Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251900 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 300 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry, there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains on track as we progress toward the late afternoon/early evening hours. The tail end of a weak surface trough/front is in the process of dropping south into our northern counties as of 300 pm with a modest wind shift to the west/northwest behind the boundary across neighboring southern QE/ON. The front will cross the region this evening with little fanfare, though weak instability, combined with increasing 0-6km shear and some PVA from a shortwave passing off to our northeast may be just enough to spark a few showers/isolated storms along and north of a KSLK to K1V4 line through 8-9pm or so. Given our deep boundary layer this afternoon (to 10 kft) any storm that does develop will have the potential to produce locally gusty winds and will continue this idea through early evening. The threat is conditional however. By later tonight skies gradually trend mostly clear and winds become light as surface high pressure returns to the region. Some patchy fog will be possible in any areas that do receive rainfall this evening, with highest probabilities across northeastern VT. Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance, generally from 45 to 55 with some variability. On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the ridge axis transitioning to our east over time. At this point have introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area. warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday. thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s... then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm temps. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place. they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of our area and showers spreading across the north country. && .AVIATION /19Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Through 18Z Thursday...VFR expected through the period. Weak frontal boundary passing through the region this afternoon will foster a wind shift to northwesterly in the 18-00Z time frame, after which winds trend light and variable overnight into Thursday morning. Along the front, just an outside chance of a shower/thunderstorm at northern terminals through 01Z or so. Threat is conditional at this time and confidence is low that any storm will discretely affect any terminal. If it were to occur, brief gusty winds and MVFR visibilities would be possible. After 12Z Thursday VFR continues under light northerly flow. Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday... 18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat apears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG

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