Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 182330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE
WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MILDER FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COLD AIR BLOWING OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH WITH
THE CHANGING WINDS, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THAT
REGION. OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MORE TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT, THOUGH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON EVEN IN THE VALLEYS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST TUESDAY...

     SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
SNOWBELTS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...

THE FUN AND EXCITEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN A FAIRLY QUIET, ALBEIT COLD AND BREEZY DAY.
HOWEVER IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IT HAS
BEEN A TOTALLY DIFFERENT SITUATION. ONLY A FEW REPORTS IN THE
SPARSELY POPULATED AREA, BUT WHAT WE`VE HEARD IS OF SNOWFALL IN
SPOTS PUSHING 20 INCHES. SNOWFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES FROM THE TYX
RADAR ARE DOING A GREAT JOB AT HIGHLIGHTING THE AREAS GETTING
POUNDED, BUT ARE RUNNING LOW ON THE ACTUAL VALUES (PROBABLY
BECAUSE WE DON`T HAVE A PROPER SNOW-LIQUID RATIO IN PLACE).
HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOWN VIA RADAR ARE 12-15" IN SPOTS SOUTH OF
EDWARDS AND AROUND THE FOWLER -- BUT ADD ON 30-40% FOR THE LOW
BIAS, AND WE ARE TALKING 20"+. BY THE WAY, THE BAND IS ONLY ABOUT
15 MILES WIDE FOR WHERE THE MOST SNOW HAS FALLEN. THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF MESOCALE EFFECTS AT WORK!

CAN`T FORGET THE WINDS, SO FAR PEAK GUST I`VE SEEN IS MASSENA WITH
49MPH. SEVERAL OTHER MESONET SITES IN NORTHERN NY HAVE ALSO
REACHED GUSTS OF 40MPH.

ALL OF THE SNOW AND WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS I EXPECT THE SNOW BAND TO START A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AS WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS GO NORTHWEST, SO THAT
WILL THEN END THE THREAT FOR MORE SNOW IN ST LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN
COUNTIES. STILL ANOTHER 4-8" IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS IN WHICH THE
SNOW BAND MOVES OVER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WON`T CHANGE IT AT THIS TIME. MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED PRIOR TO
7AM.

WITH THAT SHORTWAVE, 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 50-55KT, SO THE IDEA
OF THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EVENING STILL APPEARS
VALID. HOWEVER WINDS RAPIDLY DROP OFF AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE, SO WE MAY SEE A BRIEF UPTICK IN THE WINDS IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, BUT THEN QUICKLY SETTLING DOWN AFTER 00Z-03Z. WILL KEEP
THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST TUESDAY...IN GENERAL, THE OVERALL FORECAST HASN`T
BEEN CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH AS 12Z GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR TO
ONE ANOTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS TO DEAL WITH ON THURSDAY -- PERHAPS WARNING LEVEL (6+
INCHES) FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. AT
THIS POINT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES UP
AS WE WANT TO GET THROUGH THIS CURRENT EVENT.

OTHERWISE, HERE ARE SOME RAMBLING THOUGHTS FOR EACH PERIOD OF THE
SHORT TERM:

WEDNESDAY: INITALLY THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BE STREAMING SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL AGAIN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ULTIMATELY SOUTH IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH. BY LATE IN THE DAY, I`D EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO BE MOVING RIGHT UP THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER,
THOUGH IT WON`T BE ALL THAT OF A ORGANIZED BAND LIKE WE ARE SEEING
TODAY, BUT COULD SEE 1-3" OR SO DURING THE DAY. REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET -- PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF VERMONT. STILL COLD, WITH HIGHS NOT REALLY GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING. NOT AS BREEZY EITHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER, WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW, THOUGH WITH THE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE, WE WON`T
REALLY BE ADVECTING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. SO LOTS OF TEENS
AND 20S FOR LOWS. MOISTURE INCREASES SOME, SO HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT PERHAPS 1-2" IN THE IMMEDIATE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

THURSDAY: PRETTY POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THIS AGAIN MEANS LAKE EFFECT STREAMER FROM LAKE ONTARIO
HEADING TOWARD ST LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE LOW GETS INTO A POSITION NORTH OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
BE COMING THROUGH. AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LAKE EFFECT STREAMER, IT
COULD VERY WELL TRANSPORT THE SNOWS FARTHER TO THE EAST IN THE
FORM OF A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. THE LOCALLY DERIVED SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES DECENT INSTABILITY LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THANKS
TO THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING, WE COULD SEE SOME SNOWS
RIGHT AT EVENING COMMUTE TIME FOR PART OF THE REGION. PERHAPS A
QUICK .5 TO 1" FOR MANY AREAS. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS WELL, THANKS
TO THE GRADIENT AROUND THAT STRONG LOW PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT GUSTS AGAIN IN THE 25-35MPH RANGE (AT LEAST).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EST TUESDAY...FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO NOVA SCOTIA. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE ITS SURGE INTO
THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. EARLY IN THE MORNING ON FRIDAY THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR SNOW BELTS AS THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE WEST SOUTH WEST. THAT WILL DRAG THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND FROM SOUTH OF ST LAWERNCE
AND FRANKLIN COUNTY INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONACKS.

AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSH OUT OF OUR AREA, A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
 THAT RIDGE WILL NET IN A COOL AND DRY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEK.  WE WILL
TREND FROM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY BE BRIEF AS THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT
NOW THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON WHEN THEN SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF SPREAD ON
WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOP WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SURFACE LOW.
THERE WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN THE ECWMF DEVELOPS A
WEAKER SHORT WAVE THAT BRINGS A SECOND SHOT OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WELL
TO THE NORTH AND DRIES THE AREA OUT AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. I CHOSE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO AND CALL FOR A WARMER
WET BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR AT SLK DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR IN PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BTV
PBG AND MSS.

WIND GUSTS STILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT GUSTS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TO LOWER A BIT (MORE IN THE 18-22 KT RANGE) GIVEN A
LOWER MIXING DEPTH. THUS CONTINUED CROSSWIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT BTV AND PBG TERMINALS UNTIL GUSTS SUBSIDE A BIT LATER
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED WEST WINDS TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE OTTAWA VALLEY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MSS...PBG
AND BTV IN THE 02-06Z TIME WINDOW. WON`T RULE OUT BRIEFLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES BUT SHOULD PREDOMINATLY BE IN THE 6-10SM RANGE. THAT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO TURN THE LAKE-EFFECT BAND
SOUTHWARD OUT OF SLK BY AROUND 06Z. UNTIL THAT POINT EXPECT
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME
DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW AT SLK.

FOR WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT SLK. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND PIVOTING BACK NORTHWARD LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-24 KTS. WITH
GUSTS NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...RISK OF CROSSWINDS NOT
AS HIGH.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THURSDAY - SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH BRIEF IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MTNS. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL COME INTO PLAY WITH MVFR AND OCCNL IFR SHSN
MORE PREVALENT. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM EST TUESDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS...BEFORE DECREASING FURTHER TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE COMMON IN OPEN WATERS
THIS EVENING. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN BAYS AND
INLETS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST DIRECTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ029-
     030-087.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>028-031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL/LOCONTO
MARINE...MUCCILLI


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