Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 130547 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1247 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will approach and cross the region Monday with variable cloud cover and the chance of very light snow or light rain, mainly across the higher elevations. Behind this feature seasonable temperatures and mainly fair, dry weather are expected into Wednesday as high pressure builds across the northeast. The next chance of more widespread rain and snow showers occurs by Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak cold front crosses the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1247 AM EST Monday...Overall forecast in good shape with just some slight changes to sky cover as clear skies still persist over the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont...but that will be changing soon as thicker cloud cover moves northeast through the early morning. Still looks like any precipitation holds off until after 12z. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows.... A quiet afternoon has unfolded across our area as surface high pressure remains bridged aloft by weak troughing and variable mid to upper level cloud cover. Temperatures have responded as expected climbing into the 30s to locally near 40 in a few warmer valley spots. Winds remain light with no precipitation observed. We`re still watching a progressive shortwave trough across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes states which will amplify slightly as it progresses quickly eastward tonight in fairly robust 100+ knot westerly flow at 250 mb. After variable clouds with a few breaks this evening, expect clouds to thicken overnight and gradually lower through time, though no precipitation is expected with the boundary layer remaining quite dry. Temperatures remain a bit tricky and once again the 12Z MOS guidance appears much too cold given all the clouds. With light winds expected any advective processes will be minimal with little airmass change. Accordingly, I used a model blended solution keeping temperatures quite similar to last night offering lows in the 20s in the broader valleys and in the teens to lower 20s in the mountains. On Monday the shortwave trough traverses the area, exiting into eastern New England and offshore by early evening. While the bulk of better moisture and synoptic lift remain south of our area, enough weak isentropic lift above 850 mb combined with a brief period of left entrance region 500 mb jet support argue for a chance of light rain or snow, especially across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens. Here minor accumulations of a dusting to perhaps an inch will be possible above 1500 feet. In the larger valleys mainly dry weather is expected given drier lower levels and resultant larger dewpoint depressions. A brief flurry or sprinkle will be possible however. High temperatures remain consistent with prior forecasts - mid 30s to lower 40s. By Monday night surface high pressure builds back into the region from the Great Lakes and southern Canada, though again bridged aloft by weak cyclonic flow in the mid levels. This will keep variable clouds across the area, and with little airmass change temperatures should remain seasonably cool but not unusually so - mainly 20s. No precipitation is expected. Winds light.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1205 PM EST Sunday...Surface high pressure will be over the Northeastern CONUS for the Tuesday and Tuesday night time period. An upper level trof and embedded shortwave will track through on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Not a lot of moisture with this feature, but some cold air. Will see an increase in clouds but have not included any pops. Worth noting that we could see some flurries on the Western slopes with Froude number indicating that we`ll have blocked flow. Temperatures will be a bit below seasonal normals Tue and Tue night with max temps in the 30s with a few lower 40s and min temps in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM EST Sunday...Quiet weather continues for Wednesday with surface ridge beginning to slide east away from our forecast area and upper level ridge building overhead. During the Wed night to Thu period we will have a surface low, cold front, and upper level trough crossing the area. With surface low tracking well to our north and west, our region will be in the warm sector with moderate southerly winds becoming gusty on Thu ahead of the fropa. This feature is also a bit moisture starved, though this time we will see some light precipitation with it. This will be followed by another brief dry period for Thu night and Fri. Another more vigorous system will approach Fri night with a vertically stacked low pressure system passing Northwest of the Saint Lawrence valley on Saturday. At this time looks like Sat will be the wettest of the whole week with warm front and warm air advection. Precip type could be interesting, but right now looks like it will start as rain and transition to snow. Sunday will be cold with some Lake Ontario snow showers. Friday night and Saturday ahead of the front could be pretty breezy with some strong gusty winds. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 06Z Tuesday...Increasing clouds are expected through about 00z...but ceilings will generally be in the VFR category. After 00z ceilings will range from VFR to MVFR. Some light precipitation will be associated with the increasing clouds...especially over the higher terrain. The majority of it will be in the form of light snow with some light rain in the larger valleys. Visibilities will generally be VFR...but there may be some MVFR visibilities at KSLK and KMPV between 16z and 00z. The precipitation should come to an end by 00z. Winds will generally be at speeds less than 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson

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