Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 260812 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 412 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PERSISTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST OVER THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROVIDING LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 347 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS LARGE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MODELS SHOW A LACK OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK, NEARER LIFT OF TROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 347 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT PERSISTENT LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST THEN WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING SW, ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT REBOUND ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SKIES BECOME CLEARER THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITONS NEXT WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO THE 80S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WE MOVE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND TRIES TO GENERATE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO MESH WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS WEEKEND DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE GFS MODEL HAS A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS AN UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND HINTS AT SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEREAS GFS MODEL IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUMMER-LIKE UPPER RIDGE GETS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERTURES APPROACH 90 NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY....MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS IN TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. A BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER ON THURSDAY. LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHTS AT SLK AND MPV IS ALSO LIKELY. 00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.