Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 040835 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 335 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY WITH AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN BRIEFLY IN PLACE TODAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PACIFIC ORIGIN AIRSTREAM MAKING A RARE APPEARANCE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER W-WSWLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY EVENING/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SOUTH OF NEXT THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON GUSTY S- SW SURFACE WINDS (LOCALLY UP TO 35 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME CONTINUED MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE 1-3" OF SNOW THAT FELL DURING THE 00-04Z PERIOD WEDNESDAY. STILL A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLD FLURRY OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATING PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVELS MIX OUT. HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ALREADY GETTING SOME LOW-LEVEL CAA UPSTREAM...BUT INSOLATIONAL HEATING SHOULD OFFSET FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WILL SEE TEMPS BRIEFLY REACH 35-40F RANGE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL. THE WSWLY FLOW WILL HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. P-GRADIENT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT NWLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA AND RETURN OF SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY...AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS ACROSS VERMONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AND GENERALLY 20-25F FOR FRIDAY. STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MAY YIELD SOME MID-UPR CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL SEE A S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HRS. IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...COULD SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH MID-LATE FRIDAY AFTN. ALL IN ALL, A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD SHORT-TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES, AS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE L20S-L30S AND WARM INTO THE U20S TO NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WARMING TO GENERAL TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 20S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS WITH MONDAY/S DISTURBANCE AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SLEET POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z, ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMSS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO THE DAYTIME WITH FUNNELING UP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY PRODUCING GUSTS OF 25-35KTS AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 10Z, WHEN GUSTS DECREASE TO 20-25KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND GUST AROUND 20-27 KTS. CEILINGS LIFT OR SCATTER OUT TO VFR AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPTION BEING SLK WHERE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT MAY LEAD TO CONTINUED BROKEN MVFR STRATUS THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HEADING INTO EVENING, WINDS WILL DECREASE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5-10KTS. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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