Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 010710 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 310 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30 POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND 800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENEARLLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/MV EQUIPMENT...JMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.