Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 172039 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED, MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CWA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE BAY OF FUNDY PRECIPITATION WILL FILL BACK IN AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL ON DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. INITIALLY, PRECIP WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD BUT BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS OFF OUR LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF INDICATING SUB-CRITICAL TO BLOCKED FLOW. OVERALL QPF ISN`T TOO TREMENDOUS THOUGH SO THINKING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 4" ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT...WHICH WILL SEE MORE OF A DRY SLOT. AS NIGHT FALLS, AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTS KMPV AND KSLK. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM/NEILES

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