Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 012330 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 730 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OUR WEEKEND WEATHER WILL FEATURE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS TYPICAL, ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND WILL GIVE US DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 730 PM EDT FRIDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF EARLY EVENING. YOU MAY NOTICE THE SKY THIS EVENING IS ONCE AGAIN QUITE HAZY. THIS IS MORE MODERATELY DENSE SMOKE ALOFT BEING TRANSPORTED SOUTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF OUR LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WITH ORIGINS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN CANADA WILDFIRES. NO SENSIBLE IMPACT AT THE SURFACE...BUT SUNSET SHOULD BE A TAD BRIGHTER THAN NORMAL WITH A GENERAL LACK OF COLOR. ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALL BUT ENDED SO GENERALLY EXPECTING A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS TENDING TO THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THIS MAY END UP LIMITING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG ACROSS OUR FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ALSO APPEAR RIGHT ON TRACK. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... PRETTY QUIET, OUTSIDE OF VERY ISOLATED AND SMALL SHOWERS WHICH HAVE FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOWER 60S IN SPOTS, THERE STILL ISN`T A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE NOR ANY STRONG TRIGGER FOR ANYTHING TO REALLY GET GOING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THESE SMALL SHOWERS WILL CEASE TO EXIST. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS MOISTURE CONSOLIDATES ALONG THAT DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND STILL RELATIVELY WET DIRT FROM RECENT RAINS, PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED -- ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE VALLEYS IN EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SHOULD DO IT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND IT`S TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS ON TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF CONVECTION AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. MY BEST GUESS ON WHAT WILL EVOLVE FOLLOWS... SATURDAY: OFF TO OUR SOUTH WE`LL HAVE THAT COASTAL TROUGH IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THAT COASTAL TROUGH. SOME MODELS EVEN SHOW A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE ONE INGREDIENT IN HELPING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA. ANOTHER FOCUS WILL BE A SURFACE HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THICKER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND SUNSHINE (AT LEAST IN THE MORNING) TO THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH NO CAP -- SO ONCE WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BUBBLE UP, FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN ELSEWHERE. NOT LOOKING AT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WIND FIELDS WON`T BE ALL THAT STRONG. DID SOME TRAJECTORY FORECASTS AND OUR AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VERMONT IS WHAT IS DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN NJ AREA TODAY. AS YOU CAN SEE, THEY`VE HAD QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. I EXPECT OUR RADAR TO LIKE LIKE THAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE PAINTED IN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THICKER CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL. NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY -- ROUGHLY 1.3" OR SO, BUT THAT MEANS SOME DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS ALOFT WON`T BE ALL THAT STRONG, SO SOME VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. AGAIN, LOOK AT WHAT IS GOING ON DOWN SOUTH TODAY. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY THANKS TO THE CLOUDS. WARMEST NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN (UNTIL THE STORMS FIRE UP). SATURDAY NIGHT: EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO FADE IN THE EVENING AS THE HEATING GOES AWAY AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS. A FEW MODELS WANT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. I JUST DON`T BUY THAT AT THIS TIME. WOULD THINK OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THAT COASTAL TROUGH. EXPECT A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS ABOUT THE SAME. SUNDAY: OVERALL THE PATTERN IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT. DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW, COASTAL FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE DAY. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. AGAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY. SUNDAY NIGHT: AGAIN, EXPECT SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO FADE SOMETIME DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT FOR SLEEPING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TURN THE WIND FLOW WEST THEN NW BY WEDNESDAY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRIER AS THE REGION SEES MORE NW FLOW BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ABOUND FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING FROM 12C-14C TO 10C-12C. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IN THE M60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND M70S-L80S IN THE VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY. MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE L50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE CPV. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DISSIPATING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AT KSLK AND KMPV. VFR LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z...WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AGAIN DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 15Z/16Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...JMG/NASH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.