Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191739 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1239 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO LOW STRATUS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH VERY WINDY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. BRISK AND SOMEWHAT COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EWD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FROUDE NUMBER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING BLOCKED FLOW. TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH PREVAILING INVERSION LAYER WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS MOST SECTIONS...BUT WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS THE DAY GOES ON. A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS REPRESENTS LITTLE RISE FROM READINGS THIS MORNING...OWING TO PREVAILING STRATUS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM EST FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS EXTENT OF STRATUS AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND BLOCKED FLOW WILL KEEP REGION SOCKED UNDER STRATUS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AND THINK ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED. FAIRLY HIGH BUST POTENTIAL THOUGH...TOUGH TO SAY WHEN INVERSION WILL BREAK. IF INVERSION BREAKS WILL SEE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLDER NIGHT TIME TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. BEST CHANCE AT A LITTLE BIT OF SUN WILL BE SATURDAY...AS SUNDAY FEATURES SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND REINFORCING CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 228 PM EST THURSDAY...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH MORE ACTIVE AND STORMY WEATHER HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING BASE OF THIS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 40S ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED INTO REGION...DRIVEN BY INCREASING 850 MB JET WHICH MAY REACH 60-80 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DUE DOWNSLOPING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SHADOWING...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY. AS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM WILL RETURN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...STILL DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE JUST OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA AND THIS EDGE IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOME CLEARING AT KMSS...KPBG...AND KBTV SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...THUS VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z SAT-00Z SUN...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT CHANCE OF LINGERING STRATUS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR. 00Z SUN-00Z TUE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS

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