Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290239 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW (FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW- MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK. 12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .MARINE... LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF MARINE...TABER

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