Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 010542 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 142 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... AS OF 134 AM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENTLY BACKING UP WFO BTV. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VIRGA AND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND MORE CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP BY SEVERAL HOURS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA. USING THE HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS...THINKING LIGHT RAIN REACHES WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 09-11Z...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z- 14Z..AND INTO MOST OF VT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REALLY GOOD. MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AREA WIDE. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM RAINSHIELD. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME. THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...WASULA/NEILES/TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...WASULA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.