Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261754 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 154 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD BRINGING WET SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ELEVATION...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SUMMITS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS QUICKLY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER BUT CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1157 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK AS WE ARE NOW STARTING TO SEE THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH NOW EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SNOW WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AS A RESULT WITH A BACK EDGE TO THIS WHOLE SYSTEM NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EVENTUALLY ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO WARM WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. QUIET AND MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SEWD FROM NRN ONTARIO. CHILLY AIR MASS FOR LATE APRIL WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOW-MID 20S NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND UPR 20S FOR S-CENTRAL VT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 429 AM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EMBEDDED VORT MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COME THURSDAY, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND EAST. AS THIS TROUGH EXITS, SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE FROM KANSAS/NEBRASKA AREA EASTWARD TOWARD CHICAGO BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THIS FEATURE WILL BE REFLECTED AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOW WILL TRANSLATE OFFSHORE FRIDAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY OVER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN ON NW FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE DRYING OUT FINE DEAD FUELS. BUT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT LESS THAN 12KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS LESS THAN 20KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 429 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS DISPLAYING LOTS OF DISPARITY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND SNOW TO CONTINUE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS BY 20Z AND REMAINING IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT KRUT TONIGHT HOWEVER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...EVENSON/BANACOS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...EVENSON

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