Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141455 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 955 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide the North Country with mainly clear skies and cool conditions for Sunday into Monday. Our next weak weather system will spread some light snow late Tuesday into Wednesday across our region with temperatures warming to near normal levels. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 954 AM EST Sunday...Overall forecast in good shape with just some tweaks to add a bit more clouds south of Lake Champlain and tweak temperatures to match current conditions as they are still running a bit on the cold side. Should start warming up soon. Previous Discussion... A cold morning across northern NY into Vt...as surface high pres builds into our cwa. The combination of clear skies, light winds, and fresh snow pack has resulted in sharp drops in temps across the region this morning with Saranac and Star Lake down to -27F as of 6 AM. Widespread values of -15f to -25f have been observed over northern NY with slightly warmer readings over VT, because of more wind and some lingering clouds. Have updated to capture latest hourly temps/dew points and winds. Otherwise...temps will climb quickly once the sunrises with most locations above zero by this aftn under mostly sunny skies. Surface analysis places 1040mb high pres nosing into northern NY this morning with clear skies and light winds. This has allowed temps to quickly drop btwn 15 and 25 degrees below zero this morning with Star Lake at -26f so far. Expecting plenty of sunshine today with limited mixing as ridge at all levels builds overhead. 925mb temps range btwn -16c and -20c by this aftn...supporting highs single digits to lower teens most locations. The combination of north winds and cold air over relatively warm lake champlain water...will produce a few lake enhanced clouds over parts of western Chittenden/Addison Counties today and maybe a flurry or two. Tonight/Monday...High pres is expected to strengthen over northern Maine to 1046mb by 12z Monday. Providing another chilly night with mainly clear skies and light winds. Expect temps between -10f and -25f most locations with ideal radiational cooling conditions, especially with fresh snow pack. Another dry day with warming temps under developing south/southeast flow anticipated. Highs warm back into the mid teens to lower 20s with southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 334 AM EST Sunday...Monday night, a large upper level closed low will shift southeastward over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak clipper low will move from the Great Lakes region northeastward, spreading some light snow over the forecast area Monday night through Tuesday. Considering the continental source of the airmass, moisture will be very limited and snowfall amounts will be light. In advance of the system, winds will become increasingly southwesterly, advecting some warmer air towards New England. This will allow daytime high temperatures to rebound from the short-lived cold spell this weekend, with widespread daytime highs in the teens Monday and 20s expected by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 334 AM EST Sunday...The aforementioned upper level closed low over the Great Lakes region Monday night will open into a fairly amplified trough over the Mississippi Valley Wednesday. As the shortwave energy at the base of the trough rotates over the Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday, a surface low will spin up over a favorable baroclinic zone for cyclogenesis off the coast. As the low intensifies offshore, current thinking is that the progressive upper level pattern will keep the low east of the East Coast as the system tracks northeastward along the baroclinic zone. There is a chance that the trough could dig further and gain a slight negative tilt, driving the cyclone to recurve slightly back towards the northeast coast. If this happens, Vermont could see some snow on the western fringes of the storm Wednesday/Thursday. Have kept in chance PoPs mid to late week to account for this scenario. At the same time, some northern stream energy dropping down from northern Canada could support some light lake effect snow showers Wednesday east of Lake Ontario. With the continental polar source air moving in from northern Canada, there will be very little moisture available and would expect any snow showers to be light. Once the two systems move offshore Thursday night, a ridge of high pressure will build over the eastern half of the country. Southwesterly flow into the North Country will support a gradual warmup towards the end of the week. By the weekend, temperatures could climb to 10+ degrees above seasonal normals with the chance for some lighter precipitation returning Saturday through Saturday night. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...Surface high pres building into our taf sites will result in 24 hours of vfr conditions and mainly light terrain driven winds under 5 knots. A brief period of hz with sfc vis btwn 3-5sm is possible at SLK this morning and again on Monday morning, given the calm winds and very cold low levels. Outlook... Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Evenson/Taber SHORT TERM...RSD LONG TERM...RSD AVIATION...Taber

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