Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251951 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 351 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty downslope winds will continue into this evening, especially across the southern and central western slopes of the Green Mountains with isolated power outages possible. Steadier rain will redevelop tonight and continue into Friday. The upcoming weekend will feature a dry Saturday with some scattered showers possible late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 139 PM EDT Thursday...Wind advisory in effect till Midnight for localized gusts to 50 mph along the central and southern western slopes of the Green Mountains. Rain showers will continue through about 06z then become more stratiform as a larger slug of moisture moves over our forecast area from 06z till about 10z. Deeper moisture and stronger lift aid in spreading the widespread rain across the area. Low pressure system will move along NY/NE coast overnight. Heaviest QPF will fall during this time, generally around a quarter to a half an inch of rain overnight. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with min temps only in the 50s with plenty of clouds and precip. By Friday morning the low pressure system will be over Cape Cod and continue to move Northeastward into the Gulf of Maine by 00z. Rain showers will continue through the day Friday, though lighter than the overnight. Heaviest precipitation for our forecast area will be over Eastern Vermont, closest to the actual low center. Chances for precipitation will diminish from west to east during the afternoon hours. Maximum temperatures will be cool, generally in the 50s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... Vertically stacked low pressure system near Nova Scotia Friday evening moves east and out to sea overnight Friday night. Some lingering light rain showers or drizzle early will gradually dry up from west to east with some gradual clearing by Sat morning. Lows mainly in the 50s. Saturday will see weak surface high pressure build in to start the Memorial Day weekend. Partly cloudy skies and 850 temps of 8-10C will yield warmer temperatures with highs 70s. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... The long term starts out on Sunday with an upper level ridge over the east coast with a developing light southwest flow at the surface as weak high pressure moves out to sea east of New England. 850mb temps are around 10-11C which should yield high temps in the 70s perhaps upper 70s in the valleys. As the ridge shifts east, cloud cover increases in the afternoon and evening as an upper level low pressure system tracks west of the Great Lakes with warm advection during the overnight hours into early Memorial day with a period of showers. A weak cold front Monday evening trough will swing through with shortwave energy, bringing with it showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two with some marginal instability. Tuesday through Thursday there will be on and off mainly afternoon and evening showers as a second cold front and several post frontal trofs swing through the region. Cold advection will bring 850mb temps down from 8-10C on Tue to around 6C Wed and 4C on Thu. The cold advection and daytime heating will contribute to very weak instability and scattered showers. Corresponding high temperatures will be start out in the 70s on Tue falling back into the 60s Wed and Thu. Lows will in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...Aviation concerns will be gusty southeast winds at Rutland today...followed by lowering cigs with some mvfr conditions expected overnight. Localized gusts to 40 knots possible at RUT between until 01z. Expect areas of moderate to severe turbulence...especially near the terrain. Showery rain will become more stratiform overnight across the area, then end from west to east during the daytime hours Friday. generally MVFR ceilings can be expected overnight, some periods of IFR in heavier rain is likely especially as winds shift to the north after 06z. Winds will be out of the North under 15 kts on Friday. Outlook... Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VTZ011-017>019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Neiles

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