Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 291139
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Memorial Day weekend continues to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 715 AM EDT Sunday...visible imagery now showing clouds
moving in from our west associated with upper trof...and clouds
moving in from our east associated with back door front across new
england. There are some lower clouds with this second bank of
clouds. may be a tough forecast with clouds and resulting temps.
still feel good about 90s in the champlain valley though. previous
discussion follows.

interesting weather set up today. upper level ridge still hangs
tough over our eastern zones today as an upper level trof
approaches from the west. also have a backdoor front which will be
edging into our zones east of the Greens from NH bringing clouds
and cooler temps. Expect our third 90 degree day in a row here in
the Champlain valley with warm air still in place and lots of
sunshine this morning. With approaching shortwave trof and some
surface based instability will have some showers and thunderstorms
develop this afternoon...mainly across northern New York. PWATS
surge to about 1.8" this afternoon...therefore feel that we could
have heavy rain with any thunderstorms and have indicated this in
the forecast. do feel that models are overdoing the cape once
again. heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms continues into the
first half of the overnight hours then storms will die off as they
move eastward into more stable air and with loss of daytime
heating. Temperatures will remain mild tonight as plenty of cloud
cover remains in place...generally mid 60s and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Surface front then pushes slowly across
the area during Monday with continued solid chances of showers and
a few thunderstorms. Deeper moisture plume pulls east over time so
better shower coverage will become increasingly confined to our
eastern counties as the day progresses. Scattered additional
rainfall totals of up to a quarter inch will be possible across
the east with lesser amounts further west, especially in the St
Lawrence Valley. A trailing, rather flat upper trough then pulls
through the area by Tuesday with little fanfare other than some
variable cloud cover and perhaps a spotty light shower or sprinkle
across the northern mountains. Temperatures remain seasonably warm
during the period but not to degree of recent warmth - mainly mid
70s to lower 80s for highs and overnight lows Monday night in the
50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather then continues through
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with mean high pressure in
control of regional conditions. Little airmass change is expected
with daily highs in the 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the
50s to locally near 60.

By late week models remain broadly consistent in showing a
progressive shortwave trough and attendant front pulling east from
the Great Lakes/Midwest with a renewed threat of showers. Some
uncertainty in ascertaining which period(s) will have the greatest
threat of precipitation as longer-range solutions now showing an
evolution toward more pronounced upper longwave troughing across
the northeast by later next weekend. For now will concentrate
higher values in the Friday/Saturday time frame associated with
the frontal zone, beyond which things become somewhat unclear.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12z Monday...fog has lifted already at slk. now forecast
challenge will be extent of low clouds moving into the region from
our east due to back door front in new england. Additional heating
and increasing depth of moisture should support at least scattered
showers/possible storms this afternoon. Latest short- term
guidance points to a start time around 16z off the Adirondacks and
then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm capable of heavy rain
and associated brief IFR visibilities. Maintained VCSH for this
period with prevailing VFR conditions. Winds becoming
south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 12z Monday through Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Monday early
evening time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows:

                          5/29
BTV - Burlington        89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...BTV


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