Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 242351 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 651 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RECORD WARMTH TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SLOW TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWFALL AND SLICK ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY... THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. THE WINDS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ARE STILL GUSTING TO 35-45 AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 STILL BLOWING SOUTH WEST AT 60-70 KTS EXPECT SOME OF THE GUSTS TO BE ABLE TO CONTINUE MIXING DOWN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THE RAP SHOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO GUSTS 45-50 KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED. CONCERNING THE ESTF UPDATE THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM AS GUIDANCE DIDN`T CAPTURE HOW MIXED TODAY WOULD BECOME AND WAS COOLING THE AREA ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO MUCH. PREVIOUSLY AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. GETTING SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS 35-45 MPH WITH BROAD REGION OF STRONG WIND FIELDS AND WITH WELL-MIXED PBL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP LOW ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE PROMOTED GOOD MIXING AND THE DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RESULT HAS ALSO BEEN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND 70F AT KMSS. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ARE REACHED. CONCERN FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS COLD FRONT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN STRONG SWLY FLOW...EVIDENT AT 18Z IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN AND NWRN OHIO. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NEWD...AND COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 03-09Z TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN SERN MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO. FOR OUR WIND ADVISORY AREA...IMPACTS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR THOSE WITH HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS VT AS WELL...BUT REMAINING BELOW 40 MPH. GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT...BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY (AFTER MIDNIGHT). TEMPERATURE PROFILES GRADUALLY COOL...AND MAY YIELD A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 41-46F AREAWIDE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 311 PM EST MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL OFFSET DIURNAL TRENDS TO A LARGE DEGREE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPR 40S...AND WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH. KEPT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR MOS CONSENSUS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A NOR`EASTER WILL BRING VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PARAMOUNT...OF COURSE...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SEWD SHIFT IN THE 12Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z GFS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. THIS PLACES MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE. THE 12Z NAM IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND OFFERS EXACTLY ZERO PRECIPITATION AT MONTPELIER AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS GIVES ABOUT 0.20" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT MONTPELIER...AND LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF IS WELL INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND WOULD OFFER THE SNOWIEST SOLUTION FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. IT/S A BIT UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS MUCH SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AT 48-60 HOURS OUT...BUT THAT IS THE SITUATION. WE/LL BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SNOW WILL BE WET IN CHARACTER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS AROUND 13:1. SO...IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL CAUSE SLOW HOLIDAY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE AT THIS TIME...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ APPEARS A 50/50 PROPOSITION. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AND APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH A POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS, OF COURSE, FOR BETTER CONSENSUS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EST MONDAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED IN COMPARISON TO THE SHORT TERM. BY THURSDAY MORNING LOW WILL BE PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA...THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH EACH OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. FINALLY VFR EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. WINDS ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK. 00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. 00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUN...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET ON AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VTZ010>012-019. NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL/BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES MARINE...DEAL

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