Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 050458 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1258 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR (AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK. SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE. 00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.