Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151924 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 224 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the region from Canada this afternoon and remains over the area through Monday. Thus drier weather is expected and a warming trend will begin starting Monday. A mixed precipitation event is expected from Tuesday through Wednesday, followed by warmer and drier weather from Thursday through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 109 PM EST Sunday...Surface observations and radar indicating that light snow earlier this morning has come to an end across the region at this time, as a ridge of high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes for the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. Visible satellite loop showing signs of low cloud cover staring to slowly diminish as the high builds east. Have lowered max temperature a few degrees in some locations based on latest surface temperatures. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion from 719 AM EST Sunday...Areal coverage of light snow hanging tough over the area this morning and have gone ahead and continued the higher probability snow through at least mid- morning before tapering off. Looks like a little bit of everything seems to be enhancing the light snow and thus the reason to keep it going longer...especially over the northern Adirondacks and the northern half of Vermont. Otherwise...clouds will continue to linger over a good part of the area through this afternoon with highs in the upper teens to upper 20s. High pressure builds into the region tonight and Monday. As a result...dry weather is expected during this time period. More sunshine is expected on Monday and with developing southerly flow...high temperatures should be several degrees warmer than Sunday with readings getting into the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 205 PM EST Sunday...Generally quiet conditions are expected for Monday night through the morning on Tuesday as surface high pressure persists over the North Country. For Monday night, weak shortwave energy passing north of the area combined with some lingering low level moisture may spark a few snow showers across our northern tier zones, but most of the area should remain dry under partly cloudy skies. Tuesday begins a warming trend that we`ll see through the week with highs pushing well into the 30`s area-wide with southerly flow increasing ahead of our next system. Surface low pressure lifts northward through the Great Lakes region Tuesday and precipitation will spread across our forecast area from Southwest to Northeast during the late afternoon and evening. Strong vorticity advection and deep moisture, therefore expect precipitation to be widespread. Early Wednesday morning a secondary low will form off the New England coast and bulk of the energy shifts to this low center and wraps colder air back into the system. Have continued with previous forecaster`s thinking that will see more of a sleet and snow mix rather than freezing rain...only exception being the Saint Lawrence valley where some low level Northeasterly flow will get trapped. From Tuesday evening through the overnight feel that we`ll see a mix of sleet and snow with some rain at the onset Tuesday afternoon and evening. Best chance for sleet and snow will be across Eastern Vermont and the Eastern Dacks. We`ll probably see more rain in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys, perhaps freezing rain in the Saint Lawrence valley as I previously mentioned. Warm air advection continues Wednesday with original low lifting north of the region and precipitation should change to all rain during this timeframe. As secondary low strengthens later in the day Wednesday and overnight colder air aloft will wrap into the system and precipitation should change over to snow. Still several days away so will iron out the details as we get closer and have better higher resolution data to look at. At this stage, looks like Wednesday morning will have a messy commute.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 205 PM EST Sunday...Wednesday night and Thursday will have lingering Northwesterly flow wrap around moisture and upslope snow showers in the typical spots, probably rain showers in the warmer bigger valleys. A large ridge of surface high pressure as well as an upper level ridge will build over the region from Thursday through the weekend and dry mild weather is expected.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Through 18Z Monday...A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes this afternoon and will remain over the north country through Monday. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. 18z Monday onward...Primarily VFR with surface high pressure through 18Z Tuesday. Next large-scale precipitation system tracks to our west Late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR in widespread precipitation, possibly as early as late Tuesday, but more likely Tuesday night or Wednesday. Thursday and Friday...mainly becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...WGH

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