Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 132358 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 658 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The storm that brought heavy rain, heavy snow, mixed precipitation, and flooding due to ice jams has moved northeast of the area. On the backside of the storm colder air is moving into the region on gusty northwest winds. Very cold wind chills will result...especially across much of northern New York. In addition...ice jam flooding will continue to be an issue tonight. Cold but dry weather is expected for Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 658 PM EST Saturday...The only main change to the forecast as of early evening was to add a greater coverage of cloud cover across northern counties into the first half of the night. Lingering low level moisture and blocked flow (Froude #s < 0.25) all support this thinking despite most models struggling with the current degree of coverage. I also added scattered flurries on the Vermont side of Lake Champlain as moisture fluxes continue off Lake Champlain as a result of cold northwesterly flow. Any accumulations will be negligible - perhaps a dusting here and there. Have a great evening. Prior discussion... Storm has exited the region with just some lingering clouds and a few snow showers through this evening. Should see more noticeable clearing and with cold temperatures and gusty northwest winds...very cold wind chills will develop over the area. At this time it looks like wind chill advisory criteria will be met over a good part of northern New York and have gone ahead and issued a wind chill advisory from 700 pm until 900 am on Sunday. Wind chill issues will likely be more of a function of colder temperatures than the wind. High pressure will be over the area on Sunday for dry weather and a good deal of sunshine. However...high temperatures will generally be in the single digits above zero. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 341 PM EST Saturday...Clear skies and light winds Sunday night will lead to another cold night with temperatures below zero once again. Flow aloft becomes more west and southwest with time on Monday and Monday night. This will lead to a warming trend with highs on Monday in the teens and there will be some increasing chances for light snow late Monday night as a trough of low pressure approaches the region. Most of the precipitation will likely fall on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 341 PM EST Saturday...Another deep trof and closed low weakening as it moves across Great Lakes into NY/VT Tue-Wed. It will bring about periodic snow showers/light snow with a few inches possible. Southerly flow ahead will allow temps to rebound into the 20s on Tuesday and upon passage of trof and weak system/front temps only drop back a few degrees Wed-Thu. Another short drops down into long wave trof as its mainly east of our area for still a chance of some snow showers Thu, but it looks like the timing and positioning of these features will likely mean any offshore development to stay offshore. Can`t rule it out but the trend is heading in that direction. Thereafter...zonal flow sets up across northern CONUS/Canada for a moderating trend into next weekend and relatively quiet. Any possible disturbance late Sat/Sun would be a greater threat across the north as the track is largely across Canada. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR with scattered flurries through 06Z, gradually trending mainly SKC from 06Z to 15Z Sunday as any light precipitation ends. Winds light west to northwesterly from 5 to 10 knots early, trending light and variable later tonight into Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 333 PM EST Saturday...Ice jams and continued high flows are still having an impact on the area. Flooding continues to be reported as a result of the ice jams. Given little change in flows and ice jams late this afternoon and tonight flooding will continue to be a threat across parts of the area despite no additional precipitation expected. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NYZ026>031-034- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...JMG HYDROLOGY...Evenson

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