Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 142052 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 352 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure will move off the New England coast overnight. An upper trough will move southeast from Canada overnight and will bring a slight chance of snow showers to the Adirondacks and Green Mountains after midnight and early Sunday morning. Another ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes on Sunday and will remain over the north country through midday on Tuesday. A low pressure area will move northeast into the Great Lakes later Tuesday, and will bring mixed precipitation to the north country late Tuesday through Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 352 PM EST Saturday...Mid level clouds have moved into the region this afternoon. Expecting cloudy skies tonight, as an upper shortwave moves southeast from Canada overnight. Have gone with slight chance pops for snow showers after midnight tonight across the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains. MOS guidance, especially the GFS MOS, is too cold for min temperatures tonight, given cloud cover. Have leaned toward the warmer GFS LAMP guidance for min temperatures tonight. Expecting some snow showers to continue into Sunday morning, especially across the north Green Mountains. Expecting skies to clear out during Sunday afternoon, as a ridge of high pressure builds east from the Great lakes.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 352 PM EST Saturday...Large area of surface high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the period. Temperatures will be above seasonal normals, much like the rest of this season has trended. Weather will be dry. Sunday night will be the coolest with ideal radiational cooling conditions.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 352 PM EST Saturday...Most active weather period will begin late in the day Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Then we`ll have some lingering upslope snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry weather returns from Thursday night through the end of the week. The entire week will feature temperatures well above the seasonal normals. On Tuesday North country will be under strong warm air advection as low pressure system lifts Northward through the central Great Lakes. As precipitation begins across the area after about 21z, some cold air remains trapped East of the Green mountains and mixed precipitation is expected. Will see a period of sleet and/or freezing rain east of the Greens and in the Adirondacks overnight. By 12z Wednesday precipitation should change over to all rain. Sometime Wednesday afternoon models are indicating a secondary low developing off the New England coast. This will pull some colder air back into the region and will see a change over to rain/snow mix. Still looks like we could see a decent accumulation across the higher summits with strong northwesterly low and mid level flow developing. Mid/upper level ridging returns from Wednesday night through the end of the week, temperatures will be unseasonably warm with dry weather.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/... Through 18Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. An upper shortwave trough will move southeast from Canada tonight, with a slight chance of snow showers possible, mainly over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. 18z Sunday onward...Primarily VFR with surface high pressure through 18Z Tuesday. Next large-scale precipitation system tracks to our west Late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Trending MVFR with intervals of IFR in mainly rain, possibly as early as late Tuesday...but more likely Tuesday night or Wednesday. Thursday...mainly becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...WGH

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