Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 290536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1253 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD GRIDS AND
DECREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...BASED ON MORE CLOUDS/WARMER TEMPS.
CRNT IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA
THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. THESE
CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH SLOWER FALLING TEMPS...HAS RESULTED IN
LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG SO FAR...WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. CONTINUED TO MENTION IN CLIMO FAVORITE VALLEYS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO M/UPPER 50S CPV/SLV. GIVEN LIGHT
TRRN DRIVEN WINDS...ANTICIPATE THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS WITH THE TYPICAL MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG LLVL INVERSION. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 422 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING ANY MORNING FOG TO BURN OFF
BY MID MORNING. SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO
SUGGESTING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH MARINE LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH REMAINS
LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...TRENDING COOLER AND WETTER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
FEEL WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT TO OUR WEST AND RELATIVELY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE`LL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

GFS AND ECMWF STILL REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THOUGH NOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS. DEEP TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY
IN THE WEEK...SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH A STRONG
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
INCREASING P-GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A RATHER MILD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS LIKELY IN THE 50S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN
ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHIFT INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME
AND A BLOCKING HIGH IS TO OUR EAST. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MENTIONED...COULD SEE A DELAY IN PRECIP RATHER THAN THE INCREASE
PRESENT ON THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE...BUT WILL PLAY A BLEND FOR NOW
SINCE WE`RE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE BTV
CWA SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND NOT PASSING
UNTIL SUNDAY WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00Z...WITH PATCHY IFR/LIFR FG AT KMPV/KSLK
06-13/14Z EXPECTED. WINDS TRENDING N/NE AT NRN TERMINALS AFTER 12Z
...THOUGH LIGHT/VRB AT KMPV/KRUT. AFTER 00Z DEVELOPING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW (NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS) WILL BRING MORE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO THE REGION. CONDS TRENDING SCT/BKN
MVFR AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AT NRN NY
TERMINALS...THOUGH SCT/BKN MVFR AT VT TERMINALS WITH E/SE MARITIME
FLOW. SOME PATCHY -DZ POSSIBLE AT KMPV DURING THIS PERIOD.

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 05-12Z EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF
SPRINKLES TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 422 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM
(ASOS) AT SPRINGFIELD VERMONT (VSF) HAS NOT BEEN TRANSMITTING
OBSERVATIONS SINCE 1554Z (1154 AM EDT) ON THE 27TH OF SEPTEMBER.
THIS IS DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE OUTAGE BETWEEN THE SITE AND THE
FAA ADAS (ASOS DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEM). NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN SERVICE WILL BE RESTORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG/SLW
EQUIPMENT...BTV







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