Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291952 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 352 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY... TRICKY TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AS WE WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE COOLER READINGS WILL BE IN EASTERN VT, ESPECIALLY NEK WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WARMER TO THE WEST IN THE ST.LAWERENCE VALLEY WHICH IS ALREADY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY WINDS, SO LOW TEMPS WEST OF THE GREENS AND ST.LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS TOWARD MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30 TO 50KTS OF SW FLOW AT 850MB PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z IN NY AND TOWARD MORNING IN VT, WITH DECENT QG FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT NOT NOT MUCH MOISTURE SO EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE APPROACHING NRN NY IN THE MORNING BUT WITH THE S-SW FLOW EXPECT THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY SHOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS BY 13-16Z. MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SLOT ALOFT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 18Z OR SO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO SW-W. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO -5C. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. TEMPS COOL ENOUGH SO THAT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A DUSTING TO AN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN GREENS INTO NORTHEASTERN VT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY GET 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE SUMMITS. EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S. TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. ANY LEFTOVER OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS WILL BE ENDING. 850 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT -9C ON ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE AROUND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVENT THE BOTTOM DROPPING OUT OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES BUT STILL CHILLY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST OF US.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 500 MB TROUGH EXITING THE REGION. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST. WILL GET SOME SUN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT COOL AIR WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY ONLY -13C, AND 925 -7 BOTH SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. LOW LEVEL WIND BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION DOESN`T TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND LOWS STILL A CHILLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S. FOR THURSDAY 500 MB TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE EASTER OVER NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWING HIGHER AMPLITUDE WITH ITS TROUGH/RIDGE COMBO. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PLACED A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. GFS HAS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH RACING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW, ACTUALLY PLACING IT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER, LAGGING PRECIP TIMING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. GFS SEEMS A LITTLE SPEEDY GIVEN THE UPPER PATTERN. EITHER WAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN IN THE WARM AIR. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS. FOR FRIDAY PREVIOUS RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF HAD DIFFERENCES WITH ECMWF WITHOLDING COOLER AIR AND FORECASTING A HIGH OF 64 AT BTV ON FRIDAY. AS APPEALING AS THIS SOUNDS IT IS TOO WARM, AND 12Z ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE AND MAX TEMPS IN 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY. SHOWERY POST FRONTAL AIR WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN TO THE 20S. FOR SATURDAY BOTH MODELS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO HOLD IN THE 30S, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. COLD AIR THIS TIME OF YEAR DOESN`T HAVE THE TEETH IT HAD A MONTH AGO, BUT WE STILL CAN`T SEEM TO SHAKE LOOSE.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR/SKY CLEAR TO START THE PERIOD... BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND DEVELOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH WINDS 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MSS. FOR TONIGHT...INCREASING MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT MSS/SLK/MPV/RUT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 20-21 KNOTS AT BTV. WILL SEE LOWER CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENCROACH UPON TAF SITES 08-10Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING. BTV/PBG LEAST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES. 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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