Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051805 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 105 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. CLEARING THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLIER HAS BEEN REPLACED BY STRATOCU AND A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES. LIGHT SNOW THAT WAS AFFECTING PARTS OF VERMONT EARLIER HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND UPPER TROUGH EXITS...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS NOT RISING MUCH FROM CURRENT LEVELS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO THICKER CLOUDS LATER AT NIGHT AS FLOW BACKS TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO TRICKLE INTO THE REGION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...FOR MUCH OF VERMONT SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET, HOWEVER, FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX RIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTER EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH TRACKS TOWARDS THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND MID LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CROSS LAKE ONTARIO I ANTICIPATE SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL HOWEVER AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH BELOW THE SATURATED DGZ WILL ONLY BE 70-80% SO DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT TOTAL SNOW. AS THE MAIN PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH THE NORTH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO WAS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS NOW KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THAT WELL TO THE NORTH IN QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOESN`T TURN NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND SO I STILL EXPECT THE GLANCING BLOW OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT IT WILL MAINLY STAY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN AFFECT CENTRAL VERMONT AND SOUTHWARD. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPS UP ON SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 AND THEN BEHIND THE SYSTEM EXPECT A SHARP COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE DAY AND RAPIDLY COOLING TO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY....ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT EXACTLY HOW THINGS DEVELOP IS STILL A LITTLE MURKY. USING A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN ROTATING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE INTENSIFYING AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. NEITHER REALLY POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT INTO A STRONG COASTAL AS THE VERTICAL STACKING IS POOR. AS SUCH SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO COME BY HOWEVER WE WILL BE UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A POTENT SOURCE FOR ENERGY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR A LONG DURATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES TRENDING SKC BY THIS EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE SLK WHERE OCNL MVFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CIGS VFR AT MOST SITES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT SLK/MSS WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS SLK/MSS ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SAT-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...RJS

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