Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KBTV 031814
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
114 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016
Snow persists across much of the North Country today, with
steady snow expected across the high terrain through tonight.
Fairly quiet and seasonable weather returns by Sunday into early
next week with just a low chance of rain or snow showers on
Monday. A more active pattern develops by the middle and later
part of next week as low pressure and deeper moisture push into
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Saturday...Snow persists as mid level
shortwave moves over the North Country adding lift for more
scattered snow showers this afternoon. Steady snow expected on
western slopes and higher terrain around 1000 feet and above.
Scattered to numerous snow showers expected elsewhere. Below
1000 ft expect a dusting to 1 inch, 1000-1500ft 1-4 inches, 4-6
inches across higher terrain in NY, and 4-8 inches in the higher
terrain of VT.
temperatures struggle to increase throughout the day under cold
air advection. Maxes generally in the 30s today with min
temperatures falling into the teens and upper 20s tonight.
Clouds are expected to persist under strengthening inversion.
snow showers will diminish in coverage tonight, but persist in
the higher terrain. Still some concern for possible FZDZ as
drying occurs aloft and moisture sinks below the snow growth
zone for early morning Sunday. Will wait for new guidance before
mentioning in forecast.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM EST Saturday...Surface and upper level ridging will
be over the North Country on Sunday and region will have dry
weather through Sunday night. Surface and upper level trofs will
approach from our West and bring some light rain and snow
on Monday, any accumulations will be light. Temperatures will
run a couple degrees below normal for Sunday through Monday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 246 AM EST Saturday...Monday night and Tuesday will
feature some dry weather as another ridge briefly builds over
the area. Tuesday looks to be the day with the best chance for
any sunshine. The weather pattern will become more unsettled
from Tuesday night onward with several chances for light rain
and snow showers once again. GFS and ECMWF still not quite
coming into line from Day 4 onward. Have chance for
precipitation mentioned every forecast period, though still lots
of uncertainty. Right now best chance for precipitation will be
Thursday and Thursday night as a surface low crosses just north
of our forecast area along with its associated fronts. The GFS
is faster than the ECMWF with this feature. Both models though
show precipitation lingering with lots of wrap around moisture
headed into the weekend with low pressure very slowly departing
Eastern Canada. Temperatures will trend colder next weekend.
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Widespread MVFR conditions persist across
the North Country as combination of northwest flow and plentiful
moisture continue to produce snow showers. Periods of IFR
possible in snow showers. While areal coverage of snow showers
will gradually decrease, focusing around the higher terrain and
western slopes, expect MVFR conditions to persist into Sunday
morning. All but SLK and MPV expected to improve to VFR in the
mid to late morning hours, but low VFR deck of clouds will
persist under strong inversion.
Snowfall totals throughout the period will generally be a
dusting to two tenths of an inch in broad valley locations:
MSS, PBG, BTV, RUT. MPV and SLK can expect about a quarter inch
to three quarters of an inch through 18Z Sunday.
Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...
18Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...Trending mainly VFR with high
pressure building into the area.
12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday...trending BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR cigs
with scattered areas of light rain or snow, mainly at KMSS/KSLK.
Brief IFR possible at these terminals with this activity.
12Z Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday...VFR/high pressure.
06Z Wednesday onward...trending MVFR/IFR in rain/snow showers.