Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181804 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will dominate our weather for the week. The high pressure will also keep Jose well south of New England, so all that we will see is an increase in clouds and chances for showers across central and southern Vermont late Tuesday and Wednesday. The rest of the region will remain dry this week. The high pressure will also keep temperatures above normal.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 145 PM EDT Monday...forecast in decent shape for the afternoon. did make some minor adjustments based on latest radar trends for placement of the initial small showers that have bubbled up over the higher terrain. HRRR still seems the best of the convective models, so followed it`s lead. Given the moisture depth is not all that much and the amount of mid level dry air in place, the isolated showers we get will remain across the higher terrain and will not last long nor bring any significant precipitation. And 0% chance of thunder. Temperatures across the region are at or above previously forecast highs, so did adjust upward a couple of degrees. It appears the smoke layer aloft is just a bit thinner than it was yesterday, so we are getting just a little bit more insolation to warm things up. Well, at least that is my theory. Winds remain light, though there is a tendancy for them to turn southeast across Vermont in response to Jose well to the south. Overnight: expecting another quiet night, with areas of fog once again developing, especially in the more normal fog areas. Lows again well above normal, with 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday: Watching for low level moisture from the Atlantic being advected westward into portions of eastern Vermont. More guidance is picking up on this, and given the flow around Jose, it does make sense. Thus expecting it to end up being a "murky" looking day for southeast Vermont with low stratus hanging tough, even after the morning fog lifts. The clouds will also have an impact on temperatures, and continued with the idea of only in the lower 70s down around Springfield, while near 80F/low 80s in the Champlain Valley and points westward. Looks like that Atlantic moisture gets deep enough for some light rain showers by afternoon. Liked how the NAM and NAM3km are handling it, so used a model blend to drive the hourly PoP/weather evoluton. Tuesday night: 12z guidance didn`t suggest anything much different than what we previously had. Looking at 35-50% chance of light rain for roughly a St J to Rutland line and points south. That should be the farthest northwest any rain shield from Jose should make it. Even then, the rain won`t be heavy. Maybe upwards of 1/4" of rain. Otherwise we are too far away to see any strong winds. Once again, overnight lows will be above normal with 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 341 AM EDT Monday...Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest track and guidance on Hurricane Jose. Tuesday night into wednesday looks to be the most active period of the next week as we see some fringe effects of Jose, mainly in the form of rain showers over south-central VT and even some isolated activity up to NEK. The activity looks to linger over the southern counties until the afternoon. Latest trends bring Jose near or just inside the 40N/70W benchmark then the brakes get put on due to building ridge to our west with Jose drifting ENE then the longer range models show more looping with Jose which from there we won`t even attempt to conjecture. Wednesday highs will continue to be above season norms with highs in the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 341 AM EDT Monday...Jose looks to have diminishing potential influence for the long term as the main weather driver is the large upper ridge that will be in control through next weekend. As mentioned earlier most of the models want to loop Jose ESE from New England and as it loops south-southeast this just allows the Upper Ridge to build in more. This leads to unseasonably mild and dry weather for late week and weekend with highs starting in the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s by weekend with lows in 40s/50s. Looking beyond this period, with a looping Jose or remnants of Jose, Maria looms in the distance and could have potential impacts for the US next week. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18Z Tuesday...the next 24 hours will be pretty similar to the past 24 hours. VFR area wide this afternoon, with only isolated light showers over higher terrain. Should not affect any TAF locations. Overnight expecting clear skies, with areas of fog again developing after 04z. Most TAF locations will be impacted, with visibilities expected to 1/2sm or lower for SLK and MPV. Although most areas will clear to VFR by late Tuesday morning, expecting lower MVFR ceilings to remain in place across southeast and south-central Vermont. At this time, think RUT will be most impacted by the lower ceilings. Those clouds may end up staying in MPV as well, but lower confidence in that scenario. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Patchy FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nash NEAR TERM...Nash SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Nash

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