Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170845 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 445 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Generally a persistence forecast expected for the start of the week as a ridge of high pressure resides over the region. Dry and warm weather expected during the daytime, but light winds and clear skies will lead to nocturnal fog, which could be locally dense Monday morning across the valleys of central and eastern Vermont, and within the northern Adirondack region. The next chance for precipitation will be during the mid-week, but concentrated to the south and east.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 445 AM EDT Sunday...Patchy fog will dissipate during the mid to late morning hours, much like yesterday. Weather will be benign during the day as high pressure remains over the region. Expect some daytime cumulus cloud development, as general subsidence regime aloft keeping cumulus moderate over the ridgetops. Above normal temperatures expected today...possibly record breaking (See Climate section of AFD)...as mostly clear skies over the valleys result in surface temperatures reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon. Sunday night will see another chance for fog development in the favored valley locations. Temperatures will again creep up slightly, with morning lows expected to range from the mid 50s to low 60s. On Monday, 500mb heights will gradually be decreasing as moisture increases from easterly flow ahead of Jose. The additional moisture will begin to interact with a trough advancing through the Great Lakes region and lead to increased cloud cover across the North Country. Warm air will remain over the North Country, but increased clouds expect to result in max temperatures in the 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...Ridge axis across northern New York and northern New England will narrow during the period in response to expected nwd motion of Hurricane Jose off the mid- Atlantic coast, and 700-500mb shortwave trough shearing out to our NW across the Great Lakes and sern Ontario. Despite the "squeeze play", it does appear that a wedge of relatively dry and subsident conditions will hold in place across the North Country. Have indicated continued above normal temps. Lows Monday night should hold in the upr 50s to lower 60s and relatively high dewpoints should yield some patchy fog development during the pre-dawn hours in favored locations. For Tuesday, may see an increase in mid-upper level clouds associated with Jose, and carried just 15-25 PoPs for possible rain showers on the outer fringes of the system reaching s-central VT. Should see highs ranging form the mid 70s across ern/s-central VT with greater coverage of clouds...to the lower 80s across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys with better prospects for sunshine. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest track guidance on Hurricane Jose. It still appears some fringe effects of Jose are possible, mainly in the form of rain showers reaching nwd into s-central VT during the daylight hours Wednesday. The 00Z ECMWF shifted 60-80NM wwd in its track of Jose, but still only lifts the system to 40N and no further. The 00Z GFS was a bit closer to previous runs with the center of circulation passing just south and east of the 40N 70W benchmark. Again, not expecting any direct impact to our region, but carried 20-30 PoPs Wednesday, highest across s-central VT for possible nrn fringe of rain showers. High temperatures on Wednesday expected mainly in the 74-78F range with prospect of variably cloudy conditions (especially south). Strong mid-upper level ridge axis should reestablish itself newd across the nern Conus and sern Canada toward the end of the week. As such, we return to a dry forecast with temperatures well above seasonal averages for mid-late September. Should see highs in the upr 70s to lower 80s in most valley locations, which are 10-15deg above the 30-yr climo mean. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Variable conditions across the North Country this morning. Expect VLIFR conditions to persist at KSLK and KMPV through sunrise. Elsewhere, conditions will tend to vary between VFR-IFR throughout the next 6-8 hrs. Winds remain light, allowing fog to persist through 12Z-14Z Sunday. Once fog does lift, VFR conditions will persist throughout the day Sunday into Sunday evening. Outlook... Monday: IFR-VLIFR in Patchy FG. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday - Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night - Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE...
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Abnormally warm temperatures are expected today, Sunday, September 17, 2017. Daytime maximum temperatures could reach record breaking heat at some locations with forecast temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s today. RECORD MAX 9/17: Burlington, VT - 86F set in 2015 Montpelier, VT - 81F set in 1955 Massena, NY - 84F set in 1972 & 1955
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...KGM CLIMATE...KGM

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