Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221735 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 135 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S TO 30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 117 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ABNORMALLY COLD AIRMASS SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY SUPPORTING LOWS AREA-WIDE IN THE LOW-MID 30S WITH MID-UPPER 20S LIKELY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN OUR LOW TEMP FORECAST AND THE GROWING SEASON UNDERWAY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE BTV CWA EXCEPT FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY WHERE WE`LL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY. ALL BY ITSELF HEADLINE FREE WILL BE GRAND ISLE COUNTY WHERE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. WHERE THE FROST ADVISORY IS IN PLACE SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN REGARDS TO FROST DEVELOPMENT DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE, BUT FEEL IT`S BEST TO PLAY IT SAFE SINCE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS CAN VARY QUITE A BIT EVEN IN THE VALLEY. BEST TO COVER UP THOSE PLANTS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY A SUNNY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 40S. WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT BY AND LARGE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RETURN TO SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT MAINTAINS GENERAL CONTINUITY IN SHOWING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT SURGES INTO THE REGION. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SUCH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST AREA FULLY ENTERS A MID- SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY RETURNS. NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING HERE AND WITHOUT CLEARLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOLDING OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST MAINLY GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IDEA. BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY COME BY NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TRANSECT THE AREA. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A WARMER THAN NORMAL STRETCH AND BASED OFF MEAN 925-850 THERMAL PROFILES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. INDEED, IF YOU BELIEVE THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LITERAL, A FEW SPOTS COULD BE FLIRTING WITH 90F ON WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN 925 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20-22C IN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUT. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 18Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTN WITH CIGS BROKEN AT 6000 TO 8000 FEET AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AT MSS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-011. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...TABER

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