Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141748 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 148 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will remain north and west of the area today. A few showers will be possible over the far northern portions of New York and Vermont as a result with cloudy skies elsewhere. Above normal temperatures are expected with highs in the 60s. The front will sag south tonight and increase precipitation chances over most of the area...but then lift northward on Sunday allowing for breezy and warm conditions to develop with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Eventually a line of showers and possible thunderstorms will move across northern New York Sunday afternoon and during the evening hours across Vermont. Wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range will be possible Sunday afternoon and night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 148 PM EDT Saturday...Some minor tweaks to the forecast for this afternoon as skies remain clear over east central and southeast Vermont and precipitation chances look rather low as forcing remains weak and main boundary still well west and northwest of the area. Have tweaked grids to go with drier conditions for this afternoon and a bit more sunshine southeast. Otherwise rest of forecast remains in good shape. Previous Discussion... Frontal boundary moves closer towards the region today. Clouds will continue to increase ahead of the southwesterly flow along with some isolated shower activity mainly across the northern and western portions of the CWA through the late morning. The front will finally sag into the northern half of the North Country Saturday evening, bringing with it another round of more widespread showers. Early morning Sunday, the front will wave back to the north and activity will move back north of the international border before dawn. High temperatures for today will be just above normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s with some valley locations seeing up to 70. Overnight lows will be again mild with lows in the 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Deep-layer ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain strong S-SW gradient flow across the North Country on Sunday, in advance of frontal system crossing the Great Lakes. Bulk of the daylight hrs will be breezy and seasonably warm. 850mb temperatures reaching +13 to +14C should yield valley high temperatures in the mid-upr 70s. Record highs are generally in the low 80s for October 15th, so will be close. It appears a pre-frontal trough will cross nrn NY 21-00Z, and then move across VT 00-03Z Monday, with cold front and onset of stronger low-level CAA crossing from west to east a few hours later. Minimal CAPE, but strong deep-layer forcing may yield a reflectivity fine line as depicted by the 00Z BTV-4kmWRF and 00Z NAM-Nest. Included a slight chance of thunder 21-03Z across St. Lawrence and Franklin counties. Absence of CAPE should preclude lightning threat further east. Most areas should see shower activity, and included max PoPs of 70-80 percent Sunday evening. Gradient flow will create widespread breezy conditions Sunday, generally 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Gusts may reach 40 mph across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys with channeled flow. Will also need to watch evolution of any convection late in the day. Swly flow 50-60kts about 2kft AGL could mix down with possible wind damage if convective line becomes organized. Have made mention of the expected gusty winds in the HWO, and will continue to monitor. Flow turns westerly Sunday night with FROPA, generally 10-20 mph with a few gusts to 30 mph continuing with steep low-level lapse rates in low-level CAA regime. Will see more seasonable air mass moving into the North Country. Lows will generally be in the 40s, with a few upper 30s possible across the nrn Adirondacks. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Friday...It continues to appear that most of the long-term period will be tranquil. High pressure will be in control across the ern third of the CONUS during the work week. Will see valley highs in the 50s MON-TUE, moderating into the mid-upr 60s WED-FRI. Will need to watch for possible frost Monday night in the Champlain Valley before the warming trend commences. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...Overall looking at MVFR/VFR ceilings for much of the period. Best chance for any precipitation will be tonight near the Canadian border and KMSS may see some MVFR visibilities...otherwise looking at VFR visibilities over the remainder of the area. The precipitation will lift north of the border after 10z and most areas will experience VFR conditions as region will be in the warm section. After 14z watch for gusty south to southwest winds developing...generally in the 15 to 25 knot range. Strongest winds will occur after 18z and through 06z...which is beyond this forecast period. Outlook... Sunday Night: MVFR/VFR. Windy with gusts 35 to 45 knots across northern New York and 30 to 40 knots in Vermont. Chance SHRA. Monday: MVFR/VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Evenson/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Evenson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.