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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 150238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED...ENDING AS
WET SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1027 PM EDT MONDAY...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD FROM SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WESTERN VERMONT THIS
EVENING...A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THREAT OF THUNDER HAS DIMINISHED.
CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN
A FEW SPOTS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD WHERE A FEW SPOTS
(INCLUDING KBTV) HAVE ECLIPSED THE 80F MARK. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS
IS THE FIRST 80F OCCURRENCE SINCE OCT 7 OF LAST YEAR. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT...MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
P-GRAD REMAINS TIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING...YET VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLD
THUNDER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN
VT LATER TONIGHT OR TOWARD MORNING. SOME MINOR CONCERN OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SLV SHOULD ANY OF THE
ACTIVITY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD
AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS WE`RE
IN A CLASSIC LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT HOLDING VERY MILD IN MOST SPOTS UNDER THE BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAINLY 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60F IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE SLV WHERE STRONG FRONTAL
ZONE WILL ENCROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK AND A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. HAVE LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...BUT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS AREA GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON POSITION OF BOUNDARY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY THEN ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY
AN ANAFRONTAL TYPE FRONTAL ZONE DEPICTED ON MOST MODELS...WITH SCT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A STEADY/SOAKING RAINFALL BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES VERY TRICKY AND GIVEN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WILL OFFER
MILDEST READINGS EAST IN THE MORNING THROUGH NOON (60S TO NEAR
70)...WITH READINGS CRASHING THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BY AS MUCH AS 20F IN ONE HOUR AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WINDS CONTINUE QUITE GUSTY...ESP EAST AND
PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE CHANNELED PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH FLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SPEEDS. AS A RESULT...WILL BE
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
APPEAR REASONABLE.

AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHARPLY SUCH THAT P-TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW...THEN ALL SNOW BY AFTEROON IN NRN NY...AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE IN VERMONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. WET ACCUMULATIONS
RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...1-3 IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND PERHAPS 2-5 AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
QUITE THE CHANCE FROM TODAY TO SAY THE LEAST. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN
MTN LOCALES.

THEREAFTER...SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS QUIET AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A CHILLY DAY ON TAP FOR SURE
THOUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
HIGHS IN MOST SPOTS ONLY IN THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 40S
SOUTH. THEN CLR/PTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSUR OVERHEAD AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
LOWS 15 TO 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALLOWING FOR GENTLE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
THEN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS RISE TO 0 TO +3C.

AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY BRINGING AN AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD OR WARM TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 0C GIVING US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BUT HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AT MOST TAF SITES THIS EVENING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. EXCEPTION IS BTV
WHERE WIND GUSTS 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY MSS/SLK WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE LESS TONIGHT AT SITES FURTHER EAST.

SHARP COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z
AND BE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 18Z. VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED
VALLEYS (PBG/BTV/RUT/MSS) REACHING 30 TO 40 KNOTS BTWN 12Z-16Z
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH LLWS IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND SPEED. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR WITH THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...WITH SLK MIXING WITH SNOW BY 18Z
TUESDAY...AND A MIX POSSIBLE AT REST OF SITES TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING OVERNIGHT
AS SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 222 PM EDT MONDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON CONTINUED SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE RUNOFF.
WHILE SOME MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...BASIN-AVG
QPF WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. WHILE NOT EXCESSIVELY HEAVY...THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON MOST AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...IN
SOME CASES INTO MINOR FLOOD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE
ARE THE AUSABLE...WINOOSKI AND THE OTTER CREEK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
OTHER WATERSHEDS MAY IN FACT FLOOD AS WELL WITH MINOR LOWLAND
FIELD FLOODING BEING A NEAR CERTAINTY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011-017>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG