Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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067 FXUS61 KBTV 201947 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 347 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers and thunderstorms around the region this afternoon. Friday will remain relatively dry, but an isolated afternoon shower or two is not out of the question. Saturday into the first part of Sunday will see more dry and seasonable weather under high pressure. Sunday evening into Monday brings the next chance of showers and thunderstorms as an upper level trough of low pressure moves in. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 312 PM EDT Thursday...The region will be in west to northwest flow aloft with little in the way of any larger scale forcing. The hi-res models have picked up on some very isolated shower and thunderstorm activity across the northern counties and some lake breeze convection on western side of Lake Champlain. Convection so far is isolated in nature and should remain so for the next few hours. Models also indicate isolated pockets of CAPE 500-2000 J/kg which have been lining up so far with the activity to this point. If things hold, the instability should drop off in a few hours and the activity along with it. Quiet and dry weather is expected tonight and for most of Friday. There will be a trough moving across eastern Canada and we should see some increase in dynamic support and combined with additional forcing from the higher terrain and sufficient instability. Because of that cannot rule out the possibility of some very isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly over the northern Adirondacks and the Northern third of Vermont. Again this activity would be weak and disorganized. Overnight Friday, high pressure takes hold again leading to another dry and quiet night. High temperatures today and Friday will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s while lows for Thursday and Friday will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...Looking for a relatively dry day on Saturday with west-northwesterly mid-level flow and weak sfc high pressure in place across NY and New England. Low-level wind fields are quite weak with flat p-gradient, so winds areawide should be less than 10 mph. The 850mb temps per 12z GFS/ECMWF are near +13C at BTV at 18Z Saturday, and with partly to mostly sunny conditions, should see daytime highs in the low-mid 80s. Can`t completely rule out a terrain driven shower/isold tstm...especially vcnty of the nrn Adirondacks. There is a slight chance mention (PoPs 15-20%) in the official forecast during the mid aftn thru early evening period as a result. Low pressure tracking ewd across the srn Great Lakes region will be associated with ewd extending frontal zone, with developing zone of 850-700mb warm advection across the srn half of the forecast area during Saturday night. Some NWP differences with 12Z GFS showing associated showers and WAA further north across our region, with 12z ECMWF suppressed further south. At this point, included 30-40% PoPs mainly late Saturday night for showers and chance for an embedded elevated thunderstorm. Will see continued chances for showers and isold thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday night, generally 20-40% PoPs Sunday and 50-60% PoPs Sunday night with highest PoPs across the srn half of our forecast area. During this time frame, E-W baroclinic zone will be situated across central NY into central New England, with weak sfc low tracking ewd along the frontal zone. It appears that better upper level support arrives Sunday night into Monday with shortwave trough approaching from sern Ontario. 12Z GFS model soundings at KRUT Sunday night indicate elevated instability around 500 J/kg, so maintained slight chance thunderstorms thru the overnight period. Should see high temps mid-upr 70s Sunday, and upr 50s to around 60F for Sunday night with mostly cloudy skies expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...Mid-level shortwave trough tracks ewd thru the area Monday into Monday night, with continued chances for showers. Abundant clouds likely Monday, keeping daytime highs in the low-mid 70s. Should trend toward cooler and drier weather mid-week as shortwave trough moves east of our longitude later Monday night or Tuesday. Should see highs in the mid 70s Tue/Wed. Kept lingering 30% PoPs Tuesday and down 10% or less into Wed/Thu.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through the period. There have been a few showers and thunderstorms popping up this afternoon...especially over eastern New York and across the international border in response to the development of a lake breeze. This activity will drift east based on the flow pattern. Have mention of vicinity showers at KPBG/KBTV/KRUT 00Z. Despite the potential for showers at these locations...VFR conditions are expected. Some low clouds and fog could return after 06z tonight, especially at KMPV and KSLK though confidence is lower than previous evenings. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Verasamy SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Verasamy

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