Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 132004 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 304 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will build across the region tonight into Wednesday with mainly dry weather and variable cloud cover. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday with light rain and snow showers and minor accumulations across the higher terrain. A more significant storm system arrives by the upcoming weekend with breezy conditions and more widespread rain and snow shower activity.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 304 PM EST Monday...Quiet weather is expected over the next 36 hours as weak surface high pressure builds slowly into the area. The high will remain bridged by weak cyclonic flow aloft however, which will allow variable cloud cover to continue through much of the period. Any lingering light rains/snows will end by early this evening in most spots as today`s weak shortwave trough exits east, leaving mainly cloudy skies for body of the night. With the no airmass change and anticipated clouds low temperatures will be quite uniform - mainly in the 20s. Then more of the same for Tuesday with cloudy skies gradually thinning over time by Tuesday night. Winds to remain light with no precipitation expected outside a stray mountain flurry. Have stayed close to persistence in regard to temperatures offering highs in the 30s to around 40 with lows Tuesday night once again in the 20s - quite normal, "Novemberish-like" weather indeed.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM EST Monday...A ridge of high pressure will stretch along the east coast Tuesday night into Wed morning as a short wave ridge moves by bringing fair seasonably weather. Low temperature Wed morning will be 20s rising to highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wed afternoon. A short wave trof will quickly follow by Wed eve with warm evening with warm advection, increasing clouds, and a chance of light overrunning precipitation Wednesday night. Some uncertainty in when the precipitation arrives and the resultant precipitation type, but it looks like it will move rapidly from west to east after 00z. Temperatures will be steady or rising Wed night so it could start as a light mix especially in the higher terrain and east of the Green mountains before becoming mainly rain showers by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 415 AM EST Monday...A rather changeable weather pattern is expected in the long term period with growing model differences by the weekend leading to less certainty in the forecast. All in all it looks like typical November weather with lots of clouds, rain and/or snow showers, and fairly average temperatures with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A cold front will move through the area Thursday with a chance of rain showers changing to snow showers mainly in the higher terrain later in the day with a NW upslope flow expected. Another ridge of high pressure is is expected on Friday with a brief dry period for Fri. Another more vigorous system will approach Fri night or Saturday a rather strong low pressure system moving up through the Great Lakes well north and west of region. At this time looks like Sat will be the wettest of the week with warm front and warm air advection followed by a cold front Saturday or Sat night and cold advection on Sunday. Precip type could be interesting depending upon when it starts, but right now if it starts Friday night could start as a mix with mainly rain showers on Sat before changing to snow showers behind the cold front Sunday with some Lake Ontario snow showers. Saturday could be pretty windy with some strong gusty winds possible ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the forecast period. Scattered light snows/flurries and occasional MVFR/IFR will end by 22Z leaving mainly BKN/OVC skies from 035-060 AGL across the region through 18Z Tuesday. Exception will be at KSLK where MVFR cigs likely to persist through much of the period. Winds should remain variable and generally 5 knots or less at all terminals. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...JMG

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