Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 160224
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1024 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and mostly clear to partly cloudy night on tap for the
North Country as temperatures fall into the 50s to low 60s.
Warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday along with plentiful
sunshine, before chances for showers and thunderstorms are
renewed on Monday as another upper trough shifts into the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1024 PM EDT Saturday...A surface ridge axis extends from
the mid-west into the Northeast, providing drier conditions and
mostly clear skies. Expect patchy fog to develop under light to
calm winds, mostly clear skies, and remaining low level
moisture. Clouds ahead of approaching shortwave that is
currently moving into Lake Huron are expected to spread into the
St Lawrence Valley around 06Z and continue across most of
western and northern VT around sunrise. As clouds appear to be
mid-level and somewhat thin on IR, do not expect much of an
impact on temps, nor the potential for some radiation fog to
develop in the favored valleys. Tonight`s lows will range from
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Through Sunday night, the North Country will be in-between
troughs with little forcing around to spark any showers or
thunderstorms. Can`t rule out an isolated diurnally and/or
terrain driven shower with some weak surface instability around
as temps rise back to seasonal normals in the upper 70s to low
80s and dewpoints hovering around 60, but by and large, it
should be a dry and partly sunny Sunday. By Sunday night the
next trough (more on that below) edges closer and while I`ve
introduced some low/mid chance PoPs across our western zones,
most of the region east of the Adirondacks will remain dry.
There is a geomagnetic storm watch out for auroral activity as a
CME will impact the earths atmosphere tomorrow afternoon and
night, so sky watchers should be aware of the potential for
northern lights if we can remain clear enough. Tough call on
that right now, but hopefully we`ll have a clearer picture
tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...Still looking at the potential for
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall as upper trough is
slow to move across the area Monday and Monday. Flow aloft is
weak also and will be able to support the training of echoes to
enhance that potential for heavy rainfall. Looking at
precipitable water values over the area it does not looking like
they will be higher than normal...which will help to not create
an even greater threat. So Monday morning starts out dry and it
will take the slow moving upper trough and increasing
instability to enhance the potential for convection in the
afternoon and evening hours. Situation will definitely need to
be monitored closely. Mainstem rivers are in good shape but
smaller rivers and streams may be most susceptible. High
temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
lows Monday night in the 60s to around 70 as clouds and decaying
convection lingers over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...Upper trough still has not moved
east of the area on Tuesday so should see more showers and
storms forming over the area. But there will be a gradual push
eastward later on Tuesday to help limit the heavy rain threat
any bring showers to and end by Tuesday night. Trends in the
data now supports the idea that much of Wednesday and Thursday
will be relatively dry and with westerly flow
developing...warmer and more moist conditions will develop.
Looking at highs in the 80s both days with some locations as
high as the upper 80s by Thursday. Higher dew points moving in
will keep low temperatures in the 60s to around 70 during this
time period. Eventually another trough moves down from Canada
Thursday night into early Friday for another chance of
convection...but with temperatures returning to more seasonal
levels Friday and Saturday. Much of this period will be dry as
well with high pressure building down into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Mainly VFR conditions will continue
through midnight with a few isolated showers dissipating and
moving east out of region as we speak. Skies clear to mainly
SKC for the night with some upstream scattered mid-clouds
possible affecting northern terminals. In addition, expect LIFR
fog to develop at the climo favored sites of KMPV and KSLK after
tonight, and think development will be slightly earlier than
normal with temps meeting crossover values in the 03-05Z
timeframe. Fog burns off after 11-12Z with just some scattered
mid-clouds around through the remainder of the TAF period and
perhaps some bkn skies and isold shower at KMSS late. Winds
turn light south/southwest overnight and then west Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/KGM
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Lahiff/SLW



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