Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271719 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 119 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND SPREADING INTO NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME...WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF VERMONT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STRENGTHEN AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VERMONT...WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL SHAPING UP TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TO INCLUDE NECESSARY ENHANCED WORDING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE. STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE...WGH

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