Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301440 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1040 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO VERMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT...BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1040 AM EDT TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER SURFACE RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, ALSO BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WI/IL. DOWNSTREAM VORTICITY MAX ACROSS OHIO/NWRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF AND NWRN PA PER REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AT 1130Z. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REACHING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES TOWARD 15Z...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY 20-23Z. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK PER 00Z NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT 100-500 J/KG ACROSS NRN NY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTN. CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS NRN NY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING INTO WRN VT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING 75-80F. ANTICIPATE HIGHS 80-81F AT BTV AND VSF. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AT 5-10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 307 AM EDT TUESDAY...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS LOWER MI AND OHIO...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SERN ONTARIO/WRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY GENERALLY WANES AFTER SUNSET...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 03Z WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDINESS WILL PRECLUDE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING APPRECIABLY...WITH EARLY AM LOWS MAINLY 60-65F. 10-METER WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH 5-10 MPH...AND LOCALLY 15-20 KTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. IT APPEARS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST 700-500MB HEIGHT FALLS 15-18Z WEDNESDAY. SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY RAMPED UP POPS TO 60-80 PERCENT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...WITH COINCIDES WITH BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT. CAPE VALUES LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER (LIMITED BY LACK OF MUCH INSOLATIONAL HEATING)...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BRIEFLY REACHING 1.50 IN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 74-78F. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND PARTIAL CLEARING. MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF THE CLEARING. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S PROVIDING FOR LOW HUMIDITY. MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY 00Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP DRY LAYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. STILL WATCHING S/W ENERGY ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH BEST CHCS FOR A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING A BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN 8 AND 10C FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WARM BTWN 11-13C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE M/U 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S WARMER VALLEYS. A FEW WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE TUES INTO WEDS OF NEXT WEEK...BASED ON CRNT MODEL TRENDS. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIFR IN FOG/BR AND CIGS OVERCAST AROUND 100 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT SLK/MPV THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL RACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFT 20Z TODAY...AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS NOT REACHING CROSS OVER VALUES. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL LOCALIZED DOWN POURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. IFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS IS POSSIBLE BTWN 18Z-00Z WEDS. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK IN 1922. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

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