Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251734 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 134 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures can be expected today through the entire holiday weekend as a general southwest flow aloft becomes established. A frontal boundary will move into the area this afternoon and enhance the potential for thunderstorms...some of which could produce gusty winds. Dry weather is expected on Thursday...but increasing moisture through the Memorial Day weekend will combine with the above normal temperatures to bring about chances for afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1026 AM EDT Wednesday...Current forecast remains on track and only some nominal adjustments to hourly temperatures/dewpoints were needed to shore up short term trends. Have a great day. Prior discussion follows. Prior discussion... Going forecast in good shape with only some minor tweaks to temperatures and dew points to match current conditions. Otherwise...relatively quiet weather is expected this morning...but as a cold front moves down out of Canada later today through the first part of tonight...the threat for thunderstorms will exist. The best potential for storms still looks to be north of a Saranac Lake to Saint Johnsbury line. In addition...dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will help to create an inverted-V sounding profile which indicates higher based thunderstorms would have the potential to produce gusty winds. Will go ahead and include this in the forecast for this afternoon and evening. Any showers and storms should be ending by midnight. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The front will exit the area tonight as northwest flow aloft develops. As mentioned earlier...convection should end before midnight with quiet weather expected the rest of the night. Northwest flow aloft prevails on Thursday...but eventually back to the southwest late in the day. Dry weather is expected along with a good deal of sunshine. Temperatures at 925 mb will be a little cooler than today...thus looking at high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Will have showers move into the area thursday night with a warm front lifting across our forecast area. warm temperatures and showers will continue into friday. thunderstorms will be possible friday afternoon. minimum temperatures thursday night will only drop into the lower 60s... then max temperatures on friday will be in the upper 80s. very warm upper level ridge in place along with warm air advection from warm front will be the main players with the showers and warm temps. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...models continue to diverge quiet a bit for the extended portion of the forecast. warm temperatures continue for friday and saturday with large ridge still in place. they should be the warmest couple of days in the entire 8 day forecast...both days feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms also. strong high pressure east of the region on sunday will ridge back towards the north country and push a backdoor cold front across our area. this will bring cooler temperatures for sunday into the beginning of next week...and also another chance for showers on sunday. for monday and tuesday temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals with a low passing north of our area and showers spreading across the north country. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
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Through 18Z Thursday...VFR expected through the period. Weak frontal boundary passing through the region this afternoon will foster a wind shift to northwesterly in the 18-00Z time frame, after which winds trend light and variable overnight into Thursday morning. Along the front, just an outside chance of a shower/thunderstorm at northern terminals through 01Z or so. Threat is conditional at this time and confidence is low that any storm will discretely affect any terminal. If it were to occur, brief gusty winds and MVFR visibilities would be possible. After 12Z Thursday VFR continues under light northerly flow. Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday... 18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat apears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...JMG/Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.