Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200833 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 433 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will continue unsettled weather this week, interrupted on Thursday by high pressure and drier conditions. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of the season, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 428 AM EDT Tuesday...South-southwest flow unidirectional from surface through mid troposphere still advecting plenty of moisture over the region during the near term period. WPC has a cold front analyzed from northern VT southward across eastern PA. Deepest moisture that helped fuel heavy rainfall has shifted east off the coast, and lighter showers forecast today mainly behind the surface front. A shortwave trough will eject out of the base of the larger trough centered to our west, and lift northeast to bring showers to the region today. Timing for best chances for rain is morning through mid day, tapering off a bit in the afternoon. Instability is limited by cooler temperatures under cloud cover today, and went mainly with rain and a slight chance for thunder. Precipitable water has dropped off to around an inch from yesterday`s highs of nearly 1.9 inches. Light to moderate rainfall amounts forecast today, and showers and storms will move along quickly and not remain over any particular area. Temperatures cooler today with upper low inching closer, and cloud cover will be mainly in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 428 AM EDT Tuesday...Large upper trough remains over the eastern third of Canada and the Great Lakes/Northeast regions, and slowly moves east during the short term period. After decreasing coverage of showers from this afternoon through early evening, chances renew overnight as another shortwave trough moves up the St. Lawrence Valley and tracks along the Canadian border. Instability even more limited during nighttime hours, and went with showers only and no thunder. Lows mainly in the 50s, limited by cloud cover and dewpoints from falling any further. Chance for showers and slight chance thunder continues Wednesday, with better chances along the Canadian border as the upper trough axis finally shifts east across the forecast area. Not much of a surface feature to trigger rain, which will predominately be driven by instability from passage of cool pool aloft and surface heating. Low level flow turns more westerly, and expect greater chances for rain in the favored upslope regions of the western Green Mountains and northwest Adirondacks & High Peaks. Wednesday the coolest of the week with lowest heights, rain, and cloud cover holding readings 65- 75. Shortwave ridging transitions across the northeast on Thursday between departing low to the east and next upper low settling into the Great Lakes. Lower layer RH and subsidence with the weak high pressure should yield the most sunshine of the week, and highs in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 432 AM EDT Tuesday...The early part of the extended period looks to be active as a frontal boundary brings precipitation over the area on Friday dragging on into early Saturday as upper level support in the form of mid-level vorticity will be lagging behind. GFS and ECMWF differ largely in precipitable water amounts with the GS looking at up to 1.00", mainly near the international border, while the ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with many areas in in the CWA seeing 1.25" to just shy of 2.00". Either way, things look to shape up to be a rather wet start to the weekend. The front clears the region by Sunday as weak ridging moves across the area before the next system of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region and into our CWA early next week. Look for highs in the 70s to 80s during the period and lows in the 50s to 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...The cold front has pushed east of the forecast area, and along with it the showers and thunderstorms. Ceilings overall are VFR currently with KPBG and KRUT bouncing back and forth between VFR and MVFR. Expect conditions to deteriorate overnight at SLK and MPV with ceilings lowering to LIFR and MVFR respectively. Light winds at the surface and drying conditions should be enough to inhibit fog development, however low level moisture at MPV and SLK is expected to result in low level cloud development before sunrise. VFR conditions are expected across the North Country during the day Tuesday. S/SW winds will pick up during the daytime around 10kt gusting 15-25 knots. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Hanson SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...KGM/MV

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