Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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255 FXUS61 KBTV 221924 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 324 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to be the dominant weather feature across the region until at least the middle of next week with Jose staying southeast of New England. Dry weather and well above normal temperatures are expected through much of the forecast period with max temperatures approaching record values this weekend. Early morning fog in the favored locations is also possible most days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 134 PM EDT Friday...Models show the mid level high pressure ridge will remain anchored over the Great Lakes with the surface ridge extending across upstate NY into VT. The area should see a little more cloudiness late tonight into Saturday as debris from activity moving across Canada along the north side of the ridge spills into the region. Winds will generally be light and variable or light northerly through the forecast period. Dry weather and warm temperatures will be the rule with patchy morning fog in the usual places. Temperatures will continue above normal with lows mainly in the upper 40s and 50s and highs in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Friday...12z guidance doesn`t indicate anything different than what we`ve had for days. Hot and dry. 925mb temperatures will be 22-23C. We should easily soar well into the 80s, with some valley locations around 90F not out of the question. Ran Hysplit to determine trajectories of where our airmass for Sunday currently is. The answer is Illinois/Iowa/ Missouri region. Guess what, they`ve got temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s. So I can`t see why we won`t set high temperature records all over the place. Probably most noticeable will be an increase in humidity, and when combined with the hot temperatures, we will have Heat Index values in the 90-95F range. You`ll need to take it slow outside, especially if doing something active. Temperatures even at the summits will be in the 70s. Sunday night, clear and calm. Lows only in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with patchy fog a good bet with the humid airmass. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Friday...No changes in the overall forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Both days look hot as 925mb temperatures hover in the 22-24C range. Did adjust upward from guidance blend which seemed just a smidge cool. Both days will feature highs well into the 80s. A spot 90F or so is a good bet. Expecting high temperature records to again be set both days. Dewpoints will still be well into the 60s, so Heat Index values will be into the lower 90s at least. Not going to be comfortable, and again, everyone will need to take it easy to avoid any heat related illness. With high pressure ridging over the top of us, it still appears both days will be dry. Noted the BTV4km WRF model did show a couple of showers popping Monday afternoon. But for now I`m not buying that idea. Models start to deviate Wednesday and beyond, at least with details. The overall scenario does appear the heat will begin to break on Wednesday as an upper trough pushes the ridge out and an associated cold front moves toward the region. Models do differ on timing, but indicate we`ll have enough instability around to have a few t-storms fire up. Have added that to the forecast. Cooler air continues filtering in Thursday (highs upper 60s to mid 70s) and Friday, with 925mb temperatures by Friday closer to 5C -- which means we may end the week at or slightly below normal for highs! Kept with the model blend for 20-40% rain chances both Thursday and Friday given greater disagreement in timing of when the Wednesday front departs and whether another upper trough that the ECMWF shows for Friday will actually exist and spark a few showers. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with the exception of overnight IFR/LIFR cig/vsby at KMPV. Northerly winds 5-10 kts during the day will diminish overnight. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23 to Tue Sep 26 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/23 87 / 1895 84 / 1964 83 / 1965 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NRR NEAR TERM...NRR SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...NRR CLIMATE...BTV

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