Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 031116 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 716 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850 TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE PATTERN. SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 07Z-11Z DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...MV/SLW

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