Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 160541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1254 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT
EXISTS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE
COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. QUITE CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY.
THEN CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS
BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR
MOST. UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY
AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK
NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG





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