Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271731 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 131 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY...PROVIDING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...STILL A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA...BUT COVERAGE HAS DECREASED A BIT OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO CONTINUE AS AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALLOWS FOR RISE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN...WITH SKIES TRENDING SUNNIER LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS...WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE BEHIND TODAYS MAIN TROUGHINESS MAY KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING TONIGHT, BUT LOOKS TO EXIT SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAWN. GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW 925MB TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE OPTED FOR GENERALLY DRY SCENARIO AS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MAY DELAY PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH. SO EXPECT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 433 AM EDT THURSDAY...WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN TO RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF HINTING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE STAYED WITH SUPERBLEND POPS AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF MODEL HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW/UPPER ROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT KEEP THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HINTS AT SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A WEAKER UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF MODEL DOES BUILD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT A FEW SITES. SCT-BKN VFR DECK JUST ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN TOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, SETTING UP IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED LOCATIONS OF KMSS/KSLK/KMPV FROM 05-14Z. THEREAFTER, FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL RULE FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI - 18Z SAT...VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. 18Z SAT - 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON - 00Z WED...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...LAHIFF

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