Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 162225 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 525 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure departing eastward from the Canadian Maritimes will result in decreasing snow shower and flurry activity across northern New York and Vermont this afternoon and evening with partial clearing. Surface high pressure will build across the area Friday bringing drier weather conditions along with periods of sunshine. Temperatures will remain in the 20s in most areas on Friday, but we will then see a moderating trend with high temperatures climbing above average and potentially into the 40s over the weekend. No significant precipitation is expected through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 525 PM EST Thursday...Quick update to expand area of light snow back into the Vermont portion of the Champlain Valley and continue this through about midnight before tapering off. Otherwise remainder of the forecast in good shape. Previous Discussion... Slow-moving, deep low pressure across Nova Scotia is gradually losing its influence on North Country weather conditions this afternoon. Our area still remains within wrn periphery of mid- level cyclonic flow regime, but low-level drying has allowed snow to taper off to scattered snow showers/flurries early this afternoon away from orographically favored areas. Have cancelled all winter weather advisories/warnings as a result. Little or no additional snow accumulation is expected for the majority of the region. However, will continue to see some snow showers along the western slopes of the Green Mtns and at summit level with favorable nwly upslope flow conditions through at least the first half of tonight. This may allow an additional 1-2" snowfall for the higher summits from Jay Peak to Mt. Mansfield. With the low-mid level drying from the north, and per visible imagery, should see some sunny breaks thru the next several hours, especially across nrn NY into wrn VT. Temperatures will remain in the mid-upr 20s this afternoon, so untreated road surfaces will remain potentially slick/icy. Will see some residual snow showers/flurries over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains through at least the first half of tonight, in general NW flow/upslope regime. Skies will generally become partly cloudy in valley locations, especially east of the Adirondacks and on the ern slopes of the Green Mtns with low-level downsloping. Generally looking for overnight low temperatures in the low-mid teens. Will see a narrow ridge of high pressure building across the region from west to east Friday into Friday night, with generally dry weather conditions. Low-level clouds will continue on the decrease during Friday morning, with partly to mostly sunny skies during the afternoon. NAM model soundings suggest some mid-upr level clouds moving in from the west Friday night, so have indicated generally partly cloudy and tranquil conditions. Ridge axis appears to shift east of our region by 12Z Saturday, so should see light southerly return flow develop by daybreak Saturday. In terms of temperatures, looking for highs in the low-mid 20s on Friday, and falling into the teens for Friday night. With developing light south winds, may see temperatures begin to rise before daybreak Saturday from the Champlain Valley wwd.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Models remain in good agreement for the synoptic pattern during the extended period which highlights a break in active weather, relatively low chances for precip and a trend towards warmer than normal temperatures. Saturday starts with weak surface high pressure over the North Country along with weak ridging aloft. By the afternoon, a weak clipper system and shortwave trough approaches, with the surface low passing well to our north and the trough settling over the region Saturday night. Overall moisture is lacking with this system, as well as forcing so the best chances for precipitation will be across the higher terrain with some orographically enhanced lift while little to no precip is expected in the valleys. It`ll feel more like spring this weekend too with mean 925mb temps warming to around 0C or above supporting highs well into the 40s on Saturday and mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 PM EST Thursday...Going into next week, high pressure becomes reestablished for Monday/Monday night with more seasonal temperatures expected, but by Tuesday a fast west- southwest flow develops aloft with temperatures returning to above normals levels. Generally dry conditions persist through mid-week with one low pressure system passing well north along the tip of James Bay Tuesday/Tuesday night, and another just north of the international border Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 18z Friday...Gradual improvement to aviation weather conditions ongoing this afternoon, as low pressure shifts away from the area thru the Canadian Maritimes and low-level drying continues in NW flow. Still seeing scattered snow shower activity at MPV/SLK/MPV/MSS with IFR vsby, but will see snow generally ending next 1-3 hrs at the TAF sites with ceilings trending MVFR, and locally VFR at PBG and BTV. Generally VFR conditions expected areawide during the daylight hrs Friday. Winds will remain NW through the TAF period, generally 8-12kts. Outlook 18z Friday through Monday... 18Z Friday through 18Z Saturday...High pressure brings mainly dry/VFR conditions to the region. 18Z Saturday through 00z Tuesday...Mainly VFR at the TAF locations. Mid-level trough in west-northwesterly flow will bring additional chances for scattered snow shower activity, mainly across the mountains. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Evenson/Banacos SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos

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