Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260538 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1238 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BRING DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE NEW YORK SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1235 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/WINDS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH A BROAD INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING REGARDING FORECAST FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL /SOUTH-CENTRAL VT COUNTIES WITH LESS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 303 PM EST TUESDAY...A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITES. IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...AND THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY THRU MONTPELIER AND INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES (6-10"). THE GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL BE ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES (UP TO 1"/HR) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SNOW TAPER OFF AREAWIDE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WET WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 13:1 FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND MORE LIKE 15:1-18:1 ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL. WE HAVE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON/ERN ADDISON COUNTIES...9AM WED THROUGH 7AM THU. GENERALLY 6-10" OF SNOWFALL...HIGHEST OVER THE SRN GREENS INTO WINDSOR COUNTY. THERE ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 3-6" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS WRN ADDISON/ERN CHITTENDEN/LAMOILLE/ORLEANS/ESSEX COUNTIES IN VERMONT. GENERALLY 1-4" OF SNOWFALL FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH 2-3" EXPECTED IN THE BTV AREA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA. AGAIN...GREATEST TRAVEL ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S...FALLING INTO THE 22-27F RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING. PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH IMPROVING ROAD CONDITIONS THRU THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 344 PM EST TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL...TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...THEN ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPENDING STORM FOR LATER TODAY ARE SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE SNOW REACHES KRUT AROUND 16Z AND SLOWLY SPREADS NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH VFR DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMSS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TREND WILL BE BACK TO MVFR FOR KSLK AFTER 04Z AS THE STORM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR FOR KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 18Z THURSDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 12Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ007-008-010>012-018-019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006-009-017. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...LAHIFF

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