Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240614 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 214 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 114 AM EDT THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHRINKING...BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT...AND IN THE HIR TRRN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA THROUGH MORNING...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN GREEN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND 700FT ELEVATION...BUT WARM GROUND AND LIFT QPF WILL KEEP SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS...AT MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S IN WARMER VALLEYS. NRN NY WILL BE ON COOLER SIDE AS SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA...MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CPV AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD. EXPECT CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN VT BY DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`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THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES. THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS 4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN. GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF FIRE WEATHER...TABER

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