Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBTV 270833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO
LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY HAIL REACHING SEVERE
CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL
FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS OF 14-15C
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GFS AND
ECMWF BRING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND PWATS EXCEEDING 1.6 INCHES. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF UPPER JET AND UPPER SHORTWAVE LAG BEHIND A
BIT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE PROGRESSIVE VORT MOVING INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ON SATURDAY.

GFS CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. ECMWF LAGS
FRONTAL PROGRESSION, KEEPING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 60S-L70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TREND
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S FALLING TOT EH 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AND 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION BACK INTO THE
M40D-M50S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT
SLK/MSS. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND
CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z
THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 04Z AT SLK/MPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF MPV/RUT/BTV WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.