Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151923 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 323 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AT 19Z WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15" TO 0.30" ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS THAN LAST NIGHT...AND PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 50F AT BTV/MSS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 10MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTINESS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL 5-10 MPH S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 318 PM EDT MONDAY... ON TUESDAY...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST OF VERMONT BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY ALLOWING MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST- EAST. THE NAM AND BTV-WRF 4KM/12KM RUNS ALL INDICATE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH JUST THE PROSPECT OF A LINGERING SPRINKLE OF TWO LATE IN THE MORNING. POPS LOWER QUICKLY FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT AT 12Z DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT BY 15Z. NEAR-SATURATED RH CONDITIONS REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN THE 925-875MB...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST SECTIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON PEEKS OF SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. TUESDAY NIGHT...A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SW-NE WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. POPS NIL. MAIN QUESTION WOULD BE PRESENCE OF ANY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...WHICH MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NERN VT. WITH DEGREE OF RADITIONAL COOLING IN QUESTION DUE TO CLOUD UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR NOW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 30S ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF CLEARING SKIES CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING WOULD ALSO YIELD SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE WINOOSKI...CONNECTICUT...AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC. WEDNESDAY... WE/LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-UPPER CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW- MID 60S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT CRISP AS WELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE W-SW SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 5-8 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE) AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL JUST BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A SW-NWLY WIND SHIFT...AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MTNS OF VT AND FAR NRN NY. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 417 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT INDICATED. BEHIND THE FRONT...850 MB TEMPS DROP TO TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2C DURING THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SIGNAL A WARMUP...BUT THE TRANSITION TO MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. DURING SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREA WIDE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING, THE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY IN THE 01-04Z TIMEFRAME, SPREADING EAST INTO VERMONT BETWEEN 04-06Z. WITH THE SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND ULTIMATELY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORIES. IN GENERAL THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO MIX IN AT SLK AND MPV, SO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ONCE AGAIN IFR TO LIFR FOR MPV AND SLK, BUT DID NOT GO THAT LOW IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS END PRIOR TO 12Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 15Z IN VERMONT. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR, AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY VERY WELL HANG ON IN MANY AREAS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR IN A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR WITH LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR SLK AND MPV IS ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...NASH

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