Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141059 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 559 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will exist over the entire Northeast today. Plenty of sunshine will exist...but high temperatures will be a few degrees below normal. An upper level disturbance will drop down from Canada later tonight into the first half of Sunday. This will increase clouds across the area and bring just a chance of snow showers to the northern Adirondacks and the north central and northeast portions of Vermont. High pressure builds back into the region Sunday night into Monday for dry weather. A warming trend will also begin on Monday with high temperatures a few degrees above normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 559 AM EST Saturday...Just some minor tweaks to the grids at this time. Adjusted lake effect clouds to point more toward the southwest with northeast winds flowing over Lake Champlain. Also increased areal coverage of the clouds this afternoon as flow pattern should bring clouds into the region from the eastern Great lakes. Otherwise...quiet weather is expected today with high pressure right over the region. Not expecting any precipitation and high temperatures will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. For tonight and Sunday...an upper level disturbance will move down from Canada and begin to increase clouds across the area from northwest to southeast. Not a lot of moisture will be associated with this feature. The light precipitation will likely be terrain drive and the going forecast for slight chance to chance precipitation probabilities for the northern Adirondacks and north central and northeast Vermont looks good. Best time for these snow showers will be from midnight tonight through about midday on Sunday before high pressure begins to return to the area late in the day. High temperatures on Sunday will be very similar to the readings on Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 303 AM EST Saturday...Looks like a quiet end to the holiday weekend with high pressure settling directly overhead Sunday night, pushing east off along Atlantic coast for MLK Day. Light winds and clear skies will lead to ideal radiational cooling, especially in areas that still have snowpack (which isn`t many). Thus, should see a pretty chilly night with single digits to low teens in the deeper Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, and single digits above and below zero elsewhere. For MLK Day, we start on the chilly side, but developing southerly return flow from the departing high will allow temps to rebound nicely into the upper 20s to low/mid 30s by the afternoon under partial sunshine. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 303 AM EST Saturday...Overall little change for the extended forecast from previous forecaster thinking, with an active period of weather expected. Highlights of the period will be yet another mixed precipitation event for the North Country during the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, followed by mainly dry conditions to end the work week with well above normal temperatures expected. Pretty good consensus amongst the 00z runs of the GFS/ECMWF/GEM showing primary low pressure pulling through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a secondary low developing along the Maine coast Wednesday afternoon/night. Very tricky forecast in regards to ptype for Tuesday afternoon and night as the warm front shifts through the area. Sounding profiles indicate mainly a rain event for the majority of northern New York and the Champlain Valley, but lingering cold air in the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont support the idea of a period of sleet and/or freezing rain Tuesday night before warm air advection wins over by 12z Wednesday. From there, rain is the dominant ptype for Wednesday while we`re in the warm sector, and it`s not until the secondary low develops Wednesday afternoon/evening that colder air returns aloft supporting a transition to rain/snow mix Wednesday night. Could potentially see a decent accumulation across the higher summits with the 700mb low situated just off to our northeast and strong northwesterly low/mid level flow developing, but really too soon to tell. One can hope though. Unfortunately, even if we get some snow on the mountains Wednesday night, mid/upper level ridging building in for the end of the week and warming mid levels will support temps well above normal for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, and lows only in the mid 20s to low 30s. Spring corn in late January? Looks like it. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions with mostly clear skies for the period. With arctic air moving in, may see some Lake Champlain induced clouds 08-12Z Saturday, and could see SCT- BKN015-020 somewhat close to BTV for a few hrs early Saturday morning. Main band of lake clouds should be to the west of BTV, but have included a SCT020 with a tempo window of BKN020 from 08Z-12Z just in case the clouds make it to over the airfield. Currently winds are light out of the northwest at 05-10 and will continue to weaken overnight. Winds will become light S-SW during the day Saturday. 06z Sunday onward...Primarily VFR with surface high pressure through Monday. A weak upper level disturbance may bring some mountain snow showers 06-18Z Sunday with HIR TRRN OBSCD across the nrn Greens for a time. Next large-scale precipitation system tracks to our west Late Tuesday into Wednesday. Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR in mainly rain, possibly as early as late Tuesday...but more likely Tuesday night or Wednesday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...MV

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