Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271637
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TODAY...PROVIDING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...STILL A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA...BUT COVERAGE HAS DECREASED A BIT
OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO
CONTINUE AS AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALLOWS FOR RISE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND SUN...WITH SKIES
TRENDING SUNNIER LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. TEMPS ON TRACK
TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS...WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS...CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE BEHIND TODAYS MAIN TROUGHINESS MAY KEEP
CLOUDS LINGERING TONIGHT, BUT LOOKS TO EXIT SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAWN.
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW 925MB TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE
OPTED FOR GENERALLY DRY SCENARIO AS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC MAY DELAY PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH. SO EXPECT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT THURSDAY...WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN TO RETURN TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF HINTING AT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE STAYED WITH SUPERBLEND POPS
AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS.

ECMWF MODEL HAS A CLOSED UPPER LOW/UPPER ROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY TGHROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT KEEP THIS SYSTEM
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF HINTS AT
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS
MODEL HAS A WEAKER UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION AND KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE PERIODWHILE BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND HAVE
A DRY FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF MODEL
DOES BUILD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

THUS...EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK TODAY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN
SCATTERED NATURE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 012Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY
AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE -SHRA.

00Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR. IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK.
CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF


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