Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231742 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 142 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEVELOPING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. A SPOT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 112 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM NORTH HAS CLEARED OUT SOLID STRATUS DECK...ALLOWING SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME CU TO BUBBLE UP. LAPS ANALYSIS HAS MALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH CAPES 400-800 J/KG AND NEGATIVE LI`S. WEAK VORT MAX MOVING DOWN IN NORTHEAST FLOW CENTERED OVER GULF OF MAIN WITH S/WV TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. BETWEEN INSTABILITY AND TROUGH...ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE SLGT CHC POPS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS TRACKING AS FORECAST AND NO CHANGES THERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECTING A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN DAILY TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO THE DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS FROM DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES...AND CLR SKIES WL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPS WL FALL QUICKLY BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS...THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE L/M 40S DACKS/NEK TO L/M 50S CPV/SLV. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES...EXPECTING A MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT TO DEVELOP BTWN 1500 AND 2500 FT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AT THIS ELEVATION TONIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 11-13C ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUNDING SHOWING GOOD MIXING...THIS WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE BTWN 925 AND 800MB ON SLK SOUNDING...SO ANTICIPATED SOME SHALLOW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. ADDITIONAL FOG WL REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH DRIER BL CONDITIONS EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS AREAL COVERAGE. TEMPS WL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...WITH LOWS MAINLY M/U 40S TO M/U 50S. ON MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NY WITH SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PLACES UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE. EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14 AND 16C AND WITH GOOD MIXING...ADDING +15C SUPPORTS MID 80S SLV/CPV...WITH U70S TO L80S MTNS ZNS BTWN 1200 AND 1800 FEET. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 445 AM EDT SATURDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS FULL LATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +16C ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE HOLDS IN THE EAST. GFS WARMER THAN ECMWF AS IT AMPLIFIES RIDGE WHILE ECMWF FLATTENS IT OUT. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF IS CORRECT. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS MAINTAINS THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ECMWF INDICATES A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR NOW...BUT BELIEVE THE COOLING AND LOWERING HEIGHTS INDICATED BY ECMWF TO BE A BIT OVERDONE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH DAYS...WITH TEMPS COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS SKIES GO FROM BKN-OVC TO SCT-BKN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET. SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT IFR/LIFR AT MPV/SLK AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR AT REST OF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG LIFTS BY/ARD 12Z AND ONLY A FEW SC WITH VFR CONDS ON SUNDAY AND CONTD LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...SLW

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