Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271431 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1031 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE`LL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH MANY SPOTS CLIMBING ABOVE 60 DEGREES. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1023 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. WHILE SOME CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND IN EASTERN CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES OF NY DUE DOWNSLOPING FROM ADIRONDACKS...PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA. WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO MID AFTERNOON...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS LATER IN DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AREA WIDE AS FORECAST INDICATES. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EARLIER DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WHICH IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. STILL SEEING A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS...BUT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE SUNSET. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DEEP SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOW TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER TUESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 925-850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-15C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WESTWARD IN THE MID 60S WHILE EAST OF THE GREENS TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A COUPLE OF 70 READINGS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EITHER WHERE 925-850MB WINDS STRENGTHEN THE MOST ON CHANNELED SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS WE`VE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING TO EAST OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...AS BEST DYNAMICS TRACK UP TO WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH VERMONT. PRECIP WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN DACKS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...PUSH INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NY...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND WESTWARD WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS..BUT SHOULDN`T REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 444 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINLY A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW AT 500 MB LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. EXPECTING ANY RAIN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY COULD SEE THE SEASONS FIRST SNOWFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. GFS MODEL A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER. THE ECMWF MODEL IS SUGGESTING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PRODUCING SNOW OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS AREA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AT 12Z MONDAY. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT BY 18Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION BY 23Z MONDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUESDAY-18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...BANACOS/WGH

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