Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281738 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 138 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL CAUSE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS WITH SEVERAL RIVERS APPROACHING BANKFULL. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS TODAY, ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 139 PM EDT SUNDAY...DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AS MOST OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN VERMONT, THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. WHILE MAJORITY OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT, STILL EXPECT A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY AS WEAK DRY SLOT CENTERED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEAST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE AT 20-30 KTS AND STRONGER ABOVE 2000FT...AROUND 40KTS. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 418 AM EDT SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN THE DRY SLOT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BACKED A BIT ON TOTAL RAINFALL BUT ALL IN ALL WE SHOULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD 1-2" AMOUNTS. THIS SHOULD CREATE SOME MODEST RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS, BUT CURRENTLY NOT THINKING ANY MAIN-STEM RIVERS WILL GO TO FLOOD. CERTAINLY A FEW SMALLER BROOKS AND STREAMS MAY REACH BANKFULL WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE, AND THUS WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NOW. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL TREND THOUGH THE DAY WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WE`LL SEE SOME CLEARING IN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LIKELY SOME DENSE FOG IF WINDS GO CALM. WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE YET AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MODELS HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY FORECAST THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, NOW SHOWING A SOMEWHAT LATE ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SURFACE HEATING. NAM/GFS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH CAPES OF 500- 1000 J/KG AND SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SW/LI`S. PWATS DO INCREASE UP TO TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES SUPPORTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THOUGH WHICH WON`T HELP MATTER MUCH HYDRO-WISE AFTER THIS WEEKENDS RAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 334 AM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL ANTICIPATE LARGE- SCALE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...MAINTAINING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. WE/LL BE WATCHING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE FIRST IS A BIT SLOWER IN 00Z NWP SUITE...AND LIKELY BRINGS STRONGEST QG FORCING THRU THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...IT APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAX. HAVE INDICATED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...MAY SEE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH PEAK HEATING. VALLEY HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. AS 500MB TROUGH SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH NWLY WIND SHIFT AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD MEAN DIMINISHING SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY MID-UPR 70S). IN ADVANCE OF NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TURNS S-SW FOR SATURDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH RETURN TO MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. MAY SEE A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PER 00Z ECMWF AND GFS...BUT STILL A BIT TOO SOON TO DISERN DETAILS. CURRENTLY SHOWING POPS 30-40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AFTN. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MVFR/IFR PREDOMINATES (BRIEF INTERVALS VFR) THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STEADIER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR ANTICIPATED INTO MONDAY. EARLIER STEADY, AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN HAS SINCE LIFTED INTO QUEBEC, WITH LIGHTER-INTENSITY RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAINS. EXPECT PRIMARY AREA OF MOST PERSISTENT RAIN BEING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AIRSPACE UNDER UPPER LOW. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOW MVFR AND ARE PROJECTED TO STAY THAT WAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON IFR UPSTREAM METARS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, THE BEST CHANCE AT IFR CEILINGS WOULD BE UNDERNEATH UPPER LOW AS IT TREKS NORTHEASTWARD THRU 12Z. VWP DATA SUGGESTS A STEADY DECREASE IN OBSERVED LOW- LEVEL WINDFIELD WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THUS, ANTICIPATE ANY AREAS OF LLWS TO END AND GUSTY EAST WINDS AT RUT TO GRADUALLY ABATE THRU 00Z. WINDS AFTER 00Z, BECOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST (VARIABLE AT TIMES) AS LOW MOVES THROUGH. GENERAL THEME FOR MONDAY IS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS WITH ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATING IN THE MORNING. STILL EXPECT BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AREAS LIFR DUE TO NOCTURNAL RADIATION FOG MONDAY NIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCE MPV/SLK. 18Z TUESDAY-18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 18Z WEDNESDAY-06Z THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. 06Z - 12Z THURSDAY...TRENDING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. POTENTIAL LIFR FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED...MAINLY SLK/MSS/MPV. 12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN SHOWERS AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. 00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR THOUGH POSSIBLE LIFR RADIATION FOG IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT MPV/SLK. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 418 AM EDT SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAS COME DOWN A LITTLE BUT WE STILL EXPECT VALUES IN THE 1-2" RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE MODEST WATERSHED RISES, WITH SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS LIKELY APPROACHING BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE RIVER FLOWS AND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS. PARTICULAR RIVERS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER, SARANAC RIVER, AND BARTON RIVER WHICH ALL EXPERIENCED FLOODING RECENTLY. ALSO THE RAQUETTE RIVER AT PIERCEFIELD AND SOUTH COLTON WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT`S ALREADY RUNNING NEAR AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH IT OVER FLOOD STAGE. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN ON TUESDAY, MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES: BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER, AND MOUNT MANSFIELD. AS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 16Z SUNDAY, 8.82 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT. MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS CURRENT AS OF 6/26. AT 7.70 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 2.22 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET IN 1922. AT 14.16 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 1.12 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ002>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...LOCONTO HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV CLIMATE...LOCONTO

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