Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180958 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 558 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 558 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED...MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE VERMONT SIDE OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE...AND THOUGH SHORT-LIVED...SEEMED WORTHY OF AN UPDATE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW FROM EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST COMPARED THE PAST FEW DAYS ONE WOULD THINK TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT WITH 925MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND +14C AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND +8C HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 336 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT CHILLY FOR MID-AUGUST WITH WIDESPREAD 40S...TO LOCALLY 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE PLACID. WITH RECENT RAINFALL...GOOD BET FOR SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED LOCALES AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND TEMPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY EVENING CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF SOME CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE TREND TOWARDS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOME INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 407 AM EDT MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE REGION...AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 06Z MONDAY SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TODAY AND WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTH FROM CANADA. EXPECTING SKY COVER TO DIMINISH TO JUST SOME FEW OR SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BY 14Z MONDAY... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS NEARLY CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING...MOST PREVALENT AT KMPV/KSLK. 18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. AGAIN...PATCHY MVFR/IFR BR/FG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH

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