Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260747 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 347 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PERSISTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST OVER THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROVIDING LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 347 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS LARGE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MODELS SHOW A LACK OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK, NEARER LIFT OF TROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 347 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT PERSISTENT LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST THEN WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING SW, ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT REBOUND ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SKIES BECOME CLEARER THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE FAIRLY ROBUST RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EURO IS STRONGER WITH THE PATTERN, WHICH APPEARS TO BUILD A BLOCKING RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS ISN`T AS AGGRESSIVE, AND AS A RESULT OUR AREA IS A LITTLE MORE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVES ZIPPING BY IN THE FAST FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD OF TIME, WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE EXTREME WARMTH -- AS EVEN THE EURO WHICH IS THE WARMER MODEL HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING 16-17C MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. GIVEN A BLEND WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS AND IT`S 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-16C, MAINTAINING THE CONCEPT OF LOW-MID 80S FOR HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK SEEMS TO MAKE THE MOST SENSE. AS I MENTIONED, IT DOES LOOK FAIRLY DRY, THOUGH WITH A SHORTWAVE ZIPPING BY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORM TO FIRE OFF. THIS FAR OUT, TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT IF THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING, THEN THE CHANCES ARE BETTER. THAT SAID, LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES FROM THE GFS (WHICH KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE STRONGEST), I DON`T SEE A LOT OF MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY. IN FACT, THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT TIED IN WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ALL SAID, I HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY 15-25% POPS FOR THE WEEKEND -- WELL BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH WAS CLOSER TO 50%. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY....MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS IN TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. A BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ON THURSDAY. LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHTS AT SLK AND MPV IS ALSO LIKELY. 00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI

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