Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 292356 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 756 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 742 PM EDT SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS EXPECT THE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAM MODELS THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STAY ALONG IN THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF BOTH NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THE NAM12 AND NAM4 SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST GRASP OF THIS AS BOTH SHOW A BIT OF WEAK VORTICITY RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORCING FOR THESE SHOWERS AS THEY STAY IN THE NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND THUS I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. I AGREED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER REGARDING FOG OVERNIGHT IN THAT THE LOWEST LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DRY AND WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE BROUGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS BUT THE NET RESULTS WERE COSMETIC IN NATURE. HAVE A GOOD EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...POSITIVE TILT 700MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTING LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION REACHING SERN ONTARIO AND NRN NY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE AND NAM/RAP MODEL RH TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. UPSTREAM RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT. PBL IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...AND WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS MAINLY SPRINKLES TO JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING MID-UPR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...AND ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...700-500MB TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES VERMONT ON SUNDAY WITH GENERAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...BUT ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPR 50S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO NERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THE TREND FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS/WARMING 850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. 500MB RIDGE BECOMES QUITE PRONOUNCED/AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY...PER 12Z GFS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOWS MAINLY UPR 50S/LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG)...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S IN MOST SPOTS ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 327 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR MAYBE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS BKN-OVC100 WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN. KMSS HAD 10SM -RA AND RADAR PICKING UP LIGHT RETURNS. GIVEN HIGH CLOUD BASES AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO VIS LEFT -RA OUT OF TAF FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MID CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OFF AND DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL TAKE OVER TO PRODUCE SCT040-050 BASED ON BUFKIT LCL HEIGHTS. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST LESS THAN 10 KTS AFT 14-15Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF WAVE PASSAGE. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 18Z MON-00Z TUE. 00Z TUE-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...HANSON

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