Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260459 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1259 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet but warmer weather is expected through the end of the week. There will be a few chances for some light rain showers, but no significant weather is expected at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1259 AM EDT Tuesday...Isolated showers continue to move across the northern half of Vermont and should continue for a couple more hours before moving out of the area. Tweaked the grids to account for this. Otherwise...higher dew points and some cloud cover not allowing temperatures to fall that much so raised overnight lows up a couple of degrees. Rest of forecast on track and no other changes needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM EDT Monday...Quieter weather returns for Tuesday through Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure builds to our southwest. Temperatures will be above seasonal normals though with mid 80s expected on Tuesday and near 90 on Wednesday with 850 temps in the teens each day. Some afternoon cu over the mountains is expected on Tuesday, possibly a sprinkle or light shower in the higher terrain as a weak shortwave passes along the international border. Quiet weather and clearing skies will return Tuesday night, better chance for patchy fog with better radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the 60s Tuesday night. Wednesday will be the warmer of the two days in the short term with highs edging up around 90. Westerly flow aloft continues allowing aforementioned surface ridge to continue to advect into our region. A weak surface cold front will approach from Canada Wednesday night and will have a chance of showers along with this feature, though not abundant moisture. Wednesday night will be warm and humid with minimum temperatures only dropping into the mid 60s once again. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 336 PM EDT Monday...Surface ridge building in from south central Canada with light north-northwest flow will coincide with 500mb troughing providing a low chance for showers on Thursday. Continued ridging at the surface and slight ridging aloft will keep Friday dry before low pressure system develops to the south/west and brings a chance for precipitation late Friday. Model guidance diverges on evolution of this system associated with two areas of vorticity embedded in the 500mb flow. 12Z ECMWF develops these features into a double barrel surface low pressure system late in the week into the weekend. While 12Z GFS keeps mid level vorts along more southerly route and surface high pressure over southwestern Quebec and the northern New England. High uncertainty in the pattern beyond early Friday. Both models show mid level troughing across the Northeast late Saturday with the GFS much broader than the ECMWF. With these differences noted, have stuck with Superblend with chances for precipitation through Monday. Temperatures generally expected to be near normal, but highly dependent on variability of cloud cover and precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 00z Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible near KMSS with southern end of band of showers and thunderstorms moving across southeast Ontario clipping KMSS area. Started out TAF there with VCSH and mvfr cigs, becoming VFR. Also added IFR vis in fog 06-12z at KMPV and KSLK as expect clearing skies and light wind to allow radiation fog to develop. Any fog to clear around 12z with VFR for the duration of the TAF period. Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday... 00z Wed - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR under high pressure. Isolated showers possible Wed/Thu afternoons. 00z Fri - Sat: Increasing chances for widespread MVFR showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Hanson

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