Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 140736 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 336 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CHILLY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS. FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 142 AM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDY COVER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY REACHING NORTHERN NY BY SUNDAY EVENING. NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WINDS GENERALLY NW 5-10 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE 925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL HOLD STRONG MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH NEAR 100% RH INDICATED AT/BELOW THAT LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH TRAPPED MOIST LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS PREVAILING STRATUS LAYER WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK UP. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL PEEKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRYING TAKES PLACE FROM NW-SE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 50S (ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL)...AND ONLY LOWER 40S ON THE SUMMITS. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS EARLY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR. SHOULD SET UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS VERMONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND IN THE COLDER VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS (29F AT KSLK). EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND FROST FORMATION WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT VEGETATION AND PROTECTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE PLANNED AS NECESSARY. IN ADDITION...ANY HOUSE PLANTS SHOULD BE MOVED INDOORS. LOWS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL BE A BIT WARMER...GENERALLY IN THE 40-42F RANGE. FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE FROST/FREEZE MENTION. IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION...INCLUDING IN THE LOWER PASSUMPSIC...CONNECTICUT...AND WINOOSKI VALLEYS. FOG WILL LOCALLY HOLD TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT AROUND ST. JOHNSBURY...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL TO THE SURROUNDING AREAS AWAY FROM THE LOWER PASSUMPSIC VALLEY. FAIR WEATHER MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SW WINDS DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS LATE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES NY/PA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ANTICIPATE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (UP TO 0.1" RAINFALL EXPECTED). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 334 AM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS TO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY RIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR AT BTV/RUT/MPV/MSS...VFR/MVFR AT PBG...AND MVFR/IFR AT SLK. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AROUND 18Z OR SO) WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. SKC EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 7-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT PBG WITH A LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG AT SLK AND MPV. 00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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