Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231845 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 245 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will continue to dominate regional weather conditions through early next week with mainly clear skies and very warm, near record-setting temperatures. Sensible conditions change by the middle to later portions of next week as a Canadian cold front brings cooler weather along with a chance of showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...More of the same tonight into Sunday night as deep layer ridging amplifies across the region, post-tropical cyclone Jose slowly dissipates south of Nantucket and major hurricane Maria drifts slowly north off the southeastern seaboard. No impacts from these tropical systems are expected. As the high bridges overhead an even warmer and more humid airmass will advect in from the west and south, setting the stage for record-setting high temperatures on Sunday. Leaned close to a bias-corrected MOS solution in regard to temperatures which offers an expected larger than normal diurnal range through the period. Lows tonight and Sunday night mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, then solid 80s to locally near 90 in favored warm spots on Sunday. See climate data below for specific records for today through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...Little change to the weather is expected for Sunday night and Monday with the upper ridge remaining in place over the area. Dew points will be on the high side so it will be another night of above normal temperatures and on Monday we are still looking at highs well into the 80s. The higher dew points on Monday will push heat index values into the lower 90s across the larger valleys (Saint Lawrence and Champlain). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 356 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains on track with a general flattening of the upper ridge Monday night through Wednesday. Warm temperatures aloft will continue to result in temperatures about 20 degrees above normal on Tuesday and about 15 degrees above normal on Wednesday. The flow aloft becomes more west and southwest by Wednesday and this may result in an increased potential for isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon. A greater likelihood of showers is expected for Thursday as an upper level trough of low pressure moves into the region. Once the trough passes to the east on Friday cooler and drier weather is expected. High temperatures will return to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. The possible exception might be some overnight fog and IFR/LIFR conditions at KMPV/KSLK from 07-12Z Sunday. Confidence only moderate given recent dry weather and dry soil conditions. Light winds less than 10 knots are expected through the period. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Monday: VFR. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23 to Tue Sep 26 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/23 87 / 1895 84 / 1964 83 / 1965 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...JMG CLIMATE...BTV

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