Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282327 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 727 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV. SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION. JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS. THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES. SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW- MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK. 12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .MARINE... LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF MARINE...TABER

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