Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211230 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 830 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers are forecast today as the low pressure system that has brought unsettled weather to the area departs the region. Dry weather is forecast tonight through Thursday under high pressure, then rain chances increase again on Friday. Temperatures will be near their seasonal normals, with highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 830 AM EDT Wednesday...Quick update to increase pops across north central VT over the next few hours to account for band of showers traversing this area. Activity is being driven by front-end PVA along the primary trough axis as shortwave aloft passes to our immediate north this morning. Rest of forecast remains in good shape. Prior discussion... We`re on the downhill stretch of moving the persistent trough out of the area. Trough axis is shifting east, and showers associated with the vort max moved through the forecast area in the pre- dawn hours. Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with most organized precip with the vort max, then continued isolated to scattered showers today in instability under cool pool aloft with trough axis passage. Wind turns westerly today at 10-15 mph with passage of trough. Limited sunshine and cooler air under the trough will keep temps in the upper 60s mountains to mid 70s Champlain valley. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 412 AM EDT Wednesday...500 mb heights begin to rise tonight with trough shifting to the east. Surface ridge axis starts out to the west tonight, and shifts slowly east to become centered over the region by Thursday morning. Light westerly flow near the surface and northwest flow at 850 mb on up. Lower layer RH will provide for partial clearing. Lows tonight in the 50s. Thursday to be a winner for outdoor activities with dry humidity, plenty of sun, and max temps in the 70s to near 80. Surface ridge slowly pulls east with low level flow returning to light southerly warm air advection, while 500 mb shortwave ridge moves west to east. Continued low RH and subsidence with the ridge will keep skies mostly clear. With the sunshine we should realize the potential max temps based on 925 & 850 mb temps, which support highs in the 70s to near 80 in the Champlain Valley. More precip forecast Thursday night and Friday. Leading shortwave trough ahead of an approaching 500 mb trough crashes through the ridge late Thursday night, and pops increase to chance category west to east to cover entire area for Friday. Main low moves well northeast into Quebec as steering flow turns more southwesterly ahead of the deepening low over the Great lakes. Trailing cold front will provide focus for convection Friday. Remnants of TS Cindy will remain to the south and exit the mid-Atlantic coast, however southwest flow in the mid levels will advect plenty of subtropical moisture ahead of the surface front. Potential for big rainfall rates again on Friday similar to Mondays storms. Model soundings showing precipitable water again climbing to near 2", which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Saturated sounding and warm cloud depth over 10K feet signal very efficient warm rainfall processes. The main difference between last Monday and upcoming Friday is the surface boundary is forecast to keep moving along so don`t expect storms linger or train over any one area. Will still see heavy rain rates as they pass and have added heavy rain to Friday`s storm characteristics. Despite clouds & rain Friday will be warmer than Thursday in warm southerly flow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 438 AM EDT Wednesday...Frontal boundary continues to linger on into the extended period through early Saturday as upper level support in the form of mid- level vorticity lags behind. Widespread activity should be done in the morning but some isolated showery activity is still possible in the afternoon. The front clears the region by Sunday as a weak short ridge slightly disrupts the broad upper trof over the northeast giving a short reprieve before the next system moves in to start next week. Models at this point differ on the evolution of the next low forming over the Great Lakes and the progression of it through the end of the period, so for now have opted stick with the consensus of slight to chance PoPs for the early half of next week. Expect highs in the upper 60s to 70s during the period and lows in the 40s to 50s. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions overall for most of the period. Exception being some lingering MVFR ceilings at KMSS/KSLK which will improve back to VFR by 16Z. After that, skies will continue to improve to scatted mid-level clouds by 00Z. Most terminals will see winds between 5-10 knots out of the SW with gusts up to 15-20 knots before winds shift to the WNW by the evening. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA...Likely TSRA. Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...JMG/Hanson SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...MV

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