Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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727
FXUS61 KBTV 181656
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1156 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The wintry mix will taper off during the day today, with most
precipitation limited to the mountains by tonight. Low pressure
south of Long Island early this morning will move slowly eastward
south of New England today. A ridge of high pressure will slowly
build into the north country on Thursday and will remain over the
region through this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1156 AM EST Wednesday...Decreasing trend of precipitation
continues late this morning and should remain more spotty in
nature this afternoon. Have adjusted forecast to reflect this
scenario. Otherwise going forecast in good shape. Should still
see quite a bit of clouds tonight with fog being rather
persistent in some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Generally looking at improving
conditions for the Thursday/Friday timeframe with some lingering
upslope light rain/snow showers focused over the high terrain
diminishing Thursday, and strong 500mb ridging building in aloft
for Thursday night and Friday, offering dry conditions to end
the work week. Even though strong subsidence will be shifting in
with the ridge, forecast soundings are indicating abundant
moisture trapped beneath a low-level inversion holding tough
through much of Friday and potentially longer into the weekend.
Thus, have adjusted sky cover to indicate cloudier skies and
subsequently lower temperatures slightly with highs both days in
the mid/upper 30s and lows Thursday night in the mid 20s to low
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned upper ridge and
surface high pressure continue to dominate the North Country`s
weather going into the weekend with decaying shortwave energy
shifting out of the central CONUS into the Ohio Valley falling
apart as it hits the ridge and providing nothing more than some
clouds. Subsidence aloft looks to finally win out over low level
moisture as well so looking at partly cloudy skies through the
weekend along with above normal temperatures in the upper 30s to
low 40s.

Next potential system looks to impact the region early next
week as a shortwave trough pulling east out of the lee of the
Rockies Saturday night develops a strong surface low over the
southeast states Sunday, then tracks northeastward along the
east coast during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Ptype could be
an issue with this one with blocking high pressure in place over
Nova Scotia keeping low levels close to or below freezing,
especially east of the Green Mountains Monday evening, but
eventually a strong low/mid level jet pushes a warm front
through the region Monday night transitioning precip to rain. At
least that`s what the models are telling us now, but there`s
lots of time for things to change so stay tuned. For certain
though, temperatures look to remain very mild by late- January
standards with highs continuing to push into the 40s, and lows
in the 20s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 02Z Thursday...MVFR ceilings most locations except LIFR
KMSS. Low level moisture will remain locked in the area during
the TAF period and see little improvement in ceiling heights.
Mainly snow to continue over most of the area except KMSS where
northeast flow locks in upper 20s temperatures and light
freezing rain/mist. Precipitation to gradually come to an end
this afternoon when upper trough moves out of area.

Winds will be southerly at 5-10 knots for most of the area with
KRUT seeing some gusts around 20 knots. KMSS will be the lone
exception as northeasterly flow stays locked in though most of the
period with winds 05-15 knots.

12Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR
rain/snow showers.

00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure
will be over the region.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Hanson



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