Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 172319 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 719 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper level disturbance continues to push east along the international border, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours. The upper level disturbance will move east on Tuesday but still a few additional showers or thunderstorms are possible especially over eastern Vermont. A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the area on Wednesday before another frontal system moves in on Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather are likely by Saturday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 713 PM EDT Monday...Updated forecast to remove Windsor and Rutland Counties from svr watch box and tweak pops/wx based on current radar trends. Areas of showers with embedded storms continue across our central/southern zones with limited instability. Laps indicates surface based cape values around 1000 j/kg over southern ct river valley...but with convection overhead...this will decrease next hour. Otherwise...water vapor shows mid/upper level subsidence/dry air aloft...which will shift east and help to decrease areal coverage of showers/storms by mid evening. Areal coverage of fog/br is tricky...as soundings show low level winds of 10 to 15 knots thru 06z...before weakening. Have continued to mention patchy fog in most areas...based on low level moisture and lighter winds after 06z. Rest of fcst in good shape. Previous discussion below: Upper level trough very slowly pushing eastward along the international border currently. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours. Convective activity will be ending with loss of daytime heating following sunset. After midnight expect mainly dry conditions with mild temperatures under partly cloudy skies. Areas of dense of fog are expected after 06z, especially at locations where heavy rain fell with thunderstorms today and at the typically fog prone spots. Upper level trough continues to push eastward overnight and into Tuesday morning. Some showers are possible east of the Greens Tuesday morning, but as trough pushes east will lose the forcing and the rest of the day should be drier. Tuesday will be the start of a short lived warm up with surface and upper level ridging beginning. 850 temps will reach the upper teens and temperatures push into the 80s across our forecast area. Tuesday night will be dry and slightly warmer than seasonal normals.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 PM EDT Monday...Ridge of high pressure will be over the North Country most of Wednesday, keeping things dry into the late afternoon/early evening hours. Clouds will be increasing from the northwest ahead of approaching frontal boundary. There`s a slight chance that precipitation may reach northern St Lawrence county through the Champlain Valley around the international border during the afternoon. 925mb temperatures will reach 20C-22C with plentiful sunshine during most of the day allowing max temperatures to reach the 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 430 PM EDT Monday...Overall active pattern continues throughout the long term. Frontal boundary looks to weaken as it moves into the North Country Wednesday night. Expect showers and possible thunderstorms to dissipate by Thursday morning. This brief break will see more showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon into evening as a mid-level shortwave moves across the region. Model guidance differs on the timing and strength of this shortwave and the surface trough reflected at the surface. Surface trough and showers could linger into Friday before high pressure builds in Friday night into early Saturday. Yet another shortwave looks to affect the northeast for the latter half of Saturday into Sunday. Model guidance then differ on a more significant vort and associated trough tracking across the Great Lakes and the exact timing and track it takes Sunday. Lots of uncertainty, however with the southward progression of vorticity on GFS and ECMWF, leaning toward a wetter solution Sunday into Sunday night. There is a large surface ridge building into the region from Canada...extending from James Bay for the beginning of the work week that could provide a period of drier weather. Overall temperatures throughout the period will be withing 5 degrees of normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Locally MVFR/IFR visibilities in heavier SHRA/TSRA+ this afternoon, as upper level trof moves eastward. Could be some hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain with any TSRA. Storms are pretty much past MSS and SLK but have TS mentioned at all other TAF sites over the next couple hours. Winds light and variable trending southerly 10 kts or less except higher near TSRA. Some areas of IFR Fog developing toward 04-07Z after all the rain with partial clearing and light winds. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Neiles

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