Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281420 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1010 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE. 12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES. 00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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