Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232019 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 319 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE RAIN ENDS CHRISTMAS DAY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE EXPECTED.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 319 PM EST TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE THE PRECIPITATION FALL AS RAIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 319 PM EST TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH WIND WATCH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE PERIODS OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR AREA IS COMING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THUS THE RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN AND ENHANCES THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TO AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OVER VERMONT. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50S...AND THE SNOWMELT THAT RESULTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHARP RISES ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. LARGER RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT RIVERS SUCH AS THE AUSABLE...OTTER CREEK...AND WINOOSKI WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 7PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 7AM FRIDAY. THE RAIN ENDS QUICKLY CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING AND DRY SLOT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WHILE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WIND GUSTS 50 MPH OR HIGHER AND THUS A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA...WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BE COMMON. QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EST TUESDAY...GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS TO OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BUT THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD, REACHING THE M30S TO L40S. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AS THE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREEING ON DETAILS OF THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH, EVOLUTION AND TRACK WILL AFFECT POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL. BEING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND, EXPECT MAINLY A RAIN MIXING TO SNOW TRANSITION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT ALOFT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA...KEEPING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST WITH NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S, WITH MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY RADAR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A WEAK CLEARING TEMPORARILY BEFORE A SECOND SLUG OF MOISTURE AND RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH BRING LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW CHANCES FOR SOME LLWS OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT BRING IT IN MUCH LATER BEGINNING AROUND 12Z TOMORROW. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN NEW YORK SITES WHERE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT SOME MODERATE TO GUSTY WINDS IN KRUT BEFORE THE NEXT SLUG OF RAINFALL MOVES IN. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z WED-06Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 06Z THU-18Z THU...INITIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS DAY, BECOMING VFR/MVFR AS FRONT CLEARS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST/NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 18Z THU-12Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 12Z FRI ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...DEAL/KGM

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