Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252321 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 721 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil early fall weather will persist through Monday, as a large area of Canadian high pressure crosses the region. The crisp air mass will allow areas frost to develop once again tonight, with lows generally ranging through the 30s. Developing southerly winds will allow for moderating temperatures on Monday, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s in most valley locations. A frontal system approaching from the west will bring our next rainfall event Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 718 PM EDT Sunday...For tonight, surface high pressure extending wrn Quebec southward into central NY/PA will drift very slowly ewd. Lingering fair wx cumulus clouds have dissipated with onset of diurnal cooling cycle, and will just see a few cirrus from time to time drifting ewd from the ern Great Lakes, per IR imagery at 2300Z. With little airmass change from last night and winds aloft lighter, we should see even better radiative cooling conditions than this morning. Despite 925-850mb temps warmer than last night, surface temps area-wide should be a few degrees cooler producing more areal coverage of frost. Have maintained frost advisories and freeze warnings for just about all of the BTV CWA, excluding Grand Isle County where warmer Lake Champlain waters should keep temps in the upper 30s to low 40s. Elsewhere, lows will widely ranging through the 30s, with some upper 20s possible in the Northeast Kingdom and locally low/mid 20s in the colder hollows of the Northern Adirondacks (i.e. KSLK). In addition, unlike last night where winds aloft mitigated fog development, expect to see some patchy dense fog develop in the usual climo favored river valleys after midnight. On Monday, the aforementioned high shifts off the New England coast allowing winds to shift to the south and temperatures to warm to more seasonal values in the mid to upper 60s. We`ll start the Monday under full sunshine with any morning fog burning off, but as we progress into the afternoon we anticipate some increasing mid and upper level clouds from west as a large closed low approaches. Any rain showers associated with this system should hold off until Monday night though. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM EDT Sunday...Models continue to be consistent with large 500mb trough associated with surface closed low pressure system over southwestern Ontario with a frontal boundary extending southward across the eastern Great Lakes moving eastward. This system will bring a strong 850mb jet of 35-45kts across the region from west to east Monday night and PWATs greater than 1 inch. Latest NAM and GFS show low level deformation with the front weakening as it moves across the North Country Tuesday morning. Therefore expect best chances for rain showers across Northern New York and especially in SW facing slopes as the low level jet will lead to shadowing affects on leeward facing slopes and valleys. On Tuesday, bulk of precip will affect the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom but with SW flow continuing and the cold front bringing cooler air over Lake Ontario, the St Lawrence valley could see some lake effect rain showers. Expect precip to end Tuesday night as the frontal system moves into the Atlantic, while the 500mb low retrogrades towards Chicago. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 430 PM EDT Sunday...With 500mb low becoming cutoff, there could still be slight to low chances for rain showers throughout the period as models have difficulty determining movement of the low. It does appear that bulk of energy will be south and west with light northeast flow persisting over the North Country. This will keep clouds around with temperatures during the day reaching the 60s and and at night generally in the 40s throughout the long term. && .AVIATION /23Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Through 18Z Monday...Mainly VFR conditions are once again expected through the period, with the typical exception being the high likelihood of VLIFR in FG/FZFG at KSLK/KMPV from 05-13Z. North- Northwest winds 8-10 knots with gusts 16-20 knots persist through the daylight hours, then abates to nearly calm overnight. Outlook 18z Monday through Friday... 18z Mon - 00z Tue: Mainly VFR. 00z Tue - 00z Wed: VFR trending to a mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered showers. 00z Wed - 00z Sat: Mainly VFR with isolated MVFR cigs. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ003-004-007- 008-010-017. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ002-005-006- 009-011-012-016-018-019. NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ026-027- 029>031-034. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ028-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/Lahiff NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Lahiff

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