Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 162105 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 405 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS JUST REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING...EXCEPT IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AT 32F. ELSEWHERE IN THE BURLINGON FORECAST AREA... TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH POCKETS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT BUT LATEST FORECAST HAS UP TO A TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOW AND SLEET MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK...ACUMULATING AN INCH OR TWO. THIS COUPLED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION AROUND DAYBREAK INDICATES THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ANY FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT KMSS AND KSLK THIS EVENING... AND OVERSPREADS ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KMSS...KSLK AND KMPV. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SITES SHOULD SEE MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALY NEAR TERM...ALY SHORT TERM...ALY LONG TERM...ALY AVIATION...ALY

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