Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200208 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1008 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS VERMONT. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS WITH GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1008 PM EDT TUESDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY SINCE THE SUN WENT DOWN AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT FORECASTED LOWS IN THE GOOD SHAPE...MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. ONLY OTHER TWEAK WAS TO THE SKY GRIDS...MAINLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THOSE TWO FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS OFFERED BY MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THESE FEATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PWS OF 1-1.5"...BUT THAT AIR MASS WILL PRIMARILY ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAKE ITS TIME TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO VT. SOURCES OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ARE MODEST /PRIMARILY FROM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION/...BUT SURFACE-BASED CAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NY. I`VE CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING FURTHER INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ENTERING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VT. SIMILAR AREAL COVERAGE TO POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH GENERAL DECREASING TREND INTO THE EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE QPF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH AMOUNTS .5"-.75" WITH AMOUNTS IN VT A QUARTER-INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN NY /DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER/ TO THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER-MID 60S. FOR THURSDAY EXPECTING HIGHS TO RUN IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 416 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE OFFERED BY TODAY`S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...FEATURING A REX BLOCK AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW FROM THE PREVIOUS PERIOD ESSENTIALLY STALLS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THERE STILL IS A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS ON HOW THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. THE GFS TAKES THE CLOSED LOW NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AROUND A LITTLE LONGER /ACTUALLY RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY/. LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...A LARGELY DRY PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM A BROAD HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELDS AND 850/925MB THERMAL PROGS OF MARITIME AIR MASS/BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL FEATURE KEEPING EASTERN VT COOLER AND CLOUDIER THAN THE REST OF THE CWA. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S /LOWER 70S EASTERN VT/ WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...DIMINISHING CLOUDS...WEAKENING WINDS AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES THE NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LGT TO CALM THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. EXPECT VLIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KMPV AFTER 06Z...AND LIFR AT KSLK. OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND DRAINAGE FLOW WILL KEEP REST OF TAF SITES VFR OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE RECOVERY TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z- 13Z...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE SW WILL MOVE INTO THE SLV DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASE IN CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. KMSS AND KSLK MAY SEE SHOWERS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE CPV AND VT STAY DRY. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURS...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. HOWEVER...GIVEN DRY LLVLS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. 12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS ACRS OUR TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG WL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...KGM

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