Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221143 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 743 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 742 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT FOR TODAY. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN 04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS AFTN/EVENING. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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