Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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455 FXUS61 KBTV 210527 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 127 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure across Quebec and northern New England will result in a chilly and mostly clear night, and continued fair weather for much of the day Sunday. Some areas of frost expected this morning across the Northern Adirondack region, as well as portions of north-central and northeastern Vermont. Will see a gradual increase in clouds later Sunday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. This warm front will bring overcast skies and periods of rain during Sunday night into Monday morning. Rainfall amounts between one-third and one-half inch are generally expected across the North Country. Tuesday will see a brief return of surface high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 127 AM EDT Sunday...Mostly clear skies under high pressure and light to calm winds have allowed temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s so far. Looking for lows early Sunday morning ranging from the upr 30s to lower 40s in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, and generally low-mid 30s east of the Green Mtns and in the northern Adirondacks. Will see temperatures rise quickly on Sunday, as winds turn into the south around 10 mph. Afternoon highs will be warmer than the past couple of days, generally ranging from the upr 60s to lower 70s. Anticipate filtered sunshine as upr- mid level clouds spread ewd from the Great Lakes with increasing mid- level WAA regime moving in. That said, there is good amplification of a shortwave ridge across NY/New England 700-500mb layer during the daylight hrs...and a lack of low- level convergence. Thus, kept conditions dry Sunday, with just a slight chance of a rain shower moving into St. Lawrence/Franklin Co toward 23Z (7pm) Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Will see an unsettled period of weather, with well-defined region of 850-700mb WAA and isentropic lift moving enewd across our region during Sunday night thru Monday morning. Rain showers should overspread the region from W-E during Sunday night, per consensus of mesoscale and global model suite. We have increased PoPs to near 80 percent for the pre- dawn hrs Monday based on latest trends in NWP guidance. Should see shower activity gradually move out from west to east Monday morning with decreased forcing for ascent and drier deep-layer RH values into Monday aftn. All in all, looking for 0.33-0.50" precipitation, likely highest in the nrn Adirondacks with S-SW flow regime setting up. Lows on Sunday night generally 45-52F, with Monday`s highs in the low- mid 60s from the Champlain Valley wwd, and in the low-mid 50s with lingering low overcast expected for ern VT. Winds will increase from the south during Sunday night, generally 10-15 mph. We may briefly see Lake Wind Advisory criteria on Lake Champlain from 07Z-14Z Monday, with south winds across the broad lake of 15-25 kt. Generally quiet Monday night with variably cloudy conditions. Additionally, SW flow regime will keep temps on the mild side, generally in the mid-upr 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday looks to be a quiet start to the long term period after the passage of a cold front. Winds remain southwesterly behind the front so little change in temperatures lead to an rebound back into the 70`s for the day. From here the models disagree but overall show a more unsettled period into the weekend. The ECMWF shows a coastal low moving northeast into New England bringing precipitation all the way into the counties east of the Green Mountains, while the GFS keeps the low further out to sea and keeping a precip far to the east of the CWA. Meanwhile, both show a positively tilted upper trough associated surface low over the midwest with the GFS quickly closing off the upper low by Wednesday morning. This slows the progression of the system while the ECMWF doesn`t show the low closing until closer to Thursday. In both cases, this leads to an extended period of potential showers for Wednesday through early Saturday morning as tracks northeast past through the region and east out of the area. Both models have very different solutions but come to the same conclusion with chance to likely PoPs each day. Either way, it should be a wet end to the week. High temperatures in the long term will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s, while lows will be in the 40s to 50s. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions will persist Sunday into early Sunday evening. Mostly clear skies will see increasing clouds becoming SCT-BKN 150-250 this morning and mid-day, then gradually increasing and lowering through afternoon but still VFR. Any showers will largely be confined to Northern NY after 22Z. MVFR conditions possible in showers after 02Z/Mon at KMSS and KSLK. Light to calm winds this morning will become SE 5-10kts during the daytime hours. Outlook... Monday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-004- 006>008-010. NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ029>031-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/KGM SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...KGM

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