National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 141731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST REGION...WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEFORE
THIS SYSTEM BRING STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BY THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1229 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
OFFERING BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST...AND 75 TO 80 FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST (LOCALLY COOLER ALONG LK CHAMPLAIN). WATCHING
DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OFF TO OUR WEST AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH PBL INSTABILITY IS WEAK...HIGH ENOUGH
SHEAR THAT IF ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP THEY`D HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR ISOLD STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS. SAW A BRIEF SHOWER PASS
TORONTO IN THE PAST HOUR WITH A GUST TO 50KT. ENJOY YOUR
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN CORE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA OVERNGT DUE TO FRONTS SLOW
PROGRESSION WITH RIDGE OFFSHORE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIP THRU 12Z...KEEPING
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IN AS WELL. WITH STRONG RIDGE
OFFSHORE...GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CWA TO SEE STEADY BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40-45MPH THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT. QPF THRU 12Z TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 0.10" TO 0.50"...WITH HIGHEST AMTS OVER N NY. FOR
OVERNGT LOWS...MODEST DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO CLDS/WAA
REMAINING INTACT W/ TEMPS IN THE 50S.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED THRU THE DAY AS FRONT TRUDGES
THRU THE REGION...WITH A SLOW TAPERING GOING INTO THE TUES NGT
TIME FRAME. AREAS IN HIR TRRN IN N NY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO -SW
AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS DOWN ON SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW. FRONT MVS OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIP ENDING BY 12Z
WED. SOME LINGERING PRECIP STILL FOR SOME OF WED MORNING HRS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TO BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.
OVERALL FOR PRECIP STEADY RAINS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1.00-1.25" OF RAIN TUES/TUES NGT. WITH SNOWFALL
BEGINNING FROM WEST TO EAST ON CAA IN HIR TRRN...1-2" COULD
ACCUMULATE...WITH OTHER LOCALES SEEING D-1" POTENTIAL. WITH
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS...HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH.
OVERALL HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TUESDAY..DOWN TO THE 30S/40S
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AIR REGIME CHANGE BEHIND FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S/30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SYSTEM EXISTS ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...THUS STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK. CRNT ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR
CWA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WIND GUSTS BTWN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THESE WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TWD SUNSET AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEY
SITES OF MPV/SLK. OTHERWISE...CRNT RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS ACRS
WESTERN NY THIS AFTN...WHICH WL IMPACT MSS BTWN 21-01Z AND SLK
BTWN 22Z-02Z THIS EVENING WITH VIS BTWN 4-6SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST BTWN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE. THINKING PRECIP
WL STAY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NOT IMPACT CPV AND POINTS EAST. GIVEN
GOOD BL MIXING ALSO NOT EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

ON TUE A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT WL APPROACH THE SLV BY 12Z AND BE
INTO THE CPV BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
(PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 40 TO 45 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRNT WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF MODERATE TO
SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLVL WS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.
ALSO...THINKING MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA PRECIP...WITH SLK MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW BY 18Z TUES.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WL BE ACRS THE CPV AROUND 18Z TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BTWN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AT BTV/MPV/RUT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE FROPA PRECIP WITH A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...WITH VIS LESS THAN 3 MILES. RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST BTWN 18Z (SLK)-00Z (MPV) WITH ADDITIONAL
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON TUES EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFT 06Z WEDS WITH VFR RETURNING BY WEDS SFC HIGH
PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WEDS INTO THURS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN SEASONABLY
HIGH AS RAINFALL AND CONTINUED MODEST SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE
RUNOFF. WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.
WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH
CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP
RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN SOME CASES INTO MINOR
FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG