Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300759 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 359 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 149 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT LOCALLY SW 5-8 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SERN ONTARIO...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION THRU 10Z...BUT WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (PARTLY CLOUDY) ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THIS AREA SHIFTS EAST. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SATURATED FROM THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-48 HRS. WITH THAT IN MIND...DESPITE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRODUCING PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE AS WELL. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY 10-12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SERN ONTARIO BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST LOCAL MODEL RUNS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH SLOWLY RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER THURSDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EACH AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD POCKET ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE HINTING AT AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER. IN ADDITION...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND LET FURTHER SHIFTS ASSESS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OR MIST AT REST OF SITES AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL LOWER SO ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME SHALLOW FOG OR TEMPO MVFR. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. 00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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