Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281942 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 342 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCU OR SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FORMATION OF SOME FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LIGHTEST. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORMALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS WE RESIDE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS 11-13C...WHICH SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SO DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHEN BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LIMITED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE GONE WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SUNSHINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A WARM SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RETURNING TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THROUGH MID-WEEK THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT RESULTING IN ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS RUN ANYWHERE FROM 15-22C RESPECTIVELY SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE HINTED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS OF A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK. SCT-BKN VFR DECK AROUND THE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, SETTING UP IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED LOCATIONS OF KSLK/KMPV FROM 06-12Z. THEREAFTER, FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL RULE FOR SATURDAY WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SAT - 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON - 00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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