Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310232 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1032 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1029 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS HAVE EXITED WELL EAST OF VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DRYING WSW-W FLOW IN PLACE. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. DESPITE SOME LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...RIVER VALLEYS THAT SAW RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A RATHER FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKING UP SPACE OVER HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A PLEASANT PARTLY CLOUDY SUMMER DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASON AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CU UNDER WSW WINDS ALOFT. FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF FURTHER COOLS TEMPERATURES ALOFT SO SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SOME OF THIS IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM OVER MN AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 50S TO MID 60S. SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER TROF ROTATES THROUGH THOUGH TIMING GETS A BIT FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ONWARD. MODEL CAPE FIELDS RUNNING 500-1000 J/KG AS FURTHER COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT AND 500 TEMPS FALL TO -16C SO LOOK FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NOAM WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER IN SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE...HIGHS STARTING IN LOWER 80S FOR SUN/MON THEN INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MVFR/IFR BR/FOG DEVELOPING AT BOTH SLK AND MPV. AS THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH ON FOG AT BOTH SITES BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH RAINFALL AND WINDS AT 900MB AROUND 20KTS EXPECT THE OVERALL THREAT OF FOG TO BE LIMITED AT SLK. AT MPV EXPECT A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH NEARLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY EXPECT THAT MPV WILL SEE IFR FOG WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT MPV TO START TO GO DOWN BY 06Z AND TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY 07Z TO IFR CONDITIONS. TOMORROW BY DAY BREAK THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH MODERATE 7-10KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SAT - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK 06/12Z SAT. 12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...JMG/SLW AVIATION...DEAL/SLW

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