Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210515 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 115 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the North Country through the evening hours with just some lingering showers during the overnight hours. Scattered showers are expected to develop once again on Wednesday...but dry weather moves into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. High temperatures will generally be right around seasonal normals. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 111 AM EDT Wednesday...No changes with this update. Previous update for timing of clouds and precipitation is playing out well with radar showing light showers moving into western St. Lawrence county in area of PVA along leading edge of trough Axis. Comma head in precipitation evident associated with the vort center which will lift northeast into southern Quebec through the morning. Trailing showers will spread east across the forecast area this morning. Lows remain on track to be mild by early summer standards in the mid 50s to low 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 357 PM EDT Tuesday...Shortwave trough mentioned in the near term moves across the area Wednesday morning and enhances the potential for some showers in the morning and then since the area remains in cyclonic flow aloft and cooler air aloft leads to some destabilization...would expect more scattered showers to develop. Thunder threat to remain low...even less than on Tuesday. West to northwest flow aloft develops Wednesday night and Thursday and pronounced drying should take place for no precipitation. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s...but then warm air advection takes place on Thursday for highs in the 70s to around 80. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 357 PM EDT Tuesday...Active start to the extended period as an upper trof shears out north of the Great Lakes, and a surface low and attendant frontal boundary approach from the west. Medium range guidance in pretty good agreement into the early part of the weekend regarding timing and placement of the features, yet qpf differences are still noted. Some modest surface instability and a fair amount of deep layer shear would suggest thunder, possibly with some organization is a good bet during the day Friday. Will continue to carry pretty robust pops through the day Friday into Friday night. ECMWF is pretty wet with this system with qpf in the 1.5" range... the GFS is lower with amounts generally around .75-1". Will still have to monitor for heavy rain potential as GFS precipitable water values once again increase into the 1.5-2" range in the moisture rich southwesterly flow ahead of this next system. Shortwave and surface boundary moving east of the area by early Saturday bringing organized precipitation east of the area. Broad upper trof remains over the northeast with westerly flow and weak surface ridging through the early part of next week. With cyclonic upper flow and cooler air aloft some showers remain possible into early next week despite the weak surface ridge. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions for the next few hours at all terminals with only isolated showers lingering into the early evening. Another area of showers expected to move northeastward from the eastern Great Lakes will bring chance of showers or VCSH and possibly some MVFR cigs at MSS and SLK after 04Z. Expect the potential for these showers to shift east into the Champlain Valley after sunrise, diminishing throughout the morning. Towards early morning, mainly clear skies and subsiding winds over MPV bringing the potential for MVFR conditions between 08z-12z. Wednesday morning will see VFR conditions persisting throughout the day. Gusty winds at MSS and SLK will subside overnight with most terminals between 5-10 kts through sunrise. Winds will pick up out of the SW around 10-15kts with gusts up to 25 kts developing Wind direction will shift W/NW in the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...KGM

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