Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271132 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 732 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 728 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING FROM SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. A LINE OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOISTURE LIMITED HOWEVER AND TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOESN`T ARRIVE TILL WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMP FORECAST A TRICKY ONE...AS FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14-16C THIS MORNING TO 11-14C BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6 TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING OUT OF THE 60S. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AGAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. 06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE LIKELY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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