Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 130956 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 556 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated to scattered showers are expected across the far northern tiers of New York and Vermont through mid morning with drier air working into the region this afternoon. High pressure responsible for the drier air will continue to influence our weather tonight and Monday with dry weather continuing. High temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday...but rebound back to normal temperatures for this time of year on Monday. Overall much of next week will remain on the dry side.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 556 AM EDT Sunday...Upper trough is moving quickly across southern Quebec Province early this morning and is enhancing scattered showers across southern Quebec the northern tiers of New York and Vermont. This activity will continue moving eastward through the early morning hours and with upper trough being fairly progressive...the showers will be ending by mid- morning across northern New York and by midday across northern Vermont. The rest of the area will remain dry today. There was fog over north central and northeast Vermont early this morning...but as mixing takes places the areal coverage is eroding and most will be going just after sunrise. Highs will generally be in the 70s today with better chances for sun during the afternoon hours. High pressure builds in tonight and persist over the area on Monday. No precipitation is expected in either of these periods. Flow aloft turns back to the southwest on Monday and we get right back into a warm air advection pattern...which will result in high temperatures generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...Overall little change from previous forecast thinking for the period with high pressure largely dominating at the surface while a closed upper level low over James Bay Monday night slowly tracks southeastward to the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Wednesday morning. Still looks like a decent chance for scattered showers Tuesday afternoon, mainly east of the Green Mountains as weak shortwave energy on the southern periphery of the upper low tracks through the region. Instability is meager so think the thunder threat is rather low and not worth mentioning. Any afternoon and early evening showers should dissipate going into Tuesday night as a cooler and drier northwest flow develops. Temps will be seasonal with lows mainly in the 50s and highs upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...Dry conditions prevail for Wednesday and Wednesday night as the aforementioned upper low shifts offshore into the Canadian maritimes and an upper ridge builds over the eastern Great Lakes. For Thursday onward trends amongst medium/long range guidance over the past 2 days has been towards more unsettled conditions with a focus for a more widespread rainfall Thursday night into Friday. Upper ridge to our west Thursday morning breaks down into westerly flow as another upper trough/low begins to carve out over the northern plains and Canadian prairies Thursday afternoon/evening. Developing surface low pressure over the Great Lakes will look to push a warm front into the northeast Thursday night with the potential for moderate rainfall through Friday. Questionable forecast for Saturday as rain chances will largely hinge on where the upper low is located, which models don`t really agree on at this point. Will carry a chance for now. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through much of the period. There may be some fog at KMPV through 12z which would result in IFR to LIFR conditions at times. A few showers may move across the far northern tiers of New York and Vermont this morning...but should not have any impact on visibilities. Winds early this morning will become more west with time and eventually northwest this afternoon...but speeds will generally be 10 knots or less. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson

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