Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241815 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 115 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1220 PM EST SATURDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS OF THIS UPDATE. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A WEAK BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AND THE SPRINGFIELD OB IS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SO I CONTINUED THE INCREASE IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE 1-2 INCHES PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WORK OUT JUST FINE SO I LEFT THAT ALONE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA LOOK IN SHAPE TO WARM IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BTV ALREADY UP TO 34 AND PBG AT 32. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT ALONE AS IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID- WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US. ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM CANADA. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM 04Z-12Z SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM 07Z-14Z SUNDAY ACROSS VERMONT. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS FROM 06Z-14Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...WGH EQUIPMENT...WGH

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