Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010903 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 403 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TODAY DRY AND COLD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT, COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR. 09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. 12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>007-016-017. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ008>012-018-019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ028>031-087. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...WGH/NEILES

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