Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230234 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1034 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring a few lingering showers overnight and a westerly wind shift. Quieter, cooler and drier weather conditions return for Wednesday and through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1031 PM EDT Tuesday...Severe thunderstorms have cleared the region to the east and we have cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Trailing cold front east of Lake Ontario will potentially bring isold/sct -SHRA overnight, with a few rumbles of thunder possible through 06-07Z. Thereafter, clearing trend and westerly wind shift areawide. Isold additional showers are possible Wednesday as trailing upper level trough makes its way ewd across the North Country. Will be noticeably drier with dewpoints falling into the low-mid 50s by Wednesday morning. Likewise, temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, much closer to seasonal normals (mid- upr 70s). && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 259 PM EDT Tuesday...Continued 500mb cyclonic flow aloft, aided by orographic lift will keep some clouds and possible showers in the forecast in the short term, especially on Thursday. Decreasing PWATs in northwest surface flow will limit available moisture, hence only slight chance PoPs at this point. Temperatures throughout the period will be slightly cooler than normal with the upper level trough overhead. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 259 PM EDT Tuesday...The upper level trough continues overhead through the weekend with the upper level ridge moving in early next week. Surface high pressure looks to hold strong through most of the period. Cool and dry conditions will dominate the region through the time period. The exception may be Sunday when medium range models hint at a slight weakening in the surface pressure field coinciding with a weak vort lobe swinging across the region. For now will keep pops at slight chance or less. Temperatures will continue slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...The strong to severe thunderstorms are continuing to push through the region. Have removed thunder from all but KMPV/KRUT where I have thunder in until 01z/02z. Scattered showers will remain possible through the rest of the evening, gradually ending by around midnight. VFR conditions with southwesterly winds 10-15kts expected areawide Wed with just an isold -SHRA possible Wed afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...NRR LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...Banacos/NRR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.