Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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989 FXUS61 KBTV 201457 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1057 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak and dry cold front will continue to traverse the North Country through the overnight hours. Behind the front temperatures will be slightly cooler but high pressure quickly builds back in. This will lead to dry conditions through the weekend with above normal temperatures across the region. The next chance for widespread rainfall occurs by Tuesday of next week as slow moving low pressure moves into the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1055 AM EDT Friday...Just a perfect Friday out there, and since I was handed a near perfect forecast, very little change was made for this mid-morning update. Enjoy! Previous Discussion...A dry airmass is in place behind the surface front that moved through the North Country overnight. We should be looking at a pair of excellent days with mostly sunny skies and no precip to speak of. Highs today behind the weak front will warm into the low to mid 60s with moderate 5-10kt northwesterly winds and occasional gusts to 15-20kts. Based on upstream obs and expected boundary layer mixing I`ve undercut guidance on dew points for the North Country as we should see relative humidities as low as 25-30%. The overall fire danger should be lower today however as the winds will be significantly lower across the region. With high pressure over the region, Friday night will see excellent radiational cooling in the valleys with temps dropping to the mid 30s to mid 40s which is still well above normal for mid-October. As the high starts to move offshore Saturday we get into southerly return flow which will boost low level RH and also see temps warm into the 70s making for a great day for outdoor activities.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 332 AM EDT Friday...Upper ridge with associated surface high pressure system remains in place over the area Saturday night and Sunday. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather is expected with above normal temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. Winds will generally be under 10 miles per hour. Overall should be a great day for outdoor activities. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 332 AM EDT Friday...Upper ridge moves gradually east Sunday night and Monday...but flow aloft becomes rather amplified. As a result...this should delay the onset of any precipitation which this time yesterday indications were there would be a threat of showers. However...it now looks like any precipitation will hold off until Monday night and the best chances for rain will come Tuesday into Wednesday when deep southerly flow develops over the area. Have likely to categorical precipitation chances in over the entire area during this time period. Eventually the trough axis shifts east Wednesday night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and decrease in areal coverage. Looking at a continuation of above normal temperatures through the period despite the clouds and precipitation. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...VFR is expected through the forecast period with wind again being the only aviation concern. Winds will generally be out of the northwest 8-12kts during the day and occasionally gusty generally from 14-21z this afternoon with gusts of 15-19kts. Overnight the winds will decouple and relax to nearly calm with drainage flow expected at RUT. Skies should be mostly clear after the high clouds due to the front exit to our east. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance RA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Definite RA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Have coordinated with fire officials and reissued special weather statement for today to bring awareness of breezy winds and dry weather increasing fire weather concerns. Fire officials advise against any open burning...including campfires on Friday across northern NY and VT. Expect northwest winds today between 10 and 15 mph with localized gusts 20 to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 25 to 35% range...with lowest values and strongest winds across portions of central and eastern VT on Friday afternoon. These conditions combined with the recent dry weather has resulted in the fine fuels such as leaves, grass, and small brush to become very dry. All these factors combine to increase the potential for any fires that do start to spread quickly and become difficult to contain. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance through tomorrow (Friday, 10/20) as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal/Lahiff NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Deal FIRE WEATHER...BTV EQUIPMENT...BTV

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