Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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960 FXUS61 KBTV 131204 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 704 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Deep low pressure will pull away into eastern Canada today into tonight with widespread light snows and snow showers tapering off. Cold and blustery weather is expected into Thursday before winds abate. Thereafter a slow moderation in temperatures is expected into next weekend with a few snow showers expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 651 AM EST Wednesday...The forecast remains generally on track as we progress into the daylight hours today. Steadier, more persistent upslope snows have been somewhat slow to develop this morning across the northern Greens, mainly due to primary 500-700 closed low centers remaining to our immediate west with southerly flow at mid levels persisting from the Champlain Valley east. This should change in the coming few hours as these features translate to our east and flow in those levels also trends northwesterly. So still think the idea of a 2-5 hour window of a general reblossoming of activity along the western slopes into portions of the northern Greens looks good through the noontime hours before things more solidly taper off. Will continue to monitor. Have a great day. Prior discussion... Have gone ahead and cancelled advisories and warnings across the remainder of northern NY and southern VT with this package, though have maintained headlines across northern VT where steadier light snows continue early this morning. As deepening low pressure across eastern Maine pulls away into the maritimes by this afternoon a tightening pressure gradient will evolve producing gusty northwesterly winds into the 20 to 30 mph range with localized higher gusts. Temperatures will hold nearly steady from 10 to 20 above so there will be quite the chill in the air with apparent temperatures hovering in the +/- single digits. Hi-res model output remains consistent in showing orographically enhanced wrap-around light snows to continue across much of northern VT through the morning hours under modestly blocked low level flow. During this period additional accumulations mainly in the 1-3 inch range are expected with localized higher totals in favored upslope areas and higher terrain above 2000 feet. By this afternoon the flow trends more unblocked and as deeper moisture pivots northward and away from the area the activity will decrease in areal coverage and become increasingly confined to the higher elevations over time. This is the period during which the northwesterly wind gusts will peak across the area creating areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Given these conditions persons traveling across the Winter Storm Warning area today should prepare for locally difficult travel and ensure they have proper winter survival material in their vehicles such as a blanket and fully charged cell phone. By tonight into Thursday sensible weather conditions gradually trend quieter, though we`ll remain under deep cyclonic flow and a modest pressure gradient so winds will only abate slowly. A weak secondary clipper low will pass to our south tonight into Thursday morning and have little impact on area weather. Skies trend partly cloudy tonight, then partly to mostly sunny on Thursday. Lows tonight to mainly range in the +/- single digits with wind chills falling into the negative single digits and teens so bundle up. High on Thursday generally in the 9 to 18 above range with customary variation. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 354 AM EST Wednesday...Clear to partly cloudy skies then continue into Thursday night as weak high pressure bridges across the area. Winds to trend light south to southwesterly preventing a full free-fall in temperatures. That said it will still be quite chilly with lows by sunrise Friday once again in the +/- single digits and wind chills in the negative single digits/teens. Looking ahead to Friday the background flow continues to back to south/southwesterly in advance of another, though much weaker northern stream clipper low across the northern Great Lakes. Mainly dry weather continues, though lake snow showers off Lake Ontario should lift northward over time, possibly affecting southwestern St. Lawrence county with light accumulations. High temperatures to trend more reasonable - mainly upper teens to lower 20s, which will feel considerably nicer given the lighter wind regime. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 AM EST Wednesday....A weak clipper type system will move across the North country Friday night into Saturday. Scattered light snow showers are anticipated with this system. Saturday night a ridge of high pressure will briefly build over the region, ahead of another weak low crossing north of our area and bringing more light snow showers on Sunday night. Some differences arise between the GFS and ECMWF headed into early next week, but pattern looks to remain active with several more chances for light snow showers. No major storms going all the way out through the work week next week. Lower than normal temperatures for this weekend will return to above seasonal normals headed into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 12Z Wednesday...Snow will resume at BTV and MPV with IFR conditions at times. Other terminals are mostly done with the snow. Ceilings have improved to VFR at most places with MVFR ceilings remaining at RUT and SLK. Winds will be northwest at all terminals generally at 5-15 kt. Winds will increase during the day Wednesday with gusts of 25-30 kt expected. Ceilings will continue to improve through the period. Gusty winds will cause some blowing snow today, especially at MPV. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Isolated SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ003- 004-006>008-016>018. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ002- 005. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Neiles is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.