Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 091932 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 232 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BELOW ZERO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1258 PM EST TUESDAY...AFTERNOON FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS AREA SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD EXIT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MAX TEMPS ON SCHEDULE TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROVIDING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW OFF IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BEING REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THOUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PA AND THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES AGAIN GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL PUSH TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SHOW DEVELOPING DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS. HAVE NOTED AN INTERESTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF LIKE FEATURE IN THE SEA LEVEL PRES FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL VT ON WED NIGHT. WHILE ALOFT A WEAK 5H VORT WILL BE LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH SOME ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME NW UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.22...SO LOOKING AT A GENERAL DUSTING TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERY SIMILAR TO OUR EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOTED SLIGHTLY BETTER OMEGA FIELDS...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IN THE -10C TO -18C SNOW GROWTH REGION...HELPING WITH FLAKE PRODUCTION. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLOUDS...SO THINKING ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20F WEDS NIGHT AND FALLING ON THURSDAY UNDER MODERATE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HAVE NOTED 850MB TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY ARE BETWEEN -12C AND -14C...BUT FALL BETWEEN -20C AND -24C BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO MOUNTAIN SUMMITS TO MID/UPPER TEENS VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KNOTS AND SOME LEFTOVER 850 TO 700MB MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHC IN THE VALLEYS WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -20C AND -24C...BUT AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND EXPECTED WINDS WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CHALLENGING. WILL MENTION VALUES RANGING FROM -5F SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO 10F WARMER VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...VERY SIMILAR TO SEVERAL COLD OUTBREAKS DURING FEB OF 2015. LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POLAR VORTEX MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES DOWN TO 480 DAM AND PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -30C AND -34C. THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAYBE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF 20 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. GFS SHOWS FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL MENTION CHC POPS...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS VALUES AROUND -32C...WHICH IS 3 TO 4 STD BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN -28C AND -30C. ALL THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BETWEEN -5F AND -10F FOR SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH 0 TO +5F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH...CREATING BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING 1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH STILL SOME NORTHWEST GRADIENT OVER OUR FA. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETING BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LOWS FROM - 25F TO -5F...WITH WARMEST VALUES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SOME LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE BTV/SHELBURNE AREAS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR -18C BY 00Z MONDAY. AFTER A VERY COLD START...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER/MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW ARRIVES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY WITH SOME IFR/MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VSBY RETURNING TO VFR AS SNOW DISSIPATES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR VSBY THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z SNOW RETURNS BEGINNING AT KSLK/KMSS WITH VSBY LOWERING BACK TO IFR, THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY AREA-WIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT 8-12KTS AT KMSS THROUGH 00Z. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WED - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 00Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...LAHIFF

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