Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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087 FXUS61 KBTV 180854 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 454 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move northeast across the area this morning and exit the region around midday. During the afternoon hours some areas will see sunshine...especially over northern New York. By late in the day the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms will exist from the northern Adirondacks of New York eastward across the Champlain Valley and remainder of Vermont. Any showers and storms come to an end tonight. On Saturday there will be the chance for showers in the afternoon...but the areal coverage will be scattered in nature. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Drier air begins to move into the region on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 454 AM EDT Friday...Low level warm air advection is enhancing showers across northern New York this morning and Showalter Index values are slightly negative for indications of elevated instability. We have seen some lightning with this activity and given the continued existence of elevated instability through about 800 am this morning...will continue to mention isolated thunderstorms over northern New York. The showers will move across Vermont this morning with noticeable clearing/drying moving into northern New York during the morning hours. There will likely be a lull in precipitation around midday with dry weather expected through about 500 pm before instability develops from the Champlain Valley westward in advance of an approaching cold front. Deep layer shear will also be increasing over the Saint Lawrence Valley but at the same time dry air aloft will move into that area. So feel that area remains dry late in the day...but from the northern Adirondacks into the Champlain Valley can see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing. Not the most favorable instability and shear in this area...but enough for the convective threat. Dew points will be well into the 60s at that point and can see heavy downpours with any of the convection. At this time will not put in any enhanced wording...but will need to keep an eye on the wind gust potential. Feel best threat for strong to severe storms will remain south of our area...from the Albany area down into eastern Pennsylvania/northern New Jersey where deep layer shear and instability are aligned with each other and are sufficiently strong. High temperatures today will be interesting with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the east to the lower 80s in the west. For tonight scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should end by midnight as cold front moves east of the region. Lows will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s and would not be shocked to see fog develop with higher dew points and additional low level moisture from Friday`s precipitation. On Saturday main upper trough is still to the west of our area and will be approaching by late in the day. Can see the chance for some afternoon showers as this feature approaches and enhances dynamic support over the region. West to southwest flow aloft will allow for slightly above normal temperatures with highs in mid 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 454 AM EDT Friday...Chance for showers Saturday night as upper level trough and short wave energy passes overhead. Dry weather returns for Sunday with surface high pressure ridge building into the north country. Temperatures Saturday night will be slightly warmer than normal with clouds and chance for precipitation, then back to near normal values on Sunday with dry and seasonable weather expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 454 AM EDT Friday...Our weather will be dry from Sunday night through early Tuesday with surface high pressure remaining the main synoptic feature. On Tuesday a weak low will pass north of our area and we will have a chance for some showers from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday. Upper level trough will linger a bit behind this system, and bring a chance for showers through the end of the period. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest of the week ahead of approaching cold front, max temps reach the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than normal towards the end of the week with upper level trough bringing clouds and precipitation to our area. Highest pops will be Tuesday night and early Wednesday with the actual frontal passage.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Low level wind shear will exist across northern New York through about 12z with light and variable surface winds and increasing south to southwest winds around 2000 feet. This is associated with a warm front moving into the region which is also enhancing precipitation as well as isolated thunderstorms. Conditions will trend MVFR through the morning hours over northern New York. Eventually the showers will move into Vermont between 12z and 18z and a trend toward MVFR conditions will also exist. Some drying takes place with precipitation moving east of the area after 18z...but ceilings will remain in the VFR/MVFR ranges while visibilities stay in the VFR category. Scattered showers will develop between 21z and 03z. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson

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