Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301746 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 146 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY FALL WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOLER...CLOUDIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 146 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER STILL PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND ALSO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER...SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE HAD TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE IN CLOUD COVERED AREA...ESPECIALLY AT MONTPELIER (MPV) WHERE IT WAS STILL 59 AS OF 1 PM EDT...AND 56 AT MASSENA (MSS). CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...FROM TONIGHT ONWARD INTO THURSDAY PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE/DRY FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NRN NY/VT WEATHER AS AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED H5 LOW SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST. CLOUDS AGAIN QUITE VARIABLE WITH PARTIAL SUN EXPECTED HERE AND THERE...MOST PREVALENT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST AND LESS SO EASTERN COUNTIES WITH EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER EASTERLY MARITIME PUSH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH DAILY HIGHS WED/THU FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S (COOLEST ERN VT) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 434 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR AWAITING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS AND THE INTERNATIONAL MODELING SUITE...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING REMAIN APPARENT. THAT BEING SAID...IT`S PRETTY CLEAR THAT A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM DRY WEATHER/AMPLIFIED RIDGE PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING BASED ON ABOVE GUIDANCE AND GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTION OF SHARPLY NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) TELECONNECTION INTO EARLY OCTOBER. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF IN PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS...I`M MORE APT TO BELIEVE THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING THOUGH. THEREFORE...WHILE I STILL THINK LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED I`VE SLOWED THE TIMING BACK UNTIL SATURDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN NY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR VT. GIVEN PROGGED SHARP 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS AND SYNOPTIC/FRONTAL FORCING...A FINE LINE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE FRONT WOULD BE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO. I`VE ACTUALLY SHOWN RAIN AS OPPOSED TO RAIN SHOWERS AS POPS TREND TO LIKELY TO BETTER SHOW THAT SCENARIO. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SENDS 925 MB TEMPS TO AROUND +3 TO +5C BY SUNDAY AND MOSTLY STAY AROUND THAT RANGE INTO MONDAY. ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE- EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT WITH SLIGHT MODERATION TO TEMPS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...HODGEPODGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING PRIMARILY FROM CEILINGS. SOUTHEAST STRATUS DECK FROM BACKDOOR FRONT STILL CONTINUES AT MPV AND TO SOME DEGREE AT RUT AS WELL...MEANWHILE STRATUS LAYER AT MSS FROM FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WITH NORTHEAST FLOW. TAF FORECAST IS LARGELY BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT OBS WITH GUIDANCE POORLY DEPICTING CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT LONGEST DURATION OF IFR CEILINGS AT MSS. AS SFC LOW NEAR EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS SOUTH EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TO SLK...PBG AND BTV LATER IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS LIKELY MVFR TO IFR AT ANY OF THESE SITES. SOUTHEAST FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST AT MPV BUT LIKELY MORE IN THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT EACH TAF SITE. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WED - 00Z THU...CEILINGS TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV WITH EAST FLOW. 00Z THU - 00Z SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 06-13Z EACH DAY. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...LOCONTO

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