Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260827 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL STALL INITIALLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1217 AM EST MONDAY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING SETTING UP A DRY AND FRIGID NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FORM -1 TO -6F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY -5 TO -15F ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE TEMPS LOCALLY NEAR -20F AT SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) AND IN A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO WILL BUILD ESEWD AND CREST OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 352 PM EST SUNDAY...MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND FORM INTO A MILLER B NOR`EASTER DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY ON MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING BECOMING INCREASINGLY HEAVY ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY FOR NEW ENGLAND. IN SOUTHERN VERMONT A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 14 INCH RANGE. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS THE BEST FRONTOGENSIS FORCING...STILL NOT EXTREMELY STRONG HOWEVER...BETWEEN 850-700MB WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A MESOSCALE BAND DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWFALL LEADING TO NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...PRIMARY HIGHLIGHT DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOWS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BROAD WARM THERMAL ADVECTION AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD AT LEAST SPELL SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT WITH THE LATTER REMAINING THE SLOWER/STRONGER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. BRACKETING THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PBL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL MID WINTER NORMS THU/FRI...THEN TREND CHILLIER BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. COULD SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY (DAY 7) AS HINTS OF A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL OVC FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 5 TO 10 KTS THEREAFTER. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...MAINLY AT KRUT. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VT TERMINALS. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT SNOW. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018. NY...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO EQUIPMENT...WGH

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