Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 022016 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP. HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER... WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS. HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S. COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED. GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY... && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL

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