Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250758 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 358 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS. 925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S. PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY /NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80 OR SO ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S 00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT - PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SOON AT BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY ABOVE PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV AND/OR SLK. 00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO

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