


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --955 FXUS61 KBTV 120711 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 311 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will redevelop today as the region remains in a humid and unstable pattern. A weak frontal passage will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms later Sunday into Monday. Drier, but continued hot and humid weather, is expected for the remainder of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 207 AM EDT Saturday...Heat and humidity will build today as we start the warming trend that will linger into next week. 925mb temperatures will approach 22- 24C this afternoon, just a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Hence anticipate highs to range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations to the low 90s in the wider valleys. With dewpoints well into the 60s and likely even topping 70F in some spots, still anticipate heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Some locations could top 95F, these should be fairly localized and for just a short duration, thereby keeping us just below Heat Advisory levels. Still, it`ll be a warm and muggy day, so please make sure to take appropriate heat safety precautions. Still anticipate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by this afternoon. Forcing will be weak, but with sufficient instability (mean CAPE values of 850-1500 J/kg), expect there will be enough terrain-driven lift for thunderstorm development. Shear is much more modest, 15 to 25 kt at best, so severe weather is not anticipated. However, there is a non-zero chance for locally stronger convection, which might be capable of producing strong to marginally severe winds. Heavy rain will be possible as well, with rainfall rates locally exceeding 0.25 in/hr at times. Any convection should wind down Saturday evening as diurnal heating is lost. It will stay a fairly muggy night though, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 207 AM EDT Saturday...Sunday continues to look like the potentially more impactful day for isolated severe thunderstorms and flooding. It`ll be another warm and humid day, allowing for ample instability, particularly over northern NY where mean SB CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg are expected. Further east, an inversion 850mb will temper instability and limit convective potential. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift across the region Sunday morning, followed by a slow-moving cold front which will very gradually push eastward from the Great Lakes late Sunday into Sunday night, and then eventually through our area on Monday. Moisture will pool ahead of the cold front, and expect a prolonged period of PWATs approaching 1.75+ inch by Sunday afternoon/night. The copious moisture, ample instability, and frontal forcing will be enough for scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon, likely lingering through SUnday night as the cold front makes its slow eastward progress. Deep layer flow will be southwest and parallel to the front, keeping eastward progress of both the front and any associated convection slow. Shear will be somewhat better than on Saturday, though still just 15 to 25 kt at 0-6km. The front should finally push through our area on Monday, keeping the threat showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain in the forecast as PWATs will remain close to 2 inches until the front finally exits. Note that we remain in a Marginal Risk in SPC`s latest Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook, and likewise in WPC`s Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for both Sunday and Monday. Both days will need to be monitored closely, both for severe potential and any flash flooding risk, especially in areas that have received recent heavy rainfall. Temperature wise, Sunday should see highs quite similar to Saturday, perhaps just a degree or two cooler owing to more cloud cover., Still, dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s, keeping heat index values close to that 95F Heat Advisory threshold. One good thing is that it does look like we should have a bit more wind, which may help make it feel a little less oppressive. Sunday night will be warm and muggy again, but Monday will likewise be a few degrees cooler than Sunday as the front moves through. The most noticeable change will be lowering dewpoints, back out of the 70s and into the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 207 AM EDT Saturday...Shortwave and associated frontal boundary largely east of CWA by Monday night so drying with clearing skies but not much change in the airmass. Eastern CONUS Heat ridge builds again for Tuesday and Wednesday with warmest day with 850mb temps possibly reaching 17-20C and 925mb temps reaching 23-25C at its peak. Dewpoints likely in the 60s for much of the duration and even some low 70s. There are timing differences with the breakdown of the upper heat ridge and northern stream disturbances. GFS is customarily quick while ECMWF and Canadian are a bit slower due to strength of the heat ridge. Current thinking is front lies across the St. Lawrence River Vly on Thursday with close proximity, surface heating and instability that showers/t-storms develop more in northern NY than in southern CWA. Thr front with potential several small waves in parallel WSW flow will slowly move into and through CWA Thu ngt-Fri with rich PWATS of 1.75-2 inches, thus potential for heavy rain producers so we`ll need to monitor closely. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Through 06Z Sunday...Patchy fog and low stratus will be across portions of the area KMSS, KSLK,KMPV and KEFK. KBTV, KPBG, and KRUT will remain VFR over the next 24 hours with light terrain driven winds. VFR conditons for all after 12z, expect some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially over our southern counties aft 16-18z. Low stratus may return to some of the above sites like this morning toward 06z Sun. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW