Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151627 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1227 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVER THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES AND PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1227 PM EDT TUESDAY...DROPPED WIND ADVSY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR AS STEADIER RAINFALL HAS ARRIVED IN THE VALLEY AND INHIBITED MIXING MORE THOROUGHLY. KCXX VWP VALUES STILL RUNNING FROM 50-60KTS IN THE 2-3 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN ALOFT. WATCHING COLD FRONT MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS HOUR...AND REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE 1-2 0`CLOCK HOUR...AND THEN EASTWARD INTO REMAINDER OF VT THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING CONVECTIVE FINELINE ADVANCING NORTHEAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH IS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT ENTERS OUR WESTERN VT COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA AND MONITOR FUTURE STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION... QUITE BUSY HERE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD. IN SHORT...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS NEEDED AS OF MID-MORNING...MAINLY TO MATCH CURRENT POSITION OF MOVEMENT OF STRONG POLAR FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. AS ANTICIPATED...TEMP DROPS UP TO 20F IN ONE HOUR BEHIND FROPA AS READINGS CRASH QUICKLY INTO THE 40S. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING IN THE SLV WHERE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. MUCH MILDER IN THE 60S FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO VERMONT...BUT TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR IN THESE AREAS AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH IN NRN NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT WITH THIS EVENT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING (SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING DRY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CREATE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS AROUND 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1014 AM EDT TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. BASIN AVG QPF RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH IN NRN NY...AND 1-1.5 INCHES IN VT BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT EXPECTED. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO YESTERDAYS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL KEEP...OR PUSH MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES MODERATE FLOOD BY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES HYDROLOGY...JMG

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