Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211830 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 230 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic cold front will push across the region tonight with scattered snow showers, though only minor accumulations are expected. Cold and blustery weather returns for Wednesday before temperatures begin to moderate from Thursday onward into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...Well advertised arctic cold front to sweep through the area tonight with a brief period of scattered to perhaps numerous snow showers occurring along the boundary, especially across northern counties. BTV SNSQ perhaps still showing best threat of heavier shsn or squalls to occur in these areas as well, especially along the intl border where mesoscale output suggests formation of a small mesolow traversing west to east from near CYOW to CYSC in the 01-08Z time frame. Indeed a quick look at latest satellite imagery shows potential initiation of this feature immediately north of Georgian Bay as of 19Z. Thus prior forecasts of solid chance to likely pops (40-70%) across the north, and slight to low chance pops south still looks right on track. Given quick moving nature of this system only minor snowfall is expected with a dusting to perhaps an inch in the northern valleys and up to 2 inches in higher terrain. Negligible amounts expected south. Temperatures a bit tricky, holding relatively mild in the 30s before readings fall sharply into the teens/single digits late as front clears well east and south. This could create some areas of black ice where moisture lingers on area roads. Any lingering snow showers/flurries Wednesday morning to end by afternoon as strong arctic high pressure builds into the region. Skies should trend partly to mostly sunny in all areas by mid to late afternoon under persistent and gusty northwesterly flow into the 20 to 30 mph range. This will keep quite the chill in the air as daytime temperatures hold nearly steady in the 12 to 22 range. Blustery flow then gradually abates by Wednesday night as core of surface high nears. Generally clear skies are expected with chilly overnight lows in the positive/negative single digits...perhaps a spot reading near 10 above in warmest valley locales. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday....Winter`s final charge should be in full force as an arctic airmass will be in place over the region on Wednesday night. Expect the coldest temperatures of the week to be Wednesday evening as the high pressure crests overhead. Excellent radiational cooling will see temps drop into the single digits over the North Country with the near lake areas a few degrees warmer in the low teens. High pressure continues during the day on Thursday with quiet weather conditions expected. The dry air aloft should mean that we should see some mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with below normal temps in the 20s. The cold air starts to exit the region Thursday night as the high pressure dives south towards the DelMarVa peninsula. We should see overnight lows in the single digits for Vermont while the warm air starts creeping back in over Northern New York. Lows across the Saint Lawrence should be in the lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...The models have come in slightly better agreement for a Friday solution. The departing high pressure dives south however the upper level ridge amplifies. The result is that the northern stream disturbance has weakened and a warm front never reaches the North Country. Two things here, one, that means we`d be looking at some sort of a mixed bag with regards to precip and two, as the ridge amplifies the whole system could end up south of the area and the northern tier of counties see little to no precip at all. Given its still 72 hours out I dont have great confidence in what situation plays out. So I`ve opted just continue the mention of rain changing over to snow at some point over the weekend. Coming out of the weekend, there will be another cutoff upper level system that could bring additional mixed precipitation type concerns as a warm nose creeps up the Saint Lawrence. Overall temperature trends are that the general source air becomes more Pacific than arctic and so temp should be on the rise back to near normal for late March. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Mix of mainly BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR through through 12Z Wednesday, trending gradually SCT/SKC VFR thereafter. Arctic cold front to sweep through area in the 02-08Z time frame with a brief period snow showers/squalls and IFR conds, especially at northern terminals. Best estimation on frontal passage is 02Z at KMSS, 03Z KSLK, 04Z KPBG, 05Z KBTV and 06Z KMPV with most concentrated area of shsn occurring within an hour or two of these times. Winds generally light south/southwesterly through 02Z, trending sharply northwest 8-16 kts with gusts into the 20-30 kt range after frontal passage and continuing through the end of the forecast cycle. 18Z Wednesday through Sunday... 18Z Wednesday through 12Z Friday - VFR/high pressure. 12Z Friday through Sunday - VFR/MVFR/IFR in scattered rain/snow shower activity. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG

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