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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL