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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 041744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY WITH AN
AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1202 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP
WELL AT THIS POINT, WITH ONLY MODEST TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPS WITH
THIS UPDATE. SKIES CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THAT WAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S FOR TODAY, UNLIKELY TO CLIMB
MUCH FURTHER GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWLY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND RETURN OF
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY...AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AND GENERALLY 20-25F FOR FRIDAY. STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY YIELD SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SEE A
S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HRS. IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...COULD SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE FRIDAY
AFTN. ALL IN ALL, A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE
FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME
TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S.

THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK
HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z
THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS
PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN
AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF