Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201729 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 129 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1040 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THESE AREAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 732 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER. SOME NOTICEABLE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT QUICKER. OTHERWISE... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MIGHT CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RUTLAND AREA. ELSEWHERE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. GOING FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK MAKES SENSE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...EXPECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECAST AND MODELS CONT TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM FOR WEDS...BUT SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE TOWARD THE END OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON TUES...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. LOWS BY WEDS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S MOUNTAINS/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH BREEZY WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS...ADVECTING 85H TEMPS TO 17C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WARMER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS HEAT...WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND 1800 J/KG AND LI VALUES BETWEEN -3 AND -5 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z WEDS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM 18Z WEDS TO 06Z THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT A PERIOD OF ONLY 1 TO 2 HRS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS 12 HR WINDOW. SOUNDING PROFILES CONT TO SHOW A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THRU 500MB...WITH MODERATE VELOCITIES RESULTING IN 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN CURRENT HWO ON STORM POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 11,500 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS ARE LIKELY...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS AND RECENT DRY SPELL...MINIMAL HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BY 12Z THURS BEST 5H PVA IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS APPROACHING OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTION WILL CONT TO MENTION CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY. IF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT...THESE POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO LIKELY...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. DRY AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TROF OVERHEAD AND BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP. 12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...LAHIFF

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