Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251148 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 748 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL BE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 745 AM EDT MONDAY...VISIBLE IMAGERY AS OF 730 AM SHOWS CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE REST OF OUR REGION HAVING JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS IN PLACE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES TODAY WHILE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE DRY AIR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AGAIN BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS MAKING INTO THE EDGE OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 50S TODAY...CONTINUING THE BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TREND WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME FORWARD PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN SHOWERS FROM 8 PM TILL ABOUT 2 AM. THEN WE WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 1000-1500 FEET WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO WET SNOW. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MENTIONED AFTER 2 AM FROM GOUVERNEUR TO SARANAC LAKE...VERGENNES TO CHELSEA...AND ALL AREAS SOUTHWARD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 411 AM EDT MONDAY...850MB FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED E-W FROM LAKE ONTARIO EWD ACROSS SRN VT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING HRS TUESDAY...AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS OF VT. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG WITH WAVE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL PA/SRN TIER OF NY DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH POPS (90-100%) SRN HALF OF CWA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH (40-60% ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH 850MB TEMPS -1C ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND AS COLD AS -5C TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PER 00Z GFS. SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATIONALLY DEPENDENT SNOWFALL WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY EARLY TO MID MORNING HRS ON TUESDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ABOVE 1000FT (1-2" OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN GREENS). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS AS WELL (COATING TO 1")...DEPENDING ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 30S EARLY TUESDAY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MINOR TRAVEL SLOWDOWNS FOR HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG N-S GRADIENT IN QPF EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH 0.25 TO 0.30" ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VT...AROUND 0.15" AT BTV...AND GENERALLY <0.10" CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH DRIER PBL AND LESSER FRONTAL FORCING. THE LARGE-SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS SEWD AND 700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST OF VERMONT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION END DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS TUESDAY WITH DIMINISHING POPS AND PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW- MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERALL TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL (AROUND 15DEG BELOW AVG). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 411 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WX AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH COOL/DRY NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD -- ALONG WITH MEAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO -- WILL REINFORCE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 40S ON WEDNESDAY...THEN GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FROM A FIRE WX PERSPECTIVE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES (GENERALLY <25%)...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDY PERIODS THAT WOULD BE OF GREATER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW MOVING LOW MOVING NEWD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST TO PRECLUDE ANY IMPACT...SO HAVE KEPT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAY 7 (SUNDAY). && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...TAF SITES ARE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WILL BISECT NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH RUT AND SLK EXPERIENCING THE LOWER CIGS AND BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE HIGH BASE CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF TILL 09Z OR LATER AND CEILINGS WILL ALSO GO DOWN TO MVFR AROUND THAT TIME. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUE - 00Z WED...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. 00Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...NEILES

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