Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN
VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6
TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID WEEKEND
AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO ENSUE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. THE REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY BEGINNING SATURDAY AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES AND THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS RISE BACK
INTO THE 60S (MODERATE MUGGINESS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE RIDING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...SHOULD SEE A
MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMTH...AND
THEREFORE MODEST CAPE VALUES. LOOKING AT HIGHS 77-82F. CHANCES FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION. LOWS LIKELY NOT FALLING
OUT OF THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE NEARING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE PLACE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS WITH
BOUNDARY NEARBY COULD BE LOOKING AT A THREAT OF SOME STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL SHOW 75-82F FOR NOW...BUT IF FRONT IS SLOWER AND
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS...THESE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING BY MONDAY AND
HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE IN THE DAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHWEST US AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. STILL WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE ON TUESDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY
TRUE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH
WARMTH...HUMIDITY...AND ANY PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE...THERE WILL BE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE VERMONT TAF
SITES...12Z TO 15Z AT BTV...12Z TO 21Z AT MPV...AND THEN 15Z TO 00Z
AT RUT WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH FOR NOW. RAIN THREAT HAS MAINLY ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CREATE SOME LOWER
OROGRAPHIC- ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH SOME
MVFR CEILIINGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. WIDESPREAD FOG NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU-06Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

06Z SAT-00Z MON: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...MUCCILLI







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