Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 131813 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 213 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridge will shift east today with a warm southerly breeze developing. This will push temperatures back above normal for today and into this upcoming weekend. A few light rain showers are possible over northern New York and Vermont on Saturday associated with a weak boundary. An approaching storm system will produce gusty southerly winds and a line of showers on late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours with temperatures in the 70s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 147 PM EDT Friday...Other than some tweaks to sky cover and forecast highs for today...bumped down a degree or two...remainder of forecast in real good shape. Previous Discussion... Today...mid/upper level ridge breaks down with approaching s/w energy and some return 850 to 500mb moisture. CWA will be under modest 925mb to 850mb waa on south/southerly 850mb winds of 25 to 35 knots...which will help to advect warmer profiles into our fa. Progged 850mb temps range btwn 7-9c...supporting highs upper 50s mountains to mid 60s warmer valleys. Based on progged 850 to 500mb rh fields...expect some mid/upper level clouds to advect west to east acrs our fa this aftn. Soundings show increasing mixing levels this aftn...so anticipate a few localized gusts in the aligned south/southwest to north/northeast valleys up to 25 mph. Tonight...fast westerly flow aloft continues with progged 500mb winds of 50 to 60 knots...this will help push weak energy vorts acrs our northern cwa. Meanwhile...the best deep layer moisture will be sagging south toward the international border by 12z Sat...so have increased the pops to chc. Given very dry low levels...thinking precip has difficulties reaching the ground. A few light sprinkles/showers possible. Temps will be highly depend upon winds and clouds...with coolest values eastern/southern vt and warmest cpv and slv. Saturday...weak boundary sags south into our central/northern cwa...along with ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture. Dynamics and upper level lift is limited...so not anticipated much qpf. Have continued to mention chc pops with some low likely possible from the dacks into the northern green mountains. Best timing of moisture and weak lift is btwn 15z- 21z. Once again not anticipating a washout...just a few on and off showers mainly over the trrn. QPF will be light and generally under 0.10". Temps will be tempered some by the expected clouds...with highs mainly in the 60s...maybe a spot 70f near vsf.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Cold front looks like it will move close enough to the area that one cannot rule out the possibility of some showers Friday night through Saturday night. Areas most likely to see these showers would be northern New York and the northern third of Vermont as southwest flow aloft will limit the showers from pushing too far south. Not looking at a lot of precipitation with amounts generally less than a quarter inch and precipitation chances will only be in the chance category. The southwest flow aloft will result in above normal temperatures at night and during the day with highs on Saturday in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Trends in the data support the idea that the upstream cold front is slow to move into the region on Sunday and any precipitation will be closely tied more closely to the cold front and approaching upper trough. This leaves most of the area in the warm sector and Sunday`s highs will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Looking at a band of showers along the cold front to move into northern New York during the afternoon hours and late afternoon/early evening hours in Vermont. So not a complete washout for Sunday, but rather a more concentrated burst of precipitation for a shorter time period. Cold front moves east of the area Sunday night into Monday and this will allow for precipitation chances to decrease during this time period. Cold air advection behind the front will bring cooler and drier weather to the area with temperatures a few degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday...but a slow warming and drying trend will take place Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level ridge builds into the area. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions prevailing with high level clouds moving into our region from the West. Southerly winds between 10-15 knots with localized gusts to 20 knots continue. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower from west to east across our terminals this evening with some MVFR ceilings possible after sunset at SLK and toward 06z at MPV...along with a chance of showers at MSS. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 39 kts. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .MARINE... As of 355 am EDT Friday...Lake wind advisory in effect today for south winds increasing 15 to 25 knots and waves building 2 to 4 feet. These winds will continue overnight into early Saturday morning. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Neiles MARINE...Taber

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