Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 250612 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 112 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1224 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST TRACKING ALONG WELL WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING IN EASTERN VERMONT AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUING IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. LATEST WIND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SUSTANINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN VERMONT, SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND CURRENT POP TRENDS DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S AND NOT MUCH COOLING WITH THE WARM SOUTH WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS AT KMSS WITH GUSTS 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. REST OF SITES WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR. 18Z WEDNESDAY - 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. 18Z THURSDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027- 029>031-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...RJS/SLW MARINE...DEAL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.