Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBTV 052100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING WITH
SNOW ENDING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MAKES IT WAY NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND
UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW FOR A
TREND TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
LATEST SATELLITE PICS INDICATING THIS CLEARING TREND NOW IN
PROGRESS...WITH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO THICKER CLOUDS LATER AT NIGHT AS FLOW
BACKS TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH ALLOWS FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A BIT COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
JUST A DUSTING TO MAYBE 2 INCHES...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS MILD ENOUGH SO THAT A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF PASSES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST NORTHERN ZONES. BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BTV4 AND BTV12 BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT FADING AWAY
QUICKLY. DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT
NEVER MAKES IT QUITE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEREFORE NOT TOO COLD OF A DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN SET UP FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WE ARE A BIT STUCK BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEMS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY...SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT FOR
ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS WEAK AND NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO HELP
WITH FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF BASE. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK A COLD TROF DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING US
SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE COASTAL
STORM THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT PREVIOUSLY NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
STAY WELL OUT TO SEA AND NOT IMPACT OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
TRENDING SKC BY THIS EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE SLK WHERE
OCCASIONALMVFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS VFR AT MOST SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...EXCEPT SLK/MSS WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS SLK/MSS ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.