Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 220822 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 322 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY FORECAST. THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE ONGWAVE 500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA MIXED IN. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSLK. 18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...HANSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.