Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 162238 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 638 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight with slowly clearing skies and chilly temperatures with areas of frost expected. High pressure remains atop the region for the remainder of the week with fair weather expected along with mild temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 634 PM EDT Monday...Gredual clearing moving into St. Lawrence Vly and this trend will continue thru the evening. Some blocking flow may hold clouds til Midnight but then quickly dissipate thereafter. No changes to fcst, including frost/freeze headlines and min temperature forecasts. Aftn discussion...A mainly cloudy and cool day generally panned out as expected as temperatures have held nearly steady in the 40s under blustery, though gradually diminishing northwesterly flow. A few sprinkles and summit level freezing drizzle has persisted this afternoon, but with thinning moisture profiles this should wane and end through the evening hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight with skies clearing over time as winds abate to light. This will set the stage for seasonably chilly lows in the 25 to 35 degree range with customary variability and frost/freeze headlines continue for the immediate Champlain Valley where the local frost/freeze program remains in place. By Tuesday into Tuesday night high pressure will build atop and east of the area with mainly clear/sunny skies expected outside a few passing high clouds. Winds trend southerly and become a bit gusty from the Champlain Valley west by afternoon as high temperatures range through the 50s, staying milder and only falling into the 35 to 45 degree range overnight, coldest east. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday...High pressure continues to influence the North Country through the short term with only a slight chance of showers for extreme northern Vermont late Thursday into Thursday night as a weakening cold front gives a glancing blow near the international border. 12Z GFS shows very weak low level deformation associated with the front. After having stretch of dry weather in place over the North Country, may be difficult to saturate the atmosphere for more than a couple light sprinkles. This front will likely provide some clouds for the latter half of Thursday and Thursday night. Above normal temperatures will remain in place. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday...Ridging aloft and at the surface will provide quiet weather through the weekend. Temperatures remain above normal for mid to late October with a warming trend over the weekend as the surface ridge shifts slightly eastward and brings return to southwesterly flow over the North Country. The next chance for precipitation will arrive Monday into Tuesday. Both GFS and ECMWF indicate digging mid level trough, though there are timing differences along with evolution of associated surface features. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...A mix of BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR cigs will trend mainly SKC from 06Z Tuesday onward as high pressure builds into the region. Highest confidence of MVFR cigs at KSLK/KMPV/KRUT terminals through 02-03Z Tue then clearing...some Hi/Mid clouds Tue but vfr. Winds trending light overnight. After 12Z Tuesday flow trends southerly and slowly increases, especially from the Champlain Valley west. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ002-005- 009. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001. NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/SLW SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG/SLW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.