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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200833
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
433 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will continue unsettled weather this
week, interrupted on Thursday by high pressure and drier
conditions. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of
the season, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in
the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 428 AM EDT Tuesday...South-southwest flow unidirectional
from surface through mid troposphere still advecting plenty of
moisture over the region during the near term period. WPC has a
cold front analyzed from northern VT southward across eastern
PA. Deepest moisture that helped fuel heavy rainfall has shifted
east off the coast, and lighter showers forecast today mainly
behind the surface front. A shortwave trough will eject out of
the base of the larger trough centered to our west, and lift
northeast to bring showers to the region today. Timing for best
chances for rain is morning through mid day, tapering off a bit
in the afternoon. Instability is limited by cooler temperatures
under cloud cover today, and went mainly with rain and a slight
chance for thunder. Precipitable water has dropped off to around
an inch from yesterday`s highs of nearly 1.9 inches. Light to
moderate rainfall amounts forecast today, and showers and storms
will move along quickly and not remain over any particular
area. Temperatures cooler today with upper low inching closer,
and cloud cover will be mainly in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 428 AM EDT Tuesday...Large upper trough remains over the
eastern third of Canada and the Great Lakes/Northeast regions,
and slowly moves east during the short term period. After
decreasing coverage of showers from this afternoon through early
evening, chances renew overnight as another shortwave trough
moves up the St. Lawrence Valley and tracks along the Canadian
border. Instability even more limited during nighttime hours,
and went with showers only and no thunder. Lows mainly in the
50s, limited by cloud cover and dewpoints from falling any
further.

Chance for showers and slight chance thunder continues
Wednesday, with better chances along the Canadian border as the
upper trough axis finally shifts east across the forecast area.
Not much of a surface feature to trigger rain, which will
predominately be driven by instability from passage of cool pool
aloft and surface heating. Low level flow turns more westerly,
and expect greater chances for rain in the favored upslope
regions of the western Green Mountains and northwest Adirondacks
& High Peaks. Wednesday the coolest of the week with lowest
heights, rain, and cloud cover holding readings 65- 75.

Shortwave ridging transitions across the northeast on Thursday
between departing low to the east and next upper low settling
into the Great Lakes. Lower layer RH and subsidence with the
weak high pressure should yield the most sunshine of the week,
and highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 432 AM EDT Tuesday...The early part of the extended period
looks to be active as a frontal boundary brings precipitation
over the area on Friday dragging on into early Saturday as upper
level support in the form of mid-level vorticity will be
lagging behind. GFS and ECMWF differ largely in precipitable
water amounts with the GS looking at up to 1.00", mainly near
the international border, while the ECMWF is a bit more
aggressive with many areas in in the CWA seeing 1.25" to just
shy of 2.00". Either way, things look to shape up to be a rather
wet start to the weekend. The front clears the region by Sunday
as weak ridging moves across the area before the next system of
low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region and into our
CWA early next week.

Look for highs in the 70s to 80s during the period and lows in the
50s to 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...The cold front has pushed east of the
forecast area, and along with it the showers and thunderstorms.
Ceilings overall are VFR currently with KPBG and KRUT bouncing
back and forth between VFR and MVFR.

Expect conditions to deteriorate overnight at SLK and MPV with
ceilings lowering to LIFR and MVFR respectively. Light winds at
the surface and drying conditions should be enough to inhibit
fog development, however low level moisture at MPV and SLK is
expected to result in low level cloud development before sunrise.

VFR conditions are expected across the North Country during the
day Tuesday. S/SW winds will pick up during the daytime around
10kt gusting 15-25 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...KGM/MV