Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 041922 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION THERE AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY AS DEW POINTS AT MASSENA HAVE DROPPED WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN THERE AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHABNCE FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER 50S CPV. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 12C...SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON. 12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE. 00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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