Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 170244 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 944 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST EAST OF MAINE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IS PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. COULD ALSO BE SOME SLEET MIXED IN. SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO GET ORGANIZED NOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 PM TUESDAY... INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA AFTER INITIAL BAND AS WELL. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO VERMONT. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY REMAINING WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD IN VERMONT. THUS WHILE MOSTLY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR A LOT OF LOCATIONS...SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT (ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDEST HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM). THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SLEET AS WELL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER ANY GLAZE OF ICE CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...SO WILL COVER WITH AN SPS. BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT)...AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 935 PM EST TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD. MORNING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY NOON OR SO. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BREAK OUT UNDER UPPER LOW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ON MORE OF AN OROGRAPHIC NATURE. WITH BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING INDICATED BY FROUDE NUMBERS BELOW 1...COULD BE LOOKING AT AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 404 PM EST TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WAVE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE A LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FROM THE CLOUDS. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT KPBG...KBTV...AND KRUT WHILE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WFO ALY NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...WFO ALY/MUCCILLI LONG TERM...WFO ALY AVIATION...EVENSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.