Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 221439
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1039 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016
Cold front shifting east of Vermont this morning will usher in
noticeably cooler and drier air across the North Country today.
Weather will remain dry through Wednesday night with surface high
pressure in control, along with a gradual moderation in
temperatures. As the surface high shifts east of New England
later in the week, warm and humid conditions will bring chances
for showers and thunderstorms to the area later Thursday and also
for Friday afternoon and evening. Dry conditions are expected to
return for next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1039 AM EDT Monday...NW winds continue the low-level CAA
and dry air advection across the region this morning. Low clouds
will continue across much of the North Country for most of the
day, gradually becoming less numerous this evening. Temperatures
look to top out in the 60s to around 70.
Quiet tonight with strong sfc anticyclone building ewd from the
Ohio Valley across the southern tier of NY and PA. Will see some
patchy dense fog develop after 05Z in the climatological favored
valleys with good radiational cooling conditions expected. Low
temperatures generally upper 40s to lower 50s. PoPs NIL.
.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 427 AM EDT Monday...West to northwest flow aloft will be over
the area at the start of the period with gradual ridging aloft
developing by Wednesday. High pressure will be at the surface in
this pattern with this feature gradually moving eastward through
Wednesday. This will promote no precipitation...plenty of sunshine...
and a warming trend. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to
around 80...which will be about 10 degrees warmer than today. Even
warmer on Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 80s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 427 AM EDT Monday...Southwest flow aloft becomes established
Wednesday night into Thursday and this will allow moisture to
increase across the area. A cold front will be slow to move across
the area Thursday and Thursday night as it will essentially be
parallel to the upper flow. Because of this feel best chances for
any showers and storms will come Thursday night into Friday and
have only gone slight chance for Thursday afternoon. High pressure
builds in Friday night through Sunday as westerly flow aloft
develops. This will result in drier weather through this time
period. High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees above
normal...then around seasonal normals on Saturday before
increasing a couple of degrees above normal for Sunday.
.AVIATION /15Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...In post-frontal regime, lingering mix of
MVFR/VFR ceilings and HIR TRRN OBSCD through 14-15Z. Thereafter,
anticipate VFR conditions with NW winds 10G18KT or so. Will see
LIFR fog tonight at SLK/MPV after 05Z with winds becoming light
and variable areawide after 00Z Tue.
NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of
disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of
amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has
been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically
transmitted, we will lift that restriction.
Outlook 00Z Tuesday through Friday...
00Z Tue - 18Z Thurs...VFR under High pressure. Only exception
will be LIFR fog possible MPV/SLK 06-13Z each morning.
18Z Thurs onward...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers later Thursday
afternoon and evening, and again Friday aftn/eve.