Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181134 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 734 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure moves through the region before giving way to a weak system will pass to our south on Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures slowly climb back toward normal over the rest of the weekend into early next week before a mid week trough brings another round of well below normal temps for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 724 AM EDT Saturday...No significant changes to the forecast, just some minor adjustments to the temperatures and dew points. Other than that, the forecast is in good shape. Previous Discussion...Mostly clear skies continue across area as surface high pressure remains over the North Country. After a cold start this morning, temperatures begin to rebound today as light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover will lead to the warmest temps in the past week with highs in the mid to upper 30`s across the region. Nearly bringing us back towards seasonal normals. Clipper low pressure system looks to swing just to our South on Saturday and Saturday night. Models continue to support the idea of just a slight chance of pops across southern zones with just a potential dusting of snow Saturday night. Overnight lows will be slightly below seasonal norms in the southern counties as cloud cover should keep lows in the 20`s while up North temps will be in the low teens but could easily drop into the single digits.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 406 AM EDT Saturday...Generally quiet/dry weather conditions through the short-term period. The 00z NWP model suite has a good consensus on deepening surface low pressure well south and east of New England during the day Sunday. This will induce a dry, deep-layer northerly flow across nrn NY and VT, with sfc high pressure eventually cresting over the North Country Sunday Night into Monday. Anticipating mostly sunny conditions on Sunday. With 850mb temperatures in the -6 to -7C range, should see high temperatures generally 34-38F range. Good radiational cooling expected Sunday night, with lows generally in the teens. May see some upper single digits in the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. For Monday, may see some advancing mid-upr level clouds from west to east during the afternoon. Otherwise, weak sfc ridge axis remains in place, and should see high temperatures moderate into the upr 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 406 AM EDT Saturday...While no major storm systems are expected through the extended period, will see large temperature changes associated with amplified mid-upr level flow pattern across the ern third of the CONUS and sern Canada. Polar vortex shifts sewd from Hudson Bay across central Quebec during Tuesday/Tuesday night. This evolution will be associated with an arctic frontal passage across our region during the daylight hrs Tuesday, with the potential for rain/snow showers. Early highs on Tuesday will reach 35-40F in most locations, but anticipate falling temps following frontal passage. By 12Z Wednesday, 00Z GFS indicates 850mb temps of -22C to -24C. The strong low-level CAA will result in overnight lows Tuesday night in the single digits to lower teens, with daytime highs on Wednesday only in the upper teens to lower 20s in most areas. May see continued snow showers/flurries during the day Wednesday associated with nwly flow and steep low-level lapse rates. Wednesday night into Thursday, will begin to see a moderating trend as sfc anticyclone builds ewd from the Great Lakes and crests over NY/New England later Thursday. Temps moderate into the mid-upr 20s by Thursday afternoon. South to SW return flow develops Thursday night into Friday as sfc high pressure is expected to drift east of New England. Should see building mid-upr level heights, with a low- level warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley region. This will allow for increasing clouds and the development of (mainly) rain showers by Friday aftn/Friday night with increased isentropic ascent. The 00Z GFS suggests we will emerge into the warm sector Saturday with 850mb temps +6 to +8C as warm front lifts into Quebec. The 00z ECMWF, on the other hand, stalls the E-W frontal zone across our region with a potentially unsettled day on Saturday. Leaned toward the more run-to-run consistent GFS at this time, with highs approaching 50F for Saturday, but will need to monitor given larger model differences toward next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...VFR through the forecast period at all terminals with mainly clear skies. The one exception is some mid-level ceilings over KSLK/KRUT for a few hours after 00Z as the clipper low passes to the south of the CWA. Winds will be light and variable overnight before becoming southeasterly at 05-10 knots for most locations after 14Z with KMSS being the exception, seeing northeasterly winds at 05-10 knots instead. 12Z Sunday through Wednesday... 12Z Sunday - 00Z Tuesday...VFR/high pressure overall. 00Z Tuesday - 00Z Wednesday...Possible MVFR ceilings as short wave trough passes through the region. 00Z Wednesday - Onwards...VFR/high pressure overall.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MV NEAR TERM...MV SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...MV

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