Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181127 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 727 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST- FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS. LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F 1979 RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F 1990 MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F 1959 ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F 1943 MASSENA (MSS)..........30F 2008 BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F 1959 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-016>018. FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009- 011-012-019. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027- 029>031-034-087. FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF CLIMATE...NASH

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