Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260856 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 456 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers will move across parts of the North Country this morning as a cold front approaches from the west. This feature will move east of the area by early afternoon...and drier air will move in. Despite the precipitation this morning high temperatures will still be above normal as sunshine develops this afternoon. No precipitation is expected on Saturday with temperatures slightly above seasonal normals and lower humidity levels. The next chance for precipitation will come on Sunday as a cold front moves in from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 456 AM EDT Friday...Areal coverage of showers continues to increase across parts of the area as a shortwave trough moves across the area. As a result...have updated the forecast to account for this. Areas with the best chance to see these showers will be from the Northern Adirondacks east across Vermont... especially south of a Burlington to Saint Johnsbury line. Rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter inch and these showers will exit the area by midday. Drier air behind the cold front works its way into the region on low level westerly flow. Still looking at warmer temperatures aloft and with increasing sunshine this afternoon...high temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. For tonight...quiet weather is expected as high pressure builds into the region. Dew points will be falling so it will not feel as muggy as Friday morning...plus low temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Latest trends show system for Sunday arriving several hours earlier associated with fast westerly flow aloft. Otherwise...Saturday expect mostly sunny skies with comfortable temperatures and humidity values. I anticipate scattered fair weather cumulus clouds to develop over the terrain as temperatures climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s depending upon elevation. Light north/northwest winds will shift to the south/southwest by Saturday Night. On Sunday...first ribbon of enhanced 700 to 500mb moisture associated with weak mid level warm air advection will shift from southwest to northeast across our region. Expect maybe a few sprinkles...as moisture will have tough time reaching the ground...given dry profiles. Deeper moisture and better dynamics arrive after 18z...along with weak surface boundary in the flow aloft. This energy/moisture will produce additional scattered showers on Sunday afternoon/evening with maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Overall...instability is limited with CAPE values <500 J/kg and forcing is weak with energy getting sheared out in the fast westerly flow aloft. I will continue to mention chance pops with main focus over the mountains and after 18z Sunday. Progged 850mb temps warm to 16c ahead of boundary...but clouds may keep values in the upper 70s to mid 80s...very similar to yesterday (Thursday). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 307 AM EDT Friday...Overall models are in good agreement with large scale pattern across our region for next week. This features a developing trof across the western and eastern conus with high amplified ridge in the middle. Temperatures will be above normal to start...but trend below normal by late next week...with even the 0C 850mb isotherm progged to make an appearance off both the latest 00z ECMWF/GFS. Some people are excited about the arrival of cooler weather and are looking forward to the upcoming winter months already. For Sunday Night into Monday will continue to mention chance pops with narrow ribbon of enhanced moisture and short wave energy diving across our region with surface boundary. A rumble or two of thunder is possible...especially northern NY around 00z. Otherwise...qpf will once again be light and generally <0.25 with this system. Surface high pres and weak cold air advection develops for Monday into Tuesday with general dry conditions and slightly above normal temps. The lack of a deep trof and limited cold air advection behind boundary...supports only minor changes in our thermal profiles for early next week. Toward the end of next week a series of short waves and associated cold front will help to carve out a deeper mid/upper level trof across the ne conus. This support a gradually cooling trend in the temps...with chances for scattered showers. The developing northwest upslope flow supports the highest pops over the mountains...especially Thursday into Friday. Progged temps start near 15c for Tuesday...but cool to 10c by Thursday and single digits by 12z Friday with brisk northwest winds. I will mention temps in the 80s Tuesday...70s by Thursday...and 60s by next Friday...with lows gradually cooling into the upper 30s to lower 50s depending upon elevation and vicinity to the warmer lake waters. && .AVIATION /09Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 06Z Saturday...Look for VFR/MVFR conditions through about 15z this morning as plenty of low level moisture exists ahead of an approaching cold front. This low level moisture will help to create areas of fog to help reduce visibilities. In addition... scattered showers ahead of the cold front will be moving across the area which will also contribute to the MVFR conditions. The front exits the area to the east around 15z and winds go from south-southwest to west-northwest at speeds generally around 10 knots. Its at this point that drier air moves in and VFR conditions quickly develop over the entire area for the remainder of the period. Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday... 06Z Saturday through 00Z Monday...VFR/high pressure. 00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...VFR with scattered showers/MVFR possible. 00Z Tuesday onward...VFR/high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Evenson/JMG

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