Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 171203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
703 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF
SLEET EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE OR AROUND
FREEZING AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA REDEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN CURRENT READINGS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING ALL
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS
REGION REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL HELP CREATE MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE REMAINING IN THE MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT PBG...BTV...AND RUT WHILE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT GUSTING A
BIT AT RUT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THU-00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM.

00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



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