Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252051 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 351 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. LOW CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1212 PM EST SUNDAY...NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION. SO THE FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE THE NON DIURNAL TREND AS OUR HIGHS WERE SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW REGIONAL TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AND EXPECT BY SUNSET THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA THEY WILL BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. GUSTY MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM EST SUNDAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL ALSO BE COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THEN ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THOUGH SLOWLY...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LOT OF DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ASPECT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. GFS...NAM...ECMWF...AND SREF ALL HAVE LOW PASSING VERY NEAR TO THE BENCHMARK...BUT NAM KEEPS PRECIP SHIELD CLOSER TO THE BOMBING LOW CENTER. ECMWF BRINGS US THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...BUT FEEL THAT THE AMOUNTS ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE THAT MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. SNOW WILL BE ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES RIGHT AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...AND SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THINK THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS VERMONT...STILL HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE A BIT INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND THEN BECOME MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SCENARIO. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. FEEL THAT RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL TOTALS AND HAVE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE THREE MOST SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR WARNING AREA. MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT SHOW STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...IT`S MORE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WE ALSO LOOKED AT SEVERAL STORM ANALOGS THAT KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SIMILAR HISTORIC STORMS. DRY ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL BE SINKING OVER OUR FORECAST ARE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MAY ALSO BE TOUGH TO GET OUT OF HERE TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE MOIST AIR TO REACH OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ASSESS POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING TO A WARNING AND ADVISORY ACROSS AT LEAST OUR VERMONT ZONES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...THE WINTER STORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MODEL IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND HAS LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE ENTIRE DAY ON FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS SNOW LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AT 06Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS LOW OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AT 06Z SATURDAY. THUS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THUS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD... AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW FROM DEVELOPING STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR EXPECTED IN LIGHT SNOW. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ004-007>009-018. NY...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH EQUIPMENT...WGH

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