Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011139 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 639 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 624 AM EST SUNDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. QPF TOTALS FOR OUR AREA WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO SHADOWING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA...STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK. 00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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