Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230224 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1024 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region tonight and Thursday will result in drier conditions, lighter winds, and clearing skies. A warm front will arrive on Friday with increasing clouds, gusty winds, and mixed wintry precipitation across the North Country. Temperatures will moderate through the weekend...becoming near normal for the end of March. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1023 PM EDT Wednesday...Few more tweaks to temp trends to match current obs, otherwise a clear, quiet and cold night is expected across the North Country with lows mainly in the single digits. Previous Discussion...High pressure dominates the near term with today`s gusty winds subsiding overnight as the high shifts eastward from the central Great Lakes Region. With clear skies and lighter winds, expect Thursday morning lows of 0 to 10 degrees for most areas and single digits below zero in the higher terrain. Some modest recovery on temps Thursday aided by relatively high late March sun angle, with highs upr 20s to lower 30s and lighter NW winds 5-10 mph. As the ridge of high pressure at the surface shifts eastward off the Atlantic coast Thursday night, warming SW flow will being to filter into the region limiting the nocturnal cooling. Increasing clouds ahead of approaching warm front will also result in warmer overnight/morning lows. Expect precipitation associated with the front to hold off til after 12Z Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday....Models maintain overall consistency showing widespread warm advection-driven precipitation arriving on Friday as deeper moisture and southerly flow return. Some enhanced wind channeling will be likely in the Champlain Valley where gusts to 30 mph look plausible at this point. As is typical during early spring scenarios, boundary layer thermal profiles will be crucial in determining p-type. Primary idea will be for a mix to rain from the Champlain Valley west, and a longer more persistent period of mix/snow across eastern VT where cooler more stable air will be tougher to mix out. A few inches of accumulation will be possible, especially in elevated terrain and eastern VT. High temperatures generally from the upper 30s to lower 40s from the Champlain Valley west and mid to upper 30s across eastern VT. By Friday night solutions continue to suggest central Canada high pressure will build east and south with primary band of precipitation being shunted slowly southward over time as coverage lessens. Northern counties may in fact trend dry toward daybreak on Saturday. Boundary layer profiles cool slightly during the drying process such that p-type will likely transition to more light snow with perhaps some lingering mix with rain in warmer valley locales. Again, some light additional snow accumulations will be possible, especially central/south. Low temperatures mainly from the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...Best day of the 7-day forecast period appears to be on Saturday as aforementioned Canadian high pressure noses briefly southward into the area. Skies should trend partly sunny north and variably cloudy south under light northerly flow. Some lingering light mixed precipitation may be possible during the first half of the day south but shouldn`t be a big deal. Temperatures generally 35 to 40 north and 40 to 45 south. The forecast then becomes increasingly complex from Sunday onward into early next week as waves of modest advection of warmth and moisture ripple through the area with continued chances of precipitation. Boundary layer thermal profiles will again be critical in determining eventual p-type through the period, with subtle differences of just a few degrees potentially having a large impact. Other factors such as time of day and precipitation intensity/wet bulb cooling processes will likely play a role as well. For now will maintain highest threat of precipitation during the Sunday/Monday time frame, and potentially again toward the middle of next week. Temperatures should exhibit a narrower than normal diurnal range given the expected abundance of clouds with highs from 35 to 45 and overnight lows 25 to 35. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...VFR with 1038mb high pres will prevail at all taf sites tonight into Thursday. Brisk northwest winds 10 to 15 with gusts to 20 knots will decrease overnight to 5 to 10 knots...before slowly shifting back to the south/southwest on Thursday with increasing mid/upper level clouds. 00Z Friday through Monday... Active period of weather returns with increasing clouds and chances for wintry precipitation...especially between Friday from 15z to 00z Sunday. Expecting a period of snow showers with widespread ifr conditions Friday...followed by occasional rain/snow showers with mvfr in the valleys and ifr at mpv/slk. Weak high pres and vfr returns for Sunday into Monday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...Lahiff/KGM SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Taber

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