Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220751 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 351 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will taper off west to east across the north country during the pre-dawn hours. Lighter rain showers and overcast skies will linger today, resulting in relatively cool temperatures. Dry conditions return on Tuesday with a brief period of surface high pressure, before another low pressure system brings more rain for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Monday...Ended rain west to east much more quickly with this update as radar trends showing back end of precip moving into western NY state, and high resolution model reflectivity showing it as well. Updated grids with a mix of the model reflectivity which has a dry period mainly this morning. Another area of scattered showers are possible this afternoon as a final weak shortwave trough moves through the region to finish things off. Also backed off QPF with the rain ending earlier. No changes to temps/winds/sky with this update. Best large-scale forcing slides to our east between 12-15Z Monday, but NAM RH profiles indicate continued saturated conditions in 950-850mb layer, and skies will generally remain cloudy with low overcast in place. The low-level inversion layer in place will keep sfc temps cool, despite 850mb thermal ridge in place (+10C to +11C) across nrn NY. Sfc high temps generally low- mid 50s east of the Greens, upr 50s in the Champlain Valley, and upr 50s to lower 60s across nrn NY. Maintained a chance of showers Monday afternoon. There is some indication of a trailing sfc trough/convergence line moving ewd across nrn NY into VT late in the afternoon, which may result in an additional period of (brief) rain shower activity. A weak sfc ridge builds newd into our region from western NY Monday night. This results in lowering inversion layer and light near-sfc winds. With moist soils, will see combination of abundant low clouds and patchy fog areawide. Moist layer is quite shallow, so not anticipating any precipitation. Lows Monday night mainly 43-48F. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Weak ridge both aloft and at the surface build across our cwa on Weds...ahead of developing full latitude trof over the MS River Valley. This ridging should keep moisture and precip associated with weak low pres riding along the eastern seaboard to our east on Tuesday Night into Weds...with mainly a dry forecast anticipated. Progged 850mb temps between 9-11c...support highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer valleys on Weds. Mid/upper level closed cyclonic circulation over the MS River Valley slowly moves eastward toward the OH Valley on Weds Night....with southerly winds and increasing clouds. Given the slow movement of the closed system from the flow aloft...will keep Weds Night dry with temps mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...A period of unsettled weather likely Thursday into Friday...with occasional rain showers and breezy southerly winds. Closed mid/upper level circulation will slowly track toward the Mid Atlantic States as 998mb low pres is located near Binghamton, NY by 00z Friday. The combination of strong southerly flow between 850 and 500mb will help advect deeper layer moisture into our cwa...with PWS >1.0 developing. The initial warm air advection surge will produce a period of showers on Thursday with qpf values generally between 0.10 and 0.25. Some downslope shadowing/enhancement on southeast 925mb to 850mb of 30 to 40 knots is likely. Meanwhile...strong 5h energy rounds mid/upper level trof base on Thursday Night...with system becoming vertically stacked over southern New England by Friday. The combination of easterly 925mb to 700mb flow and favorable energy aloft will produce another round of light to moderate rainfall on THursday night into Friday. Depending upon exact track of low pres...will determine placement of heaviest qpf...but nose of 850mb jet would suggest central/eastern VT. Thinking additional qpf will range between 0.25 western areas to 0.75 central/eastern VT...with around 0.50 in the CPV. Will mention likely pops for this period. Friday night into Saturday...system will slowly lift northeast with mainly light terrain driven/upslope showers persisting into Saturday. Difficult to time individual pieces of s/w energy in the northwest flow aloft...but thinking lingering mid level moisture and favorable upslope flow...some rain shower activity is possible into Saturday. Sunday...Still some uncertainty on Sunday with timing of warm front feature and associated potential for showers. At this time...Sunday Morning looks dry...with a chance of showers increasing during the afternoon hours...along with increasing humidity levels. Any precip looks to be light and generally under 0.20". For temps...mainly the mid 60s to mid 70s For Thursday...but only mid/upper 50s to mid 60s with widespread clouds/rain showers for Friday with coolest values across the eastern mountains. Weekend temps mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs and lows mid 40s to mid 50s. No major heat anticipated with general mid/upper level trof across the NE Conus this upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Rain ending west to east but little effect on flight categories with most visibilities and cigs VFR. Ceilings to gradually lower to MVFR throughout the day, even as rain dissipates low level moisture remains trapped below the subsidence inversion under building high pressure aloft. low level winds become gusty during the day out of the south with gusts into 20-25kt range. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 231 PM EDT Sunday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect starting at midnight (04Z Monday). Gradient flow increases out of the south during the pre- dawn hours Monday, with sustained winds over Lake Champlain reaching 15-25kts after midnight and waves building to 2-4 feet. The highest waves are expected across the northern portion of the broad lake south of Grand Isle. South winds will remain generally in the 15-25kt range during the daylight hours on Monday, before diminishing Monday evening. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Hanson MARINE...Team BTV

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