Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240756 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 356 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY CONTROL REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WARM SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...TODAY BEGINS OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BACK INTO SUMMERLIKE WEATHER AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES CONTINUE UNDER DEEPENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TREND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. USING A MODEL BLEND OF 18-21Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MAX READINGS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS, PERHAPS TOUCHING THE 80F MARK IN WARMER LOCALES OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BOOST READINGS A DEGREE OR TWO. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED WSW TO ESE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MAY STILL SPARK A WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT BASED OFF SFC- BASED CAPES TO 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE DEEP AND DRY (TO 700 MB) SO IF AN ISOLATED STORM DOES FORM LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY CONVECTIVE CORES AS PARCEL DESCENT WOULD BE ACCELERATING DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES BENEATH THE CLOUD BASES. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY ISOLATED EVENING CONVECTION FAR NORTHEAST WILL THEN END BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER, LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL THEN TREND GRADUALLY CLOUDY LATER AT NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A STRONG WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. A BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING, THOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 50S FOR MOST. BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR NORTHERN NY COUNTIES INTO NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND HAVE OFFERED HIGHEST POPS/STEADIER SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND NOMINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NY COUNTIES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN A MORE LIMITED FASHION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD ACHIEVE LATE DAY VALUES IN UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THESE AREAS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTH AND EAST OF THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANY STEADIER MORNING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS EXITING OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH TIME AND SKIES TRENDING PARTLY SUNNY IN MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL ON BOARD SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING HOWEVER, SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE DISORGANZIED WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH, WITH PERHAPS OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON ON TAP AS AFTERNOON 925 MB TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE +20 TO +23C RANGE PER LATEST NAM/GFS/EURO OUTPUT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARMER LOCALES IN THE BROADER VALLEYS NEARING THE 90F MARK. DEFINITELY A TIME TO CONSIDER DUSTING OFF THE AIR CONDITIONERS AFTER A 9-MONTH HIATUS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED JUST SOUTHEAST OF FA FOR WARM/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS OPPORTUNITIES FOR MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO RIDGE AROUND THE PERIPERHY OF THE RIDGE. IT WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER TUES NGT/WED BEFORE A NORTHERN WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WED NGT THEN AGAIN PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FRI NGT/SAT BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT. IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND ALTHOUGH NOT A WIDESPREAD NEEDED SOAKING RAIN...WARM MOIST FLOW WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA SHOULD GIVE SEVERAL CHANCES OF BENEFICIAL RAINS...ALBEIT WHEN IT DOES RAIN IT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WILL BE WARM WITH H925 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HOW HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME CLOSER IN LINE ON TIMING OF SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH PARALLEL UPPER FLOW ALWAYS HAS A TRICK UP ITS SLEEVE. RIGHT NOW...A WEAK DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING WARM FRONT TUE NGT/WED WILL BRING ABOUT CHANCE SHOWERS...PERHAPS THUNDR TUE NGT WITH NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING AN EVENTUAL WASHED OUT FRONT ACROSS FA WED FOR BETTER CHANCE OF TSTRMS. LINGERING BOUNDARY ON THU MAY BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTRMS THU THEN LOOKS DRY FOR FRI AHEAD OF MORE SIGNFICANT NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND FRONT ON SAT. BETTER DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY ON SAT MAY LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS TONIGHT TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (MSS/SLK/PBG) WITH 45-50 KNOTS FORECAST AT 2000 FEET AGL...MAINLY THRU 12Z. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. 12Z MONDAY - THURSDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 356 AM SUNDAY...FINE DEAD FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THESE FUELS TO BURN QUICKLY SHOULD ANY FIRES START. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW TODAY AS THEY WERE ON SATURDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BRISK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THUS ANY FIRES THAT DO START ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN INTENSELY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW FIRE WEATHER...JMG/RJS

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