SIG WX. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL

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