Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 150858 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 458 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...A COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAS HELPED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SARANAC LAKE NOW AT 37 DEGREES. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS THE FROST ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO COVER FOR THIS. HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY. AREAS OF CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAVE HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY UP THROUGH 8 AM EDT IN THESE AREAS. WILL LIKELY DROP THE FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AFTER SUNRISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 458 AM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS PAST NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY FOR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY...SO EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED. BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV/SLK WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT PBG/BTV...BUT BKN-OVC040-060 AT MSS/RUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AT MPV/SLK BY AROUND 13Z. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND AN INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY FROM 5-8 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-012-016. NY...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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