Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 101745 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1245 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1246 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MODELS STRUGGLING THIS AFTERNOON HANDLING THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MY PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ONE MOVING FORWARD COULD BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, BUT ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING OUR BELOVED LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF STILL SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD. SO FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING INCREASING CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS SHOWED DECREASED SURFACE VISIBILITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO ASSUME THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 1.5" THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FOR TONIGHT, AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TREND DRIER, BUT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE-MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY ROUNDING OUT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF. VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL HELP TO ENHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND SOME CATEGORICAL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WHERE THESE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORABLE. THURSDAY NIGHT POPS LOWER AS WE LOSE FAVORABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THOUGH. ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND OUR REGION WILL BE THE COLDEST IT HAS BEEN YET THIS WINTER. WITH PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HAVE A POLAR VORTEX MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...850 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT -30 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION WILL SEE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW SQUALLS ON TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD. AFTER TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS PLUMMET TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE COLD...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATER SUNDAY WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE REGION...POLAR VORTEX SLIDES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. AS GRADIENT PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP AS FAR AS THEY DID SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK START OUT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FROM MONDAY ONWARD...BOTH SHOWING A SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ONLY HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS GREATER EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WITH A LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO A MIX OF MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, EXCEPT KRUT WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. SNOW ACTIVITY WANES TONIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR BUT REMAINS PREVALENT AT KSLK. IFR VSBY SHOULD CONTINUE THERE WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS LIFTING TO VFR VSBY, BUT REMAINING MVFR IN REGARDS TO CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. 12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...LAHIFF

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