Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210818 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 418 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Above normal temperatures will be the rule today and Thursday with highs in the 70s to around 80...which is about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Expect plenty of sunshine today with increasing clouds on Thursday. A cold front will move down from Canada Thursday night and Friday and increase the chances for rain showers. Behind this front...high pressure builds down from Canada over the weekend bringing noticeably cooler temperatures to the region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 418 AM EDT Wednesday...Drier air winning out early this morning as it has helped to limit the areal coverage of fog. Looks like any fog is confined to far eastern Vermont...especially near the Connecticut River Valley. This will burn off by mid- morning and all areas will see plenty of sunshine for today. 925 mb temperatures are only a degree cooler than yesterday and with dry air and full sun see no reason why we cannot get very close to yesterday`s highs. This will put readings today in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Clear skies and light winds tonight should lead to better chances for fog. Low temperatures will be in the 50s with some upper 40s in the mountains. Still looking at dry weather on Thursday...but clouds will begin to increase in the westerly flow aloft during the afternoon and dew points will start to slowly rise. 925 mb temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than Wednesday but the increased moisture should limit heating just a bit. Nevertheless...looking at above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s to around 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 418 AM EDT Wednesday...Stationary front that has been north of the border will make its move southward during the short term period. Zonal westerly flow aloft will amplify with an approaching shortwave trough, and a surface low will move along the front west to east Thursday night ahead of the upper low. Low level flow becomes westerly by Friday morning after the passage of the surface low. 500 mb shortwave trough lags the surface feature by 6-12 hours, and after its passage low level winds shift to northerly during the day Friday with the arrival of the cold front. Showers ahead of the surface low will be relegated to the Canadian border regions Thursday night, then more showers with actual cold frontal passage area wide. Best precip chances in the likely category near the border with the surface low Thursday night, then mainly in chance category Friday with frontal passage. Better chances Friday over higher terrain. Temperatures Thursday night still mild ahead of the front in southerly flow and plenty of cloud cover, mainly in the 50s. For Friday expect to see non-diurnal temperature trends with cooling 925 and 850 mb temperatures during the day. While we`ll see some partial clearing by the end of the day, cold air advection will likely win out in the end. Highs mainly in the 60s, near 60 along the northern border and upper 60s in the south. Quantitative Precip Forecast for the entire event has .30-.40 inch near the Canadian border, and a quarter inch or less central and south.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 418 AM EDT Wednesday...500 mb flow is highly amplified during the long term period, with an upper low closing off over the Canadian maritime, another deep upper low moving out of the western US, and the two separated by a sharp ridge oriented along the mississippi river. Persistent northerly low level flow, until about Sunday morning, has cold air advection offset by clearing skies. 850 mb temps around zero and 1000-500 mb thickness of 540 dam brush the northeast kingdom Saturday night. Will see wide diurnal swings with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Freezing temps in the colder areas of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom Saturday and Sunday nights and patchy frost across the rest of the area except immediate Champlain Valley. Surface and upper level ridge build into the region Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures moderate to near normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the period. The only exception to this may be some brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions due to low clouds and fog at KSLK and KMPV...but lowering dew points and winds just off the surface may preclude this from being a persistent issue. Will only mention temporary conditions of IFR/LIFR between 09z and 12z. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook 06Z Thursday through Saturday... 06z Thu - 00z Fri: VFR. VLIFR fog possible overnight at KMPV/KSLK. 00z Fri to 12z Sat: MVFR with scattered showers associated with a cold front. 12z Sat through Sun: Mainly VFR as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Hanson AVIATION...Evenson/WGH

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