Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 251454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER QUEBEC WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 951 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MAINLY
VERMONT WIT SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED -SHSN WITHIN ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLD/SCT AND LIGHT
WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
HENCE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS/SKY COVER AND SLIGHT HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TWEAKS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 724 AM EST...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THEY
WERE 24 HOURS AGO. RATHER BALMY TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TO MID 20S TODAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND NAM MOS FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE... SO JUST HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TO 10 TO 15 ABOVE IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE THIS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH AND THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGER SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRY WITH ANOTHER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. MODELS ONCE AGAIN DIVERGE IN
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND ONWARD WITH TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM.
THOUGH DIFFERENT IN TIMING...BOTH MODELS RIGHT NOW SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH A COUPLE PERIODS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT
15Z THEN THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND REMAIN
THERE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z...BUT VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z BEFORE THE FRONT
PASSES...WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE BACK INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH BECAUSE THERE
HAVE NOT REALLY BEEN SNOW SHOWERS AT OUR SITES YET.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH/SLW
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



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