Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 260856
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
456 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016
Isolated to scattered showers will move across parts of the North
Country this morning as a cold front approaches from the west. This
feature will move east of the area by early afternoon...and drier
air will move in. Despite the precipitation this morning high
temperatures will still be above normal as sunshine develops this
afternoon. No precipitation is expected on Saturday with temperatures
slightly above seasonal normals and lower humidity levels. The
next chance for precipitation will come on Sunday as a cold front
moves in from the west.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 456 AM EDT Friday...Areal coverage of showers continues to
increase across parts of the area as a shortwave trough moves
across the area. As a result...have updated the forecast to
account for this. Areas with the best chance to see these showers
will be from the Northern Adirondacks east across Vermont...
especially south of a Burlington to Saint Johnsbury line. Rainfall
amounts will be less than a quarter inch and these showers will
exit the area by midday. Drier air behind the cold front works its
way into the region on low level westerly flow. Still looking at
warmer temperatures aloft and with increasing sunshine this
afternoon...high temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
For tonight...quiet weather is expected as high pressure builds into
the region. Dew points will be falling so it will not feel as muggy
as Friday morning...plus low temperatures will be about 10 degrees
cooler with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Latest trends show system for Sunday
arriving several hours earlier associated with fast westerly flow
aloft. Otherwise...Saturday expect mostly sunny skies with comfortable
temperatures and humidity values. I anticipate scattered fair weather
cumulus clouds to develop over the terrain as temperatures climb
into the mid 70s to lower 80s depending upon elevation. Light
north/northwest winds will shift to the south/southwest by
Saturday Night. On Sunday...first ribbon of enhanced 700 to 500mb
moisture associated with weak mid level warm air advection will
shift from southwest to northeast across our region. Expect maybe
a few sprinkles...as moisture will have tough time reaching the
ground...given dry profiles. Deeper moisture and better dynamics
arrive after 18z...along with weak surface boundary in the flow
aloft. This energy/moisture will produce additional scattered
showers on Sunday afternoon/evening with maybe a few rumbles of
thunder. Overall...instability is limited with CAPE values <500
J/kg and forcing is weak with energy getting sheared out in the
fast westerly flow aloft. I will continue to mention chance pops
with main focus over the mountains and after 18z Sunday. Progged
850mb temps warm to 16c ahead of boundary...but clouds may keep
values in the upper 70s to mid 80s...very similar to yesterday
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Overall models are in good agreement
with large scale pattern across our region for next week. This
features a developing trof across the western and eastern conus
with high amplified ridge in the middle. Temperatures will be
above normal to start...but trend below normal by late next
week...with even the 0C 850mb isotherm progged to make an
appearance off both the latest 00z ECMWF/GFS. Some people are
excited about the arrival of cooler weather and are looking
forward to the upcoming winter months already.
For Sunday Night into Monday will continue to mention chance pops
with narrow ribbon of enhanced moisture and short wave energy
diving across our region with surface boundary. A rumble or two of
thunder is possible...especially northern NY around 00z.
Otherwise...qpf will once again be light and generally <0.25 with
this system. Surface high pres and weak cold air advection
develops for Monday into Tuesday with general dry conditions and
slightly above normal temps. The lack of a deep trof and limited
cold air advection behind boundary...supports only minor changes
in our thermal profiles for early next week.
Toward the end of next week a series of short waves and associated
cold front will help to carve out a deeper mid/upper level trof
across the ne conus. This support a gradually cooling trend in the
temps...with chances for scattered showers. The developing
northwest upslope flow supports the highest pops over the
mountains...especially Thursday into Friday. Progged temps start
near 15c for Tuesday...but cool to 10c by Thursday and single
digits by 12z Friday with brisk northwest winds. I will mention
temps in the 80s Tuesday...70s by Thursday...and 60s by next
Friday...with lows gradually cooling into the upper 30s to lower
50s depending upon elevation and vicinity to the warmer lake
.AVIATION /09Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Look for VFR/MVFR conditions through about
15z this morning as plenty of low level moisture exists ahead of
an approaching cold front. This low level moisture will help to
create areas of fog to help reduce visibilities. In addition...
scattered showers ahead of the cold front will be moving across
the area which will also contribute to the MVFR conditions. The
front exits the area to the east around 15z and winds go from
south-southwest to west-northwest at speeds generally around 10
knots. Its at this point that drier air moves in and VFR
conditions quickly develop over the entire area for the remainder
of the period.
Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday...
06Z Saturday through 00Z Monday...VFR/high pressure.
00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...VFR with scattered showers/MVFR
00Z Tuesday onward...VFR/high pressure.