-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
962
FXUS61 KBTV 250739
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
339 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A front pushing through the area will provide cooler and less humid
conditions for the rest of the week. Behind the front, expect a few
days of dry weather before rain chances increase Thursday night
onward. Friday night and Saturday will see some heavier showers and
thunderstorms, some of which may produce locally heavy rainfall.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 339 AM EDT Wednesday...A cold font will continue to drop
southward through our forecast area today. As of early this
morning, some light showers are ongoing over northern NY along
the front, though loss of diurnal instability has weakened
showers considerably over the past few hours. The remainder of
the day will be marked by relatively cooler and drier air
arriving from the north, which will be a welcome relief from the
early week record setting heat. 850 mb temps today will drop
over our forecast area from around 19C to around 10C, and
surface highs will be in the low to mid 80s. The exception will
be lower elevations of southeastern Vermont, where it will take
longer for the cooler air to arrive and highs will approach 90.
In addition to cooler temperatures, dewpoints will drop into the
50s by this afternoon/evening, which will mark a noticeable
decrease in mugginess.

Temperatures tonight will reach into the 50s to around 60 for our
forecast area.  Thursday will start off dry as we are on the
southern periphery of Canadian high pressure, but chances for some
scattered showers will increase going into the evening as a boundary
approaches from the west.  High temperatures Thursday will be in the
70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 339 AM EDT Wednesday...A period of active wx is anticipated
acrs our cwa associated with a stationary boundary draped somewhere
over the NE CONUS or southern Canada. Latest 00z guidance conts to
suggest a large spread in the position of this boundary and
associated placement of the heaviest qpf, which ranges from near
Montreal (northern extent) to southern VT into the High Peaks
(southern extent). The latest 00z GEFS and EPS mean qpf shows >2.0
axis from extreme northern NY into parts of central/northern VT,
with focus for heaviest qpf near the International Border.
Meanwhile, individual deterministic runs of the NAM12/ICON and GFS
have heaviest axis acrs our northern cwa, while ECMWF/CMC and UKMET
are along or just north of the International Border. Either way have
coordinated with WPC and their new DAY3 ERO has a small slight risk
(2 out of 4 threat level), indicating at least a 15% probability of
exceeding flash flood guidance within a 25 miles of a point. Given
large spread in qpf placement and inconsistency in run to run model
guidance we wl continue to mention potential in HWO attm.

Synoptic scale setup shows a sharp thermal and moisture boundary
developing acrs the NE CONUS late Thursday into the upcoming
weekend, while several disturbances aloft ride along this front. In
addition, an un-seasonably strong 120-140 knot jet max is progged to
be located over southern Canada, helping enhance strong upper lvl
divergence, while promoting deep layer upward vertical motions above
an area of favorable 850mb to 700mb fgen forcing. This is within a
region of pw values btwn 1.50 to 1.75", which is 125% to 175% of
normal for late June acrs northern NY into VT. Furthermore, sounding
analysis off the NAM/GFS both show warm cloud depths of 11,500 to
12,500 feet, while a favorable 850mb jet of 30 to 40 knots is
helping to enhance llvl moisture convergence acrs portions of our
cwa. Given the above ingredients the potential for minor river and
isolated flash flooding wl need to be watched closely late Friday
into Saturday acrs portions of our region. Still have uncertainty on
the placement of heaviest qpf and once that becomes better modeled
confidence in potential impacts wl improve. Rainfall rates wl be
mainly driven off deep synoptic scale forcing, as sounding data
suggests limited elevated instability. Better elevated instability
to enhance rainfall rates arrives on Saturday associated with waa.
Given position of potential boundary, temps wl be on the cooler side
of normal with highs mid 60s to lower 70s on Friday and in the upper
60s to mid 70s on Sat. Lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 339 AM EDT Wednesday...A warming and drying trend is
anticipated on Sunday into Monday, before more showers and
thunderstorms are likely on Tues associated with another boundary.
Developing southerly flow associated with moderately strong waa wl
advect progged 925mb temps into the 22-24C range by Monday,
supporting highs back into the mid 80s to lower 90s with some
humidity. This looks to be the warmest day in the long term portion
of the fcst. A series of boundaries swing acrs our cwa late Monday
into Tues with increasing chances of showers/storms. Depending upon
timing of cold frnt and how instability/shear parameters interact a
few stronger storms wl be possible, given the heat/humidity ahead of
this system. However, it wl depend upon if system arrives in pieces
or if we can get upper lvl energy to arrive with best llvl sfc
convergence and interact with favorable shear and instability
parameters acrs our fa. Given developing southerly flow and
increasing 2m dwpts, expect much above normal overnight lows on
Monday night. Temps with more clouds/precip hold mostly in the 80s
on Tuesday, before cooler and drier air arrives for the middle of
next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
over the next 24 hours with generally light winds. The
exceptions will be KSLK and KMPV, where some br/fg has already
developed and will result in temporarily reduced visibility and
ceilings through 10Z. After 10Z, expect fog to lift and
conditions to improve to VFR areawide. Winds will start off
light and variable, then trend northwesterly 5-10 knots after
12Z.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Duell