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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 101131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY TRENDING COLDER. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AN ARCTIC
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL.
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 344 AM EST TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS. THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING HOWEVER. THIS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE
WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...SO HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW
HOWERS. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM GUIDANCE BASED ON
FACT THEY ARE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS IN
MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED EARLY TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. TEMPS WILL EITHER
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY DURING THE DAY DUE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS DOWNWIND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STAYED
CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL TREND
GRADUALLY COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
SHAPING UP TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW
SQUALL ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY 1-2"
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT MAY FALL QUICKLY AND HAVE SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
TEENS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
DESPITE CLOUD COVER. NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM MAY FALL A BIT BELOW ZERO. CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BE BEGIN RETREATING A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH 850
MB TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING TO AROUND -15C BY DAYS END...WE CAN ONLY
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE TEENS. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ONCE AGAIN...ALLOWING FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE TO RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST TUESDAY...BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...FA STILL
INFLUENCED BY CYCLONIC POLAR WNW MID LVL FLOW WITH A SFC TROF
HANGING ACRS ERN GRT LAKES INTO NRN NY THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINE WILL BE CONTINUING MAINLY S OF FA BUT NRN REACHES CUD
EFFECT SRN ST LWRNC/FRANKLIN CTYS BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNFICANT AT
THIS POINT.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS LONGER TERM PERIOD IS THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION
OF SRN AND NRN STREAM ENERGY THIS WEEKEND. THE GEM/ECMWF AND GFS ARE
ALL IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OF EVENTUAL PHASING...TIMING OF SUCH IS
IN QUESTION.

CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE GFS/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT OF ERLR PHASING
AND ARRIVAL OF PCPN WHICH ERLR WPC MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FOLLOWED.
IN MY FCST GRIDS...SNOW WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE COURSE OF SAT
AFTN WITH SAT NGT THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY HAVING ITS BIGGEST IMPACT WITH
GRADUAL DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS SUN AFTN/NGT.

ATTM...IT APPEARS COLD AIR IS DEEPER...STRONGER AND SHLD STAY
ENTRENCHED FOR ALL SNOW. QPF AMTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF THE
BIGGEST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF THIS YOUNG SEASON...WHICH ISNT HARD
TO DO.

IF TRAVELING PLANS THIS WEEKEND...PLEASE CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24+ HOURS
WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTIONS AND WSW FLOW ACRS ERN GRT LAKES
ACCOUNTING FOR SCT -SHSN ON UPSLOPE SITES...ESP KSLK.

CIGS MAINLY VFR/MVFR WITH VSBY THE SAME BUT CANT RULE OUR BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR AT KSLK DURING THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES
AS ARCTIC FNT WILL BRING SCT -SHSN AND SOME SNOWSQUALLS. 12Z
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW