Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221420 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1020 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Light rain showers and overcast skies will linger today, as a trough of low pressure exits the region. Cool temperatures today will moderate toward normal as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will enter the forecast toward the end of the week with an area of low pressure moving through the northeast Thursday and Friday, resulting in relatively cool temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1009 AM EDT Monday...Secondary surface trough axis shifting ewd across w-central NY/PA is associated with an additional band of shower activity...tracking ewd across the nrn Adirondacks and St. Lawrence valley at 14Z. Have made some adjustments to PoPs to account for slightly earlier arrival of this trough and associated shower activity. Not expecting anything too significant...with an additional 0.01 - 0.10" rainfall on top of the 0.3-0.5" that generally fell during the overnight hours. Will see some gradual mid-level drying this afternoon (above 750mb) with WSWLY flow aloft, but pronounced low-level inversion should continue to hold low stratus in areawide with overcast skies and cool temperatures. Afternoon highs only expected to range from the lower 50s east of the Green Mtns, to near 60F at BTV, and upr 50s to lower 60s across nrn NY. The KCXX vad wind profile still indicates 25-30kt flow at 2-3kft AGL. Won`t fully see these winds at low elevations due to stability, but occasional gusts to 20-25 mph are possible thru this aftn. Expect winds remaining 20-25kts over the broad portion of Lake Champlain, and the Lake Wind Advisory continues there. Tonight through Tuesday a weak surface ridge builds into the region. Lowering inversion and light surface winds, along with moist ground from recent rain will promote fog formation in the usual areas. During this time flow aloft remains southwesterly, and low pressure over the Great Lakes will ride through the 500 mb ridge, suppressing the ridge & shifting it east. The low passes well enough north that the surface ridge will win out with no rain during this time, but will still be quite a few clouds around. Tuesday about 10 degree warmer than monday with highs in the 60s/near 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Weak ridge both aloft and at the surface build across our cwa on Weds...ahead of developing full latitude trof over the MS River Valley. This ridging should keep moisture and precip associated with weak low pres riding along the eastern seaboard to our east on Tuesday Night into Weds...with mainly a dry forecast anticipated. Progged 850mb temps between 9-11c...support highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer valleys on Weds. Mid/upper level closed cyclonic circulation over the MS River Valley slowly moves eastward toward the OH Valley on Weds Night....with southerly winds and increasing clouds. Given the slow movement of the closed system from the flow aloft...will keep Weds Night dry with temps mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 349 AM EDT Monday...A period of unsettled weather likely Thursday into Friday...with occasional rain showers and breezy southerly winds. Closed mid/upper level circulation will slowly track toward the Mid Atlantic States as 998mb low pres is located near Binghamton, NY by 00z Friday. The combination of strong southerly flow between 850 and 500mb will help advect deeper layer moisture into our cwa...with PWS >1.0 developing. The initial warm air advection surge will produce a period of showers on Thursday with qpf values generally between 0.10 and 0.25. Some downslope shadowing/enhancement on southeast 925mb to 850mb of 30 to 40 knots is likely. Meanwhile...strong 5h energy rounds mid/upper level trof base on Thursday Night...with system becoming vertically stacked over southern New England by Friday. The combination of easterly 925mb to 700mb flow and favorable energy aloft will produce another round of light to moderate rainfall on THursday night into Friday. Depending upon exact track of low pres...will determine placement of heaviest qpf...but nose of 850mb jet would suggest central/eastern VT. Thinking additional qpf will range between 0.25 western areas to 0.75 central/eastern VT...with around 0.50 in the CPV. Will mention likely pops for this period. Friday night into Saturday...system will slowly lift northeast with mainly light terrain driven/upslope showers persisting into Saturday. Difficult to time individual pieces of s/w energy in the northwest flow aloft...but thinking lingering mid level moisture and favorable upslope flow...some rain shower activity is possible into Saturday. Sunday...Still some uncertainty on Sunday with timing of warm front feature and associated potential for showers. At this time...Sunday Morning looks dry...with a chance of showers increasing during the afternoon hours...along with increasing humidity levels. Any precip looks to be light and generally under 0.20". For temps...mainly the mid 60s to mid 70s For Thursday...but only mid/upper 50s to mid 60s with widespread clouds/rain showers for Friday with coolest values across the eastern mountains. Weekend temps mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs and lows mid 40s to mid 50s. No major heat anticipated with general mid/upper level trof across the NE Conus this upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Rain has ended and 12Z TAFs reflect no precip for first few hours, then a few hours of 4sm -shra or vcsh mid day in northern New York terminals, and early-mid afternoon in Vermont. MVFR cigs at KMSS/KSLK at 11z to spread east during the day. Cigs to lower through the day but remain MVFR, bottoming out at OVC015 00-06z. Some improvement to VFR cigs after 06z west to east. Exception is in areas of fog formation, primarily KSLK/KMPV after 06z where OVC008 forecast with 1SM BR. Any fog to dissipate shortly after 12z Tuesday. Strong south wind from the south around 12-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots this morning, tapering off after 21z. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Patchy morning FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA. Friday: MVFR. Likely RA. && .MARINE... As of 425 am EDT Monday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect today to early evening. Winds have come up sharply on the lake with 4 am EDT obs gusting to 31 knots. Air temperature has dropped to near water temperature and aided in mixing stronger winds down. Strongest wind, 20-30 knots, before noon but will remain above wind advisory threshold at 15-25 knots until this evening. Waves building to 2-4 feet, with highest waves are expected across the northern portion of the broad lake south of Grand Isle. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hanson SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Hanson MARINE...Team BTV

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