Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230235 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1035 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1020 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW. EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10 KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO

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