Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 182334 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 734 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The threat for showers and storms will increase as the night wears on...especially across northern New York where the potential for strong winds and heavy rainfall will exist. The threat of heavy rainfall will continue over northern New York during the overnight hours. The threat of stronger storms producing gusty winds...hail...and heavy rainfall will shift into Vermont on Monday. The threat of flash flooding will also exist across Vermont Monday and Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 734 PM EDT Sunday...Overall forecast in good shape with stronger storms moving across northern New York and will eventually move into Vermont as the night wears on. Strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the main threats and going forecast has this covered well. Previous Discussion... Composite analysis continues to show the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across the Saint Lawrence Valley and possibly into the northern Adirondacks. Deep layer shear continues to increase over the top of CAPE values over 1000 J/kg over the Saint Lawrence Valley and this should enhance the potential for strong to severe storms over the next several hours. The eastward progression of storms is somewhat limited as upper trough moves very little tonight and storms move more north than east. With the loss of instability tonight...may just be dealing with heavier rainfall across the northern Adirondacks during the overnight hours. Areas from the Champlain Valley eastward may see some convection overnight... but strong/severe threat should be over and there may just be some brief downpours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 PM EDT Sunday...Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Noon on Monday through midnight Monday night. Composite analysis continues to show the threat for stronger storms...but with approaching surface boundary oriented parallel to the upper flow and axis of two inch precipitable water values from the Champlain Valley eastward across the remainder of Vermont... threat for excessive rainfall will be the main threat. At this time...the best potential appears to be across areas south and east of Burlington Monday afternoon and night. For Monday night through Tuesday night...axis of deeper moisture shifts east but areas remains in southwest flow aloft with upper trough axis to the west. As a result...still cannot rule out the possibility of showers...especially Monday night and Tuesday with areal coverage tapering off Tuesday night. A return to more seasonal temperatures is expected during this time period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 256 PM EDT Sunday...One broad trof at the beginning of this period being replaced by another trof late in the period with a series of disturbances and fronts makes for a messy forecast period with seasonable temperatures and shower threat through the period. Wed/Thu: trof axis pushing through Wed with some showers as frontal boundary moves through then some minor shortwave ridging for Wed ngt/ early Thu for a dry period, It appears some minor energy and push if some warmer air will bring about some warm frontal showers possibly late Thu/Thu ngt. Fri: Developing Great Lakes trof with a decent shortwave moving toward area Fri Ngt-Sat will send a cold front across the area late Fri-Fri ngt for showers/t-storms. Sat: Some shortwave ridging developing thus mainly dry but can`t rule out an instability shower on Sat. Sun: Another shortwave dropping across Great Lakes toward Northeast with more showers/t-storms possible Late Sunday-Sunday night across NY moving into VT. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 00Z Tuesday...Storms continue to move across northern New York this evening and will continue moving northeast through midnight. Strong gusty winds...frequent lightning...and heavy rainfall can be expected along with periods of VFR to IFR conditions depending the proximity of the storms. This should last through 04z. Then only looking at showers during the overnight hours with VFR to MVFR conditions. The next potential for MVFR to IFR conditions will be across Vermont after 17z on Monday as showers and storms become more numerous once again. Winds will be gusty from the southwest tonight and though much of the period with gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range through 12z before tapering off just a bit. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... A flash flood watch continues from Noon on Monday through Monday evening for the potential for flash flooding associated with very heavy rainfall rates in thunderstorm activity across Clinton and Essex counties in New York and all of Vermont. High rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour with isolated higher amounts possible in the stronger convective elements will increase the potential for flash flooding Monday afternoon and night. Initially the threat will be across northern New York tonight...before shifting into Vermont by Monday afternoon. The greatest potential for flash flooding will be across the higher terrain and urban areas with poor drainage...especially over areas south and east of Burlington. Rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers are possible in areas of the most persistent showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect tonight for south winds at 15 to 25 knots. These winds will continue to create very choppy conditions with waves of 1 to 3 feet and some higher swells possible over the north end of the late. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by this evening...which could cause gusty and erratic winds. Boaters should keep a close eye on the sky this evening and seek harbor if threatening weather approaches. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NYZ028-031-034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Evenson HYDROLOGY...Evenson/Taber MARINE...Evenson/Taber

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