Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 012012 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 412 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 411 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...WHILE SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY SUNNY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT... BUT STILL PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 411 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTING MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...SO EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER IN BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FINALLY A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND TROF DEVELOPS. THIS WL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS...ALONG WITH CHCS FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WITH CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH A SLOW TREND TWD COOLER TEMPS. LATEST 12Z GFS AND 00Z ENSEMBLE DATA IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIFTING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...POTENT 5H VORT WL ROUND DEVELOPING TROF AXIS AND CREATE A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS OUR REGION...WHICH WL HELP ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR FA. HAVE NOTED GFS ENSEMBLE PW VALUES BTWN 1.50 AND 1.75" ON SATURDAY AFTN...WHICH IS 1 TO 3 STD ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE 5H PVA FROM VORT AND STRONG RIBBON OF UVV`S WL RESULT IN A 6 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN ACRS OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. THINKING ARRIVAL TIME WL BE AROUND 12Z SLV...AND 18Z DACKS/WESTERN CPV...AND INTO EASTERN VT BY 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/DYNAMICS AND SLOW PROGRESSION OF SFC BOUNDARY...THINKING QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AND 0.75" WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 1.0 LIKELY. NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL. ALSO...WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SAT AFTN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SHOW 925MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS...ALONG WITH 85H JET OF 60 TO 65 KNTS. HOWEVER...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS...WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING TO THE SFC. THINKING GUSTS BTWN 35 AND 40 MPH WL BE POSSIBLE THE SLV/DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES...AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON SAT. THIS WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS EVENT BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED BY OUR LOCAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY SAT WITH DEVELOPING SHARP WEST TO EAST THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR FA...BUT THINKING NEAR 70F EAST TO U50S/LOWER 60S DACKS/SLV. SUNDAY-MONDAY...DEEP CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION CONTS NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT ACRS OUR CWA. THIS FLW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND RIBBONS OF MID LVL MOISTURE...WL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN. IN ADDITION...EXPECT ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WL IMPACT THE DACKS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN 2-4C BY SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S MTNS TO U50S/LOWER 60S WARMER VALLEYS. WL MENTION HIGHEST CHC POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LOWS WITH THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRES GRADIENT WL RANGE FROM THE U30S MTNS TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. BETTER CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE ON TUES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SFC COLD FRNT AND POTENT 5H ENERGY...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WL INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON TIMING...ESPECIALLY WITH FAST FLW ALOFT. TEMPS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP WL RANGE FROM THE U40S MTNS TO U50S/LOWER 60S WARMER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST WITH REGARDS TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG/BR THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...FOLLOWED BY PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONDITIONS FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. 1ST WL CONT IFR AT BTV THRU 20Z...ASSOCIATED WITH BLOCKED FLW AND NORTHWEST SFC WINDS...AIDING IN LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON THE EAST OF THE CPV. ELSEWHERE...MIXING HAS OCCURRED AND CIGS HAVE GONE TO MVFR AT PBG/MPV AND MSS WITH VFR AT RUT/SLK. THINKING VFR/MVFR WL PREVAIL THRU 00Z...THEN FOG/BR WL QUICKLY DEVELOP AT SLK AFT SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...LLVL JET OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WL LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL THRU 04Z...THEN JET SLACKENS WITH IFR CIGS OR VIS LIKELY AT BTV/MSS/MPV AND PBG. THESE CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THRU 14Z THURSDAY...BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVING TREND. AT RUTLAND...SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLW OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS WL KEEP CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TWD SUNRISE. GIVEN EXPECTED MOISTURE SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CPV...WHERE LLVL FLW ACRS LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL HELP ENHANCE MOISTURE FIELDS. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SUSTAIN WINDS BTWN 10-14 KNTS FROM THE NE AT MSS THIS AFTN...BEFORE DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WL PREVAIL. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS ON THURS AFTN...WITH FOG/BR POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. A STRONG COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH AREAS OF LLVL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER AT SLK/MPV ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.