Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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012 FXUS61 KBTV 152042 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 342 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A mild air mass will remain in place across the North Country through tonight, with south to southwest winds as an area of low pressure passes well to the north across Quebec. Will see abundant low clouds, and redeveloping fog in spots during the overnight hours. A weak mid-level disturbance passing to our south will bring a few light rain showers tonight, mainly across south-central Vermont. Once this mid-level disturbance passes, winds will shift into the northwest with a chance of snow showers across the northern mountains on Friday morning. High pressure will bring tranquil weather conditions Friday night and Saturday. Another area of low pressure passing south of New England will bring light snow to portions of the North Country for Saturday night, with light accumulations most likely across central and south-central Vermont. A significant warm up is expected Monday and Tuesday next week as an upper level ridge builds across the western Atlantic. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 306 PM EST Thursday...A 996mb sfc low tracking well to our north across Quebec has our region in the warm sector this afternoon with variably cloudy conditions. Temperatures west of the Green Mtns have generally reached the upr 40s to lower 50s, and localized downsloping off the Adirondacks with SW winds has allowed PBG to jump from 44 to 56F as of 3pm. A bit cooler east of the Greens with lighter winds...and temps in the low- mid 40s. Strong 100-110kt upper level jet extending from the mid- Mississippi river valley enewd across the Ohio Valley will strengthen as it shifts to our south overnight. Weak sfc reflection will translate rapidly from central PA across srn New England between 03-09Z. Associated ascent in left exit region of the jet will primarily remain to our south. However, may see some light precipitation, reaching into s-central VT with this feature. Temperature profiles support mainly rain with anything that falls (generally less than 0.10" expected). Also, with 2-m dewpoints in the lower 40s, will see some fog redevelop over the snowpack tonight, especially as winds decrease below 10 mph and as mixing decreases across the region. Added in patchy fog across the North Country. Will see a SW-NW wind shift between 08-12Z as sfc low shifts ewd into the Gulf of Maine toward daybreak. With abundant low-level moisture in place, may see a few orographic snow showers during the morning hours Friday, with gradual clearing later in the day. Any accumulation will be light (dusting to 0.5"). Temperatures tonight will remain on the mild side...mainly in the 30s, except upr 20s across nrn NY with low-level CAA late. During the day Friday, will see steady or slowly falling temperatures with NW winds 10-20 mph and continued low-level CAA. Temps generally in the low-mid 30s across the valleys of VT, and in the mid-upr 20s across nrn NY. High pressure builds into the Northeast CONUS Friday night with light winds. Should see good radiational cooling conditions. Lows mainly in the single digits above zero, except for a few below zero readings in the Adirondacks and far nern VT...and a few low teens in the immediate Champlain Valley. PoPs NIL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 337 PM EST Thursday...With high pressure centered over the MidAtlantic Coast, Saturday will be a nice start to the weekend. Look for mostly to partly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures with highs generally in the upper 20s. By Saturday evening, the high pressure will have moved offshore and southwesterly flow will increase ahead of a shortwave lifting out of the Ohio River Valley. This will bring increasing cloudcover over the North Country through the late afternoon into the evening. Early Saturday night, a low pressure system originating in the Mississippi River Valley will have crossed the Appalachian Mountains and moved offshore off the MidAtlantic Coast. This system will spread a quick shot of snow over the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday morning. The fairly zonal, progressive pattern will quickly carry the low out to sea by Sunday afternoon. This track of the low quickly pulling away from the coast to our southeast doesn`t favor significant snow accumulations for the North Country, however southern and eastern Vermont could see up to 2 inches. Elsewhere, northern New York, the Champlain Valley, and northern Vermont can expect under an inch of snow Saturday night. Sunday will be drier with some snow showers possible in higher elevations of the northern Adirondacks and the northern Greens. Southwesterly flow will increase throughout the day, allowing temperatures to top out in the upper 30s to low 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 337 PM EST Thursday...The longterm forecast will feature a longwave pattern change for North America that will result in warmer and wetter weather over the forecast area than we`ve seen the last few weeks. Through the first half of February, a persistent west coast ridge has dominated the overall flow with a broad trough over the eastern United States. This pattern has kept us generally in the cold sector of most cyclones that move through. Early next week however, models continue to indicate that the West Coast Ridge will break down and troughing will setup over the western portion of the country. Meanwhile further east, anomalously strong ridging will build over the western Atlantic. Anticyclonic return flow around the building Bermuda High will usher in fairly persistent warm, moist Gulf air to much of the eastern US for the first half of the week, resulting in some of the warmest temperatures of the year for much of the area. Details... Sunday night will continue to trend drier as high pressure to our south moves eastward into the western Atlantic. By Monday, the longwave pattern will amplify as a shortwave trough digs into the western US and ridging builds over the western Atlantic. This will redirect deep southwesterly flow into New England, prompting a noticeable warmup in the sensible weather. Temperatures will climb to the low to mid 40s Monday and into the 50s Tuesday. Multiple waves will tap into the influx of Gulf Moisture as they track northeastward along a stalled frontal boundary through the southern US to the Northeast. This setup will lead to a long duration precipitation event over the North Country lasting from Monday night through Wednesday afternoon. Still too early to get into too many details with the precipitation, but it does look like a decent amount of rain could fall during this timeframe. With the strong southwesterly flow directed towards our area, expect to see the typical precipitation shadowing in valley locations with the heavier precipitation in areas with favorable upslope flow. The return of the warmer temperatures and some rain will bring renewed hydro concerns for the early to mid portion of next week that we will continue to monitor closely. Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will move through and temperatures should fall throughout the night as a surface high builds in. The remainder of the week will be drier with temperatures near seasonal norms as the western Atlantic Ridge breaks down and more zonal flow resumes.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...Mainly looking at VFR/MVFR ceilings through 00Z this evening, with 1.5-2.5kft ceilings generally at MSS/SLK/RUT/MPV, and VFR ceilings locally in the Champlain Valley. HIR TRRN OBSCD. Winds generally S-SW at 10-15kts, but gusts locally up to 25kts at MSS/BTV with valley channeled flow conditions. With 50kt low-level jet at 850mb, will likely see some moderate turbulence vcnty mtns until 02-03Z this evening when those winds subside. With lighter winds at the sfc tonight, will also see some patchy fog/BR development, and generally indicated 2-4SM BR thru the overnight period, and locally down to 1/2SM at SLK. Mid-level wave passing south of the area will bring a chance of a few rain showers this evening/overnight across s-central VT with KRUT the most likely TAF location to see some light rain. A NWLY wind shift 07-11Z will bring a better chance for orographic snow showers, and included VCSH at the moment for BTV/PBG/MPV/MSS/SLK for the morning hours on Friday. Any snow accumulation Friday morning is expected to be light, with a dusting to 0.5" possible. Outlook... Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Washingtons Birthday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...RSD LONG TERM...RSD AVIATION...Banacos

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