Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011753 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1253 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1042 AM EST SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT, COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED/AIDED BY SMALL JET STREAK AT 250MB OF 100+KTS MOVING OVER THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER AHEAD OF APPROACHING SNOWFALL. HAVE TIMED SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY WITH MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED AT TIMES. IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM 12Z ONWARD. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY-06Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 06Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. 12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>007-016-017. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ008>012-018-019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ028>031-087. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM/SLW SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...NEILES

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