Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260533 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 133 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Intermittent showers will persist during the overnight hours. A developing coastal low near Long Island will bring an additional period of steady rainfall during Friday morning. Friday will be cloudy and cool overall with high temperatures remaining in the 50s. The upcoming weekend will feature a dry Saturday with some scattered showers possible Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1011 PM EDT Thursday...Southeasterly wind gusts continue to decrease along the western slopes of the Green Mountains late this evening. Still a couple of isold gusts 35-39mph at Wells and Mendon, VT...but overall trend is downward and we`ve chosen to cancel the wind advisory a couple of hours early (at 02Z). Please see our Public Information Statement from earlier this evening for peak wind gust information along the western slopes. Center of slow-moving/closed 500mb low is located across wrn PA and far swrn NY at 02Z. Mid-level dry slot on ern periphery of the low center had shifted nwd into our region, but is no disappearing from WV imagery as new cyclogenesis takes hold south of Long Island. Seeing some fast moving showers moving NNWWD across central VT and the ern slopes of the Adirondacks. However, there will be another round of more significant rain toward daybreak (09-10Z) as activity south of Long Island wraps NNWWD in newly forming cold conveyor belt around coastal low. This will set up a rather raw/cloudy/rainy Friday with high temperatures generally in the 50s. Afternoon high temperatures will be about 15 deg below normal for late May. Light NE winds will back into the north toward dawn with winds generally N-NE 10-15 mph during the daylight hours on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...Vertically stacked low pressure system near Nova Scotia Friday evening moves east and out to sea overnight Friday night. Some lingering light rain showers or drizzle early will gradually dry up from west to east with some gradual clearing by Sat morning. Lows mainly in the 50s. Saturday will see weak surface high pressure build in to start the Memorial Day weekend. Partly cloudy skies and 850 temps of 8-10C will yield warmer temperatures with highs 70s. Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... The long term starts out on Sunday with an upper level ridge over the east coast with a developing light southwest flow at the surface as weak high pressure moves out to sea east of New England. 850mb temps are around 10-11C which should yield high temps in the 70s perhaps upper 70s in the valleys. As the ridge shifts east, cloud cover increases in the afternoon and evening as an upper level low pressure system tracks west of the Great Lakes with warm advection during the overnight hours into early Memorial day with a period of showers. A weak cold front Monday evening trough will swing through with shortwave energy, bringing with it showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two with some marginal instability. Tuesday through Thursday there will be on and off mainly afternoon and evening showers as a second cold front and several post frontal trofs swing through the region. Cold advection will bring 850mb temps down from 8-10C on Tue to around 6C Wed and 4C on Thu. The cold advection and daytime heating will contribute to very weak instability and scattered showers. Corresponding high temperatures will be start out in the 70s on Tue falling back into the 60s Wed and Thu. Lows will in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Saturday...Very challenging first 6 to 12 hours for our taf sites...as conditions change from vfr/mvfr to widespread ifr. Radar shows a band of light to moderate rain rotating toward our taf sites this morning and utilizing the HRRR composite reflectivity has this at RUT by 07-08z...MPV around 08z...and BTV/PBG by 09z. Expecting cigs/vis trending toward mvfr conditions with band of rain...and as winds shift to the north/northwest btwn 10-14z this morning...expect ifr cigs to develop in CPV...including PBG/RUT/BTV. Prevailing northeast flow and low cigs already will keep MSS at ifr conditions. Latest soundings show cigs continuing to lower at slk as winds shift to a northerly direction with ifr likely by sunrise. Widespread IFR cigs likely by 14z...with periods of ifr vis possible in the heavier convective shower elements. IFR cigs will prevail into the evening hours...with a slow improving trend toward 06z Saturday. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos/Neiles SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Taber

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