Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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246 FXUS61 KBTV 221421 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1021 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon as a low pressure system off the coast of the DelMarVa peninsula slowly pushes northeast towards the New England coastline. Temperatures will be near normal to end the weekend and then trend warmer by the middle of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1014 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast playing out pretty well. Light rain out of mid level cloud deck is becoming more spotty, and current POPs show a downward trend through mid day. Temperatures are tricky with the cloud cover, and found some bias corrected grids that captures cooler air over Lake Champlain, while warming Northeast Kingdom into the 70s with a little clearing going on up there at the moment. 925mb and 825mb temps support max temps in the mid 70s, however cloud cover should keep temperatures from realizing full potential and went a little cooler. Left precip forecast alone with chances ramping back up in the afternoon with some diurnal heating and destabilization. As the low pressure system off the coast the mid Atlantic continues to to increase in strength later today, expect the flow aloft to turn more north east and enhance our low to mid level moisture. Concurrently, a surface front will drop south out of Canada and provide the forcing for scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. The chance for thunder is mostly over the Adirondacks and central Vermont northwards as we will see some marginal instability with surface based cape values of 200-400 J/kg and lifted indexes going negative. The SPC SREF calibrated thunderstorm progs have been quite consistent with the idea of 20-30% chance for thunder this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 237 AM EDT Sunday...Vertically stacked low pressure system drifts east of the Delmarva peninsula during the day Monday, with newd extending trough along the New England coast remaining in place. It appears that overall movement/shift of this system to the east will allow for drier air to advect into the North Country on northerly low-level flow. As such, only included a slight chance of showers across Rutland/Windsor counties for Monday afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny skies (more sun north) along with 850mb temps around +10C will yield pleasant afternoon temps with highs 74-78F in most areas...and dewpoints dropping into the mid-upr 40s for much of the northern 2/3rds of the region. The vertically stacked low pressure system begins a slow northward turn later Monday night, reaching an area east of NJ by daybreak Tuesday. This should result in increasing mid-upr level cloud cover across central and s-central VT during the overnight period Monday night. Maintained just a slight chance of showers across Orange/Windsor/Rutland Counties on nrn periphery of this system. Increasing clouds across VT will keep lows on the mild side, generally in the lower 50s. May see some mid-upr 40s across nrn NY where thinner and less extensive cloud cover is forecast. The closed 500mb low tracks nnewd across sern MA on Tuesday. System is equivalent barotropic in nature, and likely will be associated with bands of showers around the w/nw periphery rather than broader zone of stratiform precipitation. Have included PoPs 40-60 percent attm, with precipitation amts 0.1-0.2" for most sections of VT, with lighter amts across nrn NY further removed from the low center. May see some locally heavier amts given PW values reaching 1.2" per 00z GFS, and potential instability around 500 J/kg leading to a few embedded tstms. Some of the tstm potential for depend on overall extent of clouds and whether or not PBL heating/destabization can occur across the region. We will continue to monitor. Deep layer NE flow would result in slow w-sw storm motions if embedded convection were to develop. Highs on Tuesday generally expected in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 237 AM EDT Sunday...Upper low departs east of New England on Wednesday, resulting in drier conditions and a transition toward a warmer and more humid overall weather pattern for the bulk of the extended forecast period. There has been an increase in run-to-run variability in the GFS and ECMWF...making daily details a bit uncertain. Anticipate highs Wednesday in the mid-upr 70s with just a slight chance of a late aftn/eve shower. Building heights and strengthening SW low-level flow should yield highs into the lower 80s for some valley locations Thursday/Friday/Saturday. Will likely also see a gradual increase in humidity with dewpoints getting into the lower 60s by Friday into Saturday. With air mass becoming more moist/unstable, PoPs continue generally 30-40% each day. && .AVIATION /14Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 12Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period with broken mid to high cloud deck currently producing light rain and drizzle across central Vermont. The light rain currently is producing MVFR at MPV out of a 8,000 ft ceiling. These light showers look like they will continue to persist through the morning before a frontal boundary brings stronger dynamics and convection with isolated thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Best confidence in prevailing showers remains over RUT and MPV so those are the only locations with prevail precip however VCSH has been mentioned at all sites but MSS. Winds generally light south to southwesterly before turning northwesterly late in the afternoon with slight variation per terrain/lake breeze influences. Outlook 12Z Monday through Thursday... 06z Mon - 12z Tue: VFR/high pressure 12z Tue - 00z Thu: Mainly VFR with chance of showers in eastern Vermont leading to brief MVFR visibility restrictions. 00z Thursday onward: VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal/Hanson NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Deal is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.