Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240845 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY. WE`LL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TODAY. FIRST LOW WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC. SECOND LOW WILL PASS FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSELY CENTERED AROUND THAT LOW...THEREFORE LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW IN RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES. MEANWHILE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TODAY IS THE LAST CHANCE AT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO CROSSES THE AREA DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY ADVECTION. MINS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HANG AROUND TWENTY AS FRONT TAKES THE LONGEST TO REACH THERE. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN WIND DOWN TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA BRINGING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE...SOME -20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...QUIET...COLD AND GENERALLY DRY MID- WINTER CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS BROAD LONGWAVE POLAR TROUGH REMAINS ATOP THE NORTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED BENEATH. DID OFFER AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHSN FAR EAST/SOUTH DURING TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH SHOW A SOMEWHAT BROADER WESTERN EXTENT TO THE QPF FIELD OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THIS MORNING`S UKMET...GFS AND GEM IS FOR A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST AND THIS IS WHAT I`LL LEAN TOWARD...ESP SINCE BENCHMARK SYSTEMS ARE USUALLY MINIMAL PLAYERS FOR US. ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL OCCUR LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVANCE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING BROAD CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT LOOKING AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING REALLY ONLY LIGHT SHSN HERE AND THERE WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS GIVEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS DURING THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. NO PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS FROM 015-025 AGL POSSIBLE AT KMSS FROM 06-10Z...OTHERWISE CIGS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 120 AGL. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTER 16Z...WINDS TREND CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE AT KRUT. AFTER 22Z CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO BELOW 100 AGL AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST SHSN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR GENERALLY BEYOND THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING HAVE OFFERED VCSH AT KMSS/KSLK WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSLK DURING THIS PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO EQUIPMENT...WGH

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