Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 152342 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 742 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will be in control of the weather for the weekend and the first part of next week. Plenty of sunshine and much above normal temperatures are expected. By the middle of next week, Jose is forecast to be far off the coast of southern New England. At that time we could see some clouds and a chance of showers into eastern Vermont. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 719 PM EDT Friday...The forecast remains in good shape as isolated showers across south central VT dissipate over the next hour or so. Clear to mostly clear skies still look right on track for later this evening and into the overnight hours with patchy mist/fog once a again a good bet given our moist boundary layer. Just some small tweaks to the pops and sky cover to reflect these latest observational trends. Temperatures similar to last night - generally mid 50s to lower 60s with customary cool spots in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of VT. As a side note you may have noticed the rather hazy/milky appearance to the sky this afternoon/early evening. This is a veil of smoke aloft oriented along a KRUT to K1V4 line north and west into southern Canada with early evening hi-res GOES-R imagery showing this quite nicely. This has been advected north and east around the periphery of strong high pressure across our region with origins across the midwest and ArklaTex region. See www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/land/fire/currenthms.jpg for a current smoke analysis across the lower 48. Have a great evening. Prior discussion... Saturday is still looking quiet weather wise, and continued warm. 925mb temperatures will be in the 19-21C range (today was 18-20C), so at the very least a couple of degrees warmer. With the weakening mid level trough/Irma moisture remnants fully out of the region, we`ll have more sunshine around as well. I`ve got a lot of upper 70s to lower 80s painted in. Can`t rule out a few mid-80s -- in fact the GFS guidance has 86F for BTV tomorrow. Didn`t quite go that warm, but it`s within the realm of possibilities. Still very light winds given the high pressure and ridging aloft sitting on top of us. That high pressure and dry air aloft also means no showers are expected. Probably nothing more than shallow afternoon cumulus over the mountains (after fog/low clouds burn off). Hopefully you can get outside and enjoy. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EDT Friday...The remainder of the weekend is still looking warm and dry as the weather pattern is not changing very quickly. 925mb temperatures will again be above 20C on Sunday, so expect lower 80s, if not a tad warmer, for most valley locations. GFS MOS guidance says 87 at BTV Sunday afternoon. Guidance suggests that low/mid level flow turns more southerly, thus a slight uptick in the low/mid level moisture. Thus can`t rule out a rogue shower over the higher terrain. Have included some 15-20% PoPs over the spine of the central Green Mtns and the high peaks of the `Dacks. Expect rounds of patchy fog both Saturday and Sunday nights, with lows remaining well above normal -- lots of upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 324 PM EDT Friday...Next week looks to be fairly quiet barring significant changes in the forecast of Jose. Based on trends and consensus of the latest NWP guidance Jose will bring increasing cloud cover to North Country with some light rain across eastern Vermont. Either way that wouldn`t happen until mid week and so the work week starts off quite with high pressure aloft and above normal temps Monday. Clouds will increase through the overnight hours Monday night as Jose moves just off the coast of the Mid- Atlantic. On Tuesday light showers should develop across southeastern Vermont along with the chance for some gusty winds. Clouds clear and the showers come to an end Thursday as we return to our climo high pressure for mid September. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 00Z Sunday...VFR across the region overall. Expect another round of MVFR to IFR with fog and low ceilings overnight through 12-13z Saturday. Again most guidance available suggests nearly all TAF sites will see fog, even BTV. Since the overall weather pattern tomorrow morning won`t be much different than this morning, used what happened this morning as a guide for what is expected late tonight. Once fog burns off, it will be VFR area wide. Again, very light surface winds everywhere for the period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nash NEAR TERM...JMG/Nash SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Nash/Verasamy

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