Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210900 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 400 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build eastward across the North Country tonight bringing mostly clear skies, diminishing winds, and chilly temperatures. Morning lows early Tuesday will be in the single digits to mid teens across the region. A weak mid-level disturbance approaching from the west will bring increasing cloudiness and developing south winds on Tuesday, with light precipitation Tuesday night. Precipitation will fall mainly as light rain. However, pockets of light freezing rain are possible east of the Green Mountains, and may result in a few icy spots. Well above average temperatures are expected through the remainder of the week, with a strong area of low pressure passing to our west expected to bring widespread rainfall Friday night through Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1035 PM EST Monday...Only minor noise-level adjustments to hourly temperature/dewpoint trends into the overnight and morning hours were needed as of 1030 pm with current forecast in excellent shape. Clear skies and light winds for the majority of the night will allow for decent radiative cooling as high pressure bridges overhead. Current forecast minimum temperatures from 10 to 18F in the valleys and positive/negative single digits for the northern mountains still look on track. Increasing/thickening high cloudiness will begin to advect atop western counties toward daybreak but will arrive late enough to have negligible affect on temperatures. Have a great night. Prior discussion... For Tuesday, a shortwave ridge crests across the area with sfc ridge shifting to our east into the Gulf of Maine by afternoon. This will induce a southerly gradient flow with surface winds increasing to 10-20 mph, with gusts to 25mph during the afternoon hours (especially with channeled flow in the Champlain Valley). The 12Z NAM RH profiles suggest increasing mid-upper level clouds by 18Z from west to east ahead of next shortwave trough across the Great Lakes. Despite increasing clouds, should see warmer temps with highs in the upr 30s to lwr 40s. Mid-level height falls and trough axis shift thru quickly during Tuesday night. Low-levels remain relatively dry, and overall it appears that approaching precipitation will undergo a dissipating trend as the trough axis moves thru Tuesday night. Maintained Likely PoPs during the overnight period, but QPF values only 0.05-0.10" for most locations, and period of precipitation will likely only span 2-3 hrs in most spots. Vertical temperature profiles with continued south winds support mainly rain with lows in the mid 30s. That said, should see pockets of temps near freezing as the precipitation moves thru in spots east of the Green Mtns, and have gone with a light ZR/R for the ern half of VT. A few hundreths of an inch of freezing rain is possible, and introduced mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook as a few icy spots are possibly for travelers overnight Tuesday night. We will continue to monitor. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 358 AM EST Tuesday...Thursday will see another low pressure system from the Great Lakes region pass to the north of the CWA. Light showers, mainly in the northern half of the forecast area, are expected with the system passes north of the border and into northern Maine. QPF is minimal with this system with the Adirondacks seeing a couple tenths of an inch, the Northern Vermont counties seeing around a tenth and the rest of the state seeing only a few hundreths of an inch. Southerly flow will continue to boost temps well above seasonal norms for Thursday with highs in the 50`s for the majority of the area and overnight lows in the mid to upper 30`s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 358 AM EST Tuesday...Friday sees low pressure tracking north and west of our region from the Great Lakes Friday through early Sunday morning. Models are in general agreement of a warm front lifting through the region Friday afternoon/evening with precipitation ramping up through the day Saturday with the peak Saturday afternoon/evening just ahead of the passage of a cold front. Winds out ahead of the front could lead to gusty conditions and potential advisory level winds especially across the Champlain Valley as the 00Z GFS indicates 850mb winds to reach 65 knots Saturday afternoon. After frontal passage, rain will switch over to snow showers Saturday night with the strong cold air advection. Very warm temperatures are expected Saturday ahead of the cold frontal passage. Temperatures overall look to be in the 50s with the Champlain Valley pushing a record breaking 60. A sharp cold front will drop temps quickly back into the 20s Saturday night. Possible flash freeze issues are possible with temperatures dropping so sharply after a moderate rainfall. Moving into next week, more seasonable weather will return for Sunday through Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 06z Wednesday...High pressure across area bringing mostly clear skies and VFR conditions to the region through overnight period. Will see increasing clouds above 15kft after 12Z Tuesday as high clouds advance from W-E ahead of the next trough across the Great Lakes. Precipitation arrives in St. Lawrence Valley near 00z Wed and eventually sweeps east. Activity is light with showery rain or freezing rain in eastern VT with MVFR cigs due to pcpn. Light and variable winds overnight but as high pressure system shifts to the east, will see winds developing from the south toward daybreak Tuesday, increasing to 10-12kts with gusts to 20kts at BTV by 18z Tuesday. Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday... A weak trough will bring periods of light rain, with pockets of freezing rain east of the Green Mtns during Tuesday night. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with this system, mainly during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Generally returning VFR with high pressure Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. Warm front approaches from the southwest Friday afternoon with increasing chances for rain and periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Will also see possible sfc wind gusts locally in excess of 25kts with low-level turbulence and wind shear late Friday through Saturday as deep low pressure passes to our west across the Great Lakes and Ontario. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG SHORT TERM...MV LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...Banacos/SLW

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