Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161802 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 102 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1033 AM EST TUESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE... SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. DELAYED PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AREAS TILL AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUS FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG AND KEEPS LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALSO...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. GIVEN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE USED THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS FOR TODAY FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 357 AM EST TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLEET...BUT WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE HINTING AT UP TO A TENTH OF ICE ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...AND SOME LOCAL SHELTERED AREAS JUST BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HINTING AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SLEET BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES ALSO DOING THE SAME...AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN IS INDICATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY FREEZING RAIN OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ONLY PUT MORE STRESS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. EXPECTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT KMSS AND KSLK THIS EVENING... AND OVERSPREADS ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT KMSS...KSLK AND KMPV. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SITES SHOULD SEE MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...SND SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...SND

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