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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE
LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN
RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY
ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT
TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY
SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID-
WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE
NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY
OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS
MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND
THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE
USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US.

ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY
LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO AREA TERMINALS. EXCEPTION AT KMSS TERMINAL WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY FROM
015-020 AGL. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 5-12 KTS. AFTER 22Z
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WITH A
GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR AND INCREASING CHC OF
FLURRIES/SHSN. FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OCCUR IN THE 05-10Z TIME FRAME
WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH