Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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182 FXUS61 KBTV 210825 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 325 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A quiet end to the weekend is expected with just a slight chance of a sprinkle or flurry. Late Monday into Tuesday brings the next significant chance of precipitation in the form of a wintry mix. While not as pronounced as last week`s system, with ice jams in place close monitoring will be needed for the early part of next week. By mid week colder and more seasonal temperatures return across the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 322 AM EST Sunday...Quiet weather continues today with cooler but still above seasonal normal temperatures and increasing cloud cover as weak cold front slides south across the North Country before going stationary to our south. As the front shifts south, associated moisture will bring increased cloud cover and a chance of a sprinkle or flurry, especially across the higher terrain, but accumulation will be minimal at best. Models still show cooling of 3-4C from Saturday which will lead to high temperatures today in the mid 30s. Sunday night will continue to be quiet with continuing increased cloud cover ahead of the next system coming in later in the day Monday. Overnight lows will continue to seasonably mild with lows in the mid to lower 20s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EST Saturday...Warm front will move into the Northern New York and Vermont area from the southwest late in the day on Monday and bring some rain or snow to parts of the area...with a little light mixed precipitation across parts of northern New York. Temperatures on Monday will reach the 30s, with some upper 30s in the Saint Lawrence valley and mid 30s in the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will be nearly steady or even rising Monday night into Tuesday. By midnight mixed precipitation should lift north of the area and we will then be in a dry slot until the very early morning hours on Tuesday. Rain is expected from 09z-21 Tuesday, with the heaviest totals across Southern and Eastern Vermont. Most of the precipitation will be out ahead of the cold front with drier colder air moving in afterwards. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday should be well into the 40s, then drop back into the 20s following cold frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Saturday...Some snow showers may linger behind departing cold front into the day on Wednesday, especially across our Northern zones. We are then expecting dry and cold weather from Wednesday night through Saturday with high pressure over the region. Thursday looks to be the coldest day of the extended period, then warming headed into the weekend. Another system approaches for next weekend, tracking west of us so will be another thing to watch as we get closer to next Sun. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions are trending towards MVFR as weak cold front and associated ribbon of enhanced moisture moves into the North Country. In addition to lower cigs to mvfr levels this boundary might bring a few scattered rain/snow showers through 12Z. Ceilings will improve briefly at the valley locations after 15Z back to VFR before dropping back to MVFR ahead of the next system coming in Monday evening. Winds will shift NW at 05-10 knots before going light and variable after 12Z. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN, Chance FZRA, Chance PL. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely FZRA, Likely RA, Chance PL. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SHRA, Definite FZRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Banacos/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Taber/Verasamy

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