Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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416 FXUS61 KBTV 230744 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 244 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Generally fair weather is expected across the North Country for Thanksgiving through Friday with a period of lake effect snow showers across the western Adirondacks tonight. Temperatures will be seasonably cool today, but moderate to above normal levels on Friday. The next chance for widespread precipitation will be on Saturday, mainly in the form of rain, with another cold front crossing the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 244 AM EST Thursday...Mainly quiet weather is expected for most of the region over the next 36 hours with the only real concern being some light lake effect snow working into the western Adirondacks for a period tonight. Thanksgiving Day will start with mainly dry conditions and varying amounts of cloud cover as low level moisture remains trapped below a subsidence inversion. Latest IR imagery does indicate that the drier air aloft is beginning to win out, so I do expect low clouds to scour out through the morning into partly sunny skies by this afternoon. Also, based on a few surface obs and radar imagery, can`t rule out some flurries where low clouds are more persistent. Highs will be on the chilly side of normal and range through the 30s. Heading into this evening, a weak surface front and shortwave trough passing north of the border will shift the low/mid level flow to the southwest allowing a lake effect snow band to develop off Lake Ontario. Consensus among the hi-res CAM models is that the band will briefly shift over portions of southern St. Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York from about 00-06Z before moving south and dissipating as the flow weakens and turns more westerly. Don`t expect any big travel impacts, but we could see a dusting to perhaps an inch in spots, especially in the NY Route 3 corridor around Star Lake and Wanakena. In the wake of the upper trough passage tonight, high pressure builds back into the region for Friday with a quiet yet mild day on tap as southwesterly flow begins to increase again with another low passing to the northwest of the region. No precipitation is expected over the forecast area, far removed from any deep moisture, but temps should warm nicely into the 40s area-wide under partly to mostly sunny skies, especially across central and southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 PM EST Wednesday...Energy of next northern stream shortwave to our north as it approaches for Saturday with associated cold front. The timing looks like any precipitation will hold off til early morning hours of Saturday. It will be cold enough Friday night for some -shsn mixed with -shra when precipitation arrives early Sat morning with lows in the 20s/30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 322 PM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned cold front swings through Saturday with little fanfare as largely moisture starved and on the heels of this leading shortwave is another short wave Sat ngt-Sun to deepen the trough across the northeast and bring more instability snow showers on Sunday. There may be some isold/sct traveling issues come Sunday with the mountain snow showers but nothing widespread or significant. By Monday...trough exits with ridging developing in response to developing deep trof in the Rockies that will eventually lift across the Great Lakes and eventually our area by late next week. High pressure positioned to our south and SW flow at all levels means another warm up. It will still be chilly on Monday but then we`re under the influence of southwest flow thru mid week with temperatures in the 40s and possible 50s by mid week. By Wednesday, discrepancies in handling the Rockies system with GFS less developed and quickly ejecting toward the east, while ECMWF has a more developed system with slower movement toward our area with Canadian closer to GFS. WPC shows warm frontal lifting Tue Ngt/early Wed with front likely moving through late Wed and will play it as such. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Low level moisture trapped below an inversion will keep SCT-BKN VFR/MVFR around through much of the remainder of the night, with some clearing in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. After 12Z, mid and high level clouds will be on the increase through the remainder of the period with some lake effect snow showers shifting into portions of the Adirondacks and specifically KSLK after 02Z. Northwest winds mainly 5-10kts overnight turn south/southwest by mid-day. A few gusts at KMPV/KRUT up to 20kts through 09Z. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Lahiff is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.