Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220730 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2. GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE THROUGH THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY. CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE 40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. 12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. 06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. 00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO

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