Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 291442 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1042 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A closed upper low over the Ohio valley will linger there through Saturday, before moving north into the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure over Quebec will build southwest into the North Country through Friday, bringing fair and dry weather to the region. Moisture from the closed upper low will bring increasing chances for rain showers to the North Country this weekend through Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1042 AM EDT Thursday...Ridge of high pressure resides over Quebec with cutoff low pressure system over the Ohio River Valley. 500mb heights continue to increase over the North Country with the moisture from the large low staying to the south and west. Some clouds in the St Lawrence Valley this morning are expected to see some breaks today. Moisture and mostly cloudy conditions stay out of the North Country, but cloud cover will be more variable areas closest to the low such as the St Lawrence valley and Adirondacks, as some spokes of energy rotate about the low. Temperatures to day expected to reach the mid 60s to low 70s for most locations.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...The forecast challenge during this period will be northern extent of precip shield...along with impacts clouds will have on temps. Models in good agreement with closed 5h/7h cyclonic circulation over the Ohio Valley with building ridge of high pressure develops over southern Canada. This will continue to produce a east to northeast flow across our region...with mid/upper level moisture trying to advect in from the south. Based on 70% and greater 1000 to 500mb RH fields staying to our south and pw values < 1.0...along with best upper level forcing located to our south...will continue to mention just low chc pops across southern VT zones on Friday. Better moisture tries to make a run into our central cwa on Saturday...but weakens as it encounters dry air associated with ridge of high pres. Thinking a few isolated to scattered light rain showers are possible across our central/southern cwa on Saturday...but qpf will be light and generally under 0.10" Temps will be tricky with highs clouds on Friday...along with some low clouds again across eastern section...and even more clouds areawide on Saturday. Based on yesterday`s cloud impacts on temps...will mention a similar type profile for Friday with highs near 60s eastern cwa...to near 70 Saint Lawrence Valley and downslope parts of the Champlain Valley. With more clouds anticipated Saturday...thinking highs mainly in the upper 50s mountains to mid 60s warmer valleys...with lows generally in the 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...The deep closed 5h circulation over the Ohio Valley will slowly lift toward the ne conus and weaken by early next week. As cold core aloft and associated energy/moisture move directly overhead by Monday...expect scattered showers. Once again...best chance for precip with the highest pops will be dacks and mountains of vt...with generally light qpf values under 0.25". System will be replaced once again by a large dome of high pres both at the surface and aloft by midweek. Still some uncertainty on timing of high pres and potential lingering moisture/pops on Tuesday...but Wednesday and Thursday look dry. A general warming trend is anticipated...especially daytime highs with more sun anticipated and progged 850mb temps near 8c. This supports highs mid 60s to lower 70s with lows mainly in the mid 30s to upper 40s...depending upon elevation and closeness to Lake Champlain. Overall expect a large diurnal swing in daily temps by midweek due to the expected very dry air mass in place. && .AVIATION /15Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period as a surface ridge of high pressure builds southwest from Quebec into the region through the period. Expecting increasing high and mid level clouds moving into the region today from the mid Atlantic states. These clouds are associated with the closed upper low over the Ohio valley today. Expecting surface winds today to turn into east and northeast today as the ridge of high pressure build southwest from Quebec. Outlook 12z Thursday through Monday... 12z Thu - 12z Sat: VFR under an increasing mid/high deck. 12z Sat - 00z Tue: Mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered rain showers, mainly from 00z Sun onward. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.