Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 290248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1028 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
SKY COVER FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA AND TRENDS. HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THESE ARE IN ADVANCE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT OR DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH A FEW
LOWER OUTLIERS IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 422 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING ANY MORNING FOG TO BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO
SUGGESTING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH MARINE LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH REMAINS
LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...TRENDING COOLER AND WETTER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
FEEL WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT TO OUR WEST AND RELATIVELY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE`LL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

GFS AND ECMWF STILL REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THOUGH NOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS. DEEP TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH A STRONG
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A RATHER MILD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHIFT INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME
AND A BLOCKING HIGH IS TO OUR EAST. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MENTIONED...COULD SEE A DELAY IN PRECIP RATHER THAN THE INCREASE
PRESENT ON THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE...BUT WILL PLAY A BLEND FOR NOW
SINCE WE`RE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE BTV
CWA SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND NOT PASSING
UNTIL SUNDAY WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING VLIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK OVERNIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...EXPECTING FOG TO REDEVELOP AT SLK/MPV BY 05Z
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. SOME MVFR BR
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT PBG/MSS/BTV AS WELL. FOG BREAKS UP
BETWEEN 13-14Z...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED VFR THOUGH SKIES WILL
THICKEN FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED AVIATION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AT KMPV/KSLK
LIKELY FROM 05-12Z EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF SPRINKLES TO THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 422 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM
(ASOS) AT SPRINGFIELD VERMONT (VSF) HAS NOT BEEN TRANSMITTING
OBSERVATIONS SINCE 1554Z (1154 AM EDT) ON THE 27TH OF SEPTEMBER.
THIS IS DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE OUTAGE BETWEEN THE SITE AND THE
FAA ADAS (ASOS DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEM). NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE RESTORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/SLW
EQUIPMENT...BTV





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