Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271923 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.
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As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Warm temperatures continue into the overnight with isolated showers/thunderstorms coming to an end shortly after sunset as mid level drying continues to suppress convective development. Temperatures will fall into the 60s with generally clearing skies as 500mb ridge builds over the region throughout the weekend. Warm air continues to filter in with increasing dewpoints. With plentiful warming, instability will increase on Saturday. While there is a lack of forcing, diurnal heating may be enough to trigger a few convective showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and South Central Vermont during the afternoon. Max temperatures expected to be similar to today, 80s to low 90s, but more clouds possible as we see an increase in moisture with PWATS nearing 1.5 inches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 423 AM EDT Friday...saturday and saturday night will be mainly dry and warm with large upper level ridge over the area as well as high pressure at the surface. temperatures will be almost twenty degrees warmer than normal for maximum temperatures as they nudge 90 in the warmest spots. on sunday upper level ridge will finally begin to slide eastward away from our area...upper level trof will approach from the great lakes region. upper level shortwaves move into our area and showers will become likely by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 423 AM EDT Friday...sunday night into monday a cold front will approach from the great lakes region with a low lifting well north of our area. cold front will move across the area during the daytime hours and showers will be likely for monday. then upper level flow will become more flat and westerly and a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the north country. drier warm weather will continue from tuesday through thursday. next chance for showers will be friday as another cold front approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /19Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 18Z Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will mainly affect central and southern Vermont this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have been short-lived, but greatest potential of TAF sites being affected will be KMPV/KRUT. MVFR/IFR fog development possible mainly at KMSS/KSLK after 06z/Saturday. Otherwise, Saturday will start with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. There`s the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. Areas with the greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be the Adirondacks, southern Champlain Valley into South-Central Vermont. Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016 thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of 90F was April 17, 2002. Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as follows: 5/27 5/28 BTV - Burlington 91 in 1944 92 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1960 88 in 1978 MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 89 in 1978 St Johnsbury 89 in 1914 93 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 76 in 1978 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...KGM CLIMATE...KGM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.