Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170733 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 333 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY TWEAK WAS TO MATCH TEMPERATURES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. DRY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE FOR MOST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE EAST/NORTHEAST. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA. && .CLIMATE... BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY... APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884). SITERECORD DATE KBTV 13F 1971 KMPV 17F 2003 KMSS 20F 2003 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...RJS/NEILES CLIMATE...JMG

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