Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250222 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 922 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 922 PM EST SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 9 PM REVEALS BATCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY SKIRTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA UP UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. I`VE HAD TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED AREAL COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF D-2" STILL LOOK GOOD. FRONTAL TIMING STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HOURS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE REST OF VERMONT. EXPECT A RAPID TEMPERATURE FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS NORTH AND THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SOUTH (WITH SHARPER TEMPERATURE FALLS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT).
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECWMF WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 341 PM EST SATURDAY...QUITE A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AS ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA BOMBING OUT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. MODELS SPREAD SNOW FURTHER WEST INTO VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER ON TUESDAY AS IT HAS THE LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BENCHMARK AT 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 18Z TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN THE SUPER-BLEND POPS ON TUESDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. MODELS SHOW SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL GONE HIGHER THAN SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR SNOW SHOWERS 06-12Z. ONLY MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS ANTICIPATED...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE TAF SITES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT W-NW...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG P-GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR LATE MORNING SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH EQUIPMENT...WGH

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