Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 310019
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
819 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
As a cold front pushes across the North Country isolated showers
will remain possible for southern and central Vermont this
afternoon and early evening. Cooler temperatures will be felt
behind the front with lows tonight dropping into the mid to upper
50s tonight and near normal tomorrow evening. Dry conditions are
expected Tuesday through Thursday with slightly above normal
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 722 PM EDT Monday...Cold front is sweeping ewd across VT at
7pm with moderately strong low-mid level drying underway. The 2-m
dewpoint at BTV has dropped from 64F at 5pm to 50F at 7pm.
Corresponding mid-level drying appeared to cause substantial
entrainment into incipient convective storms and significantly
limited tstm activity during the past 1-3 hours. Did receive a
report of 0.17" rainfall in Brownington, but coverage of
storms/rainfall was quite limited and the appears to be over at
this point. Will continue to see drying overnight with skies
becoming mostly clear from west to east following frontal passage.
Will see more comfortable sleeping weather with the lower
dewpoints and low temps mainly in the 50s areawide. May see some
patchy fog in more sheltered spots after midnight, but fog
potential will be fighting against the drying and wly 925mb winds
15-20kts much of the night. Wetting rainfall in the past 24-30hrs
suggests there will be some fog/mist, but would anticipate just
intermittent fog around SLK and the river valleys east of the
Green mtn spine, and not becoming dense given some of the negative
factors overnight tonight.
Tuesday will be a dry day with mostly sunny skies under high
pressure and zonal flow aloft. With 925mb temps only 14C-16C highs
should finally drop into the upper 70s across most of the area
with low 80s possible in the Champlain and Connecticut river
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period
with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the
lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in
the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on
Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers
into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the
region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows
done the progression of the cold front from the western Great
Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep
a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good
agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and
Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for
Saturday, and dry Saturday night.
ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and
Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the
Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an
upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both
models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have
gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday.
Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period.
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Through 00z Wednesday...VFR to prevail through the period. Drier
air on WSW winds will inhibit widespread fog overnight with clear
skies but given nearly an inch of rain yesterday still can`t rule
out very localized mvfr-ifr at KSLK and patchy at best and MVFR at
KMPV. Winds pick up from w-nw at 10-15 knots during tuesday.
Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday... Primarily VFR TUE NGT-THU
with just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.
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