Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 031859 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 259 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD VERY WARM...MODERATELY HUMID...AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1259 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONDITIONS JUST AREN`T REAL FAVOURABLE RIGHT NOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DIFFICULT TO EVEN FIND RIGHT NOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD SHUNT ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS SUCH I DID DROP DOWN TO JUST MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF DOES HAVE SOME SPOTTY CELLS DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-21Z ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NY AND OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR IN VERMONT BUT IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO REALLY DEVELOP MUCH. WITH FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 13,000-14,000 FT RANGE IT`S GOING TO TAKE A VERY TALL SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING STRONG TO SEVERE AND WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND WEAK SURFACE FORCING THAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 723 AM EDIT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT RADAR IS RATHER QUIET AT THIS TIME. DESPITE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...FOG HAS FORMED IN MANY OF THE FAVORED LOCALES...BUT SHOULD BE LIFTING OR DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) INDICATED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS DOESN`T OCCUR TILL TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME LATE NIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. TEMP PROFILE SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH FEATURES THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY...RIDGE ALOFT IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C...SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR 80F MTN TOWNS TO M/U 80S WARMER VALLEYS. ON MONDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORT TRAVELS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FCST DRY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WARMER VALLEYS AND LOWER 80S MTNS. HAVE NOTED SOME DIFFERENCE WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROF ON TUES ACROSS OUR CWA. GFS SHOWS BETTER RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF HOLDS STRONG RIDGE FIRM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE...THINKING SYSTEM FOR TUES WILL DISSIPATE AND WEAKEN BEFORE HAVING MUCH IMPACT OVER OUR AREA. BY WEDS/THURS...MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THRU OUR CWA. ONCE AGAIN...BETTER DYNAMICS WITH 5H VORTICITY WILL BE LIFTING NW OF OUR CWA...WITH JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE. GIVEN PROGGED MOISTURE FIELDS AND SYSTEM LIFTING NW...INSTEAD OF DIGGING SE...QPF WINDOW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL BE SHORT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS WEDS INTO THURS...WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT SOME HUMIDITY TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CIGS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL VT INTO PARTS OF ESSEX COUNTY NY. BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM WILL BE ACROSS MPV/RUT WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS AT MSS/BTV SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY WITH GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY 20Z THIS AFTN. TONIGHT FOCUS WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG. A FEW ITEMS THAT ARE DIFFERENT INCLUDE, STRONGER BL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EVEN UP TO 20 KNOTS NEAR MSS...AND DRIER DEWPOINTS DEVELOPING ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BTWN 06-07 AT MPV/SLK AND TEMPO AT BTV ASSOCIATED WITH NE FLOW. LACK OF BL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT FOG/BR AT BTV...GROUND IS DRY. STRONG BL WINDS WILL LIMIT FOG/BR PRODUCTION AT MSS AND RUT. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR FOG/BR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV BTWN 06Z-12Z EACH MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS/DEAL SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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