Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220701 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 301 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 118 AM EDT TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCALES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY -RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/ CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO LATE SUNDAY. AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO. DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S- M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND -SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING -SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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