Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211813 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 213 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Deep low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will continue to slowly track eastward into southern Quebec today with with areas of showers through the day. An upper trough traverses the region tonight through Saturday enhancing the chance for some scattered rain showers, but high pressure returns to end the weekend on Sunday along with drier conditions and sunnier skies. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 213 PM EDT Friday...Radar loop showing rain showers over the Adirondacks and Vermont at this time. expecting this activity to come to an end by early this evening. Satellite loop showing sunny breaks across the Saint Lawrence valley at this time. This has allowed temperatures there to climb into the lower 60s at this time. Will make some adjustments to the current forecast to account for this.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Friday...High pressure will build steadily into the region Saturday night with any scattered evening showers ending across northeastern counties overnight. Lingering moisture trapped beneath a building synoptic inversion should keep ample cloud cover across the area early before skies trend partly cloudy overnight. If enough clearing develops late patchy fog may develop in a few areas. Lows a blend of available guidance offering values mainly in the 30s. A better day then on tap for Sunday as elongated high pressure bridges east from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into the northeast. Expect partial to full sunshine through the course of the day with light winds and seasonably mild temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Should be a great day for any outdoor activities. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Friday...Mainly fair and dry weather is then expected for Sunday night into Monday as high pressure generally remains in control. A weak front will attempt to drop southward into the northern tier of counties Sunday night with perhaps an outside shot of a few showers from the international border northward, but all and all this feature will be a non-player other than bringing in a few more clouds as deeper moisture will be limited. Thermal profiles suggest little airmass change into Monday, perhaps a few degrees cooler across the north as highs top out in the 50s to around 60. More uncertainty then creeps back into the forecast from Tuesday onward into Thursday of next week. Latest medium range guidance remains at odds in regard to vigorous close energy lifting northeast from the southeastern seaboard by Monday night into Tuesday with the GFS/Canadian GEM having a more westerly solution than the ECWMF, and particularly the UKMET which keeps a much slower system down across the SC/NC region until Wednesday night. Given these differences a middle of the road path will be offered until more clarity can be achieved. This will suggest mainly dry weather will continue Monday night before a gradual increase in shower chances arrive into southern counties by Tuesday afternoon and across the remainder of the area Tuesday night. Thereafter, I`ll maintain a general 20-30 percent chance of showers from Wednesday onward into Thursday as another northern stream surface front drops into the region and waffles near or just northwest of us. Hard to really pinpoint the degree or areal coverage of any showers related to this feature at this point, but I imagine there will be considerable stretches of drier weather in the this time frame. Temperatures will gradually trend milder, with widespread 60s expected from Tuesday onward into late week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 18Z Saturday...Radar loop showing scattered light rain showers across the region at 18Z Friday. Expecting this shower activity to diminish and come to an end by 00Z Saturday. Expecting plenty of low clouds to linger across the region through 18Z Saturday, with mainly MVFR/VFR ceilings expected through the period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 1055 AM EDT Friday...A flood warning is now in effect for Lake Champlain at Rouses Point, NY, as gusty southerly winds on Lake Champlain will push water northward on the lake today, with some minor flooding expected. Expecting Lake Champlain to fall below flood stage tonight as winds diminish. Water levels will be falling across southern areas of Lake Champlain such as Port Henry and Whitehall. With the current level already very close to flood stage, water already is threatening the Burlington waterfront at Perkins Pier and the King Street ferry dock, and further rises may threaten some low lying roads and other piers and docks. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff HYDROLOGY...Lahiff/WGH

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