Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 202015 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 315 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Quiet weather is expected through Sunday night with variably cloudy skies and only an outside chance of a stray sprinkle or flurry. A storm system will affect the area Monday into Tuesday with a variety of mixed precipitation and rain, before colder more seasonal temperatures return by the middle to later portions of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 PM EST Saturday...Mild temperatures continue across the region this afternoon as broad west to southwesterly flow persists between distant low pressure to our north and east and subtropical high pressure draped across the southeastern seaboard offshore to near Bermuda. Highs to generally top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s which is some 10 to 15 degrees above mid-winter norms. By tonight we`re still watching a cold front dropping southward from southern Ontario/Quebec province in association with the aforementioned low. This is a rather moisture- starved boundary and with models somewhat bearish on precipitation chances/QPF I`ve only offered a pre-frontal 20-40 pop for a few snow showers or sprinkles/flurries through midnight or so across the north before values begin to wane. The actual front should sink south into the area in the 100-600 am time frame with winds trending light northerly to near calm by sunrise Sunday. Low temperatures mainly in the 20s to locally near 30 south. By Sunday into Sunday night the boundary essentially trends stationary to our immediate south with variable clouds and once again, perhaps a stray flurry across the north over time. Model- averaged 925 mb thermal profiles cool by some 3-5C supporting highs around 30 along the international border and ranging through the 30s elsewhere. With abundant clouds overnight lows to hold on the mild side by late January standards and range mainly through the 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 420 AM EST Saturday...Westerly flow aloft will prevail Sunday night into most of Monday. Perhaps there will be a little bit of light snow up along the Canadian border Sunday night...but most of the area will remain dry. Large high over eastern Canada will allow for some colder air to move into parts of the region on Monday...especially near the Canadian border. Highs on Monday will generally be in the 30s...with upper 20s near the Canadian border. Warm front will move into the region from the southwest late in the day on Monday and bring some rain or snow to parts of the area...with a little light mixed precipitation across parts of northern New York. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 420 AM EST Saturday...Best potential for mixed precipitation/icing will occur Monday night into Tuesday. At this time thermal profile supports the idea of mixed precipitation for northern New York with mainly snow over Vermont through the first of the night before low level warming takes over across northern New York and most of Vermont. The Northeast Kingdom of Vermont will be the last to changeover and thus some icing may also be concentrated in this area. This area and the Saint Lawrence Valley/western portions of the northern Adirondacks should see at least a tenth of an inch of ice. Would not be surprised for a number of areas in Vermont to pick up an inch of two of snow before a change to mixed precipitation and/or rain. Most areas will ultimately see rain on Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Precipitation probabilities Monday night and Tuesday should essentially be categorical...but there may be a brief break in the precipitation late Monday night as area gets in the warm sector. Shortwave trough and cold front exit the region Tuesday night...but we still stay in the main upper trough. Colder air moves in so precipitation will essentially be snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as highs will only be in the 20s to lower 30s. Looks like we trend toward a northwest flow aloft pattern for Thursday and Friday. Should be relatively dry...but below normal temperatures are expected. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...BKN/OVC mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with cigs mainly from 035-050 AGL. Exception at KSLK terminal where MVFR cigs in the 018-025 AGL range will prevail. KRUT terminal will see the BKN/OVC cigs arrive after 21Z with mainly SKC until then. Weak cold front to drop into the region in the 06-10Z time frame tonight with little fanfare as modestly gusty southwest winds to 20 kts abate by this evening and trend light northerly or near calm by 12Z Sunday. Widely scattered light shsn/flurries possible here and there along the frontal boundary tonight, but paucity of coverage warrants no mention in the terminal forecasts at this time. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN, Definite PL, Definite RA, Definite FZRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Definite FZRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...JMG

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