Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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712 FXUS61 KBTV 230603 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather returns to the North Country today and remains through Monday night. Low pressure passes along the Eastern seaboard from Tuesday through Thursday bringing our next chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday especially across our Southeastern zones. A surface cold front will bring some more showers on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 143 AM EDT Sunday...Gradual clearing will continue overnight from West to East across the area. Skies will be mostly sunny today and tonight with ridge of surface high pressure building over the area. Temperatures will be above seasonal normals today, generally lower to upper 60s. The quiet and dry weather will continue tonight with surface high remaining over the region. Mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures will drop back into the lower to upper 30s, near seasonal normals. A surface low will pass well north of the region across Quebec, just a slight chance for a rain shower along the international border, don`t think much will come of it. With some clouds associated with this feature, temperatures will be a bit warmer along our northern zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 343 PM EDT Saturday...Surface ridge axis will slide off the Atlantic coast as cold front associated with surface low near Hudson`s Bay skims the international border. Expect North Country to stay mainly dry, but see an increase in clouds through Monday. Min temps Sunday night in the 30s. Due to the increase in clouds, max temps Monday will be cooler in the upper 40s to mid 50s...coolest temperatures will be further north under thicker clouds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 307 PM EDT Saturday...An unsettled weather pattern anticipated for days 4 thru 7 with chances for mainly light rain showers. First round of light rainfall occurs Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday Night...with main focus along and east of the CPV. This precip is associated with developing east/southeast flow and plume of deeper moisture with pws values approaching 1.0". However...nose of 850mb jet remains to our east...along with deepest moisture progs...so anticipating mainly light rain with initial 5h vort and good upper level divergence from departing rrq of 250mb jet over eastern Canada on Tuesday evening. Qpf will range from <0.10 western cwa to 0.10 to 0.30 across the favorable se upslope regions of the Green Mountains. A brief break is anticipated late Tuesday Night...before more moisture associated with closed 5h/7h and weak surface low pres along the coast impacts our region by Weds. Latest GFS/ECMWF shows a sharp west to east gradient in the 850 to 500mb moisture fields...so anticipating heavier precip east and just clouds over the slv on Weds. The combination of easterly upslope flow at 25 to 35 knots between 925mb and 850mb and additional 5h vorticity advection will produce another 0.10 to 0.25 across our central/eastern sections on Weds. Clouds and precip will have impact on temps with warmest values near 70f SLV and much cooler with easterly flow and moisture across our eastern cwa with highs upper 40s to lower 50s likely on Weds. System is progged to lift ne of our cwa by Thursday with weak short wave ridge building across the mid Atlantic/NE CONUS. This results in strong low level waa on breezy south/southwest winds. Progged 850mb temps btwn 12-14c with 925mb temps 18 to 20c...support highs well into the 70s with a few readings near 80f. Have trended toward the ecmwf for a slower arrival of next system with the potential for showers entering our western cwa by 18z Thursday and tracking east toward evening. Thinking a slower departure of mid/upper level cyclonic on Weds...will result in a slower arrival of next system for Thursday...therefore have trimmed back superblend pops to chance at this time. Depending upon fropa timing...surface heating could produce some modest CAPE values between 200 and 600 j/kg to support a rumble or two of thunder. Just a thought as we move forward. Otherwise...a front is draped across our the region on Friday into Saturday with cooler and unsettled weather prevailing. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 06Z Monday...Conditions will be improving to VFR at all sites through the period as high pressure builds in. Some low stratus will continue to hold on at SLK/MPV throughout the overnight hours as a low level inversion sets up. Dry air associated with high pressure will see clearing skies for all sites by Sunday morning. Winds will be light and variable during the late night hours. Sunday during the morning to late afternoon hours expect the pressure gradient flow to pick up over the Saint Lawrence as winds become southwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20kts possible. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance RA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Neiles

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