Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 271425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD... THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF
EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON



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