Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300507 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 107 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARM FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS COME TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT PART OF THE WEEKEND MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AT 05Z...BUT IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ADVECT NEWD FROM WRN PA/S-CENTRAL NY INTO VERMONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER OHIO. THIS CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD GIVEN SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN OBSERVED FOG ACROSS NRN NY WHERE SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR AND RADIATIVE COOLING HAS BEEN ENHANCED. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 50S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS WITH BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH APPROX 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT FROM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THAT TIME. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO ONLY EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY STORMS AND FEW TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 11C TO 13C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL MUGGY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND CORRESPONDING PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE MILD MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC-NY TRIPLE POINT BORDER EARLY IN THE DAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80KTS, WHILE THE BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE LOW 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STRONGER STORMS, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY TRIGGER STORMS BEFORE BEST INSTABILITY HAS TIME TO DEVELOP, LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH LESS OF A BREAK IN CLOUDS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. WITHOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD TO DRY OUT SOILS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGE WEST AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED TO BE ACROSS OUR CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. GIVEN RECENT PATTERN...PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND POTENT 5H VORT IN THE FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO THE MTNS OF VT ON THURSDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. STILL GREATER UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LIFT. GFS IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SYSTEM...WHILE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS BETTER LIFT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR CWA. GIVEN POSITION OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY...THINKING A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS WITH A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONT TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO M/U 50S WARMER/WIDER VALLEYS AND NEAR URBAN CENTERS. A FEW SPOTTY LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BETWEEN 11 AND 13C...WITH WEAK BUILDING RIDGE. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK...WITH VFR AREA-WIDE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. SLOWLY EXITING LOW/MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT FL250. THIS GENERAL CLEARING...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RECENT RAIN...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE AT MPV/SLK...WITH A PERIOD ALSO LIKELY AT PBG. MSS ALSO MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME MVFR BR. BTV/RUT NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE. AFTER 17-18Z...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR...SOME BRIEF WINDOWS OF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT...TURNING TO THE SOUTH FROM 5-10 TO KNOTS ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES ON TUESDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL ON WEDS MORNING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY ON WEDS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 500 PM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TWO MONTHLY RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORD AT BURLINGTON MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. MOUNT MANSFIELD HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 4 PM, 15.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. AT 8.64 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.28 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.92 INCHES SET BACK IN 1922. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

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