Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 182342 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 742 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the east coast of the United States will maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday. With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west to east. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 707 PM EDT Wednesday...Forecast in great shape with another mild evening across the north country. Surface high pres is shifting east...while surface boundary approaches the central Great Lakes. The gradient between these two features will help to increase sfc winds overnight...especially in the wider cpv/slv. Meanwhile...early this evening...skies are clear and winds have decoupled in the deeper valleys...along with very dry air mass has allowed temps to fall quickly. Have updated to capture rate of fall in hourly grids...but have only made minor tweaks to overall low temp forecast. Expecting lows upper 30s/lower 40s slk/nek to l/m 50s cpv/slv with mostly clear skies. Previous discussion below: Going forecast on track. 925mb temps around 12C at BTV per RAP this afternoon which should yield max temps in the mid 60s in the valleys lower 60s in the hills this afternoon which is well covered in the going forecast. Very quiet wx through the near-term. Generally looking at clear skies otherwise through tonight. The sfc ridge axis extending along the east coast of the U.S. and building shortwave ridging aloft will bring dry weather, but southerly pressure gradient increases overnight especially west of the Greens with light south to southwest winds and moderating temperatures. Only a very small chance for any radiation fog east of the Greens so left it out. Lows mainly in the 40s for tonight except near 50 in the St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys. Temperatures moderate further on Thursday under a rather strong west southwest flow with 850-mb winds 30 to 50 kts leading to breezy surface winds of around 15 kt with gusts to 25 to 30 kt. With 925-mb temps around 14C for looking for max temps reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another mid-upr level shortwave trough is progged to pass along the intl border Thursday afternoon. This feature should bring an increase in mid-upr level clouds, but dry low-level conditions should preclude any precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 334 PM EDT Wednesday...A rather dry cold front will pass through the region Thursday night with some clouds especially in the northern Green mountains where a sprinkle can`t be ruled out. 925mb temps drop to about 8C near BTV on Friday for "cooler" high temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s, still a bit above normal. High pressure will slide across the mid-Atlantic states and off the coast lead to quiet weather conditions with mostly clear skies under broad subsidence. Return SW flow around the high with warm advection over the weekend will will bring warming temps each day with upper 60s Saturday to 70 by Sunday. Each night we`ll radiatively cool and should see temps in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 352 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will be the dominant feature over the weekend. Surface ridge axis will slide eastward over the Atlantic seaboard, increasing warm southwesterly flow. This will result in daytime max temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s to close out the weekend. Min temperatures will see a warming trend heading into the work week, from mid 40s to mid 50s. The beginning of the work week will see a pattern change as a cold front associated with a mid-upper level longwave trough approaches from the west. The North Country will see an increase in clouds and potential for rain some time late Monday into Tuesday. Potential for rain showers will be reinforced, especially on Tuesday at the mid-upper level trough digs southward into the Mississippi valley. At the surface, ECMWF and GFS show closed low pressure system develop and move over SE Ontario/NW NY by late Tuesday. Increased pressure gradient at the surface should lead to fairly gusty winds with the potential for 15-25 mph with gust to 35mph Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions expected to persist as low level southwesterly jet of 20-35kts developing overnight due to increasing pressure gradient with surface high pressure settled over the mid-Atlantic states and approaching strong Canadian low entering Hudsons Bay increases the pressure gradient. Jet should hinder any fog development under clear skies into Thursday morning, but also produce some LLWS (23035kt at 020) overnight at KMSS and KSLK. There`s a chance some intermittent fog may develop at KSLK before the jet develops...mainly btwn 02Z-04Z as T-Td spread is very narrow to start the night. Winds will mix to the ground throughout the daytime with S-SW sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts 20-35kts expected. Can`t rule out funneling up the St Lawrence to have isolated higher gusts. A cold front associated with the low will bring some high to mid level clouds toward 18z with a wind shift to west northwest toward 00Z Fri. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday - Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .MARINE... Southerly winds will increase overnight reaching 15 to 25 kts by dawn Thursday as a moderately strong pressure gradient develops. Relatively mild water temps in the upper 50s may mix winds of 30 knots just above the surface early Thursday morning, so could be a bit higher than 25 knot for a few hours from sunrise to noon. Winds should slowly diminish late in the afternoon and then shift to the west northwest 10 to 15 knots Thursday night. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance through tonight (10/18) and tomorrow (10/19) as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Taber/Sisson SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM MARINE... EQUIPMENT...BTV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.