Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 142335
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
735 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
After another beautiful spring day today, weak low pressure will
move east from the Great Lakes tonight and through New England on
Friday providing the forecast area with a brief period of light
valley rain and mountain snow. Dry conditions are expected for
Saturday, followed up by another round of valley rain and mountain
snow Saturday night through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected
to begin next week, along with the chance for some light snow
showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 728 PM EDT Thursday...Rain is finally making its way into
our forecast area this evening, with some light accumulations
being reported in the southern St Lawrence Valley, per the NY
Mesonet. This precipitation will continue to overspread the
remainder of our region through the evening and overnight hours.
It should fall mainly as rain at lower elevations, with a bit of
snow or rain/snow mix mainly above 1500 ft. Otherwise, light
winds will turn to the east/northeast by daybreak, and lows will
range from the mid 30s in the Northeast Kingdom/Adirondacks to
the upper 30s/around 40F elsewhere. The forecast has this
covered, so no changes were needed with this update.
Previous discussion...The forecast remains largely on track for
the end of the work week with the main feature of interest being a
weak area of low pressure lifting northeast from the eastern Great
Lakes tonight and through central New England on Friday. Models
continue to trend north in regard to a heavier axis of precip, now
forecast over the North Country and Vermont, but basin averaged QPF
remains in the 0.5-0.75" range with up to an inch possible across
the higher terrain above 2500 feet. This is associated with a warm
front lifting into the region and burst of enhanced PWATs of 0.75-1"
on the nose of a strong low/mid level jet which supports widespread
light/moderate rain through the overnight into Friday morning. At
the highest peaks above 2500 feet, colder temps will generally
support a wet snow overnight with up to 4" possible, but after
sunrise soundings show significant drying the in the DGZ which
presents the possibility of freezing drizzle as the dominant ptype,
or at least it mixing with snow. At the surface, temps will remain
warm enough on Friday to support rain, though stratiform rain in the
morning should taper off midday, with additional showers possible
Friday afternoon into Friday night as a weak trailing shortwave
looks to pass through. After sunset, rain showers could mix with
snow in some locations at the surface, but could also be freezing
drizzle as well as the DGZ remains unsaturated.
Modeled snowmelt through the next 48 hours of 0.5-1" will contribute
to runoff into area waterways with significant rises of several feet
likely on mainstem rivers. Currently flooding is not expected, but
the river with the highest possibility of reaching flood stage is
the Otter Creek at Center Rutland which will rise to bankfull late
Friday afternoon, and just below flood stage early Saturday morning.
Temps through the period remain above seasonal normals with lows
tonight near normal highs of mid/upper 30s, highs Friday in the
low/mid 40s, and lows Friday night upper 20s to low 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday will remain cloudy, but
temperatures will still be quite warm for the middle of March
with southwesterly flow in place. Maximum temperatures on
Saturday will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s, warmest in the
valleys of southern Vermont. A vertically stacked low pressure
system situated to the north of the Great Lakes will slowly
track eastward. A surface cold front with deep low level
moisture will track across our area Saturday evening into the
overnight. Widespread precipitation is anticipated, at this time
looks like a mix of rain and snow showers. It will only be cold
enough for snow showers in the higher elevations of the
Adirondacks and Greens as lows dip into the lower 30s, mainly
mid to upper 30s in the valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...Precipitation associated with low
pressure system passing to our north will continue on Sunday,
then come to an end overnight. Even with cold air advection
behind departing cold front, high temperatures should still
reach the mid to upper 40s. Some colder air sinks down over our
area from Canada from Sunday night through Tuesday, and
temperatures will be a bit cooler during this timeframe. The
weather will remain showery through Monday as it takes awhile
for upper level trough and associated vorticity advection to
finally push east of the area. Ridging will start to build in at
the end of the week and temperatures will rise back above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 00Z Saturday...Mid clouds will continue to overspread
the region through midnight tonight, with VFR to prevail through
that time. Overnight, a warm front lifting into the region will
provide widespread rain along with MVFR ceilings at all sites,
by 05-07Z. Further lowering to close to or just below IFR is
expected through the remainder of the night, before ceilings
slowly lift from any IFR sites back to MVFR by 18Z. Best chances
for IFR will be at KSLK/KMPV/KEFK. Visibility will be a tricky
forecast, mainly 4-6SM in rain and 1-2SM briefly in snow at
KSLK/KEFK, but with abundant moisture and warm temperatures
riding over a fresh snowpack, there remains the possibility if
some MVFR/IFR BR/FG from around midnight through mid-morning
Friday. There may be enough gradient wind though to inhibit
this, so have left it out of the terminal forecasts for now and
will allow the next shift to assess that potential. Winds will
be light through midnight, then increase from the
north/northeast to 6-12 kt through the remainder of the period,
though locally southeast KRUT through 12Z. In addition, a brief
period of LLWS is likely at KRUT from 06-12Z as a low level jet
skirts by just to the south.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance DZ, Slight
chance FZDZ, Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hastings/Lahiff