Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 080852 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 352 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET MORNING TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SITS JUST IN BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK WHICH LEAVES THE NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY AS SPECTATORS TO THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WEAK RIDGE LOSES ITS GRASP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS BECOME SATURATED THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE POINTS TO LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP FALLS. SIMILARLY THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND LIMITED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER. TEMPS ALOFT AT 925 MB WILL BE BETWEEN -6C TO -8C THROUGH THE DAY AND SLOWLY COOL TO -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S . && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNPHASED...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED BACK FROM COASTAL TO PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION FROM 2500 FEET TO 11,000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS ARE VERY WEAK...AND GIVEN NO ADVECTION OF AIR BECAUSE OUR CWA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 600MB DEVELOPING BY 06Z TUESDAY...WITH NO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECTING A FAIRLY UNIFORMED SNOWFALL OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WESTERN CWA....TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDS MORNING. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS AGAIN TO LIKELY/LOW CAT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDS MORNING...SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...AS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN WE ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COLD AIR DOES NOT HOLD AS MUCH MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDS. WE WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. THINKING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30F ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY 20S ON TUESDAY AND LOWS JUST SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ZERO TO 10 BELOW. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS DEPARTS...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SNOW COVER IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 15 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW AND LOW CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BRINGING BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE CIGS BECOME LOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD AS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AFTER 18Z MONDAY COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD VFR CIGS IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED VCSH AT BTV/PBG/SLK BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AND THEN DID GO AHEAD AND GO PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 01-02Z BUT DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS JUST YET. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUE-12Z WED...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. 12Z WED ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...DEAL

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