Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181650 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1250 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1242 PM EDT MONDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A CLEARING TREND...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT. 850 MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND +8C THIS AFTERNOON...SO EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 336 AM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT CHILLY FOR MID-AUGUST WITH WIDESPREAD 40S...TO LOCALLY 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE PLACID. WITH RECENT RAINFALL...GOOD BET FOR SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED LOCALES AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FROST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND TEMPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY EVENING CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF SOME CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE TREND TOWARDS SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOME INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 407 AM EDT MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE REGION...AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 11Z MONDAY SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TODAY AND WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTH FROM CANADA. EXPECTING SKY COVER TO DIMINISH TO JUST SOME FEW OR SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BY 16Z MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS NEARLY CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AFTER 07Z TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AFTER 07Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING...MOST PREVALENT AT KMPV/KSLK. 18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. AGAIN...PATCHY MVFR/IFR BR/FG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH

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