Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241921 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 321 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND 800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF 17/18...AND AROUND 29F FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U 20S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE. BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON SAT. SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING SCT- BKN VFR DECK OVER NE VT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TO SKC AND GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ABATE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SKC ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION 00-06Z...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT 10-15KFT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO NEAR 5KFT. 00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE. 00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. 00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES. MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 20% AND 30% ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012. NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...LAHIFF FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM

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