Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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928 FXUS61 KBTV 052019 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 319 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 314 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MAKES IT WAY NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE PICS INDICATING THIS CLEARING TREND NOW IN PROGRESS...WITH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO THICKER CLOUDS LATER AT NIGHT AS FLOW BACKS TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH ALLOWS FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A DUSTING TO MAYBE 2 INCHES...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW LEVEL TEMPS MILD ENOUGH SO THAT A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...FOR MUCH OF VERMONT SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET, HOWEVER, FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX RIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTER EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH TRACKS TOWARDS THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND MID LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CROSS LAKE ONTARIO I ANTICIPATE SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL HOWEVER AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH BELOW THE SATURATED DGZ WILL ONLY BE 70-80% SO DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT TOTAL SNOW. AS THE MAIN PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH THE NORTH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO WAS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS NOW KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THAT WELL TO THE NORTH IN QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOESN`T TURN NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND SO I STILL EXPECT THE GLANCING BLOW OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT IT WILL MAINLY STAY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN AFFECT CENTRAL VERMONT AND SOUTHWARD. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPS UP ON SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 AND THEN BEHIND THE SYSTEM EXPECT A SHARP COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE DAY AND RAPIDLY COOLING TO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY....ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT EXACTLY HOW THINGS DEVELOP IS STILL A LITTLE MURKY. USING A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN ROTATING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE INTENSIFYING AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. NEITHER REALLY POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT INTO A STRONG COASTAL AS THE VERTICAL STACKING IS POOR. AS SUCH SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO COME BY HOWEVER WE WILL BE UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A POTENT SOURCE FOR ENERGY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR A LONG DURATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES TRENDING SKC BY THIS EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE SLK WHERE OCNL MVFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CIGS VFR AT MOST SITES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT SLK/MSS WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS SLK/MSS ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SAT-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...RJS

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