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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 232328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 721 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL STORM
REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THAT REGION. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2") THAT OCCURRED
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...NW WINDS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO DISSIPATE MUCH OF THE FOG.
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN RECENT NIGHTS
WITH FROPA AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO.
LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO