Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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025 FXUS61 KBTV 181729 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1229 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The North Country will remain on the northern periphery of high pressure today and Friday. Developing south to southwest winds will bring about a gradual moderation in temperatures, but also considerable low cloudiness associated with moisture from the eastern Great Lakes. The clouds will be most prevalent across the Adirondacks, St. Lawrence Valley, and far northern Vermont. A few snow showers are possible tonight as a weak upper level disturbance tracks from west to east across northern New York into northern New England. Generally quiet weather is expected over the weekend, and temperatures on Saturday are expected to reach the lower 40s in many locations. A frontal system and surface low pressure passing to our west Monday night into Tuesday is expected to bring mixed wintry precipitation and a period of plain rain to the region, before somewhat cooler temperatures arrive for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 940 AM EST Thursday...Increased pops through late morning/early afternoon across the southern SLV/Dacks and into portions of the Champlain Valley/central VT to account for weak lake effect snow showers advecting east across these areas. Models are not handling current light activity well, though most recent HRRR output has a so-so handle on things showing modest WSW transport flow of 20-30 kts at 925 mb so leaned in its direction. Any acculumations will remain light and generally less than 1 inch save perhaps areas to the west of KSLK in portions of far southern Franklin and St. Lawrence Counties in NY. The rest of the forecast regarding temperatures and general cloud cover remain on track. Have a great day. Prior discussion... Tonight: A quick-moving northern stream shortwave trough - evident in IR imagery across the arrowhead of Minnesota - will shift across nrn NY and nrn New England during the overnight hours. Will see increased cloud cover areawide with a few snow showers possible, especially across the nrn Adirondacks and nrn Greens, where a coating to 0.5" snowfall is possible. Mentioned just a slight chance of snow showers in valley locations, with limited moisture availability with this shortwave trough. Overnight lows generally in the low- mid teens, except around 20F in the St. Lawrence Valley. Friday: Quiet and a bit milder, with valley highs 31-34F in most areas. Continued swly low-level flow regime, so will continue to deal with considerable stratus associated with moisture from the ern Great Lakes. Daytime sfc winds generally S-SW 5-10 mph. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 329 AM EST Thursday...Rather quiet for the short term with an upper level trough passing to the north of the CWA Friday night into Saturday. With that, just an increase in cloud cover along the international border as well as a slight chance of a snow shower, but not much else to speak of to start the weekend. Winds still look to be gusty during the day as southerly flow begins to pick up, but right now, it still looks to be sub- advisory level. Temperatures will to trend upwards with warm air advection with overnight lows in the 20s and upper teens in the eastern VT counties. Saturday highs look to be in the low 40s across the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 329 AM EST Thursday...The second half of the weekend continues to look to be quiet with slightly low high temperatures for Sunday as flow shifts to the northwest. Outside of a shower or two in the higher terrain, the weekend looks to be pretty uneventful. This precedes a rather active early part of next week as fairly deep low will move across the Great Lakes and into Ontario sometime Tuesday. Models continue to disagree on timing, with the GFS still running about 12 hours ahead of the ECMWF, but the overall idea is the same, a secondary surface low develops along a cold front and rides up over our region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. With this secondary low, that means the warmer air at lower levels will have a harder time of really coming in force and scouring out the low level cold air. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a widespread mixed precipitation event, with a general light snow to start late on Monday, a good amount of sleet and perhaps areas of freezing rain in the middle, and ending as snow later Tuesday or Tuesday night. Have continued as the previous shift did and used a mix of the warmer GFS and colder ECMWF to help determine precipitation type. Still, this far out locking into particular location for sleet/freezing rain is a bit premature as the forecast will continue to change until we get closer to the event. Still, on the bright side, with this looking to be much cooler than last week`s event, hydro looks to be less of a concern but still bears monitoring. Beyond this system, Wednesday and beyond look rather quiet, though a snow shower or two are not out of the question. Look for highs in the long term in the 30s with Tuesday touching the lower 40s in the valleys and overnight lows in the 20s to teens. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...A mix of MVFR/VFR expected over the next 24 hours. Scattered flurries expected across northern terminals through 00Z. Upper disturbance to pass through the region overnight through mid-morning on Friday. Scattered flurries/shsn possible with this feature with highest confidence at KSLK where a period of IFR has been offered in the 06-12Z time frame. Winds generally light and less than 6 kts through the period except at KMSS/KSLK where southwesterly flow from 5-10 kts will be more likely this afternoon, and again by Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Likely FZRA, Chance RA, Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely RA, Likely FZRA, Likely SN, Likely PL. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Likely FZRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.