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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 081244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TODAY...CLEARING THE REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE QUICK MOVING LOWS IN SUCCESSION LATE SUNDAY AND
ON MONDAY. BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
LOW TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 608 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST
TEMPS/CLD COVER FOR AREA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS ITS PUSH INTO
THE AREA. WINDS SLOWLY SWITCHING IN THE ST LAW VALLEY AND SHOULD
PUT THE CAP ON ANY MORE RISES IN TEMPS WITH A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND
THRU THE DAY. REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SIMILAR RESULT THRU THE
MORNING HRS AS FROPA OCCURS. AREAS IN E VT STILL 10-18 DEGREES
COOLER THAN REST OF CWA ATTM DUE TO LACK OF SOUTHERLY WIND PUSH
OVER GREENS. THAT AREA SHOULD SEE THEIR WARM UP THRU THE MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFTS FROM SSW TO MORE WESTERLY AND CREATE DOWN SLOPING
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HRS. WILL CONTINUE POPS IN FORECAST ATTM.
REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW SCT LIGHT PRECIP WITH TREND TO
CONTINUE SO HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES FOR UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE ONTARIO REGION. TEMPS
DO RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN EASTERN VT AND PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS...UP TO THE U20S TO MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE CVLY/SLV. AREAS
SEEING HIR TEMPS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS DESPITE
INCR MID/HIGH CLDS FROM FRONT TO THE WEST. WITH TEENS/20S BEHIND
FRONT IN CENTRAL ONTARIO...MANY AREAS HERE MAY SEE MORNING HIGHS
AS TEMPS FALL WITH FROPA THIS AFTNOON. IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY MID/HIGH CLDS OVER SPREAD REST OF CWA THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL GO A FEW DEGREES BLW GUIDANCE TODAY. WITH UPPER FLOW MORE
WESTERLY COMPARED TO SSW SFC FLOW...PRECIP ALONG FRONT IS SCT W/
MDLS SUGGESTING BEST DYNAMICS NEAR LOW TO OUR NORTH AND ACROSS MID
ATLANTIC REGION IN WARMER AREA. AS A RESULT WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE
TO SL CHANCE POPS OVER AREA FOR LIGHT -SW AND EVEN POSSIBLE --RW
IN SPOTS. BEST CHANCE S FOR -SW OVER HIR TRRN WHERE 0.5"-1.0"
POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE TO NONE IN VALLEY LOCALES. PRECIP WILL TAPER
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY GOING INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP BEHIND FRONT. ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUM TO BE FOCUSED OVER HIR
TRRN NW FACING SLOPES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL AFT SUNSET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE/CLRING SKIES TO BE FACTOR OVERNGT. STAYING CLOSE TO MDL
GUIDANCE AS SOME LINGERING CLDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR TOTAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOOKING FOR A RANGE OF 10-15F IN CVLY DOWN TO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST SATURDAY...FOR SUNDAY ON THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS OFF THIS TIME FRAME PROVIDING AREA A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BLW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS RIDGE
OVERHEAD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES...WHICH MDLS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING OVER PAST FEW DAYS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. BOTH ARE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU
THE AREA...BUT CURRENT TRACK DOES SUGGEST LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR
ENTIRE AREA FOR EACH SYSTEM. BOTH OF THESE SHOULD GIVE CWA A RANGE
OF 1-2" WITH HIR AMTS OVER HIR TRRN AND LOWER IN VALLEY LOCALES.
SLIGHTLY WARMER SCENARIO FOR MONDAY FOR HIGHS AS CWA WILL SEE
SMALL TIME FRAME OF SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD
BRING TEMPS WARMER THAN SUNDAY. OVERNGT LOWS SUN NGT WILL RANGE
FROM 10-20F...WITH SOME OUTLIER SINGLE NUMBERS OVER HIR TRRN OF NE
VT/DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM EST SATURDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL DO NOT PHASE THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AND BOTH TAKE A SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND TAKE IT WELL SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK
(40N 70W) WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE REGION WOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL
TAKES MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS IT INTO THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING
SNOW INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA. JUST
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED AND MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING PROBABILITIES ARE LOW WITH THIS. SO...HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE TAF FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/RJS