Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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044 FXUS61 KBTV 062326 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 626 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT BTWN 00-06Z TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE 925MB TO 850MB FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS...HELPING TO ADVECT SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE MOISTURE INTO THE DACKS AND EXTREME NORTHERN GREENS NEAR JAY PEAK. BOTTOM LINE EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO BY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT LATEST VIS SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH LOWER SFC DWPTS OVER SOUTHERN VT NEAR VSF. WILL MENTION VALUES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA...AND BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OTHERWISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 30S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 15Z...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...MID 30S. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GETS VERY ACTIVE AND COMPLICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN QUICKLY TRACKING NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WITH NO IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION...OTHER THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROF. GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND ORIENTATION/PLACEMENT OF STRONG JET WINDS ALOFT...THESE TWO SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED THE NAM 4KM ALONG WITH THE SREF AND GEM...(I KNOW NOT THE BEST MODELS FOR CAPTURING LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS) SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR OUR CWA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF PULLING BACK 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE...ALONG WITH AN INVERTED TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN POINT THE EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECASTER CONTINUITY AND MENTION CHC POPS WEST TO LIKELY EAST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP FIELDS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER IN THE WEEK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 304 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GIVE THE NORTH COUNTRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR ANY BOUNDARIES/FRONTS TO ENHANCE FORCING...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT WE DO RECEIVE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MINOR. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH 03Z. HANDLED IT WITH A VCSH. OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANCES LOW AND ONLY KSLK GOT A VCSH WITH THE REST REMAINING DRY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH WEAK FRONT TO NORTH. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

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