Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KBTV 162225
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
525 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
Low pressure departing eastward from the Canadian Maritimes will
result in decreasing snow shower and flurry activity across
northern New York and Vermont this afternoon and evening with
partial clearing. Surface high pressure will build across the
area Friday bringing drier weather conditions along with periods
of sunshine. Temperatures will remain in the 20s in most areas
on Friday, but we will then see a moderating trend with high
temperatures climbing above average and potentially into the
40s over the weekend. No significant precipitation is expected
through the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 525 PM EST Thursday...Quick update to expand area of
light snow back into the Vermont portion of the Champlain Valley
and continue this through about midnight before tapering off.
Otherwise remainder of the forecast in good shape.
Slow-moving, deep low pressure across Nova Scotia is gradually
losing its influence on North Country weather conditions this
afternoon. Our area still remains within wrn periphery of mid-
level cyclonic flow regime, but low-level drying has allowed
snow to taper off to scattered snow showers/flurries early this
afternoon away from orographically favored areas. Have cancelled
all winter weather advisories/warnings as a result. Little or
no additional snow accumulation is expected for the majority of
the region. However, will continue to see some snow showers
along the western slopes of the Green Mtns and at summit level
with favorable nwly upslope flow conditions through at least the
first half of tonight. This may allow an additional 1-2"
snowfall for the higher summits from Jay Peak to Mt. Mansfield.
With the low-mid level drying from the north, and per visible
imagery, should see some sunny breaks thru the next several
hours, especially across nrn NY into wrn VT. Temperatures will
remain in the mid-upr 20s this afternoon, so untreated road
surfaces will remain potentially slick/icy.
Will see some residual snow showers/flurries over the
Adirondacks and Green Mountains through at least the first half
of tonight, in general NW flow/upslope regime. Skies will
generally become partly cloudy in valley locations, especially
east of the Adirondacks and on the ern slopes of the Green Mtns
with low-level downsloping. Generally looking for overnight low
temperatures in the low-mid teens.
Will see a narrow ridge of high pressure building across the
region from west to east Friday into Friday night, with
generally dry weather conditions. Low-level clouds will continue
on the decrease during Friday morning, with partly to mostly
sunny skies during the afternoon. NAM model soundings suggest
some mid-upr level clouds moving in from the west Friday night,
so have indicated generally partly cloudy and tranquil
conditions. Ridge axis appears to shift east of our region by
12Z Saturday, so should see light southerly return flow develop
by daybreak Saturday. In terms of temperatures, looking for
highs in the low-mid 20s on Friday, and falling into the teens
for Friday night. With developing light south winds, may see
temperatures begin to rise before daybreak Saturday from the
Champlain Valley wwd.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Models remain in good agreement for
the synoptic pattern during the extended period which
highlights a break in active weather, relatively low chances for
precip and a trend towards warmer than normal temperatures.
Saturday starts with weak surface high pressure over the North
Country along with weak ridging aloft. By the afternoon, a weak
clipper system and shortwave trough approaches, with the surface
low passing well to our north and the trough settling over the
region Saturday night. Overall moisture is lacking with this
system, as well as forcing so the best chances for precipitation
will be across the higher terrain with some orographically
enhanced lift while little to no precip is expected in the
valleys. It`ll feel more like spring this weekend too with mean
925mb temps warming to around 0C or above supporting highs well
into the 40s on Saturday and mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Going into next week, high pressure
becomes reestablished for Monday/Monday night with more
seasonal temperatures expected, but by Tuesday a fast west-
southwest flow develops aloft with temperatures returning to
above normals levels. Generally dry conditions persist through
mid-week with one low pressure system passing well north along
the tip of James Bay Tuesday/Tuesday night, and another just
north of the international border Wednesday night into Thursday.
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18z Friday...Gradual improvement to aviation weather
conditions ongoing this afternoon, as low pressure shifts away
from the area thru the Canadian Maritimes and low-level drying
continues in NW flow. Still seeing scattered snow shower
activity at MPV/SLK/MPV/MSS with IFR vsby, but will see snow
generally ending next 1-3 hrs at the TAF sites with ceilings
trending MVFR, and locally VFR at PBG and BTV. Generally VFR
conditions expected areawide during the daylight hrs Friday.
Winds will remain NW through the TAF period, generally 8-12kts.
Outlook 18z Friday through Monday...
18Z Friday through 18Z Saturday...High pressure brings mainly
dry/VFR conditions to the region.
18Z Saturday through 00z Tuesday...Mainly VFR at the TAF
locations. Mid-level trough in west-northwesterly flow will
bring additional chances for scattered snow shower activity,
mainly across the mountains.