Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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070 FXUS61 KBTV 180350 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1050 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure will move northeast up the Saint Lawrence valley overnight. A secondary low pressure area will form south of Long Island late tonight and will move slowly eastward south of New England on Wednesday. A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be over the North Country overnight through Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the north country on Thursday and will remain over the region through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1040 PM EST Tuesday...No significant changes to the forecast needed at this point with precipitation trends progressing as expected. 700-500mb trough is elongating from the srn Great Lakes ewd across NY, with embedded shortwave trough crossing our forecast area over the next several hrs. Generally seeing steady light precipitation across nrn NY in the form of ZR/R/IP, with mainly snow across VT where thermal profiles are just slightly colder. As of 03Z, have seen 1" of snow accumulation at BTV. With primary surface low still holding together across Lake Ontario and shortwave trough translating thru, it appears we`ll have another 3-4 hrs of steady precipitation in most sections, before becoming less organized/continuous toward daybreak on Wednesday. Snow/Sleet/ice amounts will be highly variable depending on location. It appears 2-4" snowfall generally across the Champlain Valley into n-central/nern VT, with 3-6" on the eastern slopes of the Green Mtns, aided by 30-35kt 900-500mb sely upslope flow thru 09z or so. Suspect highest accumulations by morning will be along the ern slopes of the Greens Mtns from Ludlow to Brookfield. In NY, getting mix of sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain briefly at SLK with a temperature of 33F at 03Z. Will see localized icing of several hundreths of an inch. Snow/sleet generally an inch or so for Franklin/St. Lawrence counties, but locally 1-3" on the ern slopes of the Adirondacks into the Plattsburgh area. Bottom line: Despite modest accumulations, slick travel is expected overnight and for the morning commute on Wednesday with snow covered roadways. Definitely allow extra time if you plan to travel overnight thru Wednesday AM. Expecting precipitation to wind down Wednesday morning, with some light rain or snow possible Wednesday afternoon. Have lowered pops to slight chance for Wednesday night for some light rain or snow showers possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 316 PM EST Tuesday...Generally improving conditions as 500mb shortwave exits east and ridge begins to build in over the North Country. Lingering light showers focused over the high terrain will diminish Thursday and Thursday night. Cooler air will accompany high pressure with 925mb temperatures remaining in the negative single digits to single digits above 0C. As the 500mb ridge crests over the region, gradually clearing skies will result in min temperatures in the 20s to low 30s throughout the period. Max temperatures will generally range from the mid 30s to low 40s Thursday and Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 316 PM EST Tuesday...A shortwave will attempt to move into the 500mb ridge and produce a slight chance for precipitation but reinforcing ridge at the surface and limited moisture will likely lead to some clouds but not much precip Saturday into Saturday night. More significant system will develop a closed surface low Sunday night around the Ohio River Valley with large southern stream 500mb low. Moisture feeding from Carolina coast will bring PWATs around 1 inch into the North Country as negatively tilted 500mb trough moves NEwd. This will result in warm air aloft and possible mixed precip moving into the North Country from south to north late Monday. Models differ on track of primary surface low, affecting how much warm air moves into the region. But GFS and ECMWF agree on strong low level jet of 50-65kts late Monday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /04Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 00Z Thursday...Conditions will deteriorate rather quickly from VFR to to MVFR/IFR as wintry mix moves into the area in the form of snow/sleet as well as some freezing rain for New York stations. Conditions will remain around MVFR through then end of the period even after the precipitation begins to taper off after 15Z. Winds will be southerly at 5-10 knots for most of the area with KRUT seeing some gusts around 20 knots. KMSS will be the lone exception as northeasterly flow stays locked in though the period with winds 05-15 knots. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR rain/snow showers. 00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure will be over the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for VTZ006>012-017>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ029- 087. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ028- 030-031-034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/MV

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