Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280153 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 953 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT WARM IT WILL TURN MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY CLIMBING ABOVE 60 IN MANY SPOTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW YORK AND VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 948 PM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS THE REGION AND EARLIER DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES EASTWARD. EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT...BUT A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND ARE NOW EXPECTED TO LEVEL OUT OR GRADUALLY RISE LATE AS CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. STILL CHANCE FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH. SHOWALTERS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. WITH SUCH LOW POPS THOUGH...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON... 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...BUT A BIT COOLER EASTERN VERMONT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A COUPLE OF 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH CHANNELED SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RAMP UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING TO EAST OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...AS BEST DYNAMICS TRACK UP TO WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH VERMONT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...PUSH INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NY...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND WESTWARD WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERN GREENS...BUT SHOULDN`T REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY... EXTENDED PERIOD PICKS UP WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. DEPARTING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY FRONT LEAVES THE REGION IN MORE OR LESS WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB AND NW POST FRONTAL FLOW AT THE SURFACE. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI INTO OHIO VALLEYS. UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST SHARPENS UP IN THE EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS INCREASE WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCE MAINLY IN NORTHERN NY. AT ONSET OF PRECIP COLDER AIR ALOFT IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD PRODUCE SNOW WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. AS FRIDAY GOES ON HOWEVER WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM THE COLUMN PRODUCING ALL RAIN. LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT DROPS TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TO PRODUCE SNOW. POPS UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TIMING OF COLDER AIR ARRIVAL INTO THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...SO TRICK OR TREATING WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN THE RAIN THAN SNOW. UPPER LOW LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT BY 12 HRS OR SO...CONTINUING PRECIP INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY & MONDAY TEMPS...NEAR SEASONAL THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A SHOT OF WINTER AFTER THE COLD FRONT AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL GENERALLY START OUT CLEAR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 4000 TO 8000 FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WEDNESDAY-18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 18Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR CIGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. 00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...AREAS MVFR IN RAINSHOWERS LOW ELEVATION AND SNOWSHOWERS HIGHER ELEVATION WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM & COLD FRONT. GREATEST THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION AFT 12Z SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...EVENSON/HANSON

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