Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211116 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 716 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide the North Country with above normal temperatures and dry weather this weekend into early next week. The next chance for widespread rainfall looks to be in the Tuesday through Wednesday time period of next week as a slow moving trough of low pressure impacts the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 715 AM EDT Saturday...Overall forecast in good shape and no changes needed at this time. Quiet weather to continue with upper ridge and associated surface high over the area today through Sunday. Other than some high clouds should see plenty of sunshine. Low level warm air advection today through Sunday should allow for a warming trend with highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s and in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday. These temperatures will generally be about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Have noticed dew points are generally in the 30s over the area early this morning and feel models are a bit overdone on the dew points this afternoon based on dew points to our south and west. Thus with the drier air mass in place feel high temperatures today will be a bit higher than guidance values and have bumped highs up a couple of degrees. The warmer temperatures and the lower dew points should allow for afternoon relative humidities in the 30 percent range with a few locations down in the upper 20 percent range. Winds will be under 10 miles an hour...which is noticeably less than the past couple of days. Fine fuels remain dry and the combination of sunshine and lower relative humidities will promote further drying of the fuels...but lack of wind should more than likely keep fire danger in the moderate category today and Sunday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Saturday...Unseasonably warm weather will continue in the short term. Massive upper ridge with associated surface high pressure system remains in place over the area Sunday night before easing eastward with slowly falling heights on Monday. In fact, the incredible 586 dm 500-mb heights peaking at 00z Mon are at the climatological maximum percentile ranking. Some high clouds will sneak over the ridge Sunday night along with warm advection in a increasing southwest flow. Low temps mid 40s east to mid 50s west. On Monday other than high clouds, dry weather is expected with 925 mb temps 13-15C should bring max temps into the lower to mid 70s once again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Saturday...Big change from the dry weather pattern to a wet one is expected in the long term with good model agreement on the large scale early next week as a digging longwave trof moves into eastern us. There will be some cooling closer to normal later next week as the trof moves eastward but some significant model differences by then, so confidence is low on the details. There are differences in the details, timing, speed of the trof development and short waves moving through it but it looks like the best chances for rain will come Tuesday into Wednesday when deep moist (PW >1.5") southerly flow develops over the area. Low pressure will move up through the eastern Great Lakes and west of the region on Tue with a cold front moving slowly eastward through the region Tuesday night or Wed providing the main lift for precipitation. The 00Z GFS has very little precip at BTV while ECMWF has 0.50-1.5" which seems more reasonably at this point. Eventually the trough axis shifts over the region Wednesday night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and decrease in areal coverage but with upper trof and cooling aloft overhead there will be some instability showers around into Thu. ECMWF is considerably slower than the GFS moving the trof east hence the uncertainty in the forecast. Looking at a continuation of much above normal temperatures Tue in the upper 60s to lower 70s, just a bit cooler Wed and a bit more Thu and Fri but perhaps not even to normal despite the clouds and precipitation. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the period with high pressure persisting over the entire Northeast. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Evenson EQUIPMENT...BTV

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