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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 072017
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SLIDES EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SEASONAL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO POSSIBLY
A FEW LOW 40S...THEN TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...WHAT A WAY TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND FINALLY SOME SPRING-LIKE TEMPS IN THE 30S!
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE EVENING...BUT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HOLD NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS MOISTURE PROFILES AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FOR PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED. AS I MENTIONED ABOVE...ANTECEDENT
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
SO THINKING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH. HIGHS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (IMAGINE THAT) IN THE MID 30S TO PERHAPS A
FEW LOWER 40S.

QUIETER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND IS REPLACED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
WITH LOWS 5 TO 15 ABOVE...AND HIGHS SUNDAY JUST A SMIDGE BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ON
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST...BUT NOTHING IN THE VALLEYS.

WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO START
THE WORK WEEK AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS LOOKING TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT
ANY REAL ACCUMULATING PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLY BEHIND IT GOING INTO THE LATER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PAIR OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEAK LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
WARM/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE HIGHEST
POPS PREFERRED (AROUND 50 PERCENT). ANY ACCUMULATIONS MINOR
HOWEVER...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT ABOVE FREEZING WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
IN THE FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AGAIN...QPF NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SNOW/RAIN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR DECREASED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND MAYBE SOME CLEARING.

PROBLEM PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL A WIDE DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS OFFERED
BY GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...SOUTH OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BULK OF
SNOW SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
TRACKING JUST INSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO AS MUCH AS 1.25 INCHES SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST LOW CENTER WOULD PASS
VERY CLOSE TO 40N 70W. WITH SUCH A WIDE DISPARITY IN SOLUTIONS
OFFERED...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GONE WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPS. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE 20S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SKC WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT-BKN100-200 TONIGHT WITH
MSS/SLK SEEING SCT040-050 BKN080-100 AFTER 06Z SAT. AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...EXPECT SCT-BKN040 BKN080 WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 25 KTS THIS PM DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS