Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 260534 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 134 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 134 AM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LIGHTNING MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH, SO ONLY KEPT IN ISOLATED THUNDER. OVERALL MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PROGRESSING AS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER SO HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SATURDAY...BULK OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD TOMORROW...THOUGH IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DIE DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. QUIET NIGHT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET ANY CLEARING. MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE FOG DEVELOP IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER. BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MID 80S WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. OVERNIGHT NIGHT MIN TEMPS ALSO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THIS MORNING`S MODELS MAINTAINING GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC/LARGE- SCALE. PRIMARY IDEA WILL BE FOR A PERIOD OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM TUE/WED, FOLLOWED BY A MORE BONAFIDE THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER BY NEXT THURSDAY AS A DISCRETE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. NO EXCESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED, THOUGH WITH MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM 21 TO 25C TUE-THU HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS, WITH MID 80S IN OUR HIGHER ELEVATION COMMUNITIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SO AIR CONDITIONERS WILL LIKELY GET A GOOD WORKOUT. BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COME FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT TRENDING MVFR IN SHRA AND DEVELOPING MIST DURING AND AFTER THE SHOWERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW ENTERING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH STEADIER PCPN GENERALLY LASTING FROM 3-6 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV. SOME CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KMSS/KSLK AS SEEN IN THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. INSTABILITY ALOFT IS PRESENT ALL NIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN AND ISOLATED ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS. AFTER 12Z MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY MORNING MVFR CIGS TRENDING TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. COULD BE A SCT TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVERNIGHT TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WITH BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING BETWEEN 2-8 PM. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES EACH DAY. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT KMPV/KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/SISSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.