Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290539 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the North Country overnight with a chance of rain or snow showers. There will be a slight chance for rain and snow showers on Wednesday, mainly over the high elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Thursday with mostly sunny skies expected. A low pressure area moving east across the Ohio valley will bring mixed wintry precipitation to the North Country late Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1108 PM EDT Tuesday...Patchy drizzle, isolated -RW, and low ceilings persist across the North Country this evening, with temps at 03Z mainly 34-38F. Main synoptic feature of note is the relatively compact, vertically stacked low exiting east of NJ. Main precipitation shield with this system will remain to our south. However, as the low tracks ewd, will see increasing N-NW winds, which will induce low-level CAA thru the remainder of the overnight. Gradually cooling thermal profiles will allow for a rain/snow mix as we move toward 04-05Z along the intl border, and elsewhere after 06Z. Activity will be quite light with orographics effects providing primary forcing mechanism. Despite the low- level CAA, continued cloud cover will help to keep temperatures up overnight with lows mainly in the lower 30s, except in the 20s over the higher elevations. The region will be under cold advection on Wednesday. expecting a slight chance for some rain or snow showers on Wednesday, mainly over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...Any residual rain or snow showers should come to an end early Wednesday night. A ridge of high pressure will build south from Canada late Wednesday night and will remain over the region through Thursday night. expecting mostly sunny skies on Thursday. A warm front will approach the region well after midnight Thursday night, so will have a chance of snow light snow late Thursday Night and approaching daybreak on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...Snow expected to spread from north to south across the North Country on Friday with warming temperatures during the day in southerly flow changing snow to mostly snow. Some enhancement of QPF on eastern slopes expected with shadowing effects on leeward slopes and valleys. Heading into Friday night/Saturday morning, warmer air aloft will result in wintry mix starting over Northern NY and spreading eastward into the Champlain Valley in the middle of the night. Northeast Kingdom has best chance of remaining snow through Saturday morning. Winds shift out of the north on Saturday as the main coastal low pulls east and northern stream shortwave that provided lift for wintry mix will move out of the area with generally drying conditions Saturday into Sunday. NW upslope precip possible through Sunday before surface high pressure becomes the dominant feature through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 06Z Thursday...Variable flight conditions from VFR to LIFR will continue through 12-13z before all sites lift to MVFR except VFR at KMSS. Thereafter a gradual improvement at all sites to VFR is expected by the afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle overnight generally dissipate after 12z as well, with some lingering rain/snow showers across central/northern portions of Vermont through about 18z. Winds calm/light overnight trend to the north/northwest at 5-15kts after 12z with some gusts up to 20kts possible from the Champlain Valley eastward through Vermont. Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday... 06Z Thursday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR. Isolated MVFR and showers over higher terrain of NE VT. 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday...VFR under high pressure. 12Z Friday through 00Z Monday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain and snow.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Lahiff

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