Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030610 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 210 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 210 AM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG OVER VT UNDER A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND BREAK UP MID TO LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR IN VT WITH WEAK BLOCKED UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OTHERWISE NEAR CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. TODAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN VERMONT ZONES AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...GOING WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD. AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS AS A LONG WAVE TROF DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK RIDGING. THUS LOOKING AT RATHER LIGHT WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS ALL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME OF THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 6000FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY MEANS ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN. END RESULT -- A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. NO STRONG FORCING, SO PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS EVEN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A FEW EXTRA SHOWERS. STICKING WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE, HAVE PAINTED IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. COULD BE A SMIDGE COOLER IN EASTERN SECTIONS THANKS TO THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC AIRMASS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART, 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR, AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS DIVERGE MUCH MORE COME SUNDAY. THE QUICK SUMMARY IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS ABOUT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE AN OUTSTANDING SPRING DAY, BUT SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR SUNDAY. COULD BE A BIT COOL AND BREEZY FOR MONDAY. I`LL JUST TAKE IT DAY BY DAY FOR EXTRA DETAILS: THURSDAY: UPPER TROF WILL BE DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH DURING THE DAY, AND BEGINNING TO CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FOR OUR AREA, WE`LL BE STUCK IN A FAIRLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW SINCE WE`LL BE NORTH OF THE CUT-OFF. DESPITE THAT, THE 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD (AROUND 10C), SO EVEN WITH NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED, WE`LL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. LOTS OF CHANCE LEVEL POPS. FRIDAY: CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW (AND RELATED SURFACE LOW). COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME SUN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS. 925MB TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER (10-12C). COULD BE PUSHING 70F IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, WHERE I WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE LOTS OF 60S. COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT SOME POINT IN THE DAY, SO HAVE GONE WITH THE GUIDANCE BLEND TO SHOW SOME 25-35% POPS IN THOSE AREAS. SATURDAY: STILL HAVE THE CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING ABOUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE IN IT`S LOCATION, BUT THINKING IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT WE`LL BE THE EXCEPTION FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND ADVECTS IN SOME FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 925MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 13-15C RANGE, WHICH UNDER FULL SUN MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. AT THIS POINT, MANY OF GUIDANCE OUTPUTS AREN`T THAT WARM, SO HAVE GENERALLY GONE 3 TO 5F ABOVE THE GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS. IN THESE KINDS OF SITUATIONS, COASTAL NEW ENGLAND CAN BE COOL/CLOUDY/DRIZZLY WITH THE ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IT`S THE TOTAL OPPOSITE. TYPICALLY HAPPENS A FEW TIMES EACH SPRING -- AND I THINK THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THAT COOLER/MOIST AIR COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST VERMONT. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIMARY MODELS, BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL-DOWN. THE GFS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS 925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 3-5C, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE EURO IS NOT AS COLD, OWING TO IT`S SLOWER TIMING OF BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN. STUCK WITH A BLEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OTHER THING OF NOTE, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE OVERNIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS FOR SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MONDAY: FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW MEANING COOLER TEMPERATURES. STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS TO EXACTLY HOW CHILLY THE AIR WILL BE, SO TOOK THE BLEND. UPPER 50S (NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH) SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. COULD ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/GUSTY AS 850MB FLOW IS 30 TO 40KNOTS AND WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN, WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THOSE WINDS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY AM, GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY PM. LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID MORNING. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT NEAR CALM ELSEWHERE. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z. TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT. AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY WED MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...SISSON

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