Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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156
FXUS61 KBTV 152301
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
701 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The windy and warm conditions will continue through the first
part of the night tonight in advance of a slow moving cold
front. Wind gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range can be expected
across northern New York and 30 to 40 mph over the remainder of
the area. A line of showers...and possibly a thunderstorm...will
move across northern New York and may produce locally strong
wind gusts. As the the showers move into Vermont this evening
they will not be as strong...but will still be capable of
producing rather gusty winds. The front moves east of the area
after midnight tonight and winds will turn to the northwest and
usher in noticeably colder air to start the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 657 PM EDT Sunday...A broken to solid line of showers with
perhaps an embedded t-storm was moving across central NY.
Several wind damage reports with this low-topped event in the
central portion of this line but nothing in the northern end so
far. Loss of daytime heating should halt any further development
but it will likely retain some of its punch for the next few
hours then quickly diminish.

Updated grids for timing and all looks good for the moment but
grids will likely need to be cleaned up a tad once activity
moves through.


Aftn Discussion...Forecast remains on track for windy
and warm conditions to give way later tonight to colder air as
cold front finally moves east of the area overnight. Before the
cold front though we will still experience above normal
temperatures and with tight pressure gradient and strong low
level flow...breezy to windy conditions will continue and wind
advisory remains in place for parts of northern New York as 40
to 50 mph wind gusts are expected ahead and behind the cold
front. In addition...line of showers across western New York
will move quickly eastward and will not take much to get
stronger localized wind gusts with any of the showers. Another
reason for the wind advisory as convective threat is low...but
cannot completely rule it out and do have a slight chance of
thunder this evening over northern New York.

Front moves east of the area after midnight and winds turn to
the northwest...taper off...and cold air advection really kicks
in. Precipitation threat will be tied to the terrain in the
northwest flow overnight and with colder air aloft moving
in...higher terrain could see a few snow showers...however bulk
of the precipitation will be east of the area. Magnitude of
winds will also be gradually tapering off overnight.

On Monday...cold air advection continues and we keep a lot of
clouds in over the mountains and maybe a few mountain rain and
snow showers...especially in the morning. Highs will generally
be in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 423 PM EDT Sunday...High pressure builds in Monday night
and colder and drier weather develop over the area. Winds taper
off and with clearing skies and light winds winds...lows Monday
night will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s. Places where the
frost/freeze program remain in effect...the Champlain Valley for
example...may need a frost advisory and the situation will
continue to be monitored.

Otherwise...dry weather is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night
with high pressure over the area and main storm track remaining
well north of the region...mainly across eastern Canada. High
temperatures will rebound into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1212 PM EDT Sunday...Indian summer for the long term
except some have yet to see a freeze/frost although upcoming
Monday night may have changed that. Other question, given lack
of non-summer weather is this just an extension of summer?

The persistent and well advertised above normal pattern will
continue in this period. Normal Highs/Lows should be 50s/30s
respectively yet it looks like 60s and perhaps touching 70 during
this stretch with primarily 40s at night.

We start this period on Wed with zonal flow aloft primarily along
and north of area and some ridging ahead of northern stream closed
low and trof that will pass well to our north and bring a slight
wind shift and perhaps a intl border/mtn sprinkle on Thu.

Thereafter, SE CONUS Ridge dominates the flow with SW flow aloft and
surface high across eastern seaboard with our are just on
northern extent for SW return flow. Another northern stream
system approaches Great Lakes late Sun/Sun ngt with a threat of
showers but for us...perhaps some increasing clouds Sun aftn.

Next weekend looks sunnier and perhaps warmer than this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Strong and gusty winds will exist from the
south and southwest through about 04z with gusts in the 30 to 40
knot range. A cold front will move across the area after 00z and
winds will eventually become more west and northwest with time
and start to taper off in speeds after 12z...but will still see
gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range. Ceilings through the period
will be in the VFR to MVFR categories. A line of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm will move across the area between 21z
and 03z...which may lower visibilities down into the MVFR
category at times.

Outlook...

Monday: MVFR/VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory continues through tonight with south winds
in the 20 to 30 knot range and gusts to 35 knots. This will
continue to create very choppy conditions...especially over the
northern portions of the lake. Watch for a wind shift to the
west and northwest after midnight tonight with winds gradually
tapering off.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NYZ026-027-087.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/SLW
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Evenson
MARINE...Evenson



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