Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160722 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 222 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of light to moderate snow will continue overnight with the heaviest snowfall accumulations occurring over northern third of Vermont. The steady snow will taper off to terrain focused snow showers on Thursday with brisk northwest winds. Much quieter weather is anticipated by the end of the week...along with warmer temperatures by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1149 PM EST Wednesday...Going forecast in good shape with only change being the addition of the light qualifier when describing the snow overnight tonight. Otherwise...warnings remain in place for now with upslope induced snow continuing over northwest Vermont and snow from the coastal system working into far northeast Vermont. Interesting corridor of little snow in between these two snow areas across parts of north central and central Vermont where only a couple of inches has fallen. BTV4 does have light snow continuing over much of northern and central Vermont overnight...so additional snowfall is expected...albeit generally light intensity. Froude numbers low overnight so blocked flow should help northwest Vermont continue to see light snow accumulations all night. Only other area of concern is the lack of snow over northern New York tonight. Seeing a little bit now...but BTV4 showing northwest component helps to organize a little more overnight so have continued the advisory...but knocked total amounts down by an inch or two. This part of the area may be able to lose its advisory a bit earlier than some of the other areas and will continue to monitor. Previous Discussion... Thursday...mid/upper level low will be located over eastern Canada by 18z with deep cyclonic northwest flow across our cwa. Still some question on the amount of moisture on backside...but latest trends continue to show upslope precip along the western slopes and northwest facing slopes of the dacks. The areal coverage will become confined to the upslope regions and northern Champlain Valley associated with blocked flow by midday Thursday. Some additional accumulations are likely especially in the mountains and parts of the Champlain Valley. As winds shift to the northwest low level cold air advection develops with progged 850mb temps dropping to -12c by 12z Thurs. Lows will range from the mid teens to mid 20s tonight...with highs mainly in the 20s on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 222 AM EST Thursday...mid/upper level ridge builds overhead, resulting in benign weather. Can`t rule out slight to low chance for showers, mainly over the higher terrain Saturday as mid level shortwave over Canada grazes the international border bu 00Z Sunday. Temperatures expected to remain above normal as clouds increase associated with aforementioned shortwave.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 222 AM EST Thursday...Looking on the quieter side than the active pattern we have been experiencing recently. Looking at above normal temperatures through the extended with a good portion of the period seeing west or southwest flow aloft to help bring the warmer air into the region. Nothing real exciting with respect to precipitation as upper trough passes to our north Saturday night through Sunday night keeping best dynamics and precipitation chances north of the area. We will be on the tail end of the trough so cannot rule out the possibility of a few showers... especially near the Canadian border. Sunday night into Monday we get into drier northwest flow aloft and then we transition to a more westerly flow Tuesday into Wednesday. This should allow some moisture into the region and should see some small chances for rain or snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 06z Friday...Overall looking at widespread MVFR ceilings through much of the period. Best chance for any IFR ceilings will be through about 15z. Still expecting some light snow through about 15z as well and during this time period there will be MVFR/IFR visibilities. After 15z...visibilities improve into the VFR category as light snow tapers to scattered snow showers...especially in the mountains. Winds will continue to become northwest over time early this morning with gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range between 15z and 00z before tapering off. Outlook 06z Friday through Monday... 06Z Friday through 06Z Sunday...High pressure brings mainly dry/VFR conditions to the region. 06Z Sunday through 00z Tuesday...Mid-level trough in west- northwesterly flow will bring additional chances for scattered snow shower activity with intervals of MVFR/IFR possible. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ011- 019. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ001-010-012. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ002>009-016>018. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ026- 027-029>031-034-087. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ028-035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Banacos/Evenson

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