Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021927 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 327 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL RH HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SUMMER FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN BOTH MPV AND SLK WHICH SHOULD ENABLE BOTH SITES TO DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. WITH ALL OF THE ANTECEDENT RAIN, FOG WILL LIKELY SET IN. CURRENTLY I EXPECT TIMING OF FOG TO SET IN BY 8Z IN SLK AND AT 7Z FOR MPV. ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT WITH DAYBREAK THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND SO BY 11Z EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL SITES. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL

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