Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 012327 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 627 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT TO ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY TO UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 530 PM EST SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THINKING OTHER THAN TWEAKING A FEW TEMPERATURE TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SNOW ON TRACK TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HEALTHY LOOKING SYSTEM ON WATER VAPOR AND COMPOSITE RADAR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FORMATION IN CLOUDS/MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD NY/VT. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY STREAMING INTO NY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING ADIRONDACKS/CENTRAL VERMONT PRIOR TO MORNING COMMUTE AND ACROSS ALL OF NY/VT AROUND OF JUST AFTER MORNING COMMUTE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT...FALLING EARLY THEN RISING FROM SW TO NE AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCE... STILL MANY PLACES AT OR BELOW ZERO. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 304 PM EST SUNDAY...PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN ALL ASPECTS...INCLUDING A FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND GREATER QPF FIELD MOVING NORTH INTO MUCH OF VT/NY. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS REGION ON MONDAY WITH DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF STILL POSITIVE BUT TRYING TO GO NEGATIVE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. H7 LOW MOVING ACROSS VT/NY ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER ANNOUNCED...AREAS OF STRONG DEFORMATION SPREADING INTO MUCH OF VT/NY...STRONG WAA ALOFT, COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED/AIDED BY SMALL JET STREAK AT 250MB OF 100+KTS MOVING OVER THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT 5-10" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 4-7" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS WERE ISSUED AT 1 PM AS WELL AS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. IT WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND SUB-ZERO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...THUS 10 TO 20 BELOW WIND CHILLS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY 20 TO 30 BELOW WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT. NO HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS BUT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. RETURN FLOW LATE TUESDAY AND WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AS IT BEGINS TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH FOR LATE WED/THU WILL MEAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...THEN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSING NORTH OF US ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD...YET STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN DETERIORATING TO IFR VIS/VFR CIGS WHEN SNOW BEGINS SOUTH TO NORTH 09-10Z. AFTER 12Z VIS LOWERS TO LIFR WITH IFR CIGS THROUGH MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY KRUT/KMPV. KEPT KMSS OUT OF LIFR CATEGORY WITH IFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OUT OF LIFR TO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WEST TO EAST. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z-12Z TUESDAY...SNOW TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST BECOMING VFR. 12Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...AREAS MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. 12Z THURSDAY-00Z SATURDAY...VFR.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ028>031-034-035. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SLW NEAR TERM...EVENSON/SLW SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM/SLW LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...HANSON

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