Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 131754 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1254 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mostly clear and cold conditions are expected tonight as surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. This area of high pressure will bring mostly sunny conditions with lighter winds for Saturday. A weak upper level disturbance will bring a few mountain snow showers late Saturday night, with clouds expected to persist across much of Vermont and northern New York on Sunday. High temperatures this weekend will mainly be in the upper teens to mid 20s. Temperatures are expected to trend back well above normal for much of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1234 PM EST Friday...Clearing trend continues across northern New York and Vermont this afternoon as colder/drier air mass moves in from the WNW. Increasing sunshine and low-level CAA has led to steep lapse rates and gusty winds, which will persist for several more hrs this afternoon. Getting 26g34kt at BTV at 1730Z, and will see some localized gusts 30-40 mph thru the mid afternoon hours. Temperatures are generally in the 20s, except around 30F at BTV and 36F at Springfield VT with some local downslope effects. Anticipate temperatures slowly falling this afternoon despite sunshine, and the falling more quickly after sunset as boundary layer decouples and skies become clear. Surface anticyclone crests over our region at 12Z Saturday. Will continue to see some gusty W-NW winds for a time tonight, and may see a period of wind chills 10 to 20 below across the Adirondacks and far nern VT before abating after 06Z. Overnight lows will be cold, but absence of snow cover will mitigate the degree of radiative cooling a bit. Looking for readings in the single digits above zero in the Champlain Valley, and zero to -10F elsewhere, coldest in the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. High pressure moves east of our longitude on Saturday with light S-SW winds developing and plenty of sunshine. Looking for highs in the upper teens to lower 20s. No precipitation is expected tonight or Saturday. A weak upper level shortwave glances far nrn/nern VT after 06Z Sunday. Have included PoPs 20-30 percent for snow showers or flurries 06-12Z Sunday, and skies trending mostly cloudy across the area. Could see a minor accumulation (dusting to 1") of very dry snow (20:1 snow-to-liquid ratios) across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern VT during the pre-dawn hours Sunday. Not expecting any travel issues. Lows not as cold Saturday night due to increasing clouds; mainly in the teens, except 5-10F across the nrn Adirondacks and the colder valleys of Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 343 AM EST Friday...The weekend simply put, will be a big bubble with no trouble. A broad dome of high pressure will be cresting aloft leading to quiet sensible weather and mostly clear skies. As the previous forecaster mentioned the NAM does hold on to a weak little 925mb shortwave trough bringing some moisture to the international border. Given multiple consecutive model runs showing it, I did add a slight, and I mean very slight, 15-17% chance for some light snow flurries across the Northeast Kingdom Saturday night. Marginal warm air advection will occur on Saturday evening so we wont see quite as cold temperatures Saturday evening but I still anticipate temps falling into the single digits above zero for most area overnight. Sunday remains quiet under the strong 1035mb high. Should be looking at clear skies with temps warming into the upper teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 343 AM EST Friday...High pressure continues to start the week and as the surface high slides offshore, southerly warm air advection will begin. Our best chance for precip will be as a low pressure system tracks up through the Great Lakes region. With the low tracking that far west of us, we get into the warm sector quickly and the warm air advection remains firmly in place. Trends in the model guidance have been to delay when the precip arrives so I think the best chance for precip to be on Wednesday morning to early afternoon. Given the warming trend expect precip type to just be snow melting to rain. Rain will continue on through Wednesday before tapering off back to snow overnight. Interestingly the 850/925/1000mb zero lines stretch all the way up to near James Bay in Canada by 12z Wednesday. With all of that warm air, expect max temps in the mid 40s with lows hovering around freezing most of the mid week. With those temps, I anticipate an early season maple syrup run for those interested parties. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions expected with clearing skies mid-late afternoon. With arctic air moving in, may see some Lake Champlain induced clouds 06-12Z Saturday, and will see SCT-BKN015-020 somewhat close to BTV for a few hrs early Sunday morning. Main band of lake clouds should be slightly to the west of BTV, so included just SCT020 in the TAF starting at 08Z Saturday attm. Only other issue are the winds, currently 24G30kt at BTV. Will see potential NW gusts in excess of 25kts thru sunset, before diminishing areawide. Should fall below 10kts by 03-04Z, and BCMG light S-SW during the day Saturday. 18z Saturday onward...Primarily VFR with surface high pressure through Monday. A weak upper level disturbance may bring some mountain snow showers 06-18Z Sunday with HIR TRRN OBSCD across the nrn Greens for a time. Next large-scale precipitation system tracks to our west Late Tuesday into Wednesday. Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR in mainly rain, possibly as early as late Tuesday...but more likely Tuesday night or Wednesday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Banacos

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