Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 071110 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 710 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 709 AM EDT TUESDAY... QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AS THEY BOTH HAVE INCREASED UP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THANKS TO 30KT SOUTH WIND AT 2K FT SEEN ON THE VWP. UVM GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR NOW SHOWING 1.70" AS OF 0845Z, SO MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED. WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 1.6-1.9" SPARKING SCT SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED, EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE AT WORK. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY... EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT 1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS. DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS. IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50". KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS 10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH 19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. 18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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