Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201745 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 145 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to dominate for the better part of the next week. While Hurricane Jose will remain southeast of New England, onshore flow from coastal areas will result in periods of low clouds and a chance of light showers for eastern Vermont for parts of Wednesday before Jose drifts further east. Beyond this, expect overall quiet and dry conditions with with well above seasonal average temperatures throughout the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 144 PM EDT Wednesday...Little change with this update. Still on track to have another decent afternoon with highs in the 70s to around 80. Other than some cumulus clouds, some mainly thin cirrostratus from Jose will cover the region. HRRR/RAP/NAM3 holding onto a chance of a shower over southern VT this afternoon/evening with some weak instability. High pressure will keep any significant effects from Hurricane Jose at bay to the southeast of the area. While the rest of the area will see partly cloudy skies and overall dry conditions. Northerly winds today should again keep temperatures today in the upper 70s to low 80s, which is still well above seasonable normals. Overnight tonight will see another chance for patchy fog again in the protected valleys, but overall mostly clear and overnight lows in the 50`s with the Champlain Valley remaining in the low 60s. Thursday will be more of the same overall with few clouds and dry quiet conditions overall. Temperatures will again be in the upper 70s with a few valley locations again reaching 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Wednesday...Upper ridge is reinforced over the area Thursday night through Friday night. This will lead to a continuation of dry weather as Jose is forced to remain well south and east of the area. Other than some high clouds over parts of the area...plenty of sunshine will exist. Lows Thursday night will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s...with upper 30s in the northern Adirondacks. Warming temperatures at 850 mb on Friday will allow for high temperatures to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Wednesday...Upper ridge builds right over the area on the weekend and 850 mb temperatures warm even more. This will put all areas in the 80s by Sunday. Jose still remains far enough south to not have an impact on the area plus it will be weakening with time. Perhaps in the Monday- Tuesday time period will the flow pattern change to allow some moisture to move into the region as Maria moves up the coast and helps to push whatever is left of Jose to lift into parts of New England. Any clouds moving in will help lower temperatures early next week...but readings will still be above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12Z Thursday...VFR through 04z with northerly winds around 10 kts diminishing around sunset as high pressure noses down from Canada and blends with the circulation from Jose offshore. Looks like another round of fog again tonight after 04Z and dissipating by 14z. Most confident at KSLK and KMPV but could see some fog or low stratus vcty any of the other sites including BTV. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson/Verasamy NEAR TERM...Sisson/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Sisson

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