Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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440 FXUS61 KBTV 152355 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 755 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers can be expected through the rest of the afternoon across the North Country. Some of the showers will have embedded thunderstorms and they will have the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The area that will have the best potential to see these stronger storms will be northeast New York and the northern and central sections of Vermont. An upper level trough of low pressure track eastward across Quebec and swing a cold front through the North Country overnight. This leads to much cooler and drier weather expected for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for more widespread showers will come late Thursday night and especially on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...The potential still exists this afternoon and evening for some stronger storms to develop. Latest mesoanalysis shows ample instability at the surface with strong shear above 500mb. The 0-6km shear is a bit weaker so the only concern is whether the 60-80kts of shear aloft will be too strong for the 1000J/kg of CAPE and will shear off the top of any building thunderstorms. Best chance to see any activity will generally be across Vermont and the immediate Champlain Valley. The diurnally driven showers should taper off quickly this evening as we transition to some lingering orographic rain showers overnight. Lows this evening should fall into the mid 50s outside the Champlain Valley and in the low 60s near Lake Champlain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...Behind the upper level trough the flow becomes northwest which will act to drive in a drier airmass. High pressure develops and remains in firm control until late Thursday as an upper level trough slowly starts to increase cloud cover across the North Country. The main forecast challenges will be how cold do we bottom out at in the Northern Adirondacks Wednesday night. With calm winds/clear skies, I wouldn`t be surprised Thursday morning to see Saranac Lake in the 30s. Warm air advection returns though for Thursday as temps trend back towards near normal for Thursday afternoon and overnight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 412 PM EDT Tuesday...Available medium range guidance is showing good agreement through early next week. Period begins with ridging at the surface and aloft before sliding east of the area and bringing the return of precipitation early Friday. Heavy rainfall may become possible as PWAT values around 2" Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Surface front slowly moves east bringing and end to the precipitation Saturday. Quiet weather returns during the day Sunday and Sunday night as a ridge builds back over the eastern seaboard. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 12Z Wednesday...Scattered thunderstorms pushing east and southeast of BTV at 2345Z will impact MPV during the next hour with brief heavy rain, and ultimately clear the region by 02Z. Will see some partial clearing and patchy LIFR fog in the wake of this activity overnight. Have indicated dense fog at MPV/SLK after 06Z. VFR and clearing sky conditions expected during the daylight hrs Wednesday with north winds 8-10kts. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...Banacos/Manning

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