Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251901 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 201 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR. FORTUNATELY...A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 158 PM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MAINLY IN UPSLOPE REGIONS AS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...FIRST ASSCOAIED WITH ARCTIC FRONT THEN BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME MID/HI MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUDINESS...ESP SOUTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL CHILL DOWN ONCE AGAIN WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS BY THU MORNING...CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HOW COLD AND WIDESPREAD FOR SUB-ZERO. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 158 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE..SOME BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BUT IT WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER FRI-SAT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MORE ARCTIC AIR BUT MODIFIED COMPARED TO RECENT BOUTS. MAX T MAINLY 8-18 IN THE VALLEYS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS THU-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD AS LAST ARCTIC OUTBREAK...YET STILL SUB-ZERO FOR THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THUS THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS NOT LIKELY TO REQUIRE ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES. AGAIN...MODERATING TREND BEGINS JUST AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGER SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. MODELS ONCE AGAIN DIVERGE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND ONWARD WITH TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. THOUGH DIFFERENT IN TIMING...BOTH MODELS RIGHT NOW SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED...THOUGH A COUPLE PERIODS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ARCTIC FRONT PRODUCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD SEEING DRIER AIR AND EXPECT MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOST OF THE DAYTIME. AS THE FRONT CLEARS KMSS AND KSLK, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z/22Z. EASTWARD...SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY LESS IMPACTS THAN AREAS WEST BETWEEN NOW AND 22Z. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAINLY AFFECTING KMSS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BY 06Z, WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE SW-NW AT 3-8KTS WITH ALL SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. SKIES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH ONLY SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING TIL MORNING, WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SLW NEAR TERM...SLW SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...KGM

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