Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.