Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241926 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 326 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. MILDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...A GLORIOUS DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND WE SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL FEEL GREAT. ENJOY! && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...SO PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN FOR A TIME...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND OVER EASTERN VERMONT. AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION SO WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A SECOND STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. RAINFALL SHOULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ALONG WITH GOOD FORCING AND LIFT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED A HALF INCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND 36-48 HOURS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. THIS MAY ALL RESULT IN SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON OUR SOUTHERN RIVERS...AND THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT PROVIDE LIFT FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH, WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CHILLING NW FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. COME SATURDAY MORNING, GFS LAGS BEHIND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. BUT WITH GFS PWATS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHICH BOTH MODELS SUPPORT WITH SECONDARY VORT MOVING OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY MAX TEMPS REFLECT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE M20S-L30S. CLEARING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT, AS DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BUT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, SW FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING A WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS REACH THE M30S-L40S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 8KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF LLWS. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO PERIODS OF MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE REGION. POSSIBLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING. 12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY HYDRO ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT ICE JAMS. PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RELEASE SNOW MELT, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THURSDAY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS. RAIN THAT ARRIVES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABSORBED BY COLD SNOWPACK WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS. SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN MELT SOME SNOW ON THURSDAY, WITH HYDRO FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THREE QUARTERS TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWMELT ALONE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE SECOND FACTOR IN ICE BREAKUP POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS ALWAYS, INTRODUCED BY SPREAD IN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST. GFS LEADING THE WAY WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN 18Z-24Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, AND QPF INCORPORATED IN RIVER FORECASTS ARE NEARER THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST RIVER RISES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK UP OUR EXISTING RIVER ICE THAT IS 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK. EVEN SCALING BACK PRECIP FORECASTS TO SOME OF THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN NAM AND ECMWF WILL PRODUCE RISES UP TO 3 FEET WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WHICH IS MARGINALLY ABLE TO BREAK UP OUR ICE COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT FOR ICE BREAKUP AND JAMS IS IN VERMONT FROM THE WINOOSKI BASIN SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ESSEX COUNTY NY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 307 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX IS OPERATIONAL AND HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE. TECHNICIANS RECEIVED AND INSTALLED THE REPLACEMENT PARTS TODAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM HYDROLOGY...HANSON EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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