Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262045 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS 700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING. INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012- 016>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031- 034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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