Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020731 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 331 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1022 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER TONIGHT. WE SAW A FEW PEAKS OF SUN HERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS SHIFTING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD THROUGH THE BTV CWA AT THIS TIME. MOST IF NOT ALL OF VT IS CLOUDY NOW...AND FEELING IS THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD IN THE LOW/MID 50S AND WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. EXPECT WE`LL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT...FOG IN SOME PLACES...LOW STRATUS IN OTHERS. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD..50S...AND LOWER WESTWARD WITH MORE BREAKS IN SKY COVER...40S. A FEW SPITS OF RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW CENTER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 411 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTING MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...SO EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER IN BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 331 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC REGIME CHANGE TOWARD BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OPEN THE PERIOD. CENTER OF LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RESULT IN AN INCREASING UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PINWHEEL AROUND LONGWAVE TROUGH/LOW. THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z/02 GLOBAL MODELS WITH PRIMARY DIFFERENCES BEING IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PUSHING ACROSS VT SAT NIGHT. LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS FOR EASTERN VT/NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH SHARPER TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PRECEDE THE FRONT...WITH PROGGED GFS PWS OF 1.5" BEING ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT INHERENT IN TODAY`S GFS/EC AND NAM/WRF GUIDANCE IS A SECONDARY WAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT NEAR NYC AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NH/ME. FEATURE IS STRONGEST IN THE NAM/WRF...BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORECAST QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST VT/GREENS. CURIOUS TO SEE IF THAT UNFOLDS AS PROGGED. QPF FROM THIS EVENT PROBABLY MORE BENEFICIAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT`S BEEN. A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT BELTS IN NORTHERN NY BUT LARGELY DRY ELSEWHERE. FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT THEN SKIRTS ACROSS NORTHERN NY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THERE BUT MOSTLY DRY FOR VT. AS LONGWAVE TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY...A BETTER-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH POPS TRENDING TOWARD HIGH CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD START OFF A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOWER 60S) BUT TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...ANOTHER VERY CHALLENGING 6-12 HR AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD. WITH EXCEPTION FOR MSS...CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS TAFS ONCE AGAIN MOSTLY A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES - NOT REALLY FITTING ANY COHERENT PATTERN. OVERALL REGIME REMAINS SIMILAR TO PRIOR NIGHTS WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR RANGE AT MOST SITES EXCEPT FOR MSS...THOUGH USED TEMPOS AS CATEGORIES UNLIKELY TO BE PERSISTENT AT ANY ONE SITE. AREAS OF MIST WILL BE AROUND AS WELL. LIGHT WINDS. FOR THURSDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW INVERSION BREAKING BY 13-14Z SO WOULD EXPECT ANY LOW CEIILNGS TO BE LIFTING BY THAT POINT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR ANTICIPATED AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH EXITS AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. AREAS OF OVERNIGHT MIST TO DEVELOP VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT SLK AND MPV...TOWARD EVENTUAL FOG AT THESE SAME LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FOG/BR POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. A STRONG COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH AREAS OF LLVL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT SLK/MPV ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO

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