Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200053 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 853 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain as the controlling weather feature across Vermont and northern New York during the next 5 to 7 days. Hurricane Jose will remain south of New England, but onshore flow from coastal areas will result in periods of low clouds and a chance of light showers for eastern Vermont tonight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain dry with temperatures well above seasonal averages for mid to late September. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 744 PM EDT Tuesday...No significant changes for this evenings update. Lowered pops a bit since there isn`t much in the way of showers on radar. Previous discussion follows. The quiet weather conditions will continue through the near term with a fairly narrow but strong high pressure ridge anchored over the region. This ridge will keep the brunt of the effects from Jose southeast of the forecast area. There is a low chance a few showers will make it into the far southeast part of the forecast area tonight so will hold on to the 30 pop there. Any rainfall which occurs will be light. Otherwise, models still indicate patchy fog, mainly in the favored areas, although there could be light fog in the Champlain Valley. Winds are expected to turn northerly at 10-15 mph on Wednesday as they respond to the cyclonic circulation of Jose. Overnight lows will be above normal again tonight, in the 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be mainly in the 70s areawide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...12z guidance suite all in agreement that the high pressure ridge will keep us high and dry. Wednesday night: We`ll have a little bit of a northerly wind across the region, perhaps staying up 10-15mph in the Champlain Valley due to some channeling down the valley. Could see a little bit of patchy fog in the protected valleys, but in general look for mostly clear conditions and continued mild. Lots of 50s across the region, except around 60f near Lake Champlain. Thursday: With 925mb temperatures around 17C, and plenty of sunshine, temperatures will top well into the 70s, with a few lower 80s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. Nil PoPs. Thursday night: winds weaken, so some excellent radiational cooling looks to set up. Expect the cold locations, like Saranac Lake, could drop into the upper 30s. For the rest of the area, look for upper 40s to lower 50s. Patchy fog should make a return as well.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...12z longer term guidance (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) are in excellent agreement through Sunday. Some differences start to crop up after that, namely in how the models handle the interaction of the massive ridge and Hurricane Maria as it should be coming up the east coast next week. Given the confidence through the weekend, the only deviation I made to the model blend was to increase high temperatures over the weekend toward the warmest guidance and to yank out some spurious small chances of precipitation. Bottom line -- expect dry summer condition to continue through Monday. 925mb temperatures will increase a degree or two each day through Monday, topping out around 20-22C Sunday and Monday. Given full sunshine, it`s not out of the question that we touch 90F in a few spots (especially parts of the Champlain Valley) each afternoon. At this point I only went as warm as 84-88F both days which was based on some of the warmest guidance I could find. I suspect guidance will be playing a little catchup given the level of warmth for this time of year. Come Tuesday the GFS suggests a backdoor front tries to come in from the northeast, with cooler temperatures and a small chance of showers. Meanwhile the 12z ECMWF suggests the ridge remains in place, but the remnants of Jose spreads some moisture northward, resulting in a small chance of showers. Given all of the tropical activity, first of all -- always follow the NHC forecasts. Secondly, Jose and Maria and their possible interactions with each other and how they feedback into the large scale ridging in place can not accurately be predicted typically beyond roughly 5 days (Sunday). So thus the confidence in the forecast starts decreasing rapidly after that point. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 00Z Thursday...Expect fog formation once again tonight at MPV, SLK, and MSS. Other sites will remain VFR. Have tried to time when the fog will form using a persistence approach. IFR conditions are possible as well as MVFR. All sites will return to VFR after 13z. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NRR NEAR TERM...Neiles/NRR SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...Neiles/NRR

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