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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 090520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1220 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1220 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATE ISSUED MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS
FROM LATEST OBS. FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH SKIES REMAINING
MCLR/CLR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AREA FROM THE WEST. OVERNGT
LOWS STILL LOOK GD AS WELL AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP W/ WNW
FLOW ABATING AND LGT/VAR TO CALM CONDITIONS OVERTAKE THE CWA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SEVERAL LIGHT SNOW EVENTS WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WL PRODUCE MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BLW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -14C AND -16C...WITH SUN AND SOME MIXING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACRS THE WARMER
VALLEYS/UHI AREAS. 1000 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY SPREADS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASED LIFT FROM MID LVL
WAA AND SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS
WL PRODUCE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE
RH PROFILES THRU THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND SOME WEAK UVVS BTWN
875MB AND 700MB...RESULTING IN GOOD FLAKE SIZE AND 25 TO 1 OR SO
SNOW RATIOS. WL MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
VALLEYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MTNS BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.
FIRST SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY 15Z MONDAY...AS NEXT
WAA LIFT AND WEAK SFC LOW PRES ARRIVES BY 00Z TUES. THIS WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BTWN SFC AND 850MB
AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND
TEMPS WARMING OVERNIGHT. THE SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES WL
RESULT IN LOWER SNOW RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1...BUT GIVEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER RH PROFILES AND LIFT...ANOTHER DUSTING TO 1 INCHES IS
LIKELY VALLEYS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MTNS. SNOWFALL/QPF WL BE
FINE TUNED AS EVENTS GET CLOSER AND WE CAN USE HI RESOLUTION
MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE TRRN IMPACTS. TEMPS WL CONT TO BE BLW
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S
OVERNIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ON MONDAY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPING PRECIP. EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE L20S NEK/EASTERN VT TO L30S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN THE
VALLEYS...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW/RAIN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DECREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF CLEARING.

PROBLEM PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...DUE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. ALL 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE MORE PHASING OF THE TWO
STREAMS THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. GFS STILL FURTHER SOUTH WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HEAVIER QPF...WITH LOW TRACK JUST INSIDE THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF TAKES LOW UP ACROSS CAPE
COD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY. MODEL BLEND OF QPF
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO OVER AN INCH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW UPPER STREAMS WILL PHASE...SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPS. TEMPS FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
CHANCE FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S...THEN WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW LOWER CLOUDS AT AND BEHIND
THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE REGION. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AS SEEN ON SAT ALSO. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTH TO WEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT WILL BE
ROLLING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AFT 21Z IN NY AND AROUND 00Z
MONDAY IN VT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR...TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...POSSIBLE IFR/SNOW IN NE COAST STORM.

12Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON