Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191704 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 104 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SUNNY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY REMAIN ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS LAST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS. DURING SATURDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WARMING TREND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE CLOUDS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE AT NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. EXPECT BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE VERMONT WILL SEE RAINY PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY JET STILL IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S...ESPECIALLY IN VERMONT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE 540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z WITH WINDS AT 2000 FEET INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 30-35 KNOTS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. AFTER 12Z...MIXING DEVELOPS AND EXPECT SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT ALL SITES RIGHT THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BROKEN CEILINGS AT 3000 FEET AT KSLK AFTER 13Z AS MOISTURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOOKING AT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST. EVENTUALLY LOOKING AT A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...EVENSON

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