Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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549 FXUS61 KBTV 240002 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 802 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Clear skies will give way to increasing clouds and the threat of light snows by tomorrow morning as a warm front pushes into the area. Mixed precipitation or rain will be likely on and off into the coming weekend as this front waffles south and north across the region. Temperatures will moderate back toward more seasonal late March values through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 802 PM EDT Thursday...Mostly clear skies with light winds will see high clouds spreading from the west throughout tonight.Temperatures will bottom out early given the clear skies (5 to 15 above in the mountains/teens to lower 20s valleys) but will trend steady or slowly rise overnight as clouds arrive and light southerly return flow develops. An approaching warm frontal system will be approaching from the south and west tonight and the leading edge of its precipitation shield will begin to encroach into our far western counties toward sunrise Friday in the form of light snows. A messy day then on tap for Friday as the warm front marches into the region under strengthening southerly flow and widespread mixed precipitation. Some channeling effects likely in the Champlain Valley where gusts to near 30 mph look plausible at this point. Boundary layer to mid level thermal profiles will be critical in determining eventual p-type as widespread light snows slowly transition to a mix of snow/sleet and eventual rain from the Champlain Valley west. P-type should hold more in the form of snow and/or a mix of snow/sleet across much of east central and northeastern VT where mid level warming will be less and colder near surface layers will be harder to scour out. Mixed precipitation top down methodology using a variety of model output continues to support the idea of little in the way of freezing rain with this feature, which appears reasonable seeing the primary mid-level warm layer generally runs in the 0-3C range through 21Z. Experience would suggest however at least some patchy -fzra may occur here and there through the morning hours. Front end snow totals should generally run in the 0.5 to 2 inch range, with slightly higher totals from 1.5 to 4 inches likely across east central and northeastern VT. Given the front end light snows will inhibit any pavement icing and only low probabilities of a few hundredths of ice accumulation are suggested (if any) will hold off on issuing any advisories at this point. Late day high temperatures should range from the lower to mid 30s east and north, and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. By Friday night widespread light rains (or mixed precipitation north and east) will gradually wane over time as best warm thermal advection lessens. Later at night models continue to suggest building high pressure to our north will push the front back southward into the area with flow transitioning to a light northerly regime by daybreak Saturday. This will tend to shunt the precipitation shield southward as well as coverage/intensity lessens. Some lingering light rains/mixed precipitation/light snows will remain possible though settle generally into our southern counties by morning. Lows a bit tricky though with expected abundance of clouds upper 20s to lower 30s looks reasonable for most spots. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 PM EDT Thursday....For Saturday and Saturday night frontal boundary will remain draped across our forecast area. This means that threat for mixed precipitation will continue through the short term period. Large area of high pressure will push South out of Canada on Saturday and push frontal boundary south of our region. Precipitation will also push south of the area and we will be in the cold sector on the North side of the front. During the second half of Saturday night frontal boundary lifts back up over the area and will be situated across Northern New York and Vermont. Despite odd frontal boundary drifting South of the area then back across our area the temperatures Saturday and Saturday night will be very near to seasonal normals. We will have a little bit of rain across our Southern zones on Saturday, then some mixed precipitation as the boundary lifts back northward Saturday night with some snow, sleet, and freezing rain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 346 PM EDT Thursday...Aforementioned frontal boundary remains over Northern New York from Sunday through Monday. More mixed precipitation is expected as thermal boundary is stacked up right over us. Upper level low pressure system and strong upper level shortwave cross the region later Sunday into Sunday night, and still pushing Eastward across our CWA on Monday. Precipitation will finally end Monday night. But, will only be a short break in the action with another low pressure system approaching for Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately with freezing lines staying very close to our forecast area, we will mostly have rain with these systems but need to also continue to monitor potential for trouble with mixed precipitation as well, freezing rain and sleet. Tough to find a dry period over the next week with very active weather and borderline temperatures causing lots of forecasting challenges. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail through 12Z before an approaching warm front brings snow to the North Country. After 12Z Friday, snow will spread eastward reaching KMSS/KSLK around 12z...the Champlain Valley around 14Z and KMPV shortly after. Snow will likely bring IFR/MVFR conditions before transitioning to a snow/sleet/rain mix around 15-17Z over Northern NY, 16Z-18Z in the Champlain Valley and at KMPV. Expect warming trend to continue with wintry mix changing to rain during the afternoon. Winds trending southerly 5 to 15 knots, most pronounced at KBTV/KPBG where valley channeling effects may push gusts near 25 kts. Outlook 00Z Saturday through Tuesday... 00Z Saturday through 18Z Saturday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected to improve as precipitation settles southward and lessening in coverage by Saturday afternoon affecting mainly southern terminals at that point. Highest threat of mix to occur at northern terminals. 18Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday...trending mainly VFR /precipitation-free as Canadian high pressure noses briefly southward into the area. 12Z Sunday through 12Z Tuesday...widespread mixed precipitation and/or rain return to the region. 12Z Tuesday onward...light and spotty mixed precipitation transitions toward a period of steadier rains by Wednesday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/KGM SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...KGM

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