Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020222 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1022 PM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS OF THE 10 PM HOUR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 725 PM EDT TUESDAY... QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINS ATOP THE NORTHEAST. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT, A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER OUR AREA AND WESTBOUND OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND IS PROVIDING ANOTHER SOMEWHAT HAZY SUNSET. I DID OPT TO TWEAK LOW TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO CANADIAN BIAS-CORRECTED DATA, BUT IN ESSENCE REALLY JUST COSMETIC CHANGES AS VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 63 RANGE STILL EXPECTED AS PRIOR FORECAST INDICATED. NIL POPS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD 90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR BR/FG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE 06-13Z TIME FRAME, OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...JMG/NEILES

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