Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 231640
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY SUNDAY AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY. A STRONG WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT SATURDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY
TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A FEW
CUMULUS/STRATOCU BEGINNING TO FORM OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. AFTER A
CHILLY START...TEMPS REBOUNDING NICELY WITH MOST AREAS WELL INTO
THE 40S AT THIS TIME. EXPECTED HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ALONG WITH SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH LATEST
UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS
AND CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP ALL FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL
SPOTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
NEEDED TO SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT MORNING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...COOL AND QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LOW PULLS STEADILY AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SLIDES BODILY SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. BLENDED MODEL 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
MODESTLY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SUNNY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER TIME
TONIGHT. WITH STEADY HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER AND WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF SEASONABLE
LATE MAY VALUES IN MOST SPOTS (40S). THERE COULD BE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY LATER AT NIGHT
AS DEEPENING WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES BEGIN ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY WITH MOST SPOTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH PERHAPS A WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER OR TWO IN THE 3-8 PM TIME FRAME ACROSS NC/NE VT.
NOMINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOWER-END SREF CALIBRATED
THUNDER PERCENTAGES AROUND 20 PERCENT SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA AS WELL, BUT WITH SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

THEN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING BY LATER AT NIGHT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER FAR
SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO MONDAY SFC WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY WHERE
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE EVIDENT. NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS WITH SOME OF OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES
LIKELY REMAINING DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY WITH SHARP
WARMING ALOFT AT ODDS WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED
AN IDEA CLOSER TO LATEST SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MEANS SHOWING COOLEST
READINGS NORTH AND EAST (L-M 70S) AND WARMER SOUTH AND WEST (UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S) WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY AS NORTHERN STREAM ATTEMPTS TO BRING A
FRONT INTO/ACROSS AREA MID/LATE WEEK BUT IT APPEARS TO HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION IS BORROWED FROM DAYSHIFT AS THINKING IS
GENERALLY THE SAME...NO WIDESCALE WETTING RAIN EVENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED YET CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEEK WILL
BRING ABOUT ADEQUATE CHANCES OF EATING INTO OUR PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS.

WARM FRONT MON NGT WILL HAVE GOOD 5H VORT TRAVELING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. QPF WILL GENERALLY BE <0.25 FOR THIS
WARM FRONT FEATURE WITH GREATEST ACROSS NRN NY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OUR CWA IS WELL ESTABLISHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LVL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED VORTS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE
BTWN 18C AND 22C DURING THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S WITH MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY SFC CONDITIONS BUT CLOUD
COVER WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONT MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES.

THE LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STORMS DURING MID WEEK WITH A BETTER THREAT LATE WEEK AS FRONT MAKES
ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS REGION BUT MAY GET HUNG UP AND MOVE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.

THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY PLACE BTV AS THE
WARMEST MAY ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH INCREASING HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL BECOME 10KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, WITH
EXCEPTION OF DRAINAGE WINDS AT KRUT OF 14006KT. THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT, DECK OF MID LEVEL CIGS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.

SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THINNING CLOUDS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 8-12KTS AND GUSTS DEVELOPING 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON.

12Z MONDAY - ...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN
THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 335 AM EDT SATURDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15 TO 25%) ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL EXACERBATE THESE
CONDITIONS TODAY. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START TODAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT
TO CONTAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...KGM
FIRE WEATHER...JMG



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