Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 220137 CCA AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 729 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 729 PM EDT...A CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500 HPA CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. AS MORE SHORT-WAVE ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM. THE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. KCCX RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST MOTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY AID IN LOCALLY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION BY DAYBREAK. A CONVEYOR BELT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z/WED. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY... TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS. WED NIGHT INTO THU...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY. THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON THU IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE L50S IN THE VALLEYS. THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN STRUCTURE WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE MEANDERS OVER CAPE COD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE FCST AREA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE. FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN PORTIONS OF VT. SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S. SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY. THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO +2C AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW U50S ON SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S. MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850 TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...AND ARE RATHER SHORT IN DURATION. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTH...THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER SPORADIC AND LIGHT...WILL HANDLE THIS RAINFALL WILL JUST A VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KSLK. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THESE SITES DUE TO LOW STRATUS...AND SOME MIST AS WELL. SOME IFR STRATUS IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KPBG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOW. WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT BACK TO LOW END MVFR AT KPBG. ELSEWHERE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR FOR BTV/MSS/RUT...AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN ANY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ALL SITES TO SEE MAINLY MVFR/VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FLYING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LOW END MVFR/IFR FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO AVOID THE RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM A CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AROUND KBTV/KPBG...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME. SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA/FRUGIS NEAR TERM...WASULA/FRUGIS SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...EVENSON/WASULA

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