Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301903 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 303 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... AS OF 1049 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AS OF LATE MORNING AND ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ESP CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS) INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT KBTV AS OF 1000 AM. STILL LOOKING AT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVING EWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION FROM SW-NE...WITH TEMP VALUES OF +15 TO +16C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...SO WILL SEE PERIODS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. S-SW WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...BUT LOCALLY 20-25 MPH IN GUSTS (AND SUSTAINED 15-25 KTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN...WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY). WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THRU THE DAY AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE FOR LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED S-SW WINDS. THIS WILL HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS. LIKEWISE...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S...AND LOCALLY INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ACROSS NRN NY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN VT. ENOUGH WIND/INCR CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS MID- LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS NRN NY AND VT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE RESULTS IN PW VALUES OF 1.8-2" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY...DO ANTICIPATE SOME SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. COMBINED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL UVV...WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH BEST POTL FOR INSTABILITY. GIVEN HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND PW VALUES...CONTINUED WITH IDEA WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WLY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING EWD ENOUGH THAT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD THREAT. THAT SAID...A FEW LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF 1+" CAN/T BE RULED OUT. POPS GENERALLY 60-80 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT DURING SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 78-81F ACROSS THE REGION. SYSTEM SHEARS TO OUR EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY FLAT SEA- LVL PRESSURE FIELD SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG (ESPECIALLY AREAS GETTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY). LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY APPEARS GENERALLY QUIET AND CONTINUED WARM/HUMID. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S IN VALLEY SECTIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOT MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LABOR DAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH TO SW AT 5-10 MPH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW MARINE...WFO BTV

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