Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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199 FXUS61 KBTV 261932 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 332 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Surface high pressure around the southern Great Lakes region will keep the North Country dry on Wednesday with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. This ridge of high pressure will slide south as a cold front sinks southeastward from southeastern Quebec producing showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday. Unsettled weather will continue on Friday. High temperatures will be at or slightly above normal on Thursday and Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 332 PM EDT Tuesday...As the sun sets, cumulus clouds will dissipate, leaving mostly clear skies overnight as winds decouple. Patchy fog possible in favorable areas overnight into early Wednesday morning. Min temperatures will range from the mid 50s in the higher terrain to the mid 60s in the broader valleys. Morning fog will burn off in plentiful sunshine and southerly flow ahead of a cold front approaching from the southeastern Ontario. 925mb temperatures reaching 23C to 24C with surface max temperatures climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s. As the day progresses, mid to high level clouds will increase from the northwest, ahead of aforementioned cold front and PWATS begin to increase from less than one inch to over 1.25 inches late in the day in the St Lawrence Valley. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late in the day as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak frontal boundary north of the international border early Wednesday evening will be the main focus for scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development as it slowly sags southward through the North Country Wednesday night through Thursday night. Overall we`re looking at fairly weak forcing with the parent upper low well north of the area just east of James Bay, and any shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough being meager at best. That said, convective activity will be largely instability driven, meaning lower chances during the night, higher during the day/afternoon. In addition, any storms that do develop will be more the "garden variety" type and not severe with weak shear/CAPE profiles in place. Likely to see some brief heavy downpours though with any stronger cores that do develop as PWAT progs jump up to around 1.5". Lows both nights will be fairly close to normal though slightly above in the upper 50s to upper 60s Wednesday night ahead of the front, and mid 50s to lower 60s behind the front Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be right around normal in the low/mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 249 PM EDT Tuesday...Still some uncertainty on the forecast going into the end of the week and weekend but feel global models are converging on a drier forecast with high pressure over central Ontario and the Great Lakes Thursday night slowly meandering over the Northeast through the weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast comes with a strong thermal boundary to our south coinciding with a fast westerly flow aloft with possible embedded shortwaves ejecting out of convective activity over the mid-west. Feeling is that outside of a few showers across southern Vermont on Friday, we should be mainly dry through the Sunday with the boundary remaining south and temps right around seasonal normals. As we move into the early part of next week, we`ll reintroduce some low chances for showers and thunderstorms as the aforementioned high drifts off the eastern seaboard with warmer and more humid weather returning on increasing southerly flow. && .AVIATION /20Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions with sct-bkn cumulus clouds will persist through this evening. IFR/LIFR fog development possible at KSLK and KMPV mainly between 07z-12z Wednesday morning as winds decouple and skies clear. After sunrise, fog will begin to erode and VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites with mainly clear skies and southerly winds of 5-10 kts. High and mid level clouds will encroach upon the North Country from the Northwest late in the period. Outlook 18z Wednesday through Sunday... 18z Wed - 00z Thu: Mainly VFR under high pressure. 00z Thu - 00z Fri: VFR with MVFR/IFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms 00z Fri - 12z Sun: Generally VFR, chance for MVFR in showers in the afternoon Friday and Saturday. 12z Sun onward: Chance for widespread showers. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...KGM

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