Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210425 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1125 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build eastward across the North Country tonight bringing mostly clear skies, diminishing winds, and chilly temperatures. Morning lows early Tuesday will be in the single digits to mid teens across the region. A weak mid-level disturbance approaching from the west will bring increasing cloudiness and developing south winds on Tuesday, with light precipitation Tuesday night. Precipitation will fall mainly as light rain. However, pockets of light freezing rain are possible east of the Green Mountains, and may result in a few icy spots. Well above average temperatures are expected through the remainder of the week, with a strong area of low pressure passing to our west expected to bring widespread rainfall Friday night through Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1035 PM EST Monday...Only minor noise-level adjustments to hourly temperature/dewpoint trends into the overnight and morning hours were needed as of 1030 pm with current forecast in excellent shape. Clear skies and light winds for the majority of the night will allow for decent radiative cooling as high pressure bridges overhead. Current forecast minimum temperatures from 10 to 18F in the valleys and positive/negative single digits for the northern mountains still look on track. Increasing/thickening high cloudiness will begin to advect atop western counties toward daybreak but will arrive late enough to have negligible affect on temperatures. Have a great night. Prior discussion... For Tuesday, a shortwave ridge crests across the area with sfc ridge shifting to our east into the Gulf of Maine by afternoon. This will induce a southerly gradient flow with surface winds increasing to 10-20 mph, with gusts to 25mph during the afternoon hours (especially with channeled flow in the Champlain Valley). The 12Z NAM RH profiles suggest increasing mid-upper level clouds by 18Z from west to east ahead of next shortwave trough across the Great Lakes. Despite increasing clouds, should see warmer temps with highs in the upr 30s to lwr 40s. Mid-level height falls and trough axis shift thru quickly during Tuesday night. Low-levels remain relatively dry, and overall it appears that approaching precipitation will undergo a dissipating trend as the trough axis moves thru Tuesday night. Maintained Likely PoPs during the overnight period, but QPF values only 0.05-0.10" for most locations, and period of precipitation will likely only span 2-3 hrs in most spots. Vertical temperature profiles with continued south winds support mainly rain with lows in the mid 30s. That said, should see pockets of temps near freezing as the precipitation moves thru in spots east of the Green Mtns, and have gone with a light ZR/R for the ern half of VT. A few hundreths of an inch of freezing rain is possible, and introduced mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook as a few icy spots are possibly for travelers overnight Tuesday night. We will continue to monitor. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 348 PM EST Monday...Low pressure system passes well North of the region Wednesday. Mild temperatures are expected with region mainly in the warm sector through the day. Maximum temperatures will be in the 40s. Will have clouds through most of the day due to weak surface trough crossing the area. Wednesday night will remain mild with temperatures only dropping into the mid to upper 30s across the area with clouds remaining in place. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 348 PM EST Monday...On Thursday another low pressure system will pass from the Great Lakes region north of our forecast area. Light showers are expected with this feature as a weak surface trough crosses the area. Another larger and deeper low pressure system will impact the area Fri through Sunday. Some warm air advection light showers is expected on Friday as low pressure system lifts into Great Lakes area and warm front stretches out ahead of it lifting across our area. Highest probabilities of precipitation with this feature will be Saturday afternoon and overnight as cold front and best vorticity advection lifts across the area. Have mentioned likely pops at this time. Generally an inch to an inch and a half of qpf is expected, mainly rain. Saturday night will see remaining precipitation change over to snow showers with strong cold air advection. We will have very warm temperatures on Saturday ahead of the cold frontal passage. Temperatures will max out in the upper 40s to mid 50s, then sharp cold front will drop temps back into the 20s Saturday night. Will have to watch for possible flash freeze issues with temperatures dropping so sharply after a moderate rainfall. Quieter and mores seasonable weather will return for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 06z Wednesday...High pressure across area bringing mostly clear skies and VFR conditions to the region through overnight period. Will see increasing clouds above 15kft after 12Z Tuesday as high clouds advance from W-E ahead of the next trough across the Great Lakes. Precipitation arrives in St. Lawrence Valley near 00z Wed and eventually sweeps east. Activity is light with showery rain or freezing rain in eastern VT with MVFR cigs due to pcpn. Light and variable winds overnight but as high pressure system shifts to the east, will see winds developing from the south toward daybreak Tuesday, increasing to 10-12kts with gusts to 20kts at BTV by 18z Tuesday. Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday... A weak trough will bring periods of light rain, with pockets of freezing rain east of the Green Mtns during Tuesday night. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with this system, mainly during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Generally returning VFR with high pressure Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. Warm front approaches from the southwest Friday afternoon with increasing chances for rain and periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Will also see possible sfc wind gusts locally in excess of 25kts with low-level turbulence and wind shear late Friday through Saturday as deep low pressure passes to our west across the Great Lakes and Ontario. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Banacos/SLW

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