Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261923 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 323 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH AN INFLUX OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TODAY...BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 136 PM EDT TUESDAY...FEW TO SCT CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NY BUT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ABOUNDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE M70S-M80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90. SOUTH TO SW FLOW CONTINUES TO CHANNEL UP THE SLV...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 426 AM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. BAND OF MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FRONT APPROACHING...ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION...WE CAN EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS 00Z THROUGH 06Z. SUPPORT FOR THUNDER GREATEST DURING THE EVENING OVER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SOME INSTABILITY INDICATED. BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND FALL APART AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY AND ALSO A DECREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH DECREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER BEING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE ENOUGH HEATING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. 850 MB TEMPS COOL FROM 13-16C IN THE MORNING TO 10-14C DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SOUTHERN VERMONT. COOLING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND AND JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A RATHER COOL...EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING A SIMILAR UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF ANYTHING, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EACH OTHER COMPARED TO THIS POINT 24 HOURS AGO. THIS LENDS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. DAILY SPECIFICS... FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, SO SUNNY AND DRY. 850MB TEMPERATURES 8-10C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S. CHANGES BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT TROUGH RAMPS UP. BASICALLY MEANS INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP THINGS WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL BLEND OF LOWS IN THE 50S LOOKS GOOD TO ME. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE PUSHING 1.75" OR A BIT HIGHER, SO THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. NO STRONG TRIGGERS ON SATURDAY, BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WE WILL SEE SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. GFS AND EURO DO SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY, SO KEEPING THE MENTION OF T-STORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA. AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES, INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OR JUST PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE THE SITUATION. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. MONDAY: MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY, SO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM. STUCK WITH MODEL BLEND AND HAVE PAINTED IN 30-50% POPS ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY: FINALLY WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OVER, LOOKS LIKE WEATHER WILL BE STARTING TURN DRIER. NOT LOOKING AT ANY COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL -- IF NOT A LITTLE BIT ABOVE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR ACROSS THE AREA. AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE FOR NEARLY ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DESPITE A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING AROUND MASSENA. CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT I ONLY MENTIONED VCSH. GUIDANCE STILL WANTS TO HAVE SLK AND MPV GET FOGGED IN LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS. WITH WINDS GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD, DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE BEST SITUATION FOR FOG. DID MENTION 2SM IN LIGHT FOG FOR MPV, BUT NOTHING AT SLK. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WED-00Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...NASH

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