Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041744 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1244 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY WITH AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1202 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, WITH ONLY MODEST TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE. SKIES CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THAT WAY. WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S FOR TODAY, UNLIKELY TO CLIMB MUCH FURTHER GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND RETURN OF SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY...AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS ACROSS VERMONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AND GENERALLY 20-25F FOR FRIDAY. STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY YIELD SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SEE A S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HRS. IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...COULD SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE FRIDAY AFTN. ALL IN ALL, A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD SHORT-TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AREA-WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING,AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND BELOW INCOMING DRY AIR ALOFT SO THINK SCT-BKN VFR DECK HANGS AROUND UNTIL THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WINS OUT TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z...CLEAR TO SCT CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, GUSTY FROM THE WEST- SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE GUSTS PEAK AROUND 20-25KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH REMAIN AROUND 8-12KTS INTO THURSDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR UNDER INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z SATURDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS SEVERAL SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...LAHIFF

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