Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
028 FXUS61 KBTV 212024 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 324 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Outside spotty light snow or snow showers across northern counties this evening, mainly cloudy skies and dry weather is expected tonight. A storm system tracking through the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley will affect the region Monday into Tuesday with a variety of mixed precipitation and rainfall. Behind this system temperatures return to seasonably cold levels for mid to late week before another round of potentially messy weather arrives by next weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 324 PM EST Sunday...Winter Weather Advisories are now in effect for portions of the area Monday into Monday night. A fairly quiet night remains on tap for the area as this morning`s weak cold front remains draped across the area. This boundary separates seasonably mild air in the 30s to around 40 across our area from colder readings in the 20s to our immediate north across southern Quebec and Ontario. For the most part a dry night under variably cloudy skies and continued seasonably mild temperatures are expected as lows bottom out in the 20s to locally near 30 in the Champlain Valley. Very weak overrunning processes streaking just north of the stationary front may produce some spotty on and off sprinkles or light snow through midnight or so along the international border. However, any accumulations should be minor to negligible and generally less than an inch. The weather then turns more active for Monday into Monday night as low pressure tracks from the central plains northeast into the lower Great Lakes. This will drive a more pronounced warm front through our area by later Monday into Monday night with a variety of mixed precipitation. Initially, the cooler airmass off to our north will bleed southward into northern areas Monday morning before background flow trends south/southeasterly over time by Monday evening and especially Monday night pushing temperatures above freezing for many areas. The exception will be the northern St. Lawrence Valley and eastern VT where cooler values will hold more stubborn longer. Using a model-blend for hourly temperature profiles and this morning`s GFS thermal profiles to govern p-type it suggests a period of mixed precipitation will arrive with the warm front through the day on Monday and the first part of Monday night before coverage tapers somewhat toward Tuesday morning as we enter the warm sector. The probabilities of mixed precipitation will persist the longest in the aforementioned cooler areas where some light snow/sleet and icing are expected. Using a standard empirical-based methodology for icing it suggests accretions will range from 0.05 to 0.15 inches will localized higher totals in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley from Ogdensburg north toward Massena. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for these areas accordingly in the Monday afternoon/Monday night time frame. Temperatures will be quite tricky and heavily dependent on elevation, topography and timing though the general idea will be for highs to top out in the 28 to 38 degree range by late in the day Monday with readings slowly rising Monday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM EST Sunday...As cold front approaches the North country, rain will spread across the area. Region will be completely in the warm sector behind cold front which lifted across the area Monday night, therefore no further threat for mixed precipitation. Rain will spread west to east across the area, and highest rainfall totals will be across Southern and Eastern Vermont. Maximum temperatures on Tue will reach the mid 30s to upper 40s, a few readings in the 50s would not surprise me. Cold front will push across the area Tuesday night, turning remaining precipitation to snow showers. Temperatures will dip into the teens across Northern New York, with teens and lower 20s across Vermont. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Sunday...Dry weather returns for Wednesday through Friday night with large ridge of surface high pressure over the region. The coldest day of the week will be Thursday with highs only in the teens. Otherwise temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals with a warming trend headed into next weekend. We will once again be impacted by a warm rain system for the Saturday night through Sunday night timeframe, another system that we will continue to monitor as we get closer to the weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...MVFR/VFR through the period with the exception of KMSS and possibly KSLK where occasional IFR will be more prevalent. The forecast period will mainly be precipitation-free, though some brief shsn will be possible at KMSS this evening. Winds generally light and less than 10 kts through the period. Outlook... Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Definite FZRA, Definite PL. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 324 PM EST Sunday...Widespread rainfall is expected across the area by Monday night into Tuesday. Current data suggests 36-hr rainfall totals ending at 700 pm Wednesday will range from 0.50 to 1 inch across the area. Given the substantial loss of snowpack across lower elevations during last week`s storm, and the fact that the warm-up will be of lesser magnitude we are not expecting significant ice movement or water rises on area rivers at this time. This is in close agreement with NERFC guidance and our latest river forecasts. Conditions will continue to be monitored closely over the next 48 hours and will be updated if later information suggests a different scenario than current thinking.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-018-019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ026>028-030-031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG HYDROLOGY...JMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.