Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 202352 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 752 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure continues to build into the region overnight for another dry night with clear skies. Lows will be in the 40s to around 50...but in the 30s over the northern Adirondacks with some patchy frost. Clouds will be on the increase Saturday...but highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Eventually the threat for showers will increase later in the day Saturday and Saturday night...but the highest threat will be on Sunday as an upper level trough of low pressure passes across the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 752 PM EDT Friday...current forecast in good shape. Cumulus clouds have dissipated, but satellite loop showing some high thin cirrus clouds approaching the region from the Great Lakes and the Ohio valley. Still expecting mainly clear skies overnight. Previous discussion from 330 PM EDT Friday...Shallow cumulus formed over the mountains today...but already seeing a decrease in areal coverage as ridging and warming aloft is limiting instability and deeper vertical development. Expect these clouds to dissipate around sunset. High level layer of smoke has also been thinning and should have no impact on sky cover tonight. Light winds and the clear skies will lead to low temperatures in the 40s to around 50...but some mid 30s in the northern Adirondacks of New York along with patch frost. On Saturday look for high temperatures once again in the upper 60s to mid 70s...but with increasing high level clouds from the southwest during the afternoon. There could even be a few showers later in the day as this moisture is associated with an upper level trough of low pressure..
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday...The upper level trough of low pressure mentioned in the near term will move slowly eastward from the Ohio Valley Saturday night and eventually phase a bit with another upper trough of low pressure coming down from Canada. This will help increase chances for showers over the area Saturday night and especially on Sunday before the upper trough moves far enough south and east to decrease precipitation chances Sunday night from northwest to southeast. A this time it looks like the eastern half of Vermont will have the best chance for precipitation and the best thunder potential will be across the Saint Lawrence Valley of New York on Sunday where better instability will exist. With clouds and precipitation on Sunday...highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 424 PM EDT Friday...Consistency is the name of the game for the extended portion of the forecast with models still indicating an upper level trough and closed low off the Mid Atlantic coast developing on Monday. The low will slowly drift northward from Monday through early Wednesday and will have chance of showers for our area through the period. On Wednesday this feature will finally push Northeastward and away from our area. Another low moves North of our region Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a front across our area with more showers for Thursday. Strong Southwesterly flow develops during the second half of the week and will push temperatures even further above seasonal normals. Maximum temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s through the entire work week. Have also added in mention of thunder for Tue through Fri during the afternoon hours each day with some weak instability developing with warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected through the period. Some high level smoke from wildfires in western Canada will exist across the area...but should not have an impact on aviation. Winds will light and variable for most of the period before turning southwesterly at 05-10 knots. mid level ceilings will develop across southern TAF sites very late in the period but should have no significant impacts on aviation. Outlook 00Z Sunday through Wednesday... 00z Sun - 06z Mon: VFR with periods of MVFR possible in rain showers. 06z Mon - 12z Tue: VFR under high pressure 12z Tue onward: VFR with chance MVFR with coastal low pressure system affecting the North Country. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/WGH SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Neiles/MV

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