Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251932 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 332 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO OUR REGION. THIS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 332 PM EDT MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATER AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST ARE SLOW TO MOVE NORTH IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION NOT MOVING IN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS... DUSTING TO TWO INCHES...WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ON GRASSY SURFACES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT MOST OF THE SNOW. ON TUESDAY...THE MORNING HOURS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES SO AGAIN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES. LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND PRONOUNCED DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH HELPING TO BRING THE RAIN TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 411 AM EDT MONDAY...850MB FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED E-W FROM LAKE ONTARIO EWD ACROSS SRN VT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING HRS TUESDAY...AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/ERN SECTIONS OF VT. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG WITH WAVE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL PA/SRN TIER OF NY DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH POPS (90-100%) SRN HALF OF CWA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH (40-60% ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER). ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH 850MB TEMPS -1C ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND AS COLD AS -5C TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PER 00Z GFS. SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATIONALLY DEPENDENT SNOWFALL WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY EARLY TO MID MORNING HRS ON TUESDAY. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE ABOVE 1000FT (1-2" OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN GREENS). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS AS WELL (COATING TO 1")...DEPENDING ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 30S EARLY TUESDAY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MAY SEE SOME MINOR TRAVEL SLOWDOWNS FOR HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. STRONG N-S GRADIENT IN QPF EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH 0.25 TO 0.30" ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VT...AROUND 0.15" AT BTV...AND GENERALLY <0.10" CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH DRIER PBL AND LESSER FRONTAL FORCING. THE LARGE-SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS SEWD AND 700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST OF VERMONT. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION END DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS TUESDAY WITH DIMINISHING POPS AND PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE LOW- MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERALL TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL (AROUND 15DEG BELOW AVG). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 411 AM EDT MONDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WX AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH COOL/DRY NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD -- ALONG WITH MEAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO -- WILL REINFORCE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 40S ON WEDNESDAY...THEN GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FROM A FIRE WX PERSPECTIVE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES (GENERALLY <25%)...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDY PERIODS THAT WOULD BE OF GREATER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW MOVING LOW MOVING NEWD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST TO PRECLUDE ANY IMPACT...SO HAVE KEPT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAY 7 (SUNDAY). && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH 06Z WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. AT THE SAME TIME VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. LOOKING AT RAIN AND SNOW FROM 06Z TO 15Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. KMSS WILL BE EXCLUDED FROM THE ABOVE SCENARIO AS THEY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THUS REMAINING IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - 00Z WED...RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. 00Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES

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