Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020542 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 142 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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OUR WEEKEND WEATHER WILL FEATURE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS TYPICAL, ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND WILL GIVE US DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 141 AM EDT SATURDAY...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THREAT FOR SHOWERS HAS ALL BUT COME TO AN END FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OUR AREA. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONLY TEMPERATURE TWEAK WAS TO INCREASE VALUES ON THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH THE STEADY SOUTH WIND HAVING DEVELOPED. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND IT`S TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS ON TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF CONVECTION AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. MY BEST GUESS ON WHAT WILL EVOLVE FOLLOWS... SATURDAY: OFF TO OUR SOUTH WE`LL HAVE THAT COASTAL TROUGH IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT COASTAL TROUGH. SOME MODELS EVEN SHOW A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE ONE INGREDIENT IN HELPING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA. ANOTHER FOCUS WILL BE A SURFACE HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THICKER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND SUNSHINE (AT LEAST IN THE MORNING) TO THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH NO CAP -- SO ONCE WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BUBBLE UP, FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN ELSEWHERE. NOT LOOKING AT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WIND FIELDS WON`T BE ALL THAT STRONG. DID SOME TRAJECTORY FORECASTS AND OUR AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VERMONT IS WHAT IS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN NJ AREA TODAY. AS YOU CAN SEE, THEY`VE HAD QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. I EXPECT OUR RADAR TO LIKE LIKE THAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE PAINTED IN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THICKER CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL. NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY -- ROUGHLY 1.3" OR SO, BUT THAT MEANS SOME DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT WON`T BE ALL THAT STRONG, SO SOME VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. AGAIN, LOOK AT WHAT IS GOING ON DOWN SOUTH TODAY. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY THANKS TO THE CLOUDS. WARMEST NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN (UNTIL THE STORMS FIRE UP). SATURDAY NIGHT: EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO FADE IN THE EVENING AS THE HEATING GOES AWAY AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS. A FEW MODELS WANT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. I JUST DON`T BUY THAT AT THIS TIME. WOULD THINK OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THAT COASTAL TROUGH. EXPECT A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND DEW POINTS ABOUT THE SAME. SUNDAY: OVERALL THE PATTERN IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW, COASTAL FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE DAY. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. AGAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY. SUNDAY NIGHT: AGAIN, EXPECT SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO FADE SOMETIME DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR SLEEPING.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TURN THE WIND FLOW WEST THEN NW BY WEDNESDAY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRIER AS THE REGION SEES MORE NW FLOW BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ABOUND FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING FROM 12C-14C TO 10C-12C. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IN THE M60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND M70S-L80S IN THE VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY. MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE L50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH A FEW RESIDUAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. HOWEVER ANY FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE GIVEN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR OR LOWER FOG IS AT SLK...WHILE CHANCES EXIST AT MPV/MSS AS WELL. PBG MAY EVEN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG/BR THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE DUE TO A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS EVENING. BTV/RUT SHOULD SEE NO FOG. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...WITH VFR RETURNING/CONTINUING FOR MOST. AFTER 15Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH...5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME GUSTS AT BTV TO 15 KNOTS 02Z-06Z TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/BR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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