Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051804 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 104 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening warm front lifts across the North Country today with widespread light snowfall through midday. The snow is expected to result in some travel slowdowns during the morning commute. Weather will remain active as we move through the work week with several additional systems bringing renewed chances of light rain and snow. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 1237 PM EST Monday...Current radar still showing scattered snow showers across northern ny into central/northern vt this afternoon. This precip is associated with a weak deformation zone and leftover moisture across our northern area...and should continue to produce periods of on and off snow showers...mainly over the higher terrain. Given current radar trends and available moisture would not be surprised to hear about an inch or two...especially northern dacks and northern/central greens...including parts of the northeast kingdom. Storm total snowfall amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 5 or 6 inches possible. Have continued to increase snow grids slightly to capture latest trends...especially northern zones. Otherwise...still anticipating precip to becomes more terrain driven by this evening as weak front helps to shift winds to the northwest. Overall flow is weak and additional lift is minor...so not anticipating much additional accumulation. Areas of flurries/freezing drizzle possible as we lose moisture in the favorable snow growth region by 03z tonight...especially in the terrain. Temps will stay mainly 20s mountains to l/m 30s valleys for highs this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 AM EST Monday...A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country on Tuesday. However, this will be a "dirty high", as plenty of low level moisture will be over the region on Tuesday, with mostly cloudy skies expected. On Tuesday night, an upper shortwave will approach the region from the southwest. Models in good agreement showing that precipitation will not arrive into the region until after midnight Tuesday night. Expecting some light snow to develop, along with some pockets of light rain. Have gone with likely pops for late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. Precipitation will wind down late Wednesday morning, and have lowered pops for Wednesday afternoon to slight or low chance pops. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 430 AM EST Monday...Wednesday night expecting mostly cloudy skies across the region, with just some slight chance pops for snow showers over a portions of the Adirondacks. A cold front will move through the region late Wednesday night and early Thursday. The north country will be under cold advection from Thursday through Friday night. This will result in snow showers across the region from Thursday through Friday night. Have raised superblend pops to likely for Thursday and Friday over the Adirondacks and the western slopes of the Green Mountains, as gusty northwest winds will generate upslope snow showers over the Adirondacks and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. On Saturday, models show a ridge of high pressure will be over the region Saturday and Saturday night, with fair and dry weather expected. GFS and ECMWF models show a warm front approaching the region from the Great Lakes and Ohio valley on Sunday, so have gone a bit higher than superblend pops for snow showers on Sunday, with over running warm air advection aloft moving into the region. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Through 18Z Tuesday...Current aviation obs show a mix of vfr to lifr across our taf sites this afternoon. Occasional snow showers will continue across northern NY into northern VT this afternoon with intervals of ifr expected at slk/mss/mpv. Otherwise...thinking southwest downslope winds at pbg/btv will result in a mix of mvfr/vfr through the rest of today. Meanwhile...this evening a weak front shifts our winds to the northwest and the flow becomes blocked with developing low level moisture. This will lower cigs after 03z to ifr levels at btv/slk/mpv with periods of ifr possible at rut/mss. In addition...this moisture may produce areas of freezing drizzle or light snow flurries...especially slk/mpv with a light glaze possible after 06z. Difficult to determine areal coverage and potential impacts of freezing drizzle. Anticipating mvfr to ifr vis in the mountain taf sites (mpv/slk) with mainly mvfr vis at btv/rut/mss. Conditions will slowly improve from ifr to mvfr to vfr across our taf sites by 18z tues with surface high pres directly overhead. Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday... Vfr with some lingering mvfr cigs at slk/mpv on Tuesday...before another warm front produces another round of widespread light snow across our region on Weds. Similar to Monday`s event thinking a period of ifr/lifr likely between 12z-18z Weds across our taf sites with vis below 2sm and cigs between 500 feet and 2000 feet. An arctic boundary will produce more scattered snow showers and potential snow squalls on Thursday into Friday with brief periods of ifr conditions possible. Improving conditions with mvfr valleys and ifr/mvfr in scattered snow showers persist on Saturday.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Taber

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