Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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005 FXUS61 KBTV 231728 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 128 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather returns to the North Country today and remains through Monday night. Low pressure passes along the Eastern seaboard from Tuesday through Thursday bringing our next chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday especially across our Southeastern zones. A surface cold front will bring some more showers on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 128 PM EDT Sunday...Clear skies and light winds prevail for the rest of today with temperatures warming into the 60s. Building ridge of surface high pressure continues tonight with a surface low passing well north of the region across Quebec, increasing clouds for portions of the forecast area. Temperatures generally falling into the 30s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast area is split between 500 mb northern stream closed low moving east out of northern Quebec and closed low moving east across the gulf states, with zonal westerlies. East/west oriented surface ridge gets suppressed to the south as a weak cold front trailing from the Quebec low crosses the border. Limited moisture and upper forcing with this feature so no precipitation forecast, but expect clouds along the front to limit sunshine in the north. Cooling of 850 mb temps along the canadian border near 0 C, and +3 to +5C in the south, to support max temps near 50 north to near 60 south. By Monday night southerly low level flow reasserts itself and the front retreats northward. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...The southern stream low will be the dominant feature early in the extended period as it moves up the Atlantic coast and across southern and eastern New England Wednesday and Thursday. Low level easterly flow ahead of the low on Tuesday will spread moisture and cooler temperatures into New England, with cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 in southeast portion of the forecast area, and warmer near 60 to the north and west. Chance for showers begin Tuesday as the low approaches, with likely POPs Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low passes. A break Wednesday night and much of Thursday as the low pulls away and a cold front approaches from the west, and the region finds itself under shortwave ridging. Strong south wind ahead of the front and warm air advection will boost Thursday max temps into the 70s. Front is a little delayed from guidance we were looking at this time last night, with timing now late Thursday evening/overnight periods. Still enough residual instability from daytime heating to support mention of thunder with showers that will accompany the frontal passage. GFS is a little more progressive, pushing the front east of the forecast area by midday Friday, while ECMWF is slower with showers lingering. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions prevail with generally light winds, except in the St Lawrence Valley with gusts 15-20kts in channeling effects. Clouds increase from the north overnight, but generally expected to remain VFR cigs. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...KGM/Neiles SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Hanson AVIATION...KGM

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