Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161749 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 149 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected across the North Country through Thursday night as high pressure builds over the northeast. Temperatures will quickly return to seasonal normals Thursday and Friday. A low pressure system approaching the area on Friday will bring a return of showers and a few thunderstorms beginning Friday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 132 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure lower dewpoints and subsidence will lead to star filled skies tonight. This will lead to a cool night especially in sheltered valley locations as winds will be light with clear skies. Fog may form in the most favored valley locations overnight but this will quickly burn off early Thursday morning. Overnight lows will be cool for this time of year with lows in the lower 50s in the Champlain Valley with some locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom reaching down to near 40. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 132 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure remains over the area on Thursday leaving a stellar day across the board with temperatures returning to near normal with light winds. Clouds advancing ahead of the next system moving into the Great Lakes should hold off until Thursday night. Model consensus continues to show precipitation holding off until Friday, and most likely friday afternoon and evening. Have continued the trend of keeping POPs restrained early Friday and ramping up through the day with highest pops Friday evening. Model forecast soundings show at least some modest elevated instability so have some thunder chances included as well. The system will be fairly progressive so lingering heavy rainfall potential appears to be low despite PWATs increasing to between 1.5 and 2" as indicated by the GFS. Overall a solid moderate rainfall event for much of the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 401 AM EDT Wednesday...Guidance continues the trend of consistency between models of the last few days after being worlds apart. The other consistency is the slower progression of the northern plains system eastward as much of the energy is rotating NNE across northern Great Lakes and Ontario but eventually pushes east into and through FA. By this forecast period (Friday night) the occluded front is pushing into the CWA with the best lift/moisture moving across VT. By 12z Sat the front is east of region but upper level trof is still back across Great Lakes with several spokes of energy still to rotate across the region. Timing and daytime heating/instability means another threat of SHRA/TSRA Sat aftn/eve with the final upper level trof passage during Sunday morning. There still may be enough moisture and instability for some orographic showers Sunday. Ridging at all levels approaches Sunday night and then slides southeast by late Monday-Monday night. A rather nice late summer day with highs above seasonable ...in the lower 80s. Another trof digging into the Northern Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes (sound familiar) drops in on Tuesday with SW flow at all levels behind the ridge and ahead of this system. This shortwave/cold front appears more vigorous and its just a matter of timing. Very Slight timing differences with Tue ngt/Wed AM time frame. Moderate instability expected with temps in L-M80s and 60s dewpoints and heights will be falling thus a chance of thunderstorms late (esp in NY). Decent gradient looks like enough shear that possibly strong to severe depending on timing. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...Decreasing cloud cover and relatively light winds will be the story through Thursday at TAF sites. Only wrinkle will be the potential for a bit of fog overnight at KMPV and KSLK where overnight low temps should go several degrees below crossover temps. This being offset to some extent by dryer air moving into the region. All in all have included a couple of hours of fog overnight in the favored locations. Any fog will quickly dissipate Thursday morning leaving VFR conditions with light winds. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Manning NEAR TERM...Manning SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Manning

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