Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171807 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 107 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast through the eastern Great Lakes today and up the St. Lawrence Valley tonight and Wednesday. A mix of wintry precipitation will begin in northern New York late this afternoon, and spread east across Vermont tonight, and continue area-wide through Wednesday. Be ready for slow travel conditions tonight and for the morning commute on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 107 PM EST Tuesday...The only change to the forecast was to raise max temperatures for today up a degree or two, as temperatures in some locations already warmer than forecast. Previous discussion from 621 AM EST Tuesday...No changes to this first part of the forecast, so far tracking along well. Temperatures in the teens and lower 20s, with clear skies. KMSS reporting 6sm br but otherwise no other obstructions to visibility. A quiet first half of the day as the surface ridge shifts east ahead of our next approaching storm system. Light east to southeast low level flow ahead of the low, with increasing clouds already seen approaching on IR satellite. High temps today in the low to mid 30s. 500 mb shortwave trough will move out of the great lakes toward 00z and track west to east across the forecast area between 00-12z Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of the shortwave will spread warm frontal precipitation across the region beginning after 18z in northern NY and into VT after about 22z, and continue overnight into Wednesday. Diurnal cooling will be offset by warm air advection tonight with a mix of precip types. Western portion of New York zones the most susceptible to the biggest mix, where warm air intruding up the St. Lawrence valley will allow for freezing rain to mix with sleet and snow. In Vermont, below freezing temps through the low levels will keep precip type more toward all snow although there will be a brief period at the onset of the event with sleet mixed with the snow for most all Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom. With east to southeast flow below 850 mb expect to see greater snowfall accumulations on the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains and to a lesser extent on the northeast slopes of the Adirondacks. Up to a half inch of precip forecast, equating to 3 to 6 inches of snow in east central VT and eastern Essex County NY. Lesser snowfall amounts toward St. Lawrence Valley where sleet/freezing rain mix lower snow ratios. Snow accumulations out there to be generally 1-2 inches, with up to a tenth inch of ice, mainly in southern St. Lawrence county. Southeast downslope flow in the northern Champlain Valley, especially northwest Vermont. This will keep NW Vermont out of the advisory with 2-4 inch snow totals.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...Combination of low pressure pulling east off the New England coast and shortwave energy passing well north of the area will keep some lingering moisture across the North Country for the short term period, with northwest flow supporting higher chances for precipitation across the higher elevations as compared to the valleys. Thermal profiles support ptype mainly as snow through mid- morning Thursday but a warming boundary layer will support a change to rain showers by Thursday afternoon, though by then most of any precipitation around should be waning as high pressure begins to build in from the Ohio Valley. Lows Wednesday night remain very mild by mid- January standards in the mid 20s to low 30s, and Thursday`s even warmer pushing into the mid 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 310 AM EST Tuesday...We`ve got a very quiet and very warm period upcoming for the end of the week through the weekend as surface high pressure settles over the region and strong ridging develops aloft. Little to no precipitation is expected through the period, with the big story being several days of abnormally warm temperature with double digit daily departures from normal likely. Mean 925-850mb temps hover right around 0C through the period supporting highs in the mid/upper 30s to low/mid 40s each day, and lows generally mid 20s to low 30s, a far cry from late January standards of 20s for highs and single digits for lows. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
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Through 18Z Wednesday...ceilings will continue to lower through 00Z Wednesday. Expecting precipitation to begin at the TAF sites between 22Z Tuesday-01Z Wednesday. Bufkit forecast soundings suggesting mainly snow across the Vermont, with some sleet mixed in at times across southern Vermont. Expecting a mix of snow, sleet, and a period early this evening of freezing rain across northern New York. Ceilings will lower to IFR across the region by 02Z Wednesday. 18Z Wednesday - 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in periods of light snow. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR rain/snow showers. 00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure will be over the region.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday for VTZ006>012-017>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ029-087. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ028-030-031-034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...WGH/Hanson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...WGH

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