Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171913 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 313 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A RETURN TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1252 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ANY LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY REMAINING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +5 TO +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH INSOLATIONAL HEATING ...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 423 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL LOW PASS TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...TEMPS NOT ALL THAT COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 32-36F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. HAVE MAINTAINED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER 04Z...WHICH MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY NIGHTFALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +4 AND +6 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES. INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR AREA WIDE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. WHAT YOU SEE IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU GET FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WON`T BE MUCH, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. DID PUT IN A "VCSH" MENTION FOR SLK AND MSS SINCE IF THERE ARE ANY SHOWERS THE CHANCES THERE ARE A BIT HIGHER (~30%). WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR AT SLK AND MSS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD HAPPEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT BTV THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL, BUT AT THIS POINT LEFT THAT OUT. WITH THE CLOUDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH FOG. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR AT MPV SINCE THEY`LL HAVE LONGER TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT RELATED CLOUDS COME IN. IF WE HAD TAFS DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD VT (VSF), I`D BET THAT THEY STILL END UP AT LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. ANYWAY, CLOUDS BREAK UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO 18Z THURSDAY, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO MONDAY. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS. LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F 1979 RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F 1990 MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F 1959 ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F 1943 MASSENA (MSS)..........30F 2008 BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F 1959 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ002>012-016>019. NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...NASH CLIMATE...NASH

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