Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252319 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 719 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will cross the area tonight with little fanfare outside a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm across northern counties. High pressure returns for Thursday with mainly dry and seasonably warm temperatures expected. Thereafter, warm and summerlike weather continues into the Holiday Weekend along with moderate humidity levels. While much of the period will be dry, there will be a daily threat of afternoon, early evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 656 PM EDT Wednesday...updated forecast to decrease areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms and remove mention of gusty winds. water vapor shows deep layer aloft across our region...which has suppressed any convective development. best combination of dynamics associated with tail of 5h vort and some limited 850 to 500mb moisture will be across northern vt into the northeast kingdom through 03z. have continued to mention chance pops with slight chance of thunder...as current radar shows two weak cells approaching the international border. utilizing the distance arrival tool has them approaching our border by 00z. will continue to monitor for potential lightning...but so far nothing noted. rest of forecast in good shape. By later tonight skies gradually trend mostly clear and winds become light as surface high pressure returns to the region. Some patchy fog will be possible in any areas that do receive rainfall this evening, with highest probabilities across northeastern VT. Low temperatures a blend of bias-corrected and MOS-based guidance, generally from 45 to 55 with some variability. On Thursday surface high pressure returns to the region along with mainly sunny skies and light winds. Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures run about a degree or two cooler than today, so little airmass change expected with afternoon highs continuing in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most spots. By later in the day a gradual increase in moisture is expected across the western portions of the forecast area in northern NY. Some model differences on how robust this process is, it being dependent on the future evolution of the ridge axis transitioning to our east over time. At this point have introduced lower end chances of precipitation from the Adirondacks west into the southern SLV from mid-afternoon onward to account for this uncertainty. Regardless, most of the day will be dry. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm front will traverse across the North Country Thursday night through Friday, producing showers and thunderstorms with the best chance for thunderstorms occurring Friday afternoon. PWATS increase to 1-1.5 inches which could help showers and thunderstorms create periods of heavy rain. NAM BUFKIT forecast sounding profiles show CAPE values greater than 1000J/kg with enough daytime heating to reach convective temperatures. This along with possible elevated mixed layer that will move across the St Lawrence Valley and Northern tier of CWA support potential for convection on Friday. Caveat being lack of lift on Friday, so will mainly rely on heating and moist atmosphere. Showers, clouds and warmer air filtering in will keep min temperatures Thursday night in the 50s to low 60s. 925mb temperatures increase into the low 20s on Friday, resulting in maxes in the 70s to mid 80s. Friday night will see showers and thunderstorms diminish with nocturnal cooling settling in and ridging aloft begins to build to our south and east. Min temperatures will remain above normal, generally in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 406 PM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled weather expected throughout the long term as we remain on the periphery of the upper ridge. This will result in chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon, throughout the holiday weekend. Max temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s with some spots in the southern valleys nearing 90 when the upper ridge axis begins to crest over the region. On Sunday, upper level disturbances will move into the region keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms. While upstream, upper level shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region, reflected at the surface as a gradually strengthening low pressure system. This system will drag a cold front across the area Monday with showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, models diverge on how dry conditions will be. Overall, above normal temperatures continue with summer-like conditions...aka showers and thunderstorm potential. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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Through 00Z Friday...VFR expected through the period. A weak frontal boundary has passed through the region and winds have shifted to northwesterly at 05-10 knots and will go light and variable overnight before resuming lightly out of the north friday morning. There is a small window for potential fog at SLK from 09-11z and possible IFR conditions along with that. Confidence is not high at this time so have gone with a MVFR in the taf to reflect the potential. Outlook 18Z Thursday through Monday... 18Z Thu onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG/MV

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