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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 061959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THIS EVENING TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
NORTH. COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 254 PM EST FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWED FOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED. A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A
POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF VERMONT WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED BY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS YOU HEAD
FURTHER NORTH. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 254 PM EST FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY DURING
SATURDAY TO -13 TO -15C BY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW
EXPECTED TO BE FALLING ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO BY DAYBREAK...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION TO FOLLOW. LOOK FOR A RATHER MESSY COMMUTE MONDAY
MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG WARM AND COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS SNOW THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO TRANSITION CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS TO RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PRECIP COULD STAY ALL SNOW OR
HAVE A SLIGHT MIX WITH RAIN...BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE FRONT MAKES IT. DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
RAIN THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED SO
HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...ATTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST WITH FALLING
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS TURNING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW...THOUGH
WILL BE DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. OVERALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY COULD SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SO STAY TUNED THIS WEEKEND AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...COLDER TEMP PROFILES RETURN AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST. WE`LL BE UNDER FAST WEST/SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH SUPPORTING SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS HERE AND THERE FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT NO REAL BIG ACCUMULATIONS ARE ON THE HORIZON...SIGH.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THOUGH OF POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS ALONG A
MODEST ARCTIC FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CERTAINLY WAY TO FAR OUT TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A MESOSCALE PHENOMENON. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE
NUMBERS...ALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING KMPV AND KRUT.
GENERALLY CIGS AROUND 10KFT ACROSS ALL SITES TODAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z BEFORE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH LOWERS CIGS
FROM KSLK SOUTHEASTWARD. ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOULD ONLY TRAVEL AS FAR
NORTH AS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ON/OFF
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AT KMPV. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KRUT WHERE
IFR VSBY/CIGS ARE LIKELY 03-11Z...IMPROVING THEREAFTER. AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...ALL SITES VFR UNDER BKN-OVC LOW/MID CLOUDS AND WNW FLOW.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF