Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 060826 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 326 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SEASONABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN THAT WILL SEE OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 324 AM EST SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 925-800MB FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK THAT GENERATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD INTO VERMONT AND SEE GENERALLY CLOUD SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY DOESN`T LOOK TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO VERMONT OR NEW YORK BUT THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AS IT CROSSES INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING USHER IN LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BRING 925MB TEMPS UP BY AROUND 4-5 DEGC INTO THE -3C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL TURN MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH NEAR MONTREAL. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IF SOME OF THAT SHALLOW AIR GETS TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH NEW YORK AND CANADA. I DONT EXPECT IT TO HAPPEN SO THE COLDER AIR SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND OUR LOWS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE MID 20S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS OF SINGLE DIGITS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST NORTHERN ZONES. BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION AND DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BTV4 AND BTV12 BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT FADING AWAY QUICKLY. DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT NEVER MAKES IT QUITE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE NOT TOO COLD OF A DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN SET UP FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WE ARE A BIT STUCK BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT FOR ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS WEAK AND NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO HELP WITH FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF BASE. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE END OF THE WEEK A COLD TROF DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING US SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE COASTAL STORM THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT PREVIOUSLY NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY WELL OUT TO SEA AND NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...INCREASING VFR CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRATUS DECK FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. OBS UPSTREAM POINT TO A CEILING AROUND 6000-7500 FEET AND EXPECT THAT TO BE WHAT HAPPENS AS THE CLOUDS BUILD IN ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WESTERLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVER NIGHT HOURS AND IF A BAND MOVES OVER EITHER SLK OR MSS REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. SLK IS THE BEST CASE TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT CHANGING TO SOUTH BY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS AT KMSS/KBTV. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...DEAL

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