Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221902 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 202 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will clear the North Country late this afternoon and this evening, bringing an end to the mix of rain and snow showers. Northwest winds will usher in colder air with partial clearing overnight. Thanksgiving will feature fair weather with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and chilly temperatures, as surface high pressure builds across New York and New England. Afternoon highs on Thanksgiving day will generally reach the low to mid 30s. Fair weather will continue on Friday with moderating temperatures. The next chance for widespread showers, mainly in the form of rain, will be Saturday with another cold front crossing the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 131 PM EST Wednesday...Trending toward quieter weather conditions late this aftn/evening. The 850-700mb frontogenetic forcing is beginning to weaken and shift ewd across central/ern VT with precipitation ending as expected at 1830Z across the Champlain Valley. Developing NW flow in the wake of the sfc front will result in some continued orographic snow shower activity across the nrn Adirondacks and Green Mtns through the first half of tonight. Maintained mention of -SHSN across the nrn mtns through 06Z or so tonight. Otherwise, visible satellite imagery showing some upstream clearing across the Ottawa Valley of Ontario. Should see a few breaks this evening and overnight away from upslope mtn areas. Moderately strong sfc-850mb CAA expected, and associated steep lapse rates will promote some sfc wind gusts 15-25 mph mainly 22-06Z. Thereafter, ridge axis building ewd across nrn NY will result in gradually diminishing wind speeds. Will result in relatively cold overnight lows, mainly in the teens to low 20s, except mid 20s in the vicinity of Lake Champlain with the moderating influence of the relatively warm lake waters (still 48F at the King Street ferry dock). Chilly and quiet weather conditions for traveling on Thanksgiving Day. High RH 700-500mb layer should maintain some SCT-BKN mid- level clouds, but should see light winds and highs in the low-mid 30s. Winds will turn light south by afternoon. As ridge axis moves to the east and shortwave trough grazes the intl border, it appears that developing low-level SW 850mb flow may allow a few flurries or snow showers to develop off of Lake Ontario into srn St. Lawrence and Franklin counties. This would mainly be 23Z Thu thru 06Z Fri. Could see a dusting to 0.5" in spots, especially NY Route 3 corridor around Star Lake/Wanakena. Low temperatures on Thursday night expected mid-upr 20s, perhaps near 30F in srn St. Lawrence County with greater wind/cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 258 AM EST Wednesday...Upper low passing well north of the region will drag the tail end of a weak cold front through the forecast area Thursday night with little overall impact outside of some lake effect snow showers across southern St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York and the higher elevations of northern Vermont. Minor snow accumulations are expected, generally less than an inch. By Friday morning, lake effect will have moved out of the area and dissipated as high pressure builds in with a partly sunny and seasonable end to the work week expected. Highs should run mainly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 258 AM EST Wednesday...No big changes from the previous forecast thinking for the extended period with the main highlights being another weak frontal passage on the weekend, and another big warmup mid-week. High pressure over the eastern seaboard Friday night shifts east Saturday in advance of another low pressure system passing well north of the border over James Bay. Dry warm front moves through the North Country Friday night with mild temps in the 30s overnight warming into low/mid 40s Saturday before a cold front swings in Saturday afternoon. Models continue to show a real lack of deep moisture with this boundary as well, but there should be enough moisture in the low levels to produce a few scattered rain showers in the afternoon, and some upslope enhanced snow showers Saturday night and Sunday as the parent upper trough swings through. High pressure builds in once again for Monday with temps seasonably cool in the 30s for highs and teens/20s for lows. Monday night into Tuesday the high shifts offshore and the pressure gradient increases markedly across the region as strong low pressure developing out of the lee of the Rockies moves northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday`s end. Increasing south/southwesterly flow will bring another big warmup to the region Tuesday with temps firmly in the 40s to possibly low 50s in the deeper Valleys with no precipitation expected. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 18z Thursday...Ongoing IFR-MVFR in low ceilings and mix rain/snow will gradually improve, especially after 21Z, as cold front and associated banded precipitation shifts east of VT. Will see some continued flurries into this evening across the nrn Adirondacks and central/nrn Greens with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Otherwise, precipitation will end with gradual lifting of ceilings back to VFR, and partial clearing working in from the Ottawa and St. Lawrence River Valleys. Winds will likewise be shifting into the NW, with gusts 16-18kts possible through 09Z Thursday. Thereafter, high pressure builds into NY and New England with generally fair SCT-BKN VFR conditions for the balance of Thanksgiving Day. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN, mainly at SLK with ern end of lake effect snow band. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Banacos

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