Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290009 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 809 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 758 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC OVER PAST FEW HOURS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ONE STORM AFFECTED PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY BEFORE DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY. ANOTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM NORTH OF FRANKLIN COUNTY VERMONT IS FINALLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDER. NOT MUCH ELSE HAPPENING FURTHER SOUTH AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS/TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PART OF THE REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S WEATHER DIFFICULT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. 850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE. FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA. SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...RJS/SISSON

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