Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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345 FXUS61 KBTV 230505 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 105 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weather will remain dry through Wednesday night with surface high pressure in control, along with a gradual moderation in temperatures. As the surface high shifts east of New England later in the week, warmer and more humid conditions will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area Thursday into Thursday night. A few lingering showers are possible on Friday. However, generally looking for a return to dry conditions later Friday and through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds back across southeastern Canada and New England.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1242 AM EDT Tuesday...Synoptically quiescent conditions with strong surface high pressure centered this morning across the srn tier of NY and PA. Early AM valley fog will dissipate between 12-13Z, leaving generally sunny conditions. A chilly start with min temperatures generally mid 40s to lower 50s. As the surface ridge axis shifts southeast of the North Country early Tuesday, winds will become SW to WSW. Winds generally at or below 10 mph, but slightly stronger gradient flow across nrn NY will bring sw winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph across the St. Lawrence Valley and nrn Adirondacks 15Z-23Z. Will see some moderation in temperatures compared to Monday. Afternoon maximum temperatures expected to reach 75-80F in most locations. High pressure drifts east of NJ tonight with continued quiet conditions across the North Country. Good radiative cooling setup will bring redevelopment of fog in climatologically favored river valleys 05-12Z Wednesday. PoPs NIL thru the near-term period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 331 PM EDT Monday...Broad 500mb ridge builds over the eastern US during the short term period then begins to flatten Wednesday night with next approaching shortwave. Surface ridge centered to the south will keep the area in enough of a pressure gradient light south to southwest low level flow, bringing in warmer temperatures and slowly increasing moisture. Warming trend with overnight lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s Tuesday night and 60s Wednesday night. 850 mb temps Wednesday around 17C will support highs Wednesday in the 80s. Mid/upper level humidity will be low, with clear nights and sunny days. Exception is in the usual protected spots where winds will go calm, and radiation fog develops. Have added patchy valley fog for Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Monday...Uncertain forecast for Thursday with approaching trough out of the northern plains. 500 mb flow flattens out and becomes west-southwesterly oriented as upper ridge is suppressed by approaching trough. GFS and ECMWF indicate a shortwave trough racing ahead of the long wave trough, moving west to east across southern Quebec. Both models show precip during the day Thursday mainly to the north, but some bleeds over the border into northern NY. 12z Models would indicate any rain from this would be Thursday morning, however difficult to time features in fast westerly flow and kept chance pops going into the afternoon as well, thinking daytime heating would continue precip. Again, not a lot of confidence in this portion of the forecast & will have to see how things play out. Trough that should be the main show over the northern plains Wed night and Thursday becomes more of an open wave and also tracks north of the border across Quebec. Trailing cold front to move through at the surface during the day Friday. Chc POPs as a result, but with front so far removed from upper support don`t think there will be much organization to it. High pressure builds for the weekend with generally quiet weather, then introduced low chance pops for next system on Monday, but GFS & ECMWF differ so taking a wait and see approach. Temps...persistence for Thursday & Friday with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s, then cold front Friday knocks back temps to 70s and 50s Saturday and Saturday night. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Through 12Z Wednesday...Clear skies, calm winds and near-surface moisture fluxes from recent rainfall expected to produce LIFR to VLIFR radiational fog as mid-40s crossover temps are reached after 05Z. SLK and MPV are the TAFs most likely to see fog and have carried 1/4SM FG VV001 06-12Z at those locations. Brief intervals of IFR can`t be ruled out thru 12z at the remaining TAF locations given generally favorable conditions for patchy fog development. Fog dissipates between 12-13Z and then generally VFR/SKC areawide. Winds becoming southwest around 4-8 kts Tuesday, except around 10kts at MSS/SLK with gusts across nrn NY 16-18kts at times thru the daylight hrs. Clear again Tuesday night with high pressure in place with light winds controlled by local orographic influences. Will see LIFR fog redevelop at SLK/MPV 06-12Z Wednesday period. NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically transmitted, we will lift that restriction. Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday... 12Z Wed - 18Z Thurs...VFR under high pressure. Only exception will be LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z Wednesday night. 18Z Thurs - 00Z Sat...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers and thunderstorms later Thursday afternoon and evening, with scattered showers continuing into Thursday night. Generally drying out Friday with mainly VFR conditions and W-NW winds. 00Z Sat onward...VFR with building high pressure.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... As of 1051 PM EDT Monday...The AWOS (automated weather observing system) at the Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport (KRUT) remains out of service at this time. The FAA has advised us that a new computer is on order to fix the problem at the KRUT AWOS. The FAA has also told us that they have no estimate at this time as to when the KRUT AWOS will be returned to service. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Hanson AVIATION...Banacos EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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