Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking eastward across central Quebec will push a cold front through the North Country this afternoon with scattered showers developing from mid-day through this evening. Behind the front, some scattered snow showers are expected tonight into Wednesday, with drier conditions on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Unsettled weather returns for the end of the week and into the weekend though, as another storm system will bring valley rain and mountain snow to the area Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 129 PM EDT Tuesday...Composite radar loop showing rain showers associated with northern stream upper shortwave coming across the Champlain valley at this time. Have lowered the pops in some areas further south and west. Further south, composite radar loop showing some showers associated with upper shortwave over the mid Atlantic states moving into southern Vermont at this time. Thus, will keep in a chance of showers there for the remainder of this afternoon. Previous Discussion...Little overall change from previous forecast thinking as the North Country will be in between mid- level troughs today, one to our south and another to our north. Northern trough and associated surface low will sag southward through the day dragging a cold front into the forecast area this afternoon and tonight. Abundant low level moisture currently over the area combined with some additional moisture from the southern stream system and frontal lift will aid in developing scattered rain showers across the region today. Precip will come in 2 waves with the first round shifting from the St. Lawrence Valley this morning into northern portions of New York and the northern Champlain Valley before additional showers develop across more of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Based on current upstream radar and modeled reflectivity expect showers to be scattered in nature and hit or miss in any one single location. Temps will continue to run mild with highs ranging through the 40s with a couple of spot 50s possible. For tonight, aforementioned cold front slips through the region with and lingering precipitation transitioning from rain to snow showers, especially across the higher terrain. Modeled Froude numbers show increasing blocked flow overnight with winds shifting to the northwest and this combined with the parent upper trough and weak shortwave energy passing through supports some locally enhanced precipitation across the western slopes of the Greens backing up all the way into the northern Champlain Valley late tonight into early Wednesday, before becoming unblocked by Wednesday afternoon. Ptype will be all snow by this time with low temps tonight around freezing, so some light accumulations are possible, perhaps up to an inch in the lower elevations and a couple inches over the high peaks. Temps rise Wednesday afternoon into the mid 30s to low 40s so any precip leftover by that time will transition back to a rain/snow mix. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday....The upper trough and attendant backside energy then depart east on Wednesday night with broad, albeit short-lived ridging at lower and mid levels building across the area later at night into Thursday. As such, any northern mountain snow showers/flurries will gradually end Wednesday night setting the stage for a partly to mostly sunny day on Thursday. Low temperatures a bit tricky and will be dependent on amount of clearing or lack thereof, but generally stuck with blended guidance showing values in the 20s to locally near 30 in the Champlain Valley and slightly cooler in northern NY where clearing probabilities are higher. Thursday highs from the upper 30s to mid 40s still look on track as advertised by prior forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...By Thursday night mainly clear skies gradually give way to increasing mid and higher level clouds as first signs of next system arrive on warm thermal advection rippling in aloft. There will be increasing chances of light snows across our far southwestern counties toward morning, but uncertainty on arrival time of precipitation puts low confidence on any potential minor accumulations in these areas through sunrise Friday. Lows mainly in the 20s. By Friday into Friday night, deeper moisture will ride northeast into our area on increasing warm thermal advection and a fairly robust southwesterly 850 mb jet as low pressure tracks northeast from the Ohio Valley. Thus will continue the idea of widespread precipitation arriving southwest to northeast over time into Friday evening as highs top out from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Depending on arrival time, some of the morning precipitation may fall in the form of wet snow across the southwestern half of the forecast area before a transition to all rain below 1500 feet by late morning/early afternoon. Any accumulations should be minor to negligible. Higher up, precipitation may fall as a mix of rain/snow or even all snow for elevations above 2500 feet given wet bulbing processes and 850 mb temperatures hovering around the 0C mark give or take a degree or two. Several inches of wet snow will be possible in these higher elevation areas, especially by Friday night as thermal profiles cool slightly and snow levels lower accordingly. A mix with wet snow may even occur to the Champlain/St. Lawrence Valley floors for a brief while Friday night, but little if any accumulation is expected. Looking further out, a general trend toward quiet weather is expected on Saturday as scattered rain/snow shower activity gradually tapers off and sets the stage for a mainly dry Sunday/Monday. Temperatures will remain close to seasonal early April norms with highs ranging through the 40s and overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 18Z Wednesday...Highly variable flight conditions with scattered rain showers continue through the evening as a cold front shifts into the region. VFR conditions over Vermont TAF sites will deteriorate to MVFR this afternoon and evening with brief period of IFR vsbys possible mainly in the afternoon. MVFR conditions at KPBG will persist through Wednesday morning. Further west, KMSS & KSLK continue to have LIFR conditions to VLIFR possible, then gradually improving early to mid Wednesday morning. Areas of fog development possible tonight, with MVFR- IFR vsbys. Generally expect all terminals to see improvement on Wednesday. Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday... 18Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in scattered scattered rain/snow showers, mainly across central/northern Vermont. 00Z Thursday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR. Isolated snow showers over higher terrain. 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday...VFR under high pressure. 12Z Friday through 06Z Sunday...Areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow. 06Z Sunday onward...VFR conditions under building high pressure.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...WGH/Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...KGM

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