Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251718 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1218 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE A MILD CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MOST VALLEY SECTIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING DRIER AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1214 PM EST THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH AS NO RIVER FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED AND ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE CRESTING OR STARTING TO RECEDED ATTM. THIS TREND WL CONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SFC LOW PRES TRACKING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FA. THIS COMBINED WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS...PREVENTING GOOD MIXING IS RESULTING IN SFC WIND GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 40 MPH. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED ACRS THE SLV AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. THEREFORE THE WIND HEADLINES HAVE ALSO BEEN CANCELLED. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CAPTURE LATEST SFC TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 323 AM EST THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 15DEG ABOVE LATE DECEMBER NORMALS. AS SFC LOW DEPARTS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BUILDS EWD INTO THE NERN CONUS TONIGHT...AND REMAINS THRU SATURDAY. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS SERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTEROON. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR ISOLD RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40-44F RANGE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MOST VALLEY SECTIONS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 322 AM EST THURSDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE IN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE, COULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER, AS MAXES START AT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND COOL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL MAX SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY COOL BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT MVFR AT SLK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPING (PBG SHOULD BE LAST TO LOWER TO MVFR AND MAY STAY VFR THROUGH 12Z). COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AT SLK WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CEILINGS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS AT MSS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRIDAY-18Z SATURDAY...BRIEF RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT PERIODS OF LINGERING MVFR STILL POSSIBLE. 18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...A CHC OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY MSS/SLK/MPV. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. && .HYDROLOGY... COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ISOLD 0.1-0.25" RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THAT SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF WITH THIS EVENT. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN FORECAST...WHICH IS LIMITING THE FLOOD THREAT. ONLY ACTIVE FLOOD WARNING IS FOR THE AUSABLE RIVER AT AUSABLE FORKS (ASFN6)...BUT EVEN THAT SITE HAS LEVELED OFF FOR NOW A BIT BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. HAVE LEFT THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT WITH TEMPS LOW-MID 50S...BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH LATER THIS MORNING. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU TODAY, CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS...AND CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS UPWARD OF 40 KT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD TOWARD 15-25 KTS LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY LATE EVENING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...MUCCILLI HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV MARINE...WFO BTV

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