Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 262326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL BE DYING
DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 717 PM EDT SUNDAY...STILL A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE
LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS. AS WE LOSE THE
DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
DISSIPATE AS GOING FORECAST INDICATES. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND POPS FOR THIS
EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...BUT OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING...IN OUR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AREAS ESPECIALLY...AND SOME FOG FORMATION IN THE TYPICALLY
FOG PRONE SPOTS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILD...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON.
DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE
SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AIRMASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A
LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON
THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65
TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME
DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND
SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH,
A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER VARIABLY
LIGHT FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS. CIGS GENERALLY SCT (OR TRENDING SCT)
FROM 035-050AGL THROUGH 00Z AFTER WHICH SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR.
WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH MODELS HIGHLIGHTING
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE I`VE INCLUDED AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VCSH) AT KMPV/KRUT IN THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME. AFTER 00Z VFR CONDS CONTINUE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY IFR IN LOW STRATUS
AND/OR BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE 06-13Z TIME FRAME. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT KMPV.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AS WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN A PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZATION. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 2-8 PM EACH DAY
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT
KMPV/KSLK.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG


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