Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310808 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 408 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY..500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BUT INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL REINFORCE DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS TROUGH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...AT 10-15 KTS. OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST OTHER AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...QUIET TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORABLE VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KSLK/KMPV WITH IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY FROM 08-12Z. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WITH SW-W WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUE-00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...RJS

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