Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160541 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY... TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1254 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS. BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST. UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY. UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID- AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...NEILES HYDROLOGY...JMG

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