Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 090721 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 321 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1244 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VERMONT HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORM THREAT JUST ABOUT OVER...BUT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE STATE BY AROUND 06Z. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SLOWLY FALLING DEWPOINTS BEHIND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BUILD ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR WEDS THRU THURS NIGHT...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY BY THURS. LATEST PROGS CONT TO SHOW ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE FLW ALOFT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH...WHICH MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THREAT FOR SHOWERS ON WEDS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BEST SFC BASED CAPE IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CWA WL BE UNDER LLVL CAA ON WEDS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING BTWN 8C (SLV) TO 12C (CT RIVER VALLEY)...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S DACKS TO L/M 70S SLV/NEK/MTNS OF VT...MID/UPPER 70S CPV...TO L80S NEAR VSF. EXPECTING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U40S TO U50S ON WEDS NIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY THURS INTO THURS NIGHT...1024MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS ACRS OUR CWA. THIS ULVL SUPPORT WL COMBINED WITH SOME SFC HEATING/LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE TRRN ON THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES AND RANGE BTWN 6-9C ON THURS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S MTNS TO 70S VALLEYS. A COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON THURS NIGHT WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES...TEMPS WL FALL BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S COLDER VALLEYS TO U40S/L50S CPV/UHI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH BEGINS DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER. ATTENDING SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SIGNALING A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL WITH THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FRONT STALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR THE RE- DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK SEASONAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...BUT ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TRENDING TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS CLEARING AFTER 00-04Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE ABATING AFTER 00Z. PRECIP GONE FOR TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM KRUT TO KMPV EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV. 12Z SUN - 00Z MON...MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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