Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 031423 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850 TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE PATTERN. SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW

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