Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 040800 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 300 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT A RETURN TO COOLER MORE SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFFECT THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...WELL, WE ENDED UP KILLING TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE YESTERDAY EVENING BREAKING BURLINGTON DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON BOTH THE 3RD AND 4TH AT LOCAL MIDNIGHT WITH A READING OF 54. SO GOES IT IN THIS UNPRECEDENTED WARM WINTER WITH BURLINGTON NOW HAVING SET 5 NEW RECORD HIGHS FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH TODAY. IN TERMS OF TODAY`S WEATHER THAT MILD TREND CONTINUES, THOUGH TO A LESSER EXTENT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE LAGGING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT OCCLUDED LOW THAT PRODUCED OUR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY. 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES STEADILY COOL THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS SFC READINGS WON`T CLIMB TOO MUCH FROM MORNING VALUES, GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY OR PERHAPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER, SINCE WE`RE STARTING SO MILD THOSE READINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS VT, AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN NY COUNTIES. WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT AND EVOLVING H5 UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST VARIABLE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE ALSO COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME MODEST RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS SLOWLY VEERING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. BY TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN CONTINUED VARIABLE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. COLD THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S ACROSS VT, AND FROM 15 TO 20 ACROSS NORTHERN NY. THESE VALUES ARE A TAD ABOVE CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE, BUT GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND LACK OF SNOW COVER I FELT LEANING A TAD ON THE WARMER SIDE MADE SENSE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BUT NOT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...WEAK FORCING AS WELL. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SORT OF JUST LINGERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. FAVORABLE FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO...NO REAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...BUT SOUTHER SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY....WILL HAVE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHUTTING DOWN. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHERN ZONES. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD OVER OUR AREA. ON MONDAY OUR REGION WILL BE SET UP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL OF THE EAST COAST OF THE US AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SPINS UP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO THE COASTAL LOW. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING SOME SNOW AT LEAST TO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY OUT TO SEA WITH NO IMPACTS FOR US. STILL LACKING MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS STORM...HOPEFULLY DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR SOON. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VARIABLE CONDS TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS FROM 12Z ONWARD AS WEAK TROUGH AND BRIEF -SHRAS CROSS THE AREA. BETWEEN 06-12Z A MIX OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR AND VFR DEPENDING ON TERMINAL WITH LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AT KMPV. WINDS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/VT TERMINALS, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY AT KSLK/KMSS. AGAIN, A BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z WINDS REMAIN WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND OCCNLY GUSTY TO 20 KTS WITH CIGS GENERALLY CLIMBING TO VFR. EXCEPTIONS AT KSLK AND POSSIBLY KMSS WHERE SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER. UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI-12Z FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. 12Z FRI-00Z SUN...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...BANACOS/JMG

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