Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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441 FXUS61 KBTV 161205 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 705 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough and surface low passing northwest of the region will bring scattered snow showers to the North Country through the rest of the morning with little accumulation. A brief ridge of high pressure will bring a quiet end to the weekend on Sunday, before the pattern becomes active again next week with several chances for precipitation, especially on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 657 AM EST Saturday...Latest obs and wv/ir satellite show the snow gradually becoming more orographic this morning. Anticipate the mountain showers to continue through the mid morning before dry air filters in and we enjoy a pleasant December day with temps in the mid to upper 20s. Previous discussion...Light snow continues this morning as upper level trough and 987mb surface low continue to track northwest of the region. A weak front is providing enough lift to track a line of snow showers through into the Champlain Valley but with limited moisture little or no accumulation is anticipated in valley locations or across much of Vermont. The exception is along the western slopes where there will be enough combined synoptic and orographic lift to see slightly more organized showers through mid morning which should lead to a dusting to 2 inches or so. By mid morning the dry air will win out and show activity should come to an end. As we head into the evening hours a ridge will build into the North Country and lead to cold temps again overnight with mostly clear skies and light winds. Expect lows overnight again in the single digits above and below zero. Sunday should be fairly quiet as well as the ridge departs to our east under partly cloudy skies and temps on the cooler side with highs generally n the teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 AM EST Saturday...Increasing clouds and precipitation chances expected for Sunday night and Monday as a warm front crosses the region. Temperatures will moderate somewhat Sunday night , but it will still be a chilly night, particularly in far northern NY and VT. The bulk of the warm air arrives on Monday, which will see highs ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. There`s not much moisture with this system, so snowfall will be light; most areas will see around an inch at best. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 AM EST Saturday....The warming trend continues through Tuesday as the North Country remains under broad southwest flow. Precipitation will be likley through mid week, particularly Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front and upper trough swing across the region. Temperatures will be warm enough Tuesday afternoon for snow to mix with and/or change over to rain. Colder air spills into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with the frontal passage, turning any lingering rain showers back to snow. Snow showers will continue over the favored areas as the region is under northwest flow, but an influx of drier air will bring these to an end by Thursday. Our next system approaches from the Great Lakes later Thursday night into Friday. There are the usual model differences on the details, but current indications are low pressure will track up along the Saint Lawrence Valley sometime Friday or Friday night. The associated warm advection precip will move into the region Friday morning and continue through the day. At this time temperatures look marginal, with perhaps a bit of rain mixing in across the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River Valley. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...Generally looking at improving flight conditions to VFR by mid morning at all sites. Light snow continues at SLK and has been reducing visibilities to IFR. Anticipate IFR to continue through 13-14z before improving to VFR by 17z. Elsewhere ceilings are already lifting with MVFR at MSS and VFR everywhere else. Winds are in the process of shifting from light south/southwest to west/northwest at 5-10 knots with gusts to 15 knots between 18-00z across NY taf sites. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Deal

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