Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281726 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1226 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1226 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURE TRENDS UP A BIT WITH RESPECT TO REACHING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SOONER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUN UNTIL SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS START MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY MID-AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS 2 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE AREA...THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...WILL SEE SOUTH-SSW WINDS 10-15 MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING 850-700MB WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALLOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW-NE DURING SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 2-3" OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS. OVERCAST SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID- UPR TEENS. ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 402 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 20S. THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. GFS INDICATING A DEEPER SURFACE LOW AND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING THAN ECMWF. GFS DEPICTING 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +4C WITH ECMWF BARELY ABOVE 0C. THE ANSWER LIKELY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS...AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN OTHERS. DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEADY MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IN MANY LOCALES BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. WITH UPPER TROUGH LAGGING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAVE FORMATION ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AFTER A MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...ITS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S. COLD AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES AT MSS/SLK TODAY. TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START BUILDING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SUNDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/DEAL

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