Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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531 FXUS61 KBTV 271406 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1006 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low clouds and patchy fog across Vermont this morning will give away to increasing clouds by this afternoon with a few showers possible over northern New York. Additional showers with a few rumbles of thunder are possible overnight as a warm front lifts across our region. For Saturday scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with some thunderstorms capable of producing localized very heavy rainfall. Drier and warmer weather returns for Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1004 AM EDT Friday...The current forecast remains in good shape, with only a few minor adjustments made to temperatures and cloud cover to reflect the latest observations. Previous discussion: Latest trends have been for warm front to lift north of our cwa on Saturday, placing our region in the warm sector and shifting the heaviest qpf axis a little further north. WPC has lowered the excessive rainfall risk from SLGHT to MRGL acrs our fa for late tonight into Sat, given recent trends. However, still plenty of ingredients available for localized heavy rainfall on Saturday associated with a cold frnt, which could produce a localized/isolated flash flood threat acrs our mountainous trrn. Sfc analysis places 1026mb high pres south of Hudson Bay, which has helped to drive drier/cooler air south with some patchy fog acrs VT early this morning. Meanwhile, low pres is located over n-central Iowa with warm frnt extending eastward acrs the Ohio Valley and trailing cold frnt over the central MS Valley. As sfc low pres tracks acrs the western Great Lakes into central Canada a warm frnt and associated moisture wl lift acrs our region late today into tonight. The timing of moisture/lift has been delayed, which should result in a mostly rain free Friday. Also, boundary is now expected to lift north of our cwa by late Sat morning, which places best convergence and gradient for heaviest precip north of our cwa, as we become established in the warm sector. Deep moisture with pw values surging btwn 1.50 to 1.75" develops acrs northern NY by late today and spreads into VT overnight. This waa lift and moisture advection, combined with an axis of elevated instability wl produce a band of showers with embedded thunder btwn 21z and 06z this evening. Additional s/w energy is expected to travel near the International Border btwn 09z-15z Saturday, producing additional showers/storms over extreme northern NY/VT on Sat morning. Given low tracking well to our north and west, feel warm frnt and ridging aloft develop to push initial band of moisture north of our cwa by 15z Saturday. However, as cold frnt and s/w energy associated with mid/upper lvl trof approach additional showers/storms are likely on Sat aftn. Given pw values btwn 1.75 and 2.0, warm cloud depths of 11,500 to 12,000 feet and dynamics with approaching trof, localized heavy downpours are likely within the stronger convection. Difficult to pin point exact locations of stronger convection, but given deep moisture profiles localized rainfall rates of 1.0 to 2.0 inches per hour wl be possible, which could cause some very isolated flash flooding, if this was to happen acrs complex trrn. For this reason, WPC has continued with a marginal threat risk for excessive rainfall. As cold frnt sweeps acrs the fa, much drier air develops by 00z and threat for any flooding quickly ends. Highs on Saturday are tricky with clouds/precip in the morning, followed by some clearing with warm sector. Have trended on the warmer side of the NBM with highs mid 70s to lower 80s, but if more sun develops with progged 925mb temps in the 16-19C range, highs could warm well into the 80s. This would create more instability and combined with favorable shear would increase the potential for a few stronger to localized severe storms on Sat. Plenty to monitor with upcoming system.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Building mid-level heights and surface high pressure will build from west to east across the North Country Saturday night which should allow for a quick and abrupt end of rainfall around midnight Saturday night. This is quite a bit quicker compared to previous guidance 24 hours ago but should help continue to mitigate any flood risk as we head into the overnight hours on Saturday. Sunday will be on the dry side as deep layer ridging build overhead. Light winds, sunny skies, and warmer temperatures will be in store on Sunday as we begin to see some modest warm air advection across the region. Quiet weather will continue into the evening hours with decent cooling expected Sunday night under clear skies. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Monday will be the warmest day of the week with many places warming into the mid to upper 80s with some 90 degree temperatures possible in the Champlain, Lower Connecticut, and St. Lawrence Valleys. Dewpoints will only be in the 60s on Monday which won`t be as oppressive as the dewpoints seen in the previous significant and record setting heart. Nonetheless, it`ll be warm on the humid side so plan accordingly if you`ll be outdoors on Monday. The deep layer ridging that will be responsible for this warm up will slide eastward Monday night which will usher in the return for rain chances across the region. There is some uncertainty to how quickly rainfall will return to the region as the GFS has a series of shortwaves moving in as early as the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday while the global consensus keeps rain chances at bay until Tuesday morning. The biggest question for Tuesday is if we will be able to have a break in rainfall/cloud cover to destabilize in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. With the lack of any high res guidance this far out, we have analyzed some ensemble data with guidance suggesting 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE depending on how the morning plays out. Model sounds overall look pretty unimpressive with only modest mid-level lapse rates so we could see a few stronger storms but it seems unlikely to see any severe storms based on the data we are seeing at this time. Following the cold front on Tuesday, we should see a return to seasonal temperatures for the second half of the work week. We will remain under broad cyclonic flow within an upper level trough through Wednesday through at least Friday, if not longer, which will allow for daily rain chances as we have some decent mid-level lapse rates, shortwave energy, and decent heating each afternoon. No significant weather is expected after Tuesday so it should be a pretty nice second half of the week. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...Fog that developed at MPV will dissipate by 13z this morning with VFR conditions prevailing at all taf sites thru 00z this evening. As a warm front approaches light rain showers with embedded heavier downpours will impact MSS btwn 20-24z and spread into SLK/PBG/BTV and EFK btwn 22z and 04z. These showers should lift north of our terminals by midnight, with developing south winds at 10 to 20 knots. Some localized gusts up to 25 knots possible at RUT/BTV. Also, as low level jet increases the potential for areas of wind shear and turbulence increase overnight. CIGS will lower toward MVFR as deeper moisture develops overnight acrs our terminals. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... The threat for excessive rainfall and the potential flash flooding threat has decreased across much of the North Country tonight into Saturday. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday with localized heavy rainfall possible in the stronger storms. Very isolated flash flooding is possible, especially if a mountain basin has several direct hits from thunderstorms on Saturday. Any flood threat quickly ends by sunset on Saturday evening. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Kremer/Taber SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Taber HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV