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000
FXUS61 KBTV 150508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT SATURDAY...RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BEING
ON THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGE. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MORNING. OVERALL QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 418 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. HI-RES MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC THAT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES POPS ALONG THE INTL BORDER...BUT THE AREA WILL
LARGELY REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR SATURDAY COMPARED
TO FRIDAY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WE TRANSITION TO A FAST ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY MID-DAY THROUGH EVENING. STILL HAVE SOME
RESERVATIONS ABOUT THIS SINCE SOME OF THIS ENERGY SEEMS TO
DEVELOP SPURIOUSLY OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...BUT HARD TO
IGNORE THE TRENDS SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SO MUCH FOR A DRY FATHER`S DAY...JUST GET OUT EARLY TO
ENJOY IT! SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THOUGH GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME MINOR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...THOUGH SKIES LIKELY
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING ONLY
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 418 PM EDT FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN DECENT
OVERALL CONSISTENCY DURING NEXT WEEK...HIGHLIGHTING THE GENERAL
IDEA OF BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION AND
THE NORTHEAST AS A WHOLE. PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A FAIRLY
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
NORTH ON MONDAY AND DRAG A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
TUESDAY. THUS HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/SCT THUNDER WILL BE
FOCUSED DURING THIS PERIOD WHEN BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT ARE PRESENT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BRIDGE UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH LARGE-SCALE
DRYING AND MAINLY CLR/SUNNY SKIES. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOME
EVIDENCE THAT ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY ATTEMPT TO
REINVIGORATE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RENEWED
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEING THIS FAR OUT (DAY 7)...CAPPED
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THESE TIME
RANGES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING...THOUGH PERIODS OF
IFR MIST/FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK AND PBG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BE WEAKENING THROUGH SUNSET. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH
SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER FOG THREAT THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT SLK AND PBG. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE
ABATING SHORTLY BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 8-10KTS WITH GUSTS 15-18KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
IN SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION.
PATCHY BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESP AT KSLK/KMPV.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG AND ASSOCIATED IFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH/LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO