Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241137 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 737 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 711 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PATCHY SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR -DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST AREA AS OF 700 AM AS TEMPERATURES HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40F. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ESP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION... FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO YOUR FRIDAY. OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BENCHMARK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS (50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS. THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT. TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA. THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. 12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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