Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190748 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 348 AM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure remains over the North Country through Sunday. Temperatures slowly climb back toward normal over the weekend into early next week before a mid week trough brings another round of well below normal temps for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1021 PM EDT Saturday...Few more tweaks to previous forecast for this late evening update. Main change was to increase temps just a bit more in southern areas based on increased cloud cover. Otherwise, remainder of forecast is in good shape. Have a good night. Previous Discussion...Dry weather with temperatures slightly cooler than seasonal normals will continue tonight through Sunday night. Clipper system is staying south of our area, not really even seeing clouds from this system yet. Some cloud will make it into our Southern zones overnight. Have used colder guidance overnight because most models don`t have a handle on how clear we are today and should be for most of the overnight hours. Upper level and surface ridges will remain over the region through Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Monday will feature dry weather and light winds with a narrow ridge of high pressure in control across the North Country. By 21z/Mon, 850mb temps moderate to -2C to -3C, and should see valley highs in the upr 30s to lwr 40s as a result. Will see falling mid-level heights Monday night as stronger westerly flow begins to breakdown the 700-500mb ridge across New England. This will also be in response to the polar vortex moving sewd across Hudson Bay into n-central Quebec during the day Tuesday. Should see increasing mid-level clouds Monday night (lows mainly 25-30F), followed by possible snow showers or snow squalls with passage of shallow arctic front from NW-SE across our region Tuesday aftn. The 00z NAM shows CAPE values of 100-200 J/kg preceding the front associated with steep lapse rates, and 3-6 Snow Squall Parameter values after 18Z/Tue. Temperatures should be marginal - in the mid-upr 30s - preceding the front, and given the time of day and March sun angle, don`t foresee any significant impacts from any snow squalls that do develop (other than briefly low visibility) with snow melting on contact on road sfcs. May see some lingering effect of a few icy spots on roadways after sunset Tuesday evening. Temperatures should drop below freezing across the region after 6-7pm Tuesday evening.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Cold temperatures expected Tuesday night thru Wednesday associated with NW flow and low-level CAA. 850mb temps reach a minimum of around -24C to -25C at 12z/Wed. Looking for lows in the single digits to lower teens at daybreak Wednesday, and only recovering into the upr teens to lower 20s for highs on Wednesday. May see some continued mtn snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, resulting in 1-2" in spots across the higher terrain. High pressure brings generally quiet weather Wed Night/Thu/Friday morning. Will see moderating temperatures thru the period, with highs near freezing Thursday, and then into the low-mid 40s by Friday. South to SW return flow develops Thursday night into Friday as sfc high pressure is expected to drift east of New England. Should see building mid-upr level heights as well, with a low-level warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley region Friday aftn. This will allow for increasing clouds and the development of (mainly) rain showers by Friday aftn/Friday night with increased isentropic ascent and WAA pattern. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF both suggest that we will emerge into the warm sector Saturday with 850mb temps +5 to +7C as warm front lifts into srn Quebec. Breezy conditions are likely (gusts 30-35mph) under mostly cloudy skies, but highs in the upr 40s to lower 50s appear likely for Saturday. May continue to see some scattered rain showers with a cold front approaching from the west late in the day Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the period as a ridge of high pressure remains over Vermont and northern New York. Winds will remain light throughout the period at 10 knots or less. 06Z Monday through Thursday... 06Z Monday - 00Z Tuesday...VFR/high pressure overall. 00Z Tuesday - 00Z Wednesday...Possible MVFR ceilings as short wave trough passes through the region. 00Z Wednesday - Onwards...VFR/high pressure overall. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...WGH/MV

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