Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262007 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 307 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MORNING MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL TREND MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 305 PM EST THURSDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL EAST OF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MAINTAINED MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THERE IS A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500-300MB PV MAX ACROSS NRN OH AT 19Z...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING. THE 12Z BTV-4 AND BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST CONTINUED MID-UPPER CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FLURRY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...MAINLY THROUGH 03Z. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT DID MAINTAIN 20 POPS FOR ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING MAINLY ADIRONDACKS INTO RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ONCE THIS UPPER TROUGH PASSES...WE SHOULD TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKEWISE BE BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SO IT APPEARS WE/LL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOS CONSENSUS LOOKED REASONABLE - WITH LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW...AND LOCALLY 15 BELOW IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM. JUST MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DIURNAL CURVE TO SHOW MORE RAPID TEMP DROP ONCE CLOUDS LESSEN LATE. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5-10 MPH WILL GENERALLY LESSEN TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AFTER 02Z. SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM EST THURSDAY...STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE (1040-1044 MB) REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER TIME. DIDN/T SEE ANY REASON TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS ZERO TO -15F FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...AND THEN +5 TO -5F FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT INTO THE S-SW SATURDAY AROUND 10 MPH...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. POPS NIL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS LATER. IT WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO CONTEND WITH. DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS AND ALSO INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLOUDY AND FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN QUICKLY RETURNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE BY WEDNESDAY. ITS SHAPING UP AS A POTENTIALLY MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING EVENT...AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH WARMING MAY OCCUR FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO OTHER PRECIPITATION TYPES. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE JUST MENTIONED SNOW. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME VFR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT KSLK AND KRUT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AS INDICATED BY VCSH. AS UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA AFTER 06Z, CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW AT 3-8KTS FRIDAY MID-MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-06Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR LATE TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...KGM

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