Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 032014 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 314 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TOWARD SUNRISE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A TURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA...SO ONSET OF SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE STEADIER SNOW ARRIVES. GOING FORECAST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY LOOKS REAL GOOD DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS REAL GOOD. THERMAL PROFILE DOES UNDERGO SOME CHANGE WITH THE WARM NOSE MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT BY THE TIME THE AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE BRIEF...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TAPERED OFF. SO LOOKING AT A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING. NEITHER OF THESE HOWEVER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY ICING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT JUST ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT WARMER SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET IN...BEGINNING THE WARMING TREND. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL WARM TO THE LOW 30`S ACROSS THE AREA. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE HIGH AND DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST THE EXTENDED CURRENTLY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30`S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z BEFORE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD TO THE NORTH IMPACTING MSS/SLK/RUT THE EARLIEST. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STEADY SNOW MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z- 05Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 05Z AS SNOW TAPERS OFF. SLK COULD SEE SOME FZDZ AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN ALOFT AFTER 10Z. WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SOUTHERLY 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. A LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE SOME LLWS AS 35-40KT JET WILL BLOW AROUND 2,000FT. ANY BREAKS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR/MODERATE IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE SNOW AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES. 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ003- 004-006>008-016>019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026- 027-029-030-034-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL/KGM

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