Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 022307
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ANY REMAINING STRATOCU
WILL BE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE
OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-
CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT
BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SLK/MPV
OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL RH HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SUMMER FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
DECOUPLE IN BOTH MPV AND SLK WHICH SHOULD ENABLE BOTH SITES TO
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. WITH ALL OF THE ANTECEDENT RAIN, FOG
WILL LIKELY SET IN. CURRENTLY I EXPECT TIMING OF FOG TO SET IN BY
8Z IN SLK AND AT 7Z FOR MPV. ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT WITH
DAYBREAK THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND SO BY 11Z EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL


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