Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301930 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO LATE SUMMER SEASONAL NORMALS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A DAMPENING SFC TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ON THE MILD SIDE (60S) AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM THEN OCCURS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ENHANCED SVR THREAT AT A MINIMUM...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS ACROSS OUR FAR SRN VT COUNTIES WHERE SOME MORNING SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF ANYTHING WOULD DEVELOP. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY WET DAY AS SHOWERS/SCT GARDEN-VARIETY STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION. NARROW PWAT AXIS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SO SOME BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER MEAN STORM MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH SHOULD LIMIT ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S GIVEN THE AMPLE CLOUDS. EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LEAVING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO MOST FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 50S IN COOLER NRN MTN LOCALES. BY MONDAY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES TO OUR WEST. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND PBL INSTABILITY OF 200-600 J/KG...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING. BLENDED 18Z 925MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM 77 TO 83 OR SO UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE PRIOR IDEA OF LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERNMOST NY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING. MAINLY DRY FURTHER EAST INTO VERMONT HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THIS AREA OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY... AND MOST OF FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OFTHE PERIOD. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET ARD/AFT 06Z SUNDAY SPREADING EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS THUS ANY SHOWERS MAY HAVE BRIEF MVFR-IFR IN VSBY DUE TO RAINFALL INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MOST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...SSW 10 KTS OR SO. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SUNDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW MARINE...WFO BTV

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