Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281458 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1058 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH AND EASTERN EASTERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL END BY TONIGHT WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD DRY AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1055 AM EDT SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW HAD MADE IT AS FAR NW AS KVSF AS SATELLITE SHOWS TOPS COOLING SLIGHTLY IN DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF AS UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF KBUF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STILL TRICKY ON WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL END UP AND USED A BLEND OF SIMULATED MODEL REFLECTIVITIES TO HELP DEFINE THE POP AND ACCUMULATING SNOW AREAS. THIS IS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT WHERE A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPIN AND PERHAPS THE ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUD EXCEPT CLEARING IN THE ST. LAW VALLEY. A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 32 AT KVSF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND BE GONE LATE SATURDAY EARLY SUNDAY GIVING WAY TO COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TOMORROW THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS BEFORE WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEGINNING A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MOVING TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECT THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW WITH OVERCAST SKIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY... PROGRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING EWD ACROSS MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY DRIVE SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE CARRIED 30-50 POPS ACROSS THE HIR TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING DURING TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR THE END OF MARCH...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND DEVELOPING MID- LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD. PROSPECTS FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S ON TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD SEE A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF STRONG P-GRADIENT. WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO +3 TO +5C ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...AND MID-UPR 40S EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH PROSPECTS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STILL REACH THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT MAY SEE THAT HAPPEN BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CAA LATER IN THE DAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT RUT AND MPV. BEST CHANCE OF -SHSN APPEARS TO BE AT KRUT 15-02Z...WHERE WE/VE CARRIED VCSH. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/VFR OVC CONDITIONS...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SKC OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH AROUND 10-12 KTS THROUGH 14Z...THEN GUSTING 16-20KTS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLK/MPV)...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

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