Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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737 FXUS61 KBTV 010237 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1037 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/... AS OF 1031 PM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VIRGA AND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND MORE CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP BY SEVERAL HOURS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA. USING THE HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS...THINKING LIGHT RAIN REACHES WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 09-11Z...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z- 14Z..AND INTO MOST OF VT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REALLY GOOD. MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AREA WIDE. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND STRATUS. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

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