Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 140906 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 506 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. AREAS OF FROST WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 505 AM EDT SUNDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 505 AM EDT SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ...EXCEPT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS ...ESPECIALLY SARANAC LAKE (KSLK). EXPECTING AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT AND MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THUS...HAVE PUT UP A FROST ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY. HAVE LEFT OUT THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AS WELL AS WESTERN VERMONT AND MOST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 60S...SO EXPECT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL NOT GET ANY FROST...BUT SOME ISOLATED FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A DRY DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z TUESDAY... SO EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 334 AM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY RIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR AT BTV/RUT/MPV/MSS...VFR/MVFR AT PBG...AND MVFR/IFR AT SLK. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AROUND 18Z OR SO) WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. SKC EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 7-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT PBG WITH A LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG AT SLK AND MPV. 00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-012-016. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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