Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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079 FXUS61 KBTV 290701 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 301 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A quasi-stationary front along the international border will settle southward across the North Country during the daylight hours today. This front combined with an upper level disturbance across southern New England will bring a chance of showers, mainly across south-central portions of Vermont. Elsewhere, light north winds will usher in drier air from Ontario and Quebec, with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny across Northern New York and Vermont this afternoon. Canadian high pressure will bring dry weather tonight through Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with pleasantly low humidity levels. The next upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for showers for Sunday into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 211 AM EDT Friday...Surface frontal bndry along the international border marked primarily by higher surface pressures across swrn Quebec and sern Ontario will shift slowly southward during the daylight hours today reaching srn VT by 00z this evening. Separate mid-level shortwave trough across central/e-central NY is associated with widespread light rain from Albany southward and southeastward across SERN NY and srn New England. Have seen a few isold showers across n-central VT in deformation zone, and can`t rule out isold showers/sprinkles this morning in spots. As sfc front moves south, will see chance for scattered showers across Rutland/Windsor counties late this morning into early afternoon. Up to 0.10" rainfall possible. Drier air moving in from Quebec/Ontario and passage of mid-level trough to our south will generally result in decreasing cloud cover across nrn NY and nrn VT, especially as we head into the afternoon hours. Temperatures are starting mild (mid-upr 60s) in most spots early this morning with cloud cover in place, so should see highs in the low-mid 80s with good insolational heating this aftn. 2-m dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will begin to fall into the mid-upr 50s across nrn half of the forecast area this afternoon, with north winds increasing to around 10 mph. Generally quiet conditions tonight with light N-NW winds and mostly clear skies. Should see min temps a bit cooler than recent days with advection of lower dewpoints/clear skies/good radiative cooling. Lows mainly in the 50s. May see some patchy fog develop in the favored river valleys of central and eastern VT, and also across the valley locations within the northern Adirondack region. Pleasant conditions for Saturday with weak surface high pressure across southern Quebec providing light north winds and sfc dewpoints in the low-mid 50s. The 00Z GFS indicates 850mb temperatures of +11 to +12C, which should translate to afternoon highs in the upr 70s to lower 80s with nearly full sun. PoPs nil.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM EDT Thursday...Any lingering precipitation will come to an end Friday evening. Drier and cooler weather will be the main story for Friday night through Saturday night as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Temperatures will be very near to seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...Ridge of surface high pressure slides east as a broad mid level trough brings clouds and chance for showers into the North Country from the South. Models disagree on how far north the precipitation will reach, therefore kept POPS at chance. The main axis of the aforementioned trough will moves through the region on Monday, keeping a chance of showers before exiting east Monday night. This will be followed by ridging and dry weather through Wednesday night. The next chance for precipitation will be Thursday into Friday with the approach of another mid level trough. Temperatures will start near normal with a warming trend throughout the week. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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Through 12Z Saturday...Areas of LIFR fog/ceilings will continue through 12Z at SLK/MSS/RUT/MPV and adjacent areas mainly away from the Champlain Valley. Will generally see a return to VFR conditions with clearing skies mid-late morning from NW-SE as a front settles southward across the area. This front may bring ISOLD/SCT light showers across s-central VT/KRUT late morning into the aftn, with dry weather elsewhere. Light and variable winds generally becoming N 5-10 kts late morning through afternoon. Mostly clear with light winds tonight...may lead to localized LIFR radiation fog MSS/SLK/MPV after 06Z Saturday. Outlook 12z Saturday through Tuesday...VFR/mainly clear Saturday with light winds. This will be followed by periods of showers Sunday into Monday with slow moving upper trough moving ewd from the Great Lakes. May see intervals of MVFR conditions SUN-MON.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Banacos

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