Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201413 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1013 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE REGION WITH A WARM DAY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1013 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST FOR A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTACT OVER THE NORTHEAST REGION...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND A COASTAL LOW IN THE CAROLINAS REGION. TEMPS ON TRACK FROM MORNING LOWS. HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK AND WILL BE AIDED BY INCR SOUTHERLY FETCH AS DAY PROGRESSES WITH SFC RIDGE PUSHING OFFSHORE. HAVE INCREASED CLD COVER A BIT FOR N NY AS SOME OF THE CLDS AHEAD OF FRONT MAY WORK INTO THAT AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULDN`T IMPACT OVERALL EXPECTED CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT CLOUDS AFFECT OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...THOUGH WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER DUE TO CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHICH IS THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND SOME PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TREND. ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF AN INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...NO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START AND END WITH CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TWO RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAYS WILL BE FEATURED IN BETWEEN. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL SLOWING OF THE FEATURES AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS IS LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE LENGTH AND AMOUNT OF RAIN...BUT AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH LOOKS PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL POST-FRONTAL- PASSAGE IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT MOSTLY 30S AND LOW 40S. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES AT THE TAIL- END OF PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND OROGRAPHIC RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS A RESULT WE`LL ALSO BE LOOKING AT A BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...44-54F FOR HIGHS. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE IN FULL CONTROL BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NICE DAY/COOL NIGHTS. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH NIGHTS. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SO WE`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