Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
100 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. RUNOFF
FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AREA WIDE.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK,
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN VERMONT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
HEADING INTO FRIDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 957 PM EST WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE STEADIER RAIN THAT WAS OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAS MOVED EAST INTO MAINE AT THIS TIME. THUS...MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEEING A BREAK IN THE RAIN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...FURTHER UPSTREAM COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED FINE LINE FROM WESTERN NEW YORK STATE SOUTH TO EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE SEEN WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 KNOTS
WITH THIS FINE LINE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ALSO
EXPECTING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LOW AT 12Z
THURSDAY OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEARBY AND SOUTHWEST CHANNELING IN SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDS SHOW STEEP INVERSION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WASHES OUT AND BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL
MIXED AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 50 KTS
POSSIBLE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE DAY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY ON
NORTHEAST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LESSER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS
IN THE ADIRONDACKS INTO WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HIGH WIND
WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE AS ISSUED...WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WEST CLINTON COUNTY AND ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
COOLING THINGS OFF IN THE ADIRONDACKS WHILE DOWNSLOPE MAY CONTINUE
SOME WARMTH IN WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

LOW DEPARTS TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROAD RIDGE OVER
EASTERN US WILL CREATE GENERALLY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH NEAR
NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. UPSHOT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BEHIND THE CHRISTMAS DAY COLD FRONT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL VERY QUIET EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURING MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BREAKING DOWN...WITH A FAST/PROGRESSIVE
CONFLUENT FLW DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...ACRS THE
CONUS...A MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH SHARP TROF OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM TROF INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS. ALL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W`S
AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTERACTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUB TROPICAL
JET...ESPECIALLY TWD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. CRNT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR THE ECMWF TO COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN THIS FAST
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WITH LITTLE AMPLIFICATION AND SYSTEMS
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GEM AND
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ITS SEEMS LATELY EURO DOES BETTER IN
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/CLOSED SYSTEMS WHILE GFS TENDS TO BE BETTER IN
THE FAST PROGRESS FLW PATTERNS ACRS THE CONUS. THIS WL SUPPORT BLW
AVERAGE CHCS FOR PRECIP...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY...AND WL PUSH A COLD FRNT THRU OUR CWA.
THIS SFC CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB RH AND WEAK 5H VORTICITY WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WE ARE WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR AGAIN...BEFORE ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND FRNT
ON SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -10C BY 00Z
MONDAY AND BTWN -13C AND -15C BY 00Z TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF...MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE
MTNS...WITH LLVL CAA SQUEEZING OUT REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SFC RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NY FROM TUES INTO WEDS...WL KEEP FCST
MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES...I HAVE
CARRIED SOME CHC POPS TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...LIFR/IFR CEILINGS, PERIODS OF MIST, AND LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR START THE PERIOD. THEN A SHARP COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTY WINDS/ACCOMPANYING TURBULENCE.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
AT 40-50KT IS ABOVE A STRONG INVERSION THAT WILL ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY 08Z AT KMSS/KSLK, 09Z/10Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
11Z-13Z AT KMPV/KRUT. THIS MEANS STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN,
RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-45KTS IN NORTHERN NY AND 25-35KTS ACROSS
VERMONT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST.

ALSO EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. WHILE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WITH PRECIPITATION MORE FAVORED AT MPV AND SLK BEHIND
FRONT.

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO CHRISTMAS
EVENING/NIGHT. BUT DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY-12Z FRIDAY...MVFR TO VFR WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TO ABOUT
10 KTS OR LESS.

12Z FRIDAY-...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z SATURDAY-06Z MONDAY...A CHC OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS/MPV.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE BACKED OFF ON STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TO A HALF TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWMELT TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS STEADY MAINLY IN THE 40S. SNOWPACK HOLDING
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, AND MUCH OF THE SWE IS
FORECAST TO BE RELEASED IN THE UPCOMING MELT EPISODE. ALTHOUGH
LESS RAIN FORECAST...COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND ONGOING SNOWMELT
CAN STILL POTENTIALLY CREATE FLOODING. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SEE
SHARP RISES TO BANKFULL...AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO SNOW
BLOCKED DITCHES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON
HOW FORECAST RAINFALL PLAYS OUT BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A FLOOD RISK
TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH. EAST BRANCH AUSABLE AT AUSABLE FORKS NY,
OTTER CREEK AT CENTER RUTLAND, AND WINOOSKI AT ESSEX JUNCTION OF
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH FORECAST RISES TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY (THURSDAY). SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PEAK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHWEST AND RETURNING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER...
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD...THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2
TO 4 FEET THIS EVENING...AND 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO 1 TO 3 FEET LATER THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL AS ALONG OPEN AND SOUTHWARD FACING SHORES.
INCREASED CHOP IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ026-027-031-087.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ028>030-034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI



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