Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 302330 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOW CANCELLED FOR RUTLAND, WINDSOR, AND ADDISON COUNTIES. SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN IN NORTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND FROUDE NUMBERS INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO UPSLOPE WILL WRING OUT WHATEVER MEAGER MOISTURE EXISTS. NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NY AND WERE DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD TANK FURTHER EAST AS WELL. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND BRINGS PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BTV...MPV AND RUT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER ABOUT 12Z. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR. 12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>008- 010-016>018. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027- 029>031-034-087. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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