Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141712 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 112 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AREAS OF FROST WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 106 PM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING THE START OF A SLOW EROSION OF THE STRATUS LAYER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS WE BEGIN TO GET SOME BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING WITH PEAK IN DAYTIME HEATING. WILL SEE A TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST BASED ON THESE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. CONTINUED N-NW WINDS AT 5-10 MPH. CONCERNING THE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...BASED ON EXPECTATION OF LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S. ALSO ADDED WRN CLINTON COUNTY TO THE FROST ADVISORY. REMAINDER OF THE FROST ADVISORY ACROSS VERMONT REMAINS THE SAME FOR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE LOWER PASSUMPSIC...CONNECTICUT...AND WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 505 AM EDT SUNDAY...A DRY DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY... SO EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 334 AM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR AT BTV/RUT/MPV/MSS...VFR/MVFR AT PBG...AND MVFR/IFR AT SLK. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...AFFECTING MPV/SLK WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS TODAY...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT PBG WITH A LAKE BREEZE. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR. 00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-012-016. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS/WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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