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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 151146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY
ALLOWING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
AND CLOSER TO MID-MAY AVERAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 742 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FROST ADVISORY NO LONGER IN EFFECT AS
TEMPS CLIMBING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 30S...ALREADY INTO THE 40S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OTHER THAN INGESTING LATEST NUMBERS INTO
DATABASE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF FORECAST AREA INTO GULF OF
MAINE EARLY TODAY. WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SO AFTER A CLEAR AND CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE QUICKLY AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
HIGH. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH APPROACH
OF WARM FRONT. MODELS INDICATING SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR LATER TODAY. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE REGION...SO LOOKING FOR SOME WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 457 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT STILL CHANCE SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS. VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY DUE SOME SHADOWING FROM ADIRONDACKS DUE SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB
FLOW. MAINLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND
DIMINISH. MIN TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COOL...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE WILL MAKE
THEIR AWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC DURING THURSDAY. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS WELL. STEEP
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED INSTABILITY DRIVEN
SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S.

DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LITTLE CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CONTINUES.
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS
AND CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN OVER NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER WEST A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SETTING UP A
NICE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN US. OTHER THAN A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER EXITING NORTHWEST
FLOW...THE BTV CWA WILL GENERALLY EXPERIENCE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND LOWS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME
TUESDAY THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY (AND POSSIBLY LONGER) AS THE
BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY WET FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK AS
THE PATTERN IS VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN...BUT CERTAINLY IS TOO FAR
OUT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON ANY REAL SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND VERY MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 12-15Z TODAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS LIKELY. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SPOTTY
AS DEEP MOISTURE THINS AS IT APPROACHES...BUT WILL CARRY SOME
VFR/MVFR -SHRA IN THE FORECAST FROM ABOUT 19-02Z THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR IN LOW CIGS THROUGH 06Z AS
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. WAVES LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT MAY REACH
AS HIGH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...