Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161851 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 251 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1252 PM EDT TUESDAY...SLOW CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS NRN NY IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH HAS EXITED EAST OF VERMONT. STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ACROSS NRN VT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS VERMONT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN...WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 20 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER LOW CLOUDS DEPART OR DISSIPATE...LOOK FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...WE`LL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +6 C IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO WITH PARTIAL SUN WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS BULK OF MOISTURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH LATE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH AND EVEN COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING...THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...THANKS TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 251 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE WEEKEND WHEN A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRODUCING RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ON SUNDAY. FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA COMES OUT OF A COLD NIGHT BUT TEMPS TO RECOVER UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST...IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA IN THE MORNING. SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW RH...1000-500MB RH LESS THAN 40%...WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS BUT 850 MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND WEAK WARM FRONT SETS UP ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND 70S SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY AND CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEARER THE WARM FRONT...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION BUT TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS. THE NORTHEAST IS CUT OFF FROM BETTER MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH...SO ONLY MOISTURE SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH IS WHAT IT BRINGS ALONG WITH IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. EXPECT SIMILAR RAINFALL AS WITH LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES...COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A LOW ALOFT WITH LOW THICKNESS AND COOL 850 MB TEMPS. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME TODAY AS CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED FROM WEST TO EAST. THINGS SETTLING DOWN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. NY TAF SITES SCATTERED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEHIND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WINDSHIFT...AND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH VERMONT THROUGH 20Z WITH SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AND WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING. KEPT WINDS AT KBTV 240 DEG...AS CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CHANNELING PERSISTS. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR THEN LIFR FOG AND CIGS TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT RAINFALL. CONDITION TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 13UTC. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...HANSON

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