Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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413
FXUS61 KBTV 050603
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING
COLDER TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE
A FEW FLURRIES. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST VERMONT EARLY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EST THURSDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S...AND A RECORD OF 54F
SET DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. IT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. POPS ARE IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE (15-20 PERCENT) FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S...BUT A FEW
UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE W-NW AT 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK MIDDAY FRIDAY. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER RUNS. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT FOR
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ALL THAT MUCH.
EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EST THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY WILL HAVE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BIG OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS REACHING OUR NORTHERN ADIRONDACK AND SOUTHERN SAINT
LAWRENCE COUNTY ZONES. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN
OUR FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION. HAVE
HIGH CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT
WITH CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA. MAINLY A COUPLE INCHES OR
LESS OF SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 356 PM EST THURSDAY....ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA...AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. GFS MAINLY KEEPS US IN SOME OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT CLEAR WITH WHERE THIS STORM WILL PASS IN
RELATION TO NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH ALSO LEAVES SNOW AMOUNTS
FAIRLY UNCLEAR FOR OUR AREA. WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION AND
MOVING EAST...AND SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY...WILL LIKELY SEE A
LONG PERIOD OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, TRENDING MAINLY SKC IN THE 20-00Z TIME
RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
UNRESTRICTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH MID
MORNING, THEN 6-12 KTS WITH OCCNL MODEST GUSTS TO 18 KTS AT
VERMONT TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ABATE LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06-00Z SUN...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

18Z SUN-12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR AT VT TERMINALS AND AT KPBG. SCT SNOW
SHOWERS AND OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KMSS/KSLK MONDAY AFTERNOON.

00Z TUE-00Z WED...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 54 DEGREES WAS SET AT BURLINGTON VT
ON FEBRUARY 4TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 52 SET IN 1991.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JMG/HANSON
CLIMATE...WFO BTV



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