Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201948 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 348 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The above normal temperatures will continue into Tuesday before a cold front moves out of Canada Tuesday night and ushers in much colder air into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. A warming trend will then take place Friday into Saturday. With the front Tuesday night...showers are expected...mainly in the form or snow...and some minor accumulations are possible in the mountains. Drier weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 347 PM EDT Monday...Clouds will continue to gradually increase across the area tonight. This will help to keep temperatures from falling significantly with lows expected to be in the 20s across the entire area. There may be some light snow showers later tonight...but no accumulations is expected. On Tuesday...there may be some lingering light rain or snow showers in the morning with temperatures climbing into the upper 30s to mid 40s...similar to today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 347 PM EDT Monday....The most noticeable change takes place Tuesday night with a sharp cold front dropping southward out of Canada. System is slower and therefore coming in at night when lapse rates will not be as steep as if it were coming through during the day. Nevertheless...lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to produce snow showers over a good part of the area...especially in the mountains where an inch or two will be possible late Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday. Low temperatures will bottom out early Wednesday morning with cold air advection in the northwest flow limiting high temperatures on Wednesday despite some sunshine developing in the afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in the single digits and teens with highs on Wednesday in the teens to around 20. Wednesday night will be in the coldest night with clearing skies and light winds. Lows Wednesday night should be in the single digits above and below zero.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 347 PM EDT Monday...High pressure at the surface with building ridge aloft will keep the North Country dry on Thursday with below normal temperatures from the influx of colder air on NW flow. As the surface ridge slides east into the Atlantic Thursday night, SW flow will begin to bring in warmer air. More active weather returns to close out the week as a warm front moves in sometime Friday. 12Z GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree on details of the warm front such as how far north it will progress. Expect at least portions of the North Country to be affected by snow changing to rain Friday. Both models show the front shifting south over portions of the North Country as a cold front Friday Night-Saturday with rain changing to snow late Saturday. Behind this front, colder Canadian air under high pressure attempts to keep bulk of moisture and lift from closed 500mb low to our south Saturday night through Sunday night. GFS continues to be more progressive with the closed low, shifting the surface high and associated dry air northward, allowing more precipitation to affect the North Country Sunday night into Monday. On the ECMWF, stronger high pressure keeps bulk of moisture to our south Sunday night. Another concern could be Ptype, but models lacking cohesion on thermal profiles 7 days out.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through at least 06z with a trend toward VFR and MVFR ceilings for the remainder of the period as more moisture moves down into the region. There may be some snow showers with this moisture after 06z...but mo obstruction to visibility is expected. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. 18Z Tuesday through Saturday... 18Z Tuesday - 12Z Wednesday...A strong cold front will bring scattered snow showers and possible snow squalls 00-06Z Wednesday. May see a "flash freeze" situation for airport ground ops with rapidly falling temps causing some icy spots on runways and taxiways during Tuesday night. Brief IFR conditions possible for 30 minutes or less. Will see a NW wind shift with gusts 25-30kts possible Tuesday night following frontal passage. 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...Flurries possible on Wednesday morning. Otherwise, gradual clearing and mainly bcmg VFR. High pressure will crest over the region Thursday with lighter winds. A warm front approaching from the SW Friday into Saturday will bring additional chances for rainfall, along with gusts S-SW winds and LLWS possible. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Evenson/Banacos

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