Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180732 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 332 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will hold across northern New England and northern New York today and tonight. Will see light south winds with afternoon valley high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. As Hurricane Jose moves into the waters south of New England, will see an increase in clouds during the day Tuesday, with chances for rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday across central and southern Vermont. High pressure will reestablish across the Great Lakes into the northeast Thursday and through the upcoming weekend. This will bring an extended period of dry weather and temperatures continuing well above seasonal averages for the later half of September. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 308 AM EDT Monday...Narrow zone of high pressure will remain in control today and tonight, despite ongoing squeeze play as Hurricane Jose moves nwd off the coast of the Carolinas, and as frontal system across the Great Lakes shears out to our north and west. Dealing with some patchy dense fog this morning, with 10.3-3.9um fog product highlighting the typically favored valleys east of the Green Mtns and within the nrn Adirondacks. Fog will begin dissipating after sunrise, but will hold on until 13-14Z across portions of the Winooski and CT river valleys. It will be another warm and moderately humid day. Will see afternoon highs generally 80-84F with dewpoints holding in the 60-65F range. Winds will generally be light S-SE 4-8mph. Tonight will see some high clouds from nrn fringe of Jose reaching s-central/central VT. Will also need to monitor low marine stratus, which will likely push into central/ern sections of VT (east of the Green Mtns) as se flow increases from the coastal plain. Elsewhere, some patchy valley fog is again possible overnight. Lows tonight generally in the upr 50s to lower 60s, or generally 10-12deg above the 30-yr climo average. We`ll continue to track Jose on Tuesday (please refer to NHC for latest forecast guidance). Its expected northward motion will bring a low chance (30%) of showers to Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties on far nwrn fringe of cyclonic circulation in 700-500mb layer. Skies should be mostly cloudy across s-central and ern VT (with marine stratus still likely in place), and partly cloudy elsewhere. This will impact temps as well, with highs a bit cooler across s-central VT zones. Looking for highs in the lower 70s across ern VT, and upper 70s in the Champlain Valley, and lower 80s across the St. Lawrence Valley. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Sunday...Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for latest track and guidance on Hurricane Jose. Largely referring to previous discussion with some tweaks...It still appears some fringe effects of Jose are possible, mainly in the form of rain showers reaching nwd into s-central VT during late Tuesday through possibly Wednesday midday. Latest trends bring Jose near or just inside the 40N/70W benchmark then the brakes get put on due to building ridge to our west with Jose drifting ENE then the longer range models show more looping with Jose which I won`t try to wrap my head around. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Sunday...Jose should have diminishing potential influence during this period as the main weather driver is the large Upper ridge that will be in control through next weekend. As I mentioned just earlier, most of the models want to loop Jose ESE from New England and as it loops south-southeast this just allows the Upper Ridge to build in more. Unseasonably mild and dry weather for late week and weekend with highs starting in the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s by weekend with lows in 40s/50s moderating into the 50s. Beyond this period...busy with a looping Jose or remnants of Jose and watching the tropics to see if Maria impacts the US at some later point. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Areas of LIFR/VLIFR fog will be the primary concern early this morning. Looking for 1/4SM and OVC001 at SLK/MPV thru 13Z or so before daytime heating/mixing dissipates the fog. Elsewhere, fog will be more intermittent in nature at MSS/PBG. Little, if any, fog is expected at RUT/BTV with light gradient flow from the south generally unfavorable for fog development at those locations. The daylight hours will features SKC-SCT040 conditions with weak ridging still in place across nrn New England. Could see an isold -SHRA over the higher terrain with 20% chance of pcpn. Any isold -SHRA not expected to impact TAF locations. We`ll need to monitor evolution of marine stratus across ern New England as we head into tonight. As Jose moves northward off the mid-atlantic coast, it will induce 5-10kt sely flow in the 1-2kft layer across especially ern VT. This may allow for some 500-1500ft ceilings to get into the CT River Valley and perhaps into MPV tonight. Will see potential for patchy fog again tonight, mainly at SLK, and possibly at MPV if marine stratus layer holds to the south and east. Winds will generally be light S-SE during the period. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Patchy FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Banacos

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