Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF


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