Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201914 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 314 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers and thunderstorms around the region this afternoon. Friday will remain relatively dry, but an isolated afternoon shower or two is not out of the question. Saturday into the first part of Sunday will see more dry and seasonable weather under high pressure. Sunday evening into Monday brings the next chance of showers and thunderstorms as an upper level trough of low pressure moves in.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 312 PM EDT Thursday...The region will be in west to northwest flow aloft with little in the way of any larger scale forcing. The hi-res models have picked up on some very isolated shower and thunderstorm activity across the northern counties and some lake breeze convection on western side of Lake Champlain. Convection so far is isolated in nature and should remain so for the next few hours. Models also indicate isolated pockets of CAPE 500-2000 J/kg which have been lining up so far with the activity to this point. If things hold, the instability should drop off in a few hours and the activity along with it. Quiet and dry weather is expected tonight and for most of Friday. There will be a trough moving across eastern Canada and we should see some increase in dynamic support and combined with additional forcing from the higher terrain and sufficient instability. Because of that cannot rule out the possibility of some very isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly over the northern Adirondacks and the Northern third of Vermont. Again this activity would be weak and disorganized. Overnight Friday, high pressure takes hold again leading to another dry and quiet night. High temperatures today and Friday will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s while lows for Thursday and Friday will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...Overall idea from the previous forecast remains in good shape with the first half of the weekend looking generally dry as high pressure will be over the region for Friday night and Saturday, then shifting offshore Saturday night. As the high shifts offshore, warm air advection associated with an approaching upper trough to our west may introduce a few showers across our southern zones towards daybreak Sunday, but Saturday evening activities should be dry. Lows both nights will be right around normal for late July in the mid 50s mountains to low 60s in the deeper valleys. Saturday highs will also be close to normal in the mid 70s to low 80s, with relatively low/moderate humidity through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...Just one system to really talk about in the extended period. Aforementioned upper trough digging into the Great Lakes early Sunday morning will bring some overrunning showers to the region late Sunday evening across our southern zones, and lift northward across the entire CWA Sunday night into Monday morning. Note a decent surge of PWATs to around 1.5 inches along the frontal zone, along with some weak surface to mid-level lapse rates, but not enough to be overly concerned for convection as the best forcing is to our south. Enough dynamics exist though to support the idea of a rumble of thunder so have kept in a slight chance, mainly across central/southern areas. Additional showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday as the upper level trough swings through, likely more isolated/scattered in nature, with the overall trend at the end of the period going towards drier conditions again as high pressure returns for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs will be seasonally cool in the low/mid 70s Monday and Tuesday, but warm closer to normal Wednesday in the mid/upper 70s. Lows close to normal through the period in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...Overall looking at VFR conditions through the period. There have been a few showers and thunderstorms popping up this afternoon...especially over eastern New York and across the international border in response to the development of a lake breeze. This activity will drift east based on the flow pattern. Have mention of vicinity showers at KPBG/KBTV/KRUT 00Z. Despite the potential for showers at these locations...VFR conditions are expected. Some low clouds and fog could return after 06z tonight, especially at KMPV and KSLK though confidence is lower than previous evenings. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Verasamy SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Verasamy

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