Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 281942
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
242 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather this evening will give way to increasing clouds and
periods of light precipitation by Tuesday, and again by later
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some light mixed precipitation will
be possible for a few hours Tuesday morning, especially across
eastern Vermont where a light glaze of ice will be possible on area
roads. Temperatures will trend seasonably mild by later tomorrow
into Wednesday before trending cooler with scattered rain and snow
shower activity to round out the late week time frame.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 221 PM EST Monday...Finally some welcomed sunshine has
arrived across a good portion of the area this afternoon as weak
surface high pressure has bridged across the area. With the
abundance of morning clouds temperatures have been rather slow
to respond, though widespread readings in the 30s to around 40
still look reasonable for max values.

By tonight well advertised warm occlusion pushes bodily north
and east toward the region with steadier light precipitation
arriving in earnest across the western half of the forecast area
by sunrise and across the remainder of the area by mid-morning.
With mainly clear skies through the first half of the night
feel many areas will radiate quite well so continued idea of
minimum temperatures in the lower to mid 20s northeast, mid 20s
to around 30 in western VT/Dacks, and in the lower 30s SLV. As
precipitation arrives, a 1-3 hour potential of mixed p-type
concerns will exist across northern NY, and a tad longer across
eastern VT where progs still show some minor icing issues will
be possible. Accordingly a Freezing Rain Advsy will be issued
for this area during the 6 am to noon time frame. As boundary
layer continues to slowly warm, any mixed pcpn should transition
to light rain in all areas by early afternoon.

As front lifts north and east through the area, steadier light
rain will begin to taper off across our western counties by mid
to late afternoon leaving just some scattered light shower
activity here and there. Temperatures again tricky depending on
pbl mixing and eventual placement of front, though mid to upper
30s across eastern VT, lower to mid 40s Champlain Valley, Dacks,
northern SLV, and lower 40s srn SLV still appear reasonable at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Monday...By Tuesday evening the occluded low
will push the precip out of the North Country as dry air works
in behind the warm front. Temps by Tuesday late will be warm
enough to support all rain with max layer temps pushing 4C- 5C
in the 925-700mb layer. I agree with the previous forecaster
there there will likely be periods of drizzle mixed in late
Tuesday night with the saturated RH layer becoming rather
shallow but didn`t have the confidence on timing because 12z
guidance is showing the precip lagging behind 2-3 hours slower
than the 00z suite so given the slight delay I just went with
all light rain showers.

By midnight Tuesday conditions should be dry yet with the
strong warm air advection and cloudy skies expect temps to stay
warmer than normal only falling to the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The second wave of precip lifts towards the north as a secondary
low pressure system begins to develop over the mid Atlantic
region and gradually moves towards New England. With above
normal mild temps expect all rain with the second precip event
as well.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Monday...Unsettled weather will be the theme
of the extended forecast as low pressure will persist until the
weekend.

Wednesday night expect the rain to still be falling however we may
see a transition to heavy wet snow at elevations above 2500ft
as temps slowly begin to cool overnight. Total accumulations
across the North Country are expected to be near 0.50" for both
events for Northern New York and range from 0.75"-1.5" for the
combined events across Vermont with the higher rainfall totals
across the southern locations. The main shift in the guidance
was to bring the bulk of the heaviest precip for the Wednesday
system further south over the Catskills with slightly smaller
precip totals over the Greens and the rest of southern Vermont.
The combination of both events, and the warmer temperatures
will mean that much of the snowpack in the higher elevations
will melt and runoff into the rivers. Modest 2-3 foot rises in
the rivers are expected with all of the water expected to
remain in the banks and no flooding expected.

For the remainder of the week and into the weekend, the upper
level low will slowly push towards the Northeast. This results
in seasonable temperatures with highs in the 30s and lows in the
20s. Copious amounts of low/mid level moisture with marginal
forcing will lead to several periods of off and on orographic
rain/snow showers under west/northwest synoptic flow each day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR through 09Z as high pressure bridges
atop and east of the area. Winds light and variable, trending
light south to southeasterly overnight around 5 kts
(northeasterly at KMSS terminal). After 09Z warm/occluded front
and associated precipitation move into the area with widespread
MVFR/IFR conditions expected (mainly VFR at KRUT). Mainly rain
expected, though precipitation could be mixed with -PL/FZRA for
a few hours at onset at selected terminals in mid to late
morning. Winds continue south to southeasterly (northeasterly at
KMSS) and occasionally gusty to 20-25 kts after 12Z, especially
at KRUT where modest downsloping effects will occur.

Outlook 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...

18Z Tuesday through Thursday...widespread rain exits Tuesday
evening, then reblossoms later Wed/Wed evening with low
pressure. Steadier pcpn tapers off by Thursday though scattered
rain/snow showers continue through the end of the period.
BKN/OVC mainly VFR/MVFR conds expected through the period,
though occasional IFR possible in the Tue night-Thu morning time
frame.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG



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