Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201152 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 652 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS DURING CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 622 AM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CHANGE FOR 630 AM UPDATE WAS TO USE BTV12 BLENDED WITH BTV4 TO GET CLOSE TO CURRENT SKY COVER AND HOW CLOUDS MIGHT EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE AFFECTS OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EST SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE DATA STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ON A RATHER QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 50-60 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SITUATION WITH THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON UTILITIES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMOUNTS MAY VARY QUITE A BIT HOWEVER DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THIS COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE AND FLOOD THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. DRY SLOT MOVES IN CHRISTMAS DAY AND BY THE TIME COLDER AIR MOVES IN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS HANGING ON AT SLK HOWEVER...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY AROUND 14Z. MVFR CIGS TRENDING VFR AT PBG THIS MORNING. AT REST OF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. SOME MID CLOUDS ENTER THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT MOST SITES...AND IFR AT SLK. ALSO...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES TONIGHT IN BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUN-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. 12Z WED-00Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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