Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 231728
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
128 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Dry weather returns to the North Country today and remains
through Monday night. Low pressure passes along the Eastern
seaboard from Tuesday through Thursday bringing our next chance
for showers Tuesday and Wednesday especially across our
Southeastern zones. A surface cold front will bring some more
showers on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 128 PM EDT Sunday...Clear skies and light winds prevail
for the rest of today with temperatures warming into the 60s.
Building ridge of surface high pressure continues tonight with a
surface low passing well north of the region across Quebec,
increasing clouds for portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures generally falling into the 30s overnight.
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast area is split between 500 mb
northern stream closed low moving east out of northern Quebec
and closed low moving east across the gulf states, with zonal
westerlies. East/west oriented surface ridge gets suppressed to
the south as a weak cold front trailing from the Quebec low
crosses the border. Limited moisture and upper forcing with this
feature so no precipitation forecast, but expect clouds along
the front to limit sunshine in the north. Cooling of 850 mb
temps along the canadian border near 0 C, and +3 to +5C in the
south, to support max temps near 50 north to near 60 south. By
Monday night southerly low level flow reasserts itself and the
front retreats northward.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...The southern stream low will be the
dominant feature early in the extended period as it moves up the
Atlantic coast and across southern and eastern New England
Wednesday and Thursday. Low level easterly flow ahead of the low
on Tuesday will spread moisture and cooler temperatures into
New England, with cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to near
50 in southeast portion of the forecast area, and warmer near 60
to the north and west. Chance for showers begin Tuesday as the
low approaches, with likely POPs Tuesday night and Wednesday as
the low passes.
A break Wednesday night and much of Thursday as the low pulls
away and a cold front approaches from the west, and the region
finds itself under shortwave ridging. Strong south wind ahead
of the front and warm air advection will boost Thursday max
temps into the 70s. Front is a little delayed from guidance we
were looking at this time last night, with timing now late
Thursday evening/overnight periods. Still enough residual
instability from daytime heating to support mention of thunder
with showers that will accompany the frontal passage. GFS is a
little more progressive, pushing the front east of the forecast
area by midday Friday, while ECMWF is slower with showers
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions prevail with generally
light winds, except in the St Lawrence Valley with gusts
15-20kts in channeling effects. Clouds increase from the north
overnight, but generally expected to remain VFR cigs.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.