Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271739 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1239 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1214 PM EST TUESDAY...FCST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN WITH BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW LIFTING ACRS CENTRAL VT ATTM...WITH VIS AT MPV DOWN TO 1/4SM IN HEAVY SNOW. THIS BAND WL SLOWLY SHIFT TWD THE CHAMPLAIN THRU THIS AFTN...WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW EXPECT. CRNT RADAR SHOWS SNOW BREAKING UP ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...BUT EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THRU THE AFTN HOURS. HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM DUSTING TO 3 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/EASTERN DACKS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES CENTRAL VT...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS RUTLAND/ORANGE AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. WL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT HERE ACRS THE EASTERN CPV THRU THE AFTN HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW ONCE THE MID/UPPER LVL BECOME SATURATED...THE SNOW MAY STICK AROUND THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED WINDS ACRS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AS WE ARE SEEING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT ON NORTH FLW. COLCHESTER REEF SUBSTAIN AT 31 KNOTS AND DIAMOND ISLAND WAS 35 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE MENTION LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR THE LAKE AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT, EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW THROUGH 03Z. JUST WANTED TO GET THAT OUT THERE FIRST. CURRENTLY, CONDITIONS RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. BANDS OF SNOW ARE SLOWLY PUSHING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS VERMONT. IN SPOTS, THE SNOW DOES BRIEFLY RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM, BUT IN GENERAL IT`S MORE LIKE 3/4SM TO 1 1/2SM. RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE INITIAL BATCH OF SNOW IS DRYING UP AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT MAKES IT TO SLK, THOUGH IT APPEARS MSS WILL STAY VFR. RADAR ALSO SHOWING A "BREAK IN THE ACTION" DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VT/NH BORDER. IT COULD BE THAT THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE SNOW WONT LAST ALL THAT LONG (6 HOURS OR SO) IN ANY SPOT. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ALL THE WAY TO 12Z. GAVE IT MY BEST SHOT. IN GENERAL GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE BULK OF THE MODERATE SNOW & LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LAST UP TO 20-23Z OR SO, WITH DIMINSHING SNOW THROUGH 03Z (AND MVFR CONDITIONS). AFTER THAT, VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE. MAY END UP NEEDING TO AMEND FORECASTS IF THE RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE FORECASTS NEED SOME FIXING. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 20-25KTS SHOULD BE COMMON. PERHAPS SOME LOWER 30KT GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE TAFS, MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR AS WELL. FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD, LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012- 019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004- 007>009-018. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...NASH EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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