Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 302035
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016
Rain will continue to spread across the North Country tonight
with strong gusty winds possible through early Thursday morning.
On Thursday, the rain will become focused around the higher
terrain, changing to snow Thursday night. Terrain focused
precipitation will continue Friday into Saturday, followed by a
brief period of drier weather on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EST Wednesday...Strong wind gusts expect tonight.
Have issued SPS for subadvisory criteria. But cannot rule out
isolated areas, mainly near the summits.
Large low pressure system will continue to push rain into the
North Country, along with strong low level jet moving into the
region. GFS and NAM indicate 50 kt jet at 850mb around 06Z,
exiting NEwd around 12Z. Local BTV2km model shows SE jet
resulting in strong downsloping wind gusts on western slopes
peaking in strength at 06Z. As rain spreads across the area,
question is how long will mixing last before stabilizing effects
of the rain. BUFKIT models show mixing limited to about 950mb
with winds decreasing starting 08z.
Cooling 925mb temperatures early in the night, trending warmer
after 06Z Thursday. The aforementioned strong gusty winds are
expected to diminish around 09Z as BL shrinks. With rain and
clouds, expect Min temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Come Thursday morning, main precip shield will lift to the
north and east, with rain showers expected to concentrate around
the higher terrain as we remain under cyclonic flow. Max
temperatures will be in the 40s.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 346 AM EST Wednesday...Conditions remain unsettled to say
the least to end the work week as the well advertised mid/upper
level low over the Wisconsin/Minnesota border this morning
shifts to north of the Great Lakes by Thursday morning, and then
eastward through southern Ontario on Friday. The resulting
weather across the North Country will be a continuation of
abundant clouds and periods of rain/snow showers. Mid/upper
level flow out of the southwest on Thursday will support lake
enhanced showers off Lake Ontario, mainly affecting the northern
Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains, while on Friday the
flow veers around to the west/northwest supporting more terrain
driven precipitation on increasingly blocked flow. Temps through
the period will mainly support rain in the valleys with highs
in the upper 30s to low 40s, and lows in the mid/upper 30s,
while at the higher elevations it should get cold enough to
support some wet snow accumulations of a few inches.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 346 AM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned upper low finally
shifts off into the Canadian maritimes come Friday night into
Saturday with terrain driven rain/snow showers generally coming
to an end by mid-morning Saturday. While strong high pressure
begins to build from the Ohio Valley eastward on Saturday,
abundant low level moisture will spell lots of clouds through
the day and likely Saturday night as well until the surface high
and upper ridge crest over the Northeast on Sunday. Dry conditions
generally prevail to start the work week on Monday as well, but
a weak shortwave trough passing through may spark a few light
snow showers before high pressure redevelops for Tuesday. Temps
through the period will run pretty close to seasonal normals
with highs in the 30s, and lows in the 20s.
.AVIATION /20Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Complex forecast with varying
conditions. Expect BTV and RUT remaining VFR for the next few
hours. Elsewhere, fog still expected to lift at SLK, MPV and PBg
briefly before rainfall arrives after 21z. Expect rain will
move from southwest to northeast across the area and continue
through 12Z Thursday, becoming more showery thereafter. Ceilings
and visibilities will quickly return to the MVFR and IFR
categories due to the rain and lower clouds. Also after 00z
Thursday...gusty southeast winds will develop with gusts in the
15 to 25 knot range, especially in any areas of downsloping.
Otherwise, strong wind profiles and changing winds with height
will cause areas of low level turbulence and shear.
Outlook 18z Thursday through Monday...A slow clearing trend is
anticipated with IFR conditions becoming MVFR on Thursday into
Friday. Mainly MVFR will prevail in the mountain TAF sites and a
mix of MVFR/VFR in the valleys through the upcoming weekend.
While drier conditions are expected Sunday and Monday, low level
moisture will likely keep VFR/MVFR clouds around Sunday, less