Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270556 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 156 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will come to an end early this morning but become rather widespread during the late morning and afternoon hours across the entire area. In addition...the potential for thunderstorms will exist and gusty winds and small hail will be possible with any of the storms. The showers and storms end tonight and much of the area will be dry on Wednesday with just the possibility of some showers up along the international border. Below normal temperatures will continue through midweek...but a warmer and wetter pattern sets up for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 156 AM EDT Tuesday...Line of showers continues to move northeast across Vermont early this morning and should be out of the area by 400 AM. Noticeable clearing behind this line has already allowed for some fog to develop across parts of northern New York and this will be the case across Vermont over the next few hours. The dry weather will not last long as well defined shortwave trough moving out of the eastern Great Lakes early this morning is enhancing convection at the moment. This feature moves across our area during the late morning and afternoon hours and increase dynamic support across the region for greater areal coverage of showers and isolated storms across our area. Going forecast of convection ramping up into the likely category looks real good. Colder core aloft associated with the shortwave trough will steepen lapse rates over the area and despite cooler temperatures today...sufficient instability will develop with CAPE values in the 200-500 J/kg range. Low wet bulb zero values and layer of drier air in the sub-cloud region both point to gusty winds and small hail with any of the stronger convection. Going forecast already has this in and will continue to maintain. Shortwave then exits east through the evening hours on Tuesday with convective coverage lessening over time and leaving a mainly dry overnight period. Again, a few early evening storms may spit out some small hail east early. Low temperatures perhaps a degree or two cooler than tonight, generally upper 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 247 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday looks to be a relative minimum in the convective activity for the week. Northwest flow aloft in the wake of the shortwave should dry things out despite a fair amount of cold air aloft. There will be some instability developing in the afternoon but areal coverage should remain fairly low. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 247 PM EDT Monday...Thursday will begin a stretch of active weather through the end of the week. A wave along a frontal boundary will travel north of the border Thursday through thursday night with a boundary stretched out east to west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop to the west of the area in the lower great lakes and southern Ontario and move east along the boundary. Instability progged to be meager Thursday and thursday night so overall thunder chances area fairly low. Instability increases Friday so increased thunder chances Friday and Friday night. Southwesterly flow will continue to transport more moisture rich air into the region Friday and Saturday. Available instability progged to increase with the moisture plume moving into the area, but deep layer shear is meager at this point. PWAT values by Saturday way back up into the 1.50-2.00" range and heavy rainfall is definitely a concern. The rainfall of the last week, combined with whatever falls Thursday could set the stage for a flash flood event Saturday. Amount and location of Thursday`s rainfall will set the antecedent conditions for any potential flooding Saturday. Still quite far out in the forecast, but definitely bears watching. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06Z Wednesday...Showers will be exiting Vermont by about 09z this morning and clear skies over northern New York should move into Vermont as well. Moisture from the evening and early morning rainfall combined with the clear skies and light winds will produce a period of IFR to VLIFR conditions at a number of locations due to the development of fogs and low clouds. These lower conditions will last until about 12z before low level flow increases and promotes mixing. An upper level trough of low pressure moves into the region later this morning and afternoon and widespread showers are expected between 16z and 22z. Conditions will mainly be VFR...but may lower into the MVFR category during this period due to the showers. The potential will exist for thunderstorms and any of the storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and small hail. The precipitation comes to an end around 00z and VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Likely TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/JMG SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...Evenson

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