Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 192330 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 730 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. LOOKING FOR WARMER...WINDIER...AND WETTER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 730 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTH) OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ALOFT...NOT AS MUCH AT THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS READINGS WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN WARM THERMAL RESPONSE THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LEVEL. STUCK CLOSE TO LATEST RAP 500 MB RH PROGS WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT PROGRESSION RATHER WELL THIS EVENING. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN ERN VT...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DACKS...AND SOLIDLY IN THE 40S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 336 PM EDT FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SO WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...THE WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR IT TO FEEL THAT WARM WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND EVEN SOME 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY SLOW THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION DOWN. CAN SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT THE STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL LATER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ON SUNDAY FOR HIGHS TO GET RIGHT BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...SO SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 336 PM EDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT...BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO EXIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z WITH WINDS AT 2000 FEET INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 30-35 KNOTS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. AFTER 12Z...MIXING DEVELOPS AND EXPECT SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT ALL SITES RIGHT THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BROKEN CEILINGS AT 3000 FEET AT KSLK AFTER 13Z AS MOISTURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR-MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING IN...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOOKING AT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE RAIN MOVING IN WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST. EVENTUALLY LOOKING AT A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE... STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 5 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON MARINE...EVENSON

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