Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281444 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1044 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. READINGS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1043 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING SOME AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP TRENDS SHOWING THIS FOG BURNING OFF AT THIS TIME AND EXPECTING FOG TO BE GONE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ANOTHER SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON THAT ARE NO MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 656 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ESSENTIALLY MATCHED OBSERVATIONS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK. OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH REGION BEING DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. IF ANYTHING LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS UP 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR RECORD HIGHS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. BURLINGTON AND SAINT JOHNSBURY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WINDS ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 349 AM EDT SUNDAY...LOOK FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT THEN WE START TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF CANADA WILL WANT TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND APPROACH THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PROBLEM IS THIS FEATURE DOES NOT CONTINUE MOVING DOWN INTO OUR AREA AND GETS HUNG UP NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IN FACT...TROUGH BREAKS APART TUESDAY AND PART OF IT FINALLY MOVES DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE FCST WHICH SUPPORTS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OVERHEAD THRU THE WEEK AND DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT CHC FOR RAIN WL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND WESTERN CONUS TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY IMPACT OUR REGION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDS INTO THURS. THIS WL PRODUCE SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR REGION...AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACRS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...PER LATEST 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS. OTHERWISE...THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRES NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SUPERBLEND NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/NEK. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT A LARGE DAILY DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS FROM U30S SLK/NEK TO M40S TO M50S CPV/SLV FOR LOWS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. GIVEN LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS...EXPECT COLDEST TEMPS IN THE DEEPER PROTECTED MTNS VALLEYS...WITH A SHARP INVERSION SUPPORTING MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELT OF WARMER TEMPS. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLW ASSOCIATED WITH 85H JET OF 35 TO 45 KNTS WL HELP ADVECT DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/W TROF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH POTENT 5H VORT AND WEAK SFC WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACRS OUR REGION. STILL THINKING ACTUAL BOUNDARY WL BE DELAYED BY 4 TO 8 HRS...BASED ON BLOCKING UPSTREAM PATTERN AND SYSTEM PARALLELING MID/UPPER LVL FLW ALOFT...BUT NO INDICATIONS YET IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EITHER WAY EXPECTING A VERY MILD NIGHT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING...HAVE GONE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE ACRS THE CPV/SLV. IN ADDITION...HAVE MENTION CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND IF LATEST TRENDS CONT AND SUPPORT THE SAME TIMING...THESE WL NEED TO BE INCREASED TO LIKELY. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SLK WL LIFT BY 13Z AND BTWN 14Z AND 15Z AT MPV. WATCHING CLOSELY A THICK FOG BANK JUST NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT BTV WITH SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IMPACTING PARTS OF THE RUNWAY...THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED VCFG TO COVER THIS...ALONG WITH A TEMPO FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PBG THRU 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH PRES AND A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY. THINKING IFR/LIFR DEVELOPS AT SLK/MPV BTWN 02-04Z THIS EVENING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...SOME MVFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG/MSS/BTV OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH SOME MORNING FOG LIKELY AT SLK/MPV THRU 14Z. A SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN WIND FIELDS AND SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WL DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG ON TUES MORNING. HIGH PRES REBUILDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES FOR MIDWEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND DAILY MORNING FOG LIKELY AT SLK/MPV. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 420 PM EDT SATURDAY... SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 28TH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 28TH ARE LISTED BELOW. BURLINGTON VT (BTV)..........82 (1927) MASSENA NY (MSS).............85 (1959) MONTPELIER VT (MPV)..........80 (1959) ST. JOHNSBURY VT (SJBV1).... 83 (1908) MOUNT MANSFIELD VT (MMNV1)...72 (1959) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER CLIMATE...BTV

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