Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291119 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 719 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 719 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ALREADY SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS MAY SLOW EROSION OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING. BUT OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH 12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING INDICATED. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF

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