Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011902 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 302 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH LINGERING PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. AFTER A FOGGY START EARLY WEDNESDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 256 PM EDT MONDAY...COOL AIR MASS (AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM NRN VIRGINIA NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NY...WITH REGIONAL COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS NRN VT AT 18Z. PRECIPITATION RATES (AND AREAL COVERAGE) GRADUALLY LESSENING WITH DRIER MID- LEVEL AIR AND WEAKENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. AS FORCING CONTINUES TO LESSEN...WILL SEE THESE DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS TONIGHT...BUT QPF AMTS GENERALLY 0.05-0.15" RANGE...AND LOCALLY NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH AS OF MID-AFTERNOON (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS). TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH WITH STRATUS AND LIGHT E-NE FLOW IN PLACE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S...ONLY DROPPING 5-8 DEGREES FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 256 PM EDT MONDAY...IT APPEARS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS ERN NY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL SEE CLOSED 500MB LOW...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT LKS...ROTATE EWD AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...MID-LEVEL DRYING AND LOSS OF SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTN. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT STRATUS LAYER...SO ANTICIPATE CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS (5-10 MPH) WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ONCE AGAIN...YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 55-60F. MAY SEE A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. FOR POPS...INDICATED CHANCE 40-50 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL SEE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES...AND THE AMPLE RAINFALL RECENTLY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...WHICH COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...BUT A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NERN VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION COULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FOG SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF A BRAKE ON FALLING TEMPS THAT FROST APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THOSE OUTLYING AREAS ATTM. SHOULD SEE FOG AND LINGERING STRATUS ERODE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND SHOULD TREND MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...AS MIXING LOOKS A BIT TOO SHALLOW IN MODEL SOUNDINGS (PERHAPS DUE TO WET GROUND). WITH 850MB TEMPS +7 TO +9C...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK BEST. CONTINUED QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES <0.5IN AND 1000-500MB RH VALUES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT IN 12Z GFS. LIGHT WINDS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL FOG...BUT SHOULDN/T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT LOCALLY NEAR 40F AT SARANAC LAKE AND FAR NERN VERMONT. POPS NIL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 352 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL A BIT COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...BUT HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS MORNING. THIS DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES DURING FRIDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 30-40 POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN DECREASES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG WITH LOWER RELATIVELY HUMIDITY LEVELS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...STRATIFORM SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS AT KBTV AND KRUT WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LESS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. MOST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV AND KSLK. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH DRYING TREND. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY...SCT -SHRA SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. MVFR CIGS/VSBY GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE IFR IN FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RIVERS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER BRIEFLY REACHED JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT 7.0 FEET. THE MAD RIVER AT MORETOWN (MOOV1) BRIEFLY REACHED ACTION STAGE (BETWEEN 8-9 FEET)...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN BELOW 8 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL RUNOFF IN THE CHAMPLAIN BASIN SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE CHAMPLAIN RISES FROM AROUND 96.5 FEET UP TO 96.8 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...KGM HYDROLOGY...BANACOS

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