Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021959 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 359 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SUNNY, DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. WARM SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN EARLY SATURDAY GIVING A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...WELL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY PRIMED. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY (CAPE PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C). SO FAR THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER RADAR SHOWS THE BUILDING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO THE UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL LIKE HOW THE HRRR AND OUR LOCAL 6KM WRF ARE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ETA INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE EVENING (LET`S GO WITH 6-8PM) AND THEN INTO EASTERN VERMONT BY 10PM. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH IS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR THE CONVECTION IS NOW OVER MICHIGAN AND STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST. OUT AHEAD OF THAT SHORT WAVE THE WIND FIELDS AND RELATED SHEAR INCREASE, BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING. SO IT`S A BATTLE BETWEEN TIMING OF THE BEST DYNAMICS VS BEST INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT STILL SEE NOTHING TO CHANGE THE IDEA THAT WE`LL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW STRONG T-STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND MAINLY WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN BY MID EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN VERMONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE GET, WE COULD HAVE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. THE COOLER AIR LAGS THE WEATHER A BIT, SO IT WILL STILL BE A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A QUIET 48 HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION. DAILY SPECIFICS... WEDNESDAY: FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 11-12C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WITH SOME WEAK COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN, WE`LL HAVE SOME EXCELLENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE 20KT OR SO OF WIND THAT WILL BE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP, SO IT SHOULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM, SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND WILL STILL BE A BIT DAMP FROM THE RAIN THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S, THOUGH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN COLD SPOTS LIKE SARANAC LAKE. THURSDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARLY OVERHEAD, BUT STARTING TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 12-13C, WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL. THURSDAY NIGHT: DISCARDED THE NAM AS IT SEEMS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCES THICKENING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THINK IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY PER OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING, IT WON`T BE AS COLD, LOTS OF 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS PREDOMINATELY QUIET...LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT WET TO BEGIN. FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD...RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SURFACE FRONT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +20-23C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD 80`S EXPECTED. IT`LL BE MUGGY TOO WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S WHICH WILL CREATE AMPLE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE BTV CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH IS MAINTAINED BY THE LATEST ECMWF. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER PUSHING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CONTINUED ON WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF. BY LATE SATURDAY TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS HIGH THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE TUESDAY OFFERING A NICE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER WEATHER. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXPECTED HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR ACROSS THE AREA WILL DETERIORATE TO VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR BUT VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR AS STORMS PASS. AFTER 06Z...PRECIP IS EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV...BUT MVFR AT KRUT/KSLK/KMPV WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KRUT UNDER BLOCKED FLOW. AFTER 12Z...ALL CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK. 00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMPV/KSLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...NASH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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