Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160813 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 313 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1242 AM EST TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN SEVERAL LOCATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT... BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 306 AM EST TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES WITH DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OROGRAPHIC THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES FROM THIS POINT ONWARD...BOTH DO SHOW REGION BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUPERBLEND POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME TYPE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED...ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z (LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO

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