Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161738 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1252 PM EDT TUESDAY...SLOW CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS NRN NY IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH HAS EXITED EAST OF VERMONT. STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NRN VT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS VERMONT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN...WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 417 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK PREDOMINATELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...TRENDING UNSETTLED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...COLDEST AIR-MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR DROPS INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT 850MB TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C AND AT 925MB JUST A LITTLE ABOVE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS AREA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THIS WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY END THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...BUT PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA INTENSIFIES ENTERING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE SYSTEMS OVERALL PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINKING WE`LL SEE A RELATIVELY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING IN THE 50S...AND A WARM...PLEASANT AND DRY DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PRECIP FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DRIER AT MID-LEVELS COMPARED TO THE GFS SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION...BUT WHEN ARE THEY NOT 7 DAYS OUT. BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS A LIGHT EVENT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25". && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME TODAY AS CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED FROM WEST TO EAST. THINGS SETTLING DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. NY TAF SITES SCATTERED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WINDSHIFT...AND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH VERMONT THROUGH 20Z WITH SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AND WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING. KEPT WINDS AT KBTV 240 DEG...AS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CHANNELING PERSISTS. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR THEN LIFR FOG AND CIGS TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT RAINFALL. CONDITION TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13UTC. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...HANSON

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