Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190907 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 407 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. THE COLD AIR WILL LIFT OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR STREAMS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 407 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED FOR TODAY AS NORTHERN EDGE OF SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER TIME AS RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER WE`LL STILL BE LOOKING AT QUITE A CHILLY DAY ON TAP AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE NOVEMBER NORMS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST SPOTS. AS FLOW BACKS THROUGH THE DAY...WEAKENING LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD IN TANDEM...ONCE AGAIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO ACCUMULATIONS SEEN ACROSS THE SNOWBELT PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY YESTERDAY WHERE TOTALS OF 1-2 FEET WERE OBSERVED IN SOME CASES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 407 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BY TONIGHT ANOTHER VERY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE. WITH MEAN PBL FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REFORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL INTO JEFFERSON/SW ST LAWRENCE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WHERE LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT FOR SAKE OF CLARITY AND TO MINIMIZE CONFUSION I`VE OPTED NOT TO CARRY LAKE SNOW HEADLINES FOR A FEW HOURS SO AS TO GIVE SEPARATION BETWEEN MOST RECENT LAKE SNOW EVENT AND THE UPCOMING SECOND ROUND WHICH WILL BE COVERED BY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LATER THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ON THURSDAY SECONDARY SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS OUR LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS WITH POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT NORTH AND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN/NW CLINTON COUNTIES AS STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY SO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A HYBRID LAKE SNOW/SNOW SQUALL EVENT BY LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR NRN NY COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELTS. HIGHS A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 25 TO 35. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE STRONG FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH WINDS TRENDING GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LAKE SNOWS SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE TUG. SNOW TOTAL IN THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND LIKELY TO EXCEED 1 FOOT. PER FRONTAL PARAMETERS DISCUSSED ABOVE A BRIEF HEAVY SHSN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN DACKS INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF VT AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...WITH ANY ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO OROGRAPHIC DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINOR HOWEVER...GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS. LOWS AGAIN QUITE CHILLY BY MORNING...TEENS TO AROUND 20. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP WITH ANY LINGERING MTN FLURRIES/SHSN ENDING THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE OVER TIME ALONG WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE SO DESPITE THE CHILLY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S IT WON`T FEEL NEARLY AS UNPLEASANT AS PRIOR DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 407 AM EST WEDNESDAY..AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WIND FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS NORTHWEST, ENDING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AND MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. ON SATURDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE-FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INCREASES DURING THE DAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION. GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, RAIN EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE SNOW MAY MIX IN. WARM UP WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND IS SLOW TO GAIN MOMENTUM EASTWARD.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND STILL PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z; WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM NW TO SE...CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME -SHSN IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND KMSS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AT KPBG AND KBTV BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. THE TROUGH IS ALSO PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SOUTH OF KSLK BY 08Z. BY MID MORNING, EXPECT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND ALL TERMINALS DEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND BEGINS TO PIVOT BACK NORTHWARD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS BAND...MAINLY AFFECTING KSLK. AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY, MORE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS AND GUSTS OF 15-25KT PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BETWEEN 8-16KTS. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY - SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY ACROSS MTNS. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL COME INTO PLAY WITH MVFR AND OCCNL IFR SHSN MORE PREVALENT. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...NONE. NY...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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