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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 142020
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 418 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEYOND ABOUT 6PM...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN
ADDITION...DRIER AIR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...AND THUS EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS TO ABATE. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED
SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL FOG IS GOOD BET
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FEEL DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED FOG AREAS ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS WHERE IT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MAYBE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOCALLY 50S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 418 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. HI-RES MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES POPS ALONG THE INTL BORDER...BUT THE AREA WILL
LARGELY REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR SATURDAY COMPARED
TO FRIDAY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WE TRANSITION TO A FAST ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY MID-DAY THROUGH EVENING. STILL HAVE SOME
RESERVATIONS ABOUT THIS SINCE SOME OF THIS ENERGY SEEMS TO
DEVELOP SPURIOUSLY OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...BUT HARD TO
IGNORE THE TRENDS SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SO MUCH FOR A DRY FATHER`S DAY...JUST GET OUT EARLY TO
ENJOY IT! SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MINOR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...THOUGH SKIES LIKELY
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 418 PM EDT FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN DECENT
OVERALL CONSISTENCY DURING NEXT WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE GENERAL
IDEA OF BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AND
THE NORTHEAST AS A WHOLE. PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A FAIRLY
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
NORTH ON MONDAY AND DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
TUESDAY. THUS HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/SCT THUNDER WILL BE
FOCUSED DURING THIS PERIOD WHEN BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT ARE PRESENT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BRIDGE UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH LARGE-SCALE
DRYING AND MAINLY CLR/SUNNY SKIES. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOME
EVIDENCE THAT ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY ATTEMPT TO
REINVIGORATE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RENEWED
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEING THIS FAR OUT (DAY 7)...CAPPED
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THESE TIME
RANGES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE 40S AND 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
PASSAGE OF WEAK AND MAINLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
15-20 KTS THROUGH 00Z EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE KSLK/KPBG/KRUT TERMINALS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SCT/BKN CIGS FROM FL050-090. OTW DRY WX
EXPECTED. AFTER 00Z LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. WIDESPREAD BR/FG NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH MORE LIKELY AT
KSLK...AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG...ESP IF THESE TERMINALS RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...SKC WITH
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND MORE GUSTY
AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
IN SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
PATCHY BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESP AT KSLK/KMPV.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG AND ASSOCIATED IFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG