Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232328 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 728 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 721 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THAT REGION. MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2") THAT OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...NW WINDS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO DISSIPATE MUCH OF THE FOG. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH FROPA AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST- FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

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