Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151005 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 505 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... As an upper level disturbance moves across the area this morning producing some light snow...primarily over the northern Adirondacks of New York and the northern half of Vermont. Very little in the way of accumulation is expected. High pressure builds into the region from Canada this afternoon and remains over the area through Monday. Thus drier weather is expected and a warming trend will begin starting Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 505 AM EST Sunday...Areal coverage of light snow has increased over the northern half of Vermont this morning and have adjusted the forecast to indicate a greater likelihood for light snow...but still with very little in the way of accumulation. Otherwise...clouds will continue to linger over the area through this afternoon with highs in the upper teens to upper 20s. High pressure builds into the region tonight and Monday. As a result...dry weather is expected during this time period. More sunshine is expected on Monday and with developing southerly flow...high temperatures should be several degrees warmer than Sunday with readings getting into the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 259 AM EST Sunday...Generally quiet conditions are expected for Monday night through the majority of Tuesday as surface high pressure persists over the North Country. For Monday night, weak shortwave energy passing north of the area combined with some lingering low level moisture may spark a few snow showers across our northern tier zones, but most of the area should remain dry under partly cloudy skies. Tuesday begins a warming trend that we`ll see through the week with highs pushing well into the 30`s area-wide with southerly flow increasing ahead of our next system. More on that below. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 259 AM EST Sunday...Active weather returns for the mid- week time-frame as we continue to monitor the likelihood for yet another mixed precipitation event, followed by mainly dry conditions to end the work week with well above normal temperatures expected. Consensus amongst the latest runs of GFS/ECMWF/GEM have slowed the arrival time of precip compared to yesterdays model suite, but overall the synoptic pattern hasn`t changed much highlighting primary low pressure pulling through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a secondary low developing along the Maine coast Wednesday afternoon/night. Trends on this mornings runs though have favored a weaker primary low and stronger secondary offering slightly cooler 925mb temps Tuesday night which has changed our forecast a bit to limit the potential for freezing rain, and highlight more of a snow sleet mix instead. Mix hangs on a little longer into Wednesday morning across eastern Vermont as well, before warm air advection wins over by 18z where thereafter rain is the dominant ptype until the secondary low develops Wednesday afternoon/evening and colder air returns aloft supporting a transition to rain/snow mix Wednesday night. Still several days away to dial in the forecast, but our first guess at accumulations is a couple of inches of snow and sleet east of the Greens Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, enough to make for a messy commute. As the secondary low bombs out over the Gulf of Maine, north-northwesterly low/mid level wrap around moisture will keep some scattered rain and snow showers around for Thursday, but by days end surface high pressure and an upper ridge building over the central CONUS will begin to shift eastward. Highs Wed/Thu will be in the mid 30s to low 40s, and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s Friday/Saturday are dominated by high pressure both at the surface and aloft, with mid-levels remaining very mild for late January supporting highs continuing well above normal in the mid 30s to low 40s under partial sunshine. && .AVIATION /10Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 06Z Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. An upper shortwave trough will move southeast from Canada tonight, with a slight chance of snow showers possible, mainly over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. With that, KSLK will be the lone exception with MVFR ceilings and snow showers possible through 11Z. After that conditions improve to VFR for the rest of the period. Winds will be light and variable overnight before swinging west-northwest on Sunday morning to 10-15 knots for most locations before again going light and variable to end the period. 06z Monday onward...Primarily VFR with surface high pressure through 18Z Tuesday. Next large-scale precipitation system tracks to our west Late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR in mainly rain, possibly as early as late Tuesday...but more likely Tuesday night or Wednesday. Thursday...mainly becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...MV

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