Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 030803 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 303 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy skies with scattered rain and snow showers will persist across northern areas today with partial sunshine possible in the southern valleys by this afternoon. Fairly quiet and seasonable weather returns by Sunday into early next week with just a low chance of rain or snow showers on Monday. A more active pattern develops by the middle and later part of next week as low pressure and deeper moisture push into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM EST Saturday...Mainly a persistence forecast will be offered over the next 24 hours as moist northwesterly flow lingers on the back side of large-scale cyclonic gyre exiting into the maritime provinces of Canada. One final upper shortwave embedded within this flow will swing through the area this afternoon, so the idea of mainly cloudy skies with scattered to numerous snow showers in elevated terrain across the north continues to look reasonable. Here minor accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches will be possible over 1000 feet today with localized amounts into the 3-4 inch range possible at the higher summits. Some partial sunshine will be possible on the New York side of the Champlain Valley and in the upper Connecticut River Valley of southern Vermont as boundary layer deepens slightly and adiabatic descent fosters low level drying. Here the shower coverage will be considerably less, perhaps just a passing light sprinkle or flurry from time to time. High temperatures remain seasonably cool ranging through the 30s. By tonight variable clouds persist as northwesterly flow continues across the region. The clouds will tend to erode across the lower elevations through time, becoming increasingly confined to the northern higher terrain and the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley as boundary layer flow remains significantly blocked. Still looking at continued scattered snow shower activity across the higher terrain of the north where some minor additional accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches will be possible, though this too will wane over time as depth of moisture thins. Did lean on the milder side of temperature guidance (blended bias-corrected data) given the lingering clouds offering lows in the mid to upper 20s for most spots and locally to near 30 in the Champlain Valley. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 250 AM EST Saturday...Surface and upper level ridging will be over the North Country on Sunday and region will have dry weather through Sunday night. Surface and upper level trofs will approach from our West and bring some light rain and snow on Monday, any accumulations will be light. Temperatures will run a couple degrees below normal for Sunday through Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 246 AM EST Saturday...Monday night and Tuesday will feature some dry weather as another ridge briefly builds over the area. Tuesday looks to be the day with the best chance for any sunshine. The weather pattern will become more unsettled from Tuesday night onward with several chances for light rain and snow showers once again. GFS and ECMWF still not quite coming into line from Day 4 onward. Have chance for precipitation mentioned every forecast period, though still lots of uncertainty. Right now best chance for precipitation will be Thursday and Thursday night as a surface low crosses just north of our forecast area along with its associated fronts. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF with this feature. Both models though show precipitation lingering with lots of wrap around moisture headed into the weekend with low pressure very slowly departing Eastern Canada. Temperatures will trend colder next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 06Z Sunday...An upper trough is moving through the region. Scattered snow showers mainly in the higher elevations are occurring with a chance of some activity at the stations in the valleys as well. Expect VFR ceilings to trend down to MVFR overnight, with some local pockets of IFR mainly at KSLK/KMPV. Through the day Saturday, ceilings will linger at low VFR/MVFR before gradual improvement back to VFR overall after 21Z. Surface winds from the northwest overnight and into the daytime hours at 10-15 knots with gusts up 20 knots expected. Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday... 06Z Sunday through 12Z Sunday...Mix of VFR/MVFR with local IFR possible at KSLK in scattered rain/snow showers. 12Z Sunday through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high pressure building in. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible, especially at KMPV/KSLK. 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow showers. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...MV

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