Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311745 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 145 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED AND VERY MINOR LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1037 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST, BLENDING IN MOST RECENT HI RES MODEL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY AND GFS FOR TONIGHT. END RESULT LOWERS PRECIP TOTALS TODAY IN MORE SHOWERY PRECIP BUT BUMPS UP A QUARTER INCH OR SO DURING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ADJUSTED COOLER WITH FULL CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF AND HAVE LOST HIGHER GUSTS. SOLID AREA RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN SHOWERS. CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN A GOOD BET HOWEVER AS ALL AREAS WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO RIDE ALONG BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS. A LEFTOVER MCV IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AND WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. PW ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGHER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0" GETTING SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST AND STABLE AIRMASS ACRS OUR CWA THRU TONIGHT...SUPPORTING OCCASIONAL RAIN...BUT NOT THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT OR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WE SAW ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH NOSE OF 35 TO 45 KNOT 85H JET COUPLET WITH RRQ OF 25H JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HELPING PRODUCE DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. IN ADDITION...STRONG LLVL THETA E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LVL FGEN FORCING WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. ALL THIS SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH ANOTHER 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES LIKELY THRU 12Z MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 2.0 INCHES. GIVEN POSITION OF BOUNDARY AND PROGGED DEEPEST 850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE PROFILES...THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RATE OF RAINFALL AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...THINKING OUR RIVER BASINS WILL HANDLE THIS PRECIP WITH NO PROBLEMS...MAYBE AN ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE/MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING ISSUE OR TWO THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH MUCH LESS QPF ANTICIPATED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE IN THE U40S MTNS TO L/M 50S ELSEWHERE...SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL S/W`S MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING THIS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY WL BE DIFFICULT IN THE PROGRESSIVE SW FLOW ALOFT AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES UPSTREAM. SFC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE 925MB TO 850MB FRONT WILL BE SLANTED BACK TOWARD OUR CWA. HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THINKING THE COMBINATION OF DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. NAM SHOWS BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED QPF ACROSS OUR REGION THRU 15Z MONDAY...WHILE GFS INDICATES AN ALL DAY RAIN LIKELY...WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD PRECIP WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR CWA. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM A 0.50 NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO LOCALIZED 2 INCHES IN SPOTS OVER THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT. ONCE AGAIN THE RATE OF RAINFALL AND DURATION SHOULD LIMIT ANY MAJOR HYDRO CONCERNS. SHARP RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME APPROACHING BANKFULL POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT RIVERS...AND MAYBE THE AUSABLE IN NEW YORK. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AS MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY 18Z BASED ON PROGGED RH PROFILES. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S TO NEAR 70S ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE OVERCAST. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 419 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS DECREASES WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER- LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 40S AND 50S. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE WEAKER AND DRIER WITH REGARDS TO THIS FEATURE...BUT FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...UNSETTLED AVIATION WX NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH ABUNDANT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED/PERIODS OF IFR IN RAINFALL. FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE STEADIER/MODERATE INTENSITY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY OCCUR BETWEEN 03-12Z TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS...WHICH WILL HAVE MORE INTERMITTENT RAINFALL/SHOWERS NORTH OF HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. FLIGHT RULES WILL VARY...BUT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCALLY IFR CIGS AT RUT THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AT SLK/PBG/MPV/BTV/RUT ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-15 KTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST-ENE AT 5-10KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS -RA. MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. 12Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY...SCT -SHRA SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBY. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RETURNING VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD (1 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST) WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY HIGH PEAKS REGION OF THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. THIS REGION HAS ALREADY SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING...WITH INBANK RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ON THE NEW HAVEN AND WINOOSKI AT MPV OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...THINKING THE RATE OF RAINFALL WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH MOST PERSIST SHOWERS/HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RUNOFF WITH SIGNIFICANT INBANK RISES EXPECTED ON MANY RIVERS. BUT WITH THE RECENT DRY SPELL NO LARGE STEM RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ005>012-017>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...BANACOS HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV

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