Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160801 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 401 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather is expected across the North Country today and continuing into Thursday as high pressure builds moves down from Canada. Cooler temperatures will exist today with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s...but temperatures quickly return to seasonal normals both Thursday and Friday. A low pressure system approaching the area on Friday will spread showers and a few thunderstorms back into the region...especially Friday afternoon and night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 401 AM EDT Wednesday...Cold front has been slow to move into the area early this morning. Front is roughly just east of a Montreal to Potsdam line. A swath of clouds is also associated with the front and this has helped to limit the fog potential in this area. However...further to the east where low level moisture existed from yesterday`s rain and clear skies/light winds were in place there has been areas of fog. Locally dense fog has also been observed. This will likely remain in place through about 800 am before mixing takes place and front begins to make a better push eastward across the region. Drier air is lagging a bit behind the front so the best chances for sunshine will be this afternoon. Cold air advection will keep highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area. High pressure builds into the region tonight and we should see clear skies and light winds for all areas. Any fog potential will likely be confined to the favored locations as drier air may win out overall. Should be the coldest night of the week with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s...but in the upper 30s at Saranac Lake.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 401 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure remains over the area on Thursday and this day has the makings of the best day of the week. Should see plenty of sunshine...light winds...and temperatures rebounding back into the 70s with a few 80 degree readings in the larger valleys. Area remains in northwest flow aloft Thursday night with ridge axis remaining to the west. This should cause a delay to the precipitation that is associated with an upstream trough of low pressure over the Upper Midwest. Will therefore keep Thursday night dry and its not until Friday afternoon for the upper ridge axis to move east of the area. Its at this time that southwest flow aloft develops and spreads moisture into the region. Have slowly increased precipitation chances Friday morning and then bring better chances into the region Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will once again be in the 70s to around 80.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 401 AM EDT Wednesday...Guidance continues the trend of consistency between models of the last few days after being worlds apart. The other consistency is the slower progression of the northern plains system eastward as much of the energy is rotating NNE across northern Great Lakes and Ontario but eventually pushes east into and through FA. By this forecast period (Friday night) the occluded front is pushing into the CWA with the best lift/moisture moving across VT. By 12z Sat the front is east of region but upper level trof is still back across Great Lakes with several spokes of energy still to rotate across the region. Timing and daytime heating/instability means another threat of SHRA/TSRA Sat aftn/eve with the final upper level trof passage during Sunday morning. There still may be enough moisture and instability for some orographic showers Sunday. Ridging at all levels approaches Sunday night and then slides southeast by late Monday-Monday night. A rather nice late summer day with highs above seasonable ...in the lower 80s. Another trof digging into the Northern Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes (sound familiar) drops in on Tuesday with SW flow at all levels behind the ridge and ahead of this system. This shortwave/cold front appears more vigorous and its just a matter of timing. Very Slight timing differences with Tue ngt/Wed AM time frame. Moderate instability expected with temps in L-M80s and 60s dewpoints and heights will be falling thus a chance of thunderstorms late (esp in NY). Decent gradient looks like enough shear that possibly strong to severe depending on timing.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...A wide range of categories is expected across the area through about 12z as low level moisture will produce low clouds and fog at KSLK...KPBG...KBTV...and KMPV. At these sites there will be periods of IFR to VLIFR conditions while KMSS and KRUT remain VFR through 12z. A cold front is moving down from Canada and should move across the area between 08z and 13z. Once this does the winds will turn to the northwest and drier air will start to move in...which will allow for any low clouds and fog to dissipate. Thus all sites after 13z will be in the VFR category through the remainder of the period. Winds will pick up later this morning from the northwest with gusts in the 10 to 15 knot range before tapering off around sunset. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Evenson

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