Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 192328 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 728 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of Vermont through about midnight tonight. Any of the showers or storms will have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall. Meanwhile only isolated to scattered showers are expected across northern New York. The area will remain under an upper level trough of low pressure on Tuesday and thus looking at the potential for more showers across the area. Gradual drying will take place on Wednesday and Thursday along with the return to more seasonal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 728 PM EDT Monday...Early evening update to cancel the Flash Flood Watch for our area as heavier convective rains have pushed east into NH & MA. Per latest CAM output just some lingering/scattered showers expected here and there for the overnight hours as our area will lie between departing deep moisture plume and additional shortwave troughing across the Great Lakes. Many areas will remain dry from sunset onward. Skies to gradually trend variably cloudy overnight with breaks here and there at times with low temperatures holding on the mild side (upper 50s to mid 60s). Could see some patchy fog in favored spots, but cyclonic flow aloft combined with the clouds and ambient 10-20 kt flow in the 500-1000 ft layer should inhibit widespread development. Have a great evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 509 PM EDT Monday...Large upper trough remains over the eastern third of Canada and the Great Lakes/Northeast regions. The cyclonic flow over the area suggests there will still be the threat of showers across the area on Tuesday...but conditions are not favorable for any organized convection. There may be some threat for thunder...but its fairly limited. High temperatures will be in the 70s to around 80. Areal coverage of showers will decrease Tuesday night then pick up again on Wednesday as upper trough axis finally shifts closer to the area. However...no strong signals with respect to forcing... shear...or instability to enhance the potential for thunder. Areal coverage of showers should be a little less than Tuesday and once again should decrease noticeably Wednesday night as upper trough axis moves east of the area. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday...Overall an active pattern with temperatures expected to be above normal through the weekend. Thursday will start off dry, under ridging at the surface and aloft. Embedded ripple of vorticity will approach the North Country late in the day, increasing chance for showers. Thursday night into Friday, a front will bring precipitation to the region but take its time moving across the region as upper level support in the form of mid- level vorticity will be lagging behind. GFS and ECMWF show boundary and associated precipitation affecting the North Country through Friday evening. Brief break in precip expected Friday night before the possibility of another wave bringing rain Saturday. Models diverge on next area of low pressure evolution and track for Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions to start the period with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving north northeastward into the forecast area. These showers and thunderstorms will produce brief periods of heavy downpours and deteriorate conditions to MVFR/IFR. Areas most likely to see thunderstorms this afternoon will be the Champlain Valley and areas east, especially at KRUT - which has a cluster of thunderstorms approaching from Hudson Valley and southern VT. Thunderstorms will produce strong gusty winds, heavy rain, gust fronts, possible turbulence and potentially small hail. Expect thunderstorm threat to diminish after sunset. Have lingering showers but not thunder after 03Z. With plentiful moisture still over the region heading into this evening, expect MVFR/IFR conditions to develop overnight. Chance for scattered light rain showers remains through the morning hours. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance scattered SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...None. NY...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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