Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 202336 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 736 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN GOING INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END OFF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 729 PM EDT SUNDAY...ERLY AFTN PATCHES OF HI/MID CLDS WAS DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING S. HOWEVER...LARGER VEIL ASSOC WITH NXT SYSTEM ALRDY SHIFTING S AND E FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP TMPS NOT AS COLD DESPITE VRY DRY AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S ACRS VT BUT MORE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S ACRS ST LWRNC VLY. RIGHT NOW...NO CHGS TO ONGOING FCST. 324 PM DISCUSSION...A GREAT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GREAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH MORE OF A SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ ONTARIO AND WILL NOT AFFECT THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD TO MOVE THROUGH. WIND REGIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL STAY SSW AROUND 5-15 MPH. BIGGEST DROP IN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET/EARLY EVENING. LARGE T/TD SPREAD OVER THE AREA ATTM WILL SHRINK AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN EASTERN VERMONT/ DACKS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE WILL BE THE RANGE OF LOWS FOR THE CWA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 324 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST AND REMAINING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE REST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. FROPA OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH A TAPERING OF MOST PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER...MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY WILL HAVE AREA MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL CLOUDS REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BLANKETING THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY. WITH RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH SOME SLOW CLEARING IN VALLEY LOCALES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY WITH FROPA...PUTTING FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH EASTERN CWA SEEING SITUATION OF EARLY HIGHS WITH FROPA OCCURRING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG SSW GRADIENT DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WILL HAVE AREA SEEING AT OR BELOW NOUNAL TEMPS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CAA ON NORTHERLY FETCH. CLOUD COVER WILL BE FACTOR IN OVERNGT LOWS TUESDAY. OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ON MONDAY WITH 50S IN N NY/60S IN VT FOR TUESDAY WITH DIFFERENCE BEING FRONT PLACEMENT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO L40S...COLDEST IN HIR TRRN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS...FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN SSW WITH GRADIENT TIGHTEN AS FRONT APPROACHES. LOOKING FOR 5-15 MPH WITH AREAS 10-20 MPH WITH FRONT. WITH FROPA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW PASSES OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHIFTS TO MORE NORTHERLY REMAINING IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE UNTIL UPPER SUPPORT PASSES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. PRECIP...MAIN P-TYPE WITH FROPA WILL FALL AS RAINSHOWERS...WITH SOME RW/SW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS INTO REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSSIBLE IN THESE SPOTS. OVERALL QPF FOR THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 0.30" TO 0.60". && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ...SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT NOTHING WORSE THAN BKN080. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT. GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 08-12 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. COULD GET GUSTY TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE ONCE MIXING STARTS TO OCCUR. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...JN/SLW SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/NF

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.