Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181744 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1244 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW- MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY AT 17Z STILL INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT RETURNS IN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN QUEBEC. EXPECTATION OF 2-4" OF ADDITION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TRANSLATES SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITION ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 33-36F RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY 5- 10 MPH. ANY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NERN VT AND HIGHER ELEVATION ROAD SURFACES THRU THE GREEN MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 404 AM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PULL EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW...THEREFORE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE CLEARING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. LOWER LEVELS FINALLY DRY UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND A CLEAR COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WITH MIN TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCE FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY...WITH FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW...STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY AS DEEP LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND COLDER AIR RETURNS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST IN LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. KBTV/KPBG AND KRUT WILL SEE PERIODS OF VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT HIGHER TERRAIN SITES, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR. AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL BUT KSLK DURING THE MID-MORNING. GUSTY W-NW WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 24KTS. DURING THE EVENING, GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5-10KTS INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...KGM

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