Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 142330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 637 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR
ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. STILL
LOOKING AT FAVORABLE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. AS A
REMINDER...FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...
TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY
AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW
IN PLACE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8".
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE
CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU
NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM
MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR
VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS.
WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS
FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE.

BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH
REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD
INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIFR FOG AT MPV/SLK TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK...WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY LOWERING TO LIFR OR LOWER. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12-13Z
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. THEN VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH
ONLY SCT CUMULUS AND AN INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST AT PBG) ON MONDAY FROM 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012-016.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.