Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250808 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 408 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 408 AM EDT Wednesday...Relatively quiet weather is expected this morning...but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later today through the first part of tonight...the threat for thunderstorms will exist. The best potential for storms still looks to be north of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In addition...dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty winds. Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by midnight. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night. Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday evening will see some lingering showers as an upper level shortwave continues to affect the North Country. Showers will exit south and east as the shortwave shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Drying trend for the rest of Wednesday night with mild temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region. On Thursday, 925mb temperatures increase to the upper teens to near 20C. Southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany maximum temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will be interrupted by a weakening upper level shortwave moving from west to east Thursday night. This will result in increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The mid-upper level pattern transitions to keep the North Country in the periphery of ridging which looks to allow a chance of convective showers and thunderstorms every day through the weekend. There is the potential for a cold front to move through the region over the weekend, which could lead to a break in precip and slightly cooler temperatures. Overall, much uncertainty exists in the long term due to more zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be above normal throughout the period. && .AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period. clearing skies and light winds across the area overnight. will see some br at times for mpv and rut after soaking rains today left abundant low level moisture. After 12Z, VFR continues with mainly clear skies through 18z. There will be an increasing threat of showers and a few storms after 18Z an have vcsh mentioned at this time. Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday... 06Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure. 12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Neiles

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