Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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294 FXUS61 KBTV 221737 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 137 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon as a low pressure system off the coast of the DelMarVa peninsula slowly pushes northeast towards the New England coastline. Temperatures will be near normal to end the weekend and then trend warmer by the middle of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 123 PM EDT Sunday...No changes to this near term portion. Forecast continues to track well with current conditions. Morning sprinkles have dissipated and moved on, with new afternoon convection forming in Northeast Kingdom of Vermont where sun broke out this morning with surface instability. LAPS surface based CAPE up to 500-700 j/kg, with little if any cap. Precip moving in an odd southwesterly direction with closed upper low to southeast providing the steering flow. Some lightning noted in storms over NH but for the most part only showers. Current pops/weather forecast has this handled well so no chances there. Temps warming into the upper 60s/low 70s as forecast and no changes there. Overnight tonight weak surface front will push on through the region and and 500 mb low continues to cut off and sag to the south. Ridge of high pressure to build in from the west at surface and aloft, and subsidence to allow for some clearing skies and light winds. Fog formation possible tonight especially in areas where rainfall today will moisten up the boundary layer. With good radiational cooling min temps to drop back into the upper 40s/low 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 237 AM EDT Sunday...Vertically stacked low pressure system drifts east of the Delmarva peninsula during the day Monday, with newd extending trough along the New England coast remaining in place. It appears that overall movement/shift of this system to the east will allow for drier air to advect into the North Country on northerly low-level flow. As such, only included a slight chance of showers across Rutland/Windsor counties for Monday afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny skies (more sun north) along with 850mb temps around +10C will yield pleasant afternoon temps with highs 74-78F in most areas...and dewpoints dropping into the mid-upr 40s for much of the northern 2/3rds of the region. The vertically stacked low pressure system begins a slow northward turn later Monday night, reaching an area east of NJ by daybreak Tuesday. This should result in increasing mid-upr level cloud cover across central and s-central VT during the overnight period Monday night. Maintained just a slight chance of showers across Orange/Windsor/Rutland Counties on nrn periphery of this system. Increasing clouds across VT will keep lows on the mild side, generally in the lower 50s. May see some mid-upr 40s across nrn NY where thinner and less extensive cloud cover is forecast. The closed 500mb low tracks nnewd across sern MA on Tuesday. System is equivalent barotropic in nature, and likely will be associated with bands of showers around the w/nw periphery rather than broader zone of stratiform precipitation. Have included PoPs 40-60 percent attm, with precipitation amts 0.1-0.2" for most sections of VT, with lighter amts across nrn NY further removed from the low center. May see some locally heavier amts given PW values reaching 1.2" per 00z GFS, and potential instability around 500 J/kg leading to a few embedded tstms. Some of the tstm potential for depend on overall extent of clouds and whether or not PBL heating/destabization can occur across the region. We will continue to monitor. Deep layer NE flow would result in slow w-sw storm motions if embedded convection were to develop. Highs on Tuesday generally expected in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 237 AM EDT Sunday...Upper low departs east of New England on Wednesday, resulting in drier conditions and a transition toward a warmer and more humid overall weather pattern for the bulk of the extended forecast period. There has been an increase in run-to-run variability in the GFS and ECMWF...making daily details a bit uncertain. Anticipate highs Wednesday in the mid-upr 70s with just a slight chance of a late aftn/eve shower. Building heights and strengthening SW low-level flow should yield highs into the lower 80s for some valley locations Thursday/Friday/Saturday. Will likely also see a gradual increase in humidity with dewpoints getting into the lower 60s by Friday into Saturday. With air mass becoming more moist/unstable, PoPs continue generally 30-40% each day. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/...
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Through 18Z Monday...VFR with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly central and southern Vermont this afternoon, then patchy IFR visibility in fog in mountainous TAF sites during early morning hours. rain showers forming in instability in northeast Vermont where sunshine has broken out, and are tracking southeast ahead of a slow moving surface front. Potential for MVFR vis and VFR cigs in the showers, however kept all VFR in actual TAFs. Showers to dissipate with loss of surface heating, then clearing skies. KMPV and to a lesser extent KSLK will have some residual moisture from afternoon showers combined with radiational cooling to produce some IFR fog in the 07-12z timeframe. Conditions improve to VFR clear after 12z. Outlook 18Z Monday through Friday... 18z Mon - 12z Tue: VFR/high pressure 12z Tue - 12z Thu: VFR with chance of afternoon showers Tuesday and Wednesday with brief MVFR visibility restrictions. 12z Thursday - Friday: VFR/high pressure.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Hanson

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