Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010530 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 130 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 129 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED...MAINLY TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG. SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE. A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...LAHIFF

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