Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 070932 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 432 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak weather system is currently bringing a light snowfall to the north country and will continue through the morning commute. Accumulations will be light but will create slippery driving conditions. Additional snow showers are in the forecast for Thursday into Friday as colder air begins to moves in to the region. Significant snow accumulations are possible in parts of northern New York. The weekend is expected to be seasonably cold with scattered snow showers each day.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...Weak upper level trof causing Light snow currently across the North Country. Have also noted some observations in the Saint Lawrence valley showing light rain where temperatures have warmed into the lower 30s. By 12z most of this accumulating precipitation will have cleared our CWA. There may be some lingering drizzle, though less significant. Still anticipate development of low level southerly jet, this will help temperatures to raise above freezing by mid morning, already 32 at BTV. Today will remain cloudy and high temperatures will reach the upper 30s to around 40. Tonight our next weather system begins after midnight with some lake effect snow in Northern New York off of Lake Ontario. Have upgrade Lake Effect Snow Watch to an Advisory. Overnight temperatures will be relatively mild with mins only in the 20s, plenty of cloud cover. A strong upper level trof will push through the Great Lakes region overnight. This feature does not have as much synoptic forcing, but southwest flow will become favorable for lake effect off Lake Ontario with cold air advection. Flow will be strong enough for some snow to reach Jay Peak area in Northern Vermont, some upslope enhancement as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 353 AM EST Wednesday...Lake Effect snow event will be ongoing for Thursday and Thursday night. Aforementioned upper level trof will push across Northern New York and New England. Southern Saint Lawrence and Franklin Counties in the Adirondacks as well as Jay Peak area in Northern Vermont will be main areas to have accumulating snow with this Lake Effect snow set up initially. With upper trof pushing through later Thursday the rest of our forecast area will also have some light snow shower activity except for the larger valleys. Snow showers will also become a bit more convective, models continue to show some small CAPE in the higher elevations. Going into Thursday night the flow becomes less favorable for our forecast area and lake effect band will drift South and out of our area. Most of our forecast area will have just a dusting to an inch of snow. the higher elevations of Vermont and Northern New York will have 2-4", and the highest summits from Mount Mansfield to Jay Peak will see closer to 4-6" of snow. Have upgrade Lake Effect Snow Watch to an Advisory. In the advisory area, snow totals will be 4-8" with some isolated higher amounts especially in extreme Southern Saint Lawrence county.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 338 PM EST Tuesday...Overall the outlook for the end of the week and through much the upcoming weekend is a fairly good one with snow showers becoming more scattered through the day on Friday, and high pressure building in over the eastern seaboard for Saturday and Sunday. Upper flow remains out of the west/northwest so unfortunately we`ll likely see more clouds than sun with temps seasonably cool in the 20s for highs and teens to single digits for lows. Next potential system rolls into the area Sunday night, but exactly where the low tracks is still very much in question with global models in disagreement on the depth and strength of an upper trough shifting out of the central CONUS. Currently offering a blended approach with high chances for mainly snow Sunday night through Monday night, but that will certainly change as we dial in the forecast over the next couple of days. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /09Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
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Through 06Z Thursday...Light snow will overspread the TAF locations from SW-NE between 06-09Z with developing IFR vsby (1-2SM) and HIR TRRN OBSCD. Light snow accumulations (1-2") anticipated over a period of 3-4 hrs...some impact expected to airport ground ops for morning pushback due to light snow accumulations. Snow will start to break up into more showery conditions after 14z Wednesday, and temperatures will warm above freezing at all TAF locations. Generally went with "VCSH" in the TAFs, but will see lingering MVFR ceilings for most locations with HIR TRRN OBSCD. South winds may gust 15-20kts in the Champlain Valley after late morning thru afternoon/early evening. Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday... Entire period - frequent MVFR ceilings. Scattered snow showers each day, resulting in localized IFR visibility and ceilings. Maybe extended period of IFR for SLK Wednesday night into Thursday night with frequent snow showers in vicinity of the nrn Adirondacks.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...None. NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Thursday night for NYZ029.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos

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