Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211734 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 134 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 128 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESO VORT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOW FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE LINE WITH SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WAITING ON PUSH FROM SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL TO WEST OVER EASTERN GREATLAKES. SURFACE BASED CAPE UP TO 400-600 J/KG IN WARM SURFACE HEATING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE THREAT FOR THUNDER. AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REACHING 80 DEGREES UNDER SUNSHINE. THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS...OTHERWISE CONTINUED TO LEAVE POPS/SKIES ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS IT WELL COVERED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES. CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID 40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED. 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE- FRI. && .MARINE... AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...MUCCILLI MARINE...LAHIFF

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