Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 191143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









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