Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 090603 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 103 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO. MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. 00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...WGH/RJS

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