Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041127 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 727 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY DAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 727 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE MAIN CHANGE TO ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIP BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SPOTTY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE STILL TARGETING NORTHERN NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LATEST WATER VAPOR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS THE DIGGING/DEEPENING TROUGH WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY, TAPPING INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALSO OF NOTE ON CURRENT UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND RADAR IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER NOCTURNAL CONVECTION/LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA. SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY COULD MAKE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LEAD AND MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE ON INTO TONIGHT, WHILE WE`LL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, FORCING WILL BE THE MISSING INGREDIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND SHIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENN`S/KENTUCKY BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. I`LL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, IT`LL BE ANOTHER TRICKY MAXT FORECAST FOR TODAY, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES AT BOTH 10M AND 500M SHOW OUR SOURCE AIR COMES FROM COASTAL NH/ME WHERE TEMPS YESTERDAY WERE MUCH LIKE HERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. SURFACE FLOW DOES TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SO I THINK WE`LL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND I DON`T THINK WE`LL GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOW 50S EAST, TO UPPER 50S WEST. LIGHT FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TONIGHT`S TEMPS MILD AS WELL, THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BEST DYNAMIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE TEMPERED JUST A BIT. SHOULD SEE HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO BRING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING AT A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE AND LIKE THE IDEA IN THE FORECAST OF MENTIONING SHOWERS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IS REPLACED WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAIN IMPACTS BEING MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STRUGGLING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FORECAST FOR LOW CEILINGS. HAVE OFFERED MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR AREA-WIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING GENERALLY TREND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5-10KTS, EXCEPT AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRI. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. 00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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