Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 222333 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 733 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS. GFS MOS MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT TOO COOL OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GFS LAMP GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG IN THESE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 402 PM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 TO NEARLY 2.0 INCHES. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE 11000 FT AND APPROACH 12000 FT...SO HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL. THE MAIN THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS ALOFT ALSO SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 318 PM EDT TUESDAY...MOVING ON INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS IN THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL THE GFS PHASES THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...SHIFTING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL...JUST ONLY 24 HOURS LATER. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING AND CONTINUE TO OFFER CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES MONDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SYSTEM IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WET FEW DAYS TO START THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS NOT OVERALL STRONG SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR PSBL AT KSLK. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. SFC RIDGE WEAKENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. SO IN THE WANING HOURS OF RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z/WED...AND LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH BKN/OVC SKIES REACHING KMSS AROUND 12Z. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW-SW AT 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS BY MID MORNING. SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH CPV AND KMPV BTWN 16Z AND 19Z...REACHING KRUT LAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. KMSS LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP ENDING TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THU - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL. 06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING. 12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...KGM

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