Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290814 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 414 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 925/850 MILLIBARS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH PUTS THE WHOLE AREA IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND WITH WARMING ALOFT...CAPPING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH THE MOUNTAINS ACTING AS A SOURCE OF LIFT AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND GOING FORECAST HAS THIS IDEA COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THINKING. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 414 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MIDDAY. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS RATHER SHARP...SO THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A GOOD SOURCE OF LIFT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE 60S. STILL EXPECTING THIS TO RESULT IN CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WHAT CONTINUES TO STAND OUT IS THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD FRONT AND INSTABILITY AXIS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...THINKING STORMS FORM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY WITH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REMAINDER OF VERMONT HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST. NARROW BAND OF STORMS EXITS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND WITH COLD FRONT ALSO EXITING THE AREA...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING IN REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKING RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHEAST IN A PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. FIRST PIECE MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS ENERGY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RAINFALL SHOULD BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE PERIOD STILL LOOK TO BE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A COUPLE STRONGER SHORTWAVES SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND 25,000 FEET DRIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR FG/BR AT KMPV/KSLK/KPBG OVERNIGHT FROM 06-13Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY, GOING CALM AGAIN AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z THU: VFR. 12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE. 00Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG. 12Z SAT - 00Z MON: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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