Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 012313 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 713 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35 TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS (40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21 Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI: VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

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