Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240710 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low pressure will cross the area today into tonight with widespread rainfall and cool temperatures before exiting east on Tuesday. High pressure brings a brief stretch of fair weather on Wednesday before a weak cold front brings a renewed threat of showers and storms on Thursday. Fair weather then returns for Friday into next weekend with temperatures near seasonal late summer norms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Monday...A soggy, damp and dreary 24-36 hours remains on tap for our area today into Tuesday morning as upper low pressure and an accompanying 500 mb longwave trough slowly pivot through the area. Good PVA and diffluence aloft will aid dynamical support for upward motion and rainfall through the period, some of which could be heavy at times across our northern New York counties today into early this evening. Instability remains rather marginal and have kept with prior thinking confining any lower thunder threat in these western counties only into this evening where modestly steep mid-level lapse rates exist. Given the expected lack of intense rainfall rates and seasonable 3/6 hr flash flood headwater guidance values, the threat of flash flooding still appears low at this point, despite a marginal risk area being maintained in our area by WPC. That said, model-blended QPF totals shown for this event will range from 0.50 to 1 inch across VT and from 1 to 2 inches in northern NY through Tuesday morning with localized totals to 2.5 inches in portions of the SLV where some modest watershed rises will be possible. Temperatures will trend quite cool by late July standards with readings only topping out in the upper 50s to mid 60s today, coolest across northern NY. Winds mainly light east to southeasterly, though a brief window of southeasterly gusts to perhaps 25-35 mph will exist along the western slopes of the central and southern Greens this morning through mid-afternoon or so. By tonight showers will remain quite abundant in coverage, though wane in overall intensity as the sytem continues to pivot slowly east. Patchy br/fog also a good bet just about anywhere as temperatures hold in the 50s. Winds light. On Tuesday widespread morning showers gradually move east and/or fade away as longwave trough exits east and building high pressure advances east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Plenty of clouds should be the rule most of the day, though some partial sunshine will be possible from the Champlain Valley west by later in the afternoon. Temperatures remain on the cool side in the 60s, possibly touching the 70F mark in the SLV where partial sun may arrive a bit earlier than other areas. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 321 PM EDT Sunday...Mid-level trough over the North Country will continue producing showers on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The trough will be replaced with high pressure Tuesday night with diminishing cloud cover allowing for possible fog development towards early Wednesday morning. At the surface, the ridge of high pressure will crest over the region early Wednesday, then slide off the New England coast during the day. Southwest flow will return, filtering in warmer air. Seasonably cold temperatures on Tuesday with maxes generally in the 60s and mins Tuesday night in the 50s will recover on Wednesday as maxes reach the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 321 PM EDT Sunday...Surface ridge continues to slide into the Atlantic as frontal system approaches the North Country from the northwest on Wednesday night. Expect this boundary to bring showers late Wednesday night through Thursday. At this point, models diverge on sensible weather Thursday night into Friday, but trending to keep precipitation and associated low further south, possibly affecting the southern half of the forecast area. GFS and ECMWF agree on another ridge of high pressure building in from Canada for the weekend. Temperatures throughout the period expected to be near normal. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...Deteriorating conditions expected across the area today into tonight as upper low pressure brings widespread rainfall to the region. Thunder threat rather low and confined to northern New York counties. Lack of expected coverage warrants ommission from NY terminal forecasts at this point. Generally looking at VFR trending MVFR at all terminals in the 09-18Z time frame as rain arrives from southwest to northeast. Brief IFR visibilities possible in heavier showers, especially in northern NY. Showers trend a bit lighter after 00Z Tuesday, though solid coverage remains across the area as cigs lower into the 005-015 AGL range (IFR/MVFR) with widespread 3-5sm br. Winds east to southeasterly through the period mainly in the 5 to 15 knot range, though occasionally gusty to 30 kts at KRUT in the 12-00Z time frame. Outlook... Monday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy FG. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG

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