Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 040529 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1229 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF QUICKLY BEFORE SUNRISE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A TURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1224 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOWFALL HAS GENERALLY EXITED WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH REPORTS OF GENERALLY 1-3" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EARLIER THIS EVENING. MAIN IMPACT WAS FROM BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WHICH CAUSED TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH LOW VSBY FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS TO INDICATE SOME CONTINUED GUSTS 30-40 MPH DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. P-GRADIENT SLOWLY LESSENS...SO WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER 06Z. WILL ADDRESS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE. MID-LEVELS HAVE DRIED OUT...BUT LOW-LEVEL SATURATION MAY CAUSE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. TEMPS GENERALLY SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE LOWER 30S TOWARD DAWN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 314 PM EST TUESDAY...OVERALL QUIET PERIOD WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT WARMING TREND. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT JUST ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT WARMER SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL SET IN...BEGINNING THE WARMING TREND. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL WARM TO THE LOW 30`S ACROSS THE AREA. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE HIGH AND DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST THE EXTENDED CURRENTLY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30`S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KNOTS (ESPECIALLY AT BTV) WILL BRING IFR/MVFR OR LOWER TO ALL SITES THROUGH 04-06Z. SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SLEET POSSIBILY PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z...ESPECIALLY SLK. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND GUST UP TO 20-27 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN...STRONGEST AT MSS/SLK. CEILINGS LIFT OR SCATTER OUT TO VFR AT MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPTION BEING SLK WHERE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT MAY LEAD TO CONTINUED BROKEN MVFR STRATUS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003- 004-006>008-016>019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026- 027-029-030-034-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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