Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290822 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 422 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WORK WEEK WILL START WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1025 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH AS WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ONLY RESPONDED SLIGHTLY. MOST ARE CRESTING NOW AND FALLING SO EVEN WITH ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY ISSUES. CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. LATEST 3KM HRRR DOES SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME LIKELY POPS THERE, BUT LOWERED EVERYWHERE ELSE AS PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE SURFACE RIDGING AS THE 500MB LOW EXITS EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FILTERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME SUN BREAKING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DIMINISHING WINDS WILL AID FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREAS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AFFECTING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT, RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TEENS, RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCING LIFT AND PROLONGING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 419 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINTENANCE OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND EPISODES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS) DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A DRIER NW FLOW PATTERN SET UP BRIEFLY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY (SATURDAY) PER 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN AT THIS POINT...AS 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AND GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTH COUNTRY TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MSS/SLK...WITH MAINLY MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION BASED ON 0530Z RADAR TRENDS. CONDITIONS TREND VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT (5-8KT) W TO NW WINDS. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER 05-06Z...WITH LIFR ANTICIPATED AT MPV/SLK/MSS AND POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TAF LOCATIONS GIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INTERVALS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRENDING DRIER BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT COULD SEE NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY AM AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. && .CLIMATE...
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AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED. MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT. MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF MIDNIGHT 06/29. AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK IN 1922. AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

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