Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280540 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 140 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THURSDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NEW YORK AND WRN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE. CLEAR SKIES BRINGING A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS AT SUNRISE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 20S (AND 10 TO 15DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL). WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AS PBL DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS. THE 850MB TEMPS DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS UPR LOW OVER ERN QUEBEC PROGRESSES A BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY. WILL SEE 850MB TEMPS MODERATE THIS AFTN TO -3C SOUTH AND -6C NORTH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS 2-3F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 52-56F. POPS NIL. LITTLE CHANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F SLK/NERN VT) BUT DID ADJUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MOS CONSENSUS WITH POTL CIRRUS AND AS SUGGESTED PER RECENT MODEL BIAS CORRECTION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AS GUIDANCE REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S/30S, WITH MEAN 925- 850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GOING INTO SUNDAY, CONDITIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT TREND TOWARDS BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT SOME MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE FOR ME TO KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY, BUT I CAN SEE THE FORECAST TRENDING THAT WAY IN GUIDANCE DOESN`T CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT WARMING INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND LIGHT WINDS. SKC DAYTIME WITH SKC-SCT250 TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...BANACOS

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