Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 131917 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 217 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Deep low pressure will pull away into eastern Canada today into tonight with widespread light snows and snow showers tapering off. Cold and blustery weather is expected into Thursday before winds abate. Thereafter a slow moderation in temperatures is expected into next weekend with a few snow showers expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1246 PM EST Wednesday...Winter headlines have been cancelled as prevailing snow has diminished across most of the area outside the higher elevations of northern Vermont where a few more inches of snow is likely through the remainder of the daylight hours. Final snowfall totals ranged from 4-9" across northern New York, to a general 6-12" across Vermont with a few isolated higher amounts in the southeast upslope prone locations across the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. Highest amount recorded in the BTV CWA was in the Killington area at 19", with 7.2" locally here at KBTV, and the highest amount in Chittenden County being 8.4" in Underhill (not Milton). By tonight into Thursday sensible weather conditions gradually trend quieter, though we`ll remain under deep cyclonic flow and a modest pressure gradient so winds will only abate slowly. A weak secondary clipper low will pass to our south tonight into Thursday morning and have little impact on area weather. Skies trend partly cloudy tonight, then partly to mostly sunny on Thursday. Lows tonight to mainly range in the +/- single digits with wind chills falling into the negative single digits and teens so bundle up. High on Thursday generally in the 9 to 18 above range with customary variation. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM EST Wednesday...Digging shortwave in broad cyclonic flow will back flow for favorable SW flow and potential lake effect banding moving northward into St. Lawrence by Friday aftn into Friday night ahead of surface clipper/front which after passage early Saturday morning the band will retreat south again. The flow indictaes longest duration parallel or west of Route 11 then slipping quickly SE-S as clipper and front push through. Our thinking matches closely with WFO BUF and thinking several inches along-South of Route 3 in Adirondacks with perhaps 3-6+ locally along and West of Route 11 in SW St. Lawrence county. However...upper shortwave and surface clipper along with moisture fetch from Lake effect banding will bring about light snow/snow showers late Friday night - early Saturday especially for northern NY and mountains of VT. Snow squalls a good possibility along the frontal boundary Sat morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EST Wednesday.... Surface clipper and shortwave moves through NY/VT Saturday morning with some enhanced upslope flow snows dissipating during the afternoon. Widespread dusting to less than inch but several inches possible along western slopes/mountains and an inch-2 in NE VT hilly terrain. Quiet Sat ngt-Sunday with slight ridging at all levels then backing return flow will bring about some warm air advection precipitation Sunday night-Monday. ECMWF and Canadian are in agreement with a more amplified robust system, still yielding light pcpn whereas GFS is outlier with continued ridging and nothing. WPC similar to ECMWF/Canadian thus following these solutions. Differences continue Monday night-Tuesday as well but at least have similar thinking of a northern stream shortwave and weak front moving across in the Tuesday timeframe with perhaps coastal development after passing our area although GFS sooner/closer with coastal development and will back off on this solution for now. Temperatures near freezing with sub-freezing surface layer may mean some freezing rain as part of the light wintry mix for Monday- Tuesday. Temperatures gradually moderating throughout the period with above freezing highs in the Monday-Tuesday period and slightly cooler Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Overall looking at improving conditions this afternoon from MVFR to VFR as skies slowly clear out. Winds will remain an issue gusting from the west at 20-30kts producing areas of blowing and drifting snow. So far, restrictions to vsby have been localized to KMPV and KSLK in the MVFR to IFR category, and expect this to continue through 00Z. After 00Z winds begin to abate to 5-10 knots and skies briefly clear. After 06Z a disturbance passing south will bring an increase of mid/high clouds from south to north through 12-14Z, before skies trend back to SKC for the remainder of Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Isolated SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Lahiff SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Lahiff

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