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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 090833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY FOR A NICE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A
COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING LOWS IN SUCCESSION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COASTAL STORM TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WET AND HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 433 AM EST SUNDAY...CLD COVER FROM EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING...SETTING UP
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LKS REGION TO MV OVER THE
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF TODAY. NICE SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY ON TAP FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH TEMPS RANGING MAINLY IN THE 20S WHICH WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABV CURRENT TEMPS WITH FULL SUN TODAY...BUT BELOW
NORMAL AS APPROACH OF RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR CAA FROM CENTRAL
QUEBEC/ONTARIO. GOING INTO TONIGHT THOUGH...SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LKS AND INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO
SHORTWAVES MDLS HAVE BEEN SHOWING TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. BULK OF DYNAMIC/ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OVERNGT...BUT WITH 0.10-0.15` QPF
POTENTIAL...1-2" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNGT...HIGHEST TOTALS OF
HIR TRRN OF DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES. OVERNGT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS MAINLY WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN DACKS...AIDED BY
RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT BFR CLDS SET IN WITH SYSTEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 433 AM EST SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CONTINUES TO SLIDE S AND E OF THE AREA. CWA WILL SEE -SW TO
CONTINUE THRU THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING
SYSTEM AIDING IN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR
TRRN...BFR ENDING. CWA WILL SEE LITTLE BREAK IN ACTION MON NGT
THRU TUESDAY AS SECOND SHORTWAVE RIGHT ON HEELS OF EXITING FIRST
ONE. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN FIRST SYSTEM
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MORE BROAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
AREA. WILL BE LOOKING FOR 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUM POTENTIAL WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS OVER HIR TRRN NW FACING SLOPES. -SW WILL TAPER FROM W TO E
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEHIND SHORTWAVE
WILL AID IN PUSHING SYSTEM EAST OF AREA BY NIGHTFALL. --SW STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS CLDS WILL LINGER OVER AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS MON/TUES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABV NORMAL AS
WSW FLOW WILL BRING IN WAA AIR TO HAVE MID 30S MAINLY FOR HIGHS
WITH SOME U30S POSSIBLE IN CVLY. OVERNGT LOWS LOOK TO BE NEAR/TO ABV
NORMAL AS CLD COVER BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH SOME SPOTS TEENS IN NE
VT/DACKS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST SATURDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN THE
VALLEYS...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW/RAIN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DECREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF CLEARING.

PROBLEM PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...DUE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. ALL 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE MORE PHASING OF THE TWO
STREAMS THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. GFS STILL FURTHER SOUTH WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HEAVIER QPF...WITH LOW TRACK JUST INSIDE THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF TAKES LOW UP ACROSS CAPE
COD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY. MODEL BLEND OF QPF
SUGGESTS AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TO OVER AN INCH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW UPPER STREAMS WILL PHASE...SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPS. TEMPS FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
CHANCE FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S...THEN WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 10000 FEET BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 02Z-
04Z MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR...TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...POSSIBLE IFR/SNOW IN NE COAST STORM.

12Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...WGH/SISSON