Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230745 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 06Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS NRN NY LATER THIS MORNING PER PROGGED RUC/NAM RH TRENDS. ALSO DEALING WITH LINGERING STRATUS LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT EARLY THIS AM. ON BALANCE ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. MAY SEE A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE STRATUS LAYER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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