Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191722 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 122 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR. 500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK. LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER. AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME. 00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...JMG

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