Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211952 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 352 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDIER THAN YESTERDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED ZONE FORECAST SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT CLD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS. EXPECTING A FINAL SURGE OF CLDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTNOON. LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AREA SLOWLY MVG THRU THE ST LAW VALLEY/WESTERN DACKS...W/ SCT CLDS ELSEWHERE. SOME CLRING BEHIND THIS BUT AFTNOON HRS PROGRESSING WITH LESS TIME TO JUMP TO REACH THE 70F MARK. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS IN N NY TO BRING IT CLOSE...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CVLY. REST OF CWA M/U60S WITH SOME SPOT 70F POSSIBLE...BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BKN/OVC DECK MVG EAST IN N NY ATTM. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO WINDS...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...10-20 MPH ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY FOR TUESDAY...JUST FIGURING OUT WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS A VERY SLOW MOVER. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AT 12Z...AT THE NY VT BORDER BY 18Z...AND THEN EAST OF VT AT 00Z. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND -6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY. EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRNT ACRS OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT BTV/PBG FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 01-04 FOR -RA AT MSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU 18Z TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS THIS AFTN...WL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN BY THIS EVENING. SFC COLD FRNT APPROACHES MSS BY 15Z TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BTWN 18Z TUES AND 03Z WEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE OF PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WL DEVELOP BY 03Z WEDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...JN SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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