Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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960 FXUS61 KBTV 191053 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 653 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 653 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MID-MORNING AND HAVE TWEAKED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE COME STRONG FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 300 PM AND 700 PM AND AGAIN...WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. HAVE TWEAKED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO INDICATE A SHARPER GRADIENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COME TO AN END BY 800 PM WITH JUST SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO RETURN ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH GENERAL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST, MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH OF THE BORDER CARVING OUT THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THOUGH SO BETTING WE SEE JUST A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ONLY REAL WEATHER CONCERN BEING OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RUN IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND DEVELOPING AREA IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR EXPECTED AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV WITH MVFR AT KSLK/KRUT/KMPV. AFTER 12Z, CONDITIONS TREND DRIER AND BACK TO VFR FOR THE MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 15Z ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND AFTER 18Z AT VERMONT SITES. ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 20Z TUE THRU 00Z WED. OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT KBTV OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT. WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING TO 25 KTS WEST OF KBTV. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. 00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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