Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 132001 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 401 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers are expected across the far northern tiers of New York and Vermont through mid morning with drier air working into the region this afternoon. High pressure responsible for the drier air will continue to influence our weather tonight and Monday with dry weather continuing. High temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday...but rebound back to normal temperatures for this time of year on Monday. Overall much of next week will remain on the dry side. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 118 PM EDT Sunday...No update needed forecast in great shape with fair weather cumulus clouds and temps warming into the upper 60s to upper 70s depending upon elevation and location. All covered well in crnt grids. Previous discussion below: Upper trough continues to move quickly across southern Quebec Province this morning and is enhancing isolated to scattered showers across southern Quebec the northern tiers of New York and Vermont. This activity will continue moving eastward and with upper trough being fairly progressive...the showers will be ending very soon across northern New York and late morning across northern Vermont. The rest of the area will remain dry today. Highs will generally be in the 70s today with better chances for sun during the afternoon hours. High pressure builds in tonight and persist over the area on Monday. No precipitation is expected in either of these periods. Flow aloft turns back to the southwest on Monday and we get right back into a warm air advection pattern...which will result in high temperatures generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 358 PM EDT Sunday...Monday night the North Country will be under high pressure as an upper level trough will be deepening over Ontario and bringing a surge of mid level moisture. As shortwave energy tracks through the area a convergent boundary sets up and begins to initiative some convective activity. PWATs aren`t that high as they range from 1.0-1.3 inch range so I dont expect much in the way of heavy rain from any of the storms that develop. Overnight any instability with shortwave will largely be capped so I only mention thunder chances in the afternoon on Tuesday when we should break whatever cap there may be. Showers will be dominated by diurnal forcing so as night comes the chances for showers will quickly come to an end on Tuesday. Quiet weather returns on Wednesday as high pressure returns. With the southerly flow Tuesday, temps will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s and then as the upper level trough clears, light cold air advection will begin. Expect lows overnight will fall into the mid 50s with low to mid 70s expected Wednesday afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 358 PM EDT Sunday...Things get a bit dicey in the longer ranged forecast as the models have quite a bit of spread for how the end of the weekend evolves. The general consensus is that we`ll be headed towards a period of unsettled weather with widespread rain showers through the end of the week. The surface high pressure will give way towards an advancing low pressure system that tracks up through the Great Lakes and into the Saint Lawrence valley. The GFS seems to be a bit of the outlier as holds on to the ridge until Thursday night keeping the North Country dry. However the rainfall from the EC seems quite overdone especially under northwest flow without much in the way of convection as the computed model CAPE is never greater than 250 J/kg. So we`ll stay in a sort of wait and see mode with the knowledge that the end of the week will become unsettled however the timing of when showers start is a bit of an unknown. I choose to trend slight towards the faster EC but tapered off the spatial coverage leaving mention of a chance of showers increasing to likely by Friday morning. Given the diverging solutions of the the longer ranged guidance its a bit tough to believe either solution for the weekend as the EC keeps the North Country under high pressure and quiet, while the GFS stalls out the low pressure system and keeps rain over the North Country pretty much through the weekend. Given the spread I opted for a persistence forecast from the previous forecaster and carried mention of a chance of showers but confidence isn`t real high there.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 18Z Monday...Aviation challenge tonight into Monday morning will be areal coverage of fog/br and potential impacts at slk/mpv. VFR conditions prevail thru 04z at all sites with scattered fair wx cumulus clouds around 5000 feet and northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Tonight...1020mb high pres builds directly overhead...producing light winds/clear skies and ideal cooling conditions. Latest guidance shows slk dropping 4 to 6 degrees below cross over values and mpv 2 to 4 degrees...so thinking both taf sites will expect fog with lifr conditions. Have tempo between 07-11z at mpv with prevailing 1/4sm fg ovc 100 feet at slk starting around 06z. Fog/br should lift by 12z...as light southerly flow develops. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Taber

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