Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231754 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 154 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure system will depart across the St. Lawrence Seaway today, bringing an end to rain and snow showers late this morning. Some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain of northern into northeastern Vermont could persist into this afternoon. Variably cloudy and seasonably cool conditions will prevail Monday through Wednesday. Another wave of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will bring the next chance for rain, generally later Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 134 PM EDT Sunday...At 1730Z, lingering light flurries/sprinkles have generally ended across the Northeast Kingdom. Strong low-level drying underway, and has allowed for mostly clear skies to develop from the Champlain Valley wwd...and also across s-central VT. Should gradually see some BINOVC develop across n-central and nern VT next few hours. Afternoon highs generally upr 40s to around 50 for the Champlain/St. Lawrence and CT river valleys. Elsewhere, steep lapse rates (and clouds across n-central/nern VT yielding colder readings in the low-mid 40s most locations. Gradient flow will remain moderately strong through sunset, as 980mb sfc low across ern Quebec slowly fills while drifting ewd north of the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. Will keep 15-25mph with a few gusts to 35mph next 1-3 hrs, before gradually diminishing with slow weakening of p-gradient and loss of steep lapse rates as PBL cooling occurs toward sunset. Generally quiet conditions tonight. A minor shortwave trough in fast WNW flow 700-500mb layer will pass to our south across the srn tier of NY and PA. This will yield some increase in mid-level clouds, especially across the srn half of the forecast area. That said, associated light pcpn should remain south of our area. West winds continue 5-10 mph overnight, which will mitigate radiative cooling and keep overnight lows mainly mid-upr 30s, except low 30s in the 1-2kft elevational band. Generally quiet weather expected Monday. Broad cyclonic flow remains in place aloft, and it appears we`ll have another surge of low-level CAA and possible passage of weak mid-level shortwave trough. Shallow instability layer will produce clouds by afternoon and possible light upslope precipitation into the Adirondacks and nrn Green mtns. Freezing levels generally 2000-2500ft, so can`t rule out some flurries down to about 1000ft in elevation Monday aftn, especially wrn slopes. May see passing sprinkles in the valley locations, and kept PoPs generally less than 20%. High temps generally low-mid 40s, except upr 40s near Lake Champlain and with downslope warning effects across ern Windsor county/VSF area. Winds will be W-NW winds 8-15kts with gusts developing in the afternoon with presence of steeper lapse rates.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 411 AM EDT Sunday...The north country will remain under cyclonic flow from the departing surface low pressure area over eastern Canada through the period. Expecting mainly upslope rain and snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains through the period. Have gone with slight chance pops through the period to account for this. Have kept the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys dry through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 411 AM EDT Sunday...On Wednesday, one more day of upslope rain and snow showers across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, as the region remains under cyclonic flow. High pressure area to build east from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, so expecting fair and dry weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. ECMWF and GFS models in good agreement in showing rain showers moving into the region late Thursday afternoon ahead of a warm front. Rain and snow showers will continue across the region Thursday night and Friday. An upper trough will move through the region on Saturday, so will continue with chance pops for rain and snow showers. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
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Through 18z Monday...Conditions have improved to VFR all TAF locations with strong sfc low departing across ern Quebec north of the St. Lawrence Seaway. Main issue will be continued gusty W-WNW winds through 00Z, generally sustained 10-20kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds will diminish to 5-10kt after sunset. Minor upr trough passing to our south will bring increasing mid-level clouds overnight, though should remain VFR. Outside chance of MVFR at KSLK 06-12Z Monday with upslope flow conditions, but kept current TAF VFR. WNW winds generally 8-15kts after 14Z Monday. Outlook 18z Monday through Friday... 18z Monday through 00z Wednesday: Broad upper trough in place bringing variable cloudiness. Generally VFR ceilings, with possible MVFR showers and higher elevation snow showers late Monday afternoon through Tuesday vcnty of the nrn Mts. Increasing chances for MVFR ceilings at MPV/SLK later Monday night through Tuesday, with periods of light precipitation and MVFR cigs/vsby conditions. 00Z Wednesday through 00Z Saturday: Next low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley brings chances for widespread showers and periods of MVFR conditions late Thursday through the first half of Friday.
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&& .MARINE... AS OF 435 AM EDT Sunday...Lake Wind Advisory continues for Lake Champlain. Strong west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots continue across Lake Champlain today. This will result in wave heights of 3 to 5 feet. The highest waves will be along eastern shores exposed to a greater fetch on west winds; specifically those locations adjacent to the open waters north of the Charlotte Ferry and south of Valcour Island. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...Banacos/KGM SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Banacos MARINE...MV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.