Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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443 FXUS61 KBTV 040006 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 806 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 719 PM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR CWA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM AND SPREAD MORE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING OVER NORTHERN NY BY SUNRISE ON WEDS. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WEDS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT...WHERE QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 0.25". FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE I INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND EXPANDED DEVELOPING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NY INTO THE DACKS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES BY 06Z...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 30S MTNS TO MID 40S WARMER VALLEYS. MAINLY LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC. ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES. AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE OVERCAST SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING. SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH A MARINE LAYER OVER MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AT THIS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY RETURN OVERNIGHT TO THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS MOST AREAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHANCE MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...WGH/DEAL/SISSON EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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