Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281452 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1052 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL CAUSE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS WITH SEVERAL RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS TODAY, ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1052 AM EDT SUNDAY...STEADY RAINFALL, SOMETIMES MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF PERIODS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND EASTERN HALF OF NORTHERN NY. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILES. DO NOT EXPECT WIND TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE, EVEN WITH SATURATED SOILS. BUT GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. OVERALL MIXING LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND STABLE SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH WV SHOWING THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR MORE DRYING AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z, PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS VERMONT AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS IN, BUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE PRIMARY LOW SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. NAM12 AND GFS40 SHOW SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVING IN THE REGION DURING TODAY AS WELL, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW CENTER. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY SOME TSRA OBSERVED NEAR BUFFALO EARLIER SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TODAY WILL GO JUST ABOUT NOWHERE UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, AND ONLY A SLIGHT VARIATION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OBSERVED. THIS WILL PUT US ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE JUNE, YUK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 418 AM EDT SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN THE DRY SLOT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BACKED A BIT ON TOTAL RAINFALL BUT ALL IN ALL WE SHOULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD 1-2" AMOUNTS. THIS SHOULD CREATE SOME MODEST RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS, BUT CURRENTLY NOT THINKING ANY MAIN-STEM RIVERS WILL GO TO FLOOD. CERTAINLY A FEW SMALLER BROOKS AND STREAMS MAY REACH BANKFULL WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE, AND THUS WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NOW. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL TREND THOUGH THE DAY WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WE`LL SEE SOME CLEARING IN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LIKELY SOME DENSE FOG IF WINDS GO CALM. WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE YET AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MODELS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY FORECAST THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, NOW SHOWING A SOMEWHAT LATE ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SURFACE HEATING. NAM/GFS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH CAPES OF 500- 1000 J/KG AND SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SW/LI`S. PWATS DO INCREASE UP TO TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES SUPPORTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THOUGH WHICH WON`T HELP MATTER MUCH HYDRO-WISE AFTER THIS WEEKENDS RAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 334 AM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL ANTICIPATE LARGE- SCALE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...MAINTAINING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. WE/LL BE WATCHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE FIRST IS A BIT SLOWER IN 00Z NWP SUITE...AND LIKELY BRINGS STRONGEST QG FORCING THRU THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...IT APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAX. HAVE INDICATED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...MAY SEE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PEAK HEATING. VALLEY HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. AS 500MB TROUGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH NWLY WIND SHIFT AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DIMINISHING SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY MID-UPR 70S). IN ADVANCE OF NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TURNS S-SW FOR SATURDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH RETURN TO MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. MAY SEE A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PER 00Z ECMWF AND GFS...BUT STILL A BIT TOO SOON TO DISERN DETAILS. CURRENTLY SHOWING POPS 30-40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AFTN. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 20-22Z...TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN INITIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY VFR CEILINGS...WILL GENERALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH PERIODS OF IFR DRIZZLE AND LOW CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BTV/PBG/MPV ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF MODERATELY STRONG 925-875MB SELY LOW-LEVEL JET...MAINLY 12-17Z THIS MORNING...AND LLWS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. STRONG SELY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT KRUT AND HAVE INDICATED SFC WIND GUSTS 30-35 KTS THERE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 03Z MONDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 12Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR. MAY SEE A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO EARLY MONDAY (MAINLY 12-16Z). 18Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z WEDNESDAY-06Z THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. 06Z THURSDAY ONWARD...TRENDING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING LIFR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED...MAINLY SLK/MSS/MPV. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 418 AM EDT SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAS COME DOWN A LITTLE BUT WE STILL EXPECT VALUES IN THE 1-2" RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MODEST WATERSHED RISES, WITH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS LIKELY APPROACHING BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS AND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS. PARTICULAR RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER, SARANAC RIVER, AND BARTON RIVER WHICH ALL EXPERIENCED FLOODING RECENTLY. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE. && .CLIMATE... IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES: BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER, AND MOUNT MANSFIELD. A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THESE SITES, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS CURRENT AS OF 6/26. AT 7.70 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 2.22 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922. AT 7.45 INCHES, MONTPELIER NEEDS 0.91 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. AT 14.16 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 1.12 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ002>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV CLIMATE...LOCONTO

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