Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 050801 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 401 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL 5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR BTV AND MSS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT 00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN 15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z- 09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND 1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY. AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE. 00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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