Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200515 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 115 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT LEADING TO A RATHER CHILLY MID TO LATE-APRIL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND MILDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ISN`T UNTIL TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE NORTH COUNTRY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 111 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO CHANGES FOR 130 AM UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW. MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS FA THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE ACRS FA. HRLY TMP TRENDS AND MIN T FCST APPEAR TO BE IN- LINE...THUS NO CHANGES WITH THIS FCST UPDATE. 323 PM DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND UNDER BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AND UNDER COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C). SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARD MORNING BUT THOSE WON`T STOP OVERALL IDEA OF STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING. 12Z MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PRIOR FORECAST AND THUS HAD NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THAT...WHICH OFFERS LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS FOR THE CUSTOMARY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE MILDER VALLEYS. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID/LATE APRIL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 323 PM EDT SATURDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BISECTS VERMONT. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +1 TO +3C. UNDER AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FURTHEST NORTH ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY)...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 1000-500 MB RH. A NUMBER OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. I`VE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMING FROM WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS I`M NOT CONVINCED COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THAT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...GENERALLY WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES INCREASE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. THINK THERE STILL COULD BE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS FROM CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT TO SLIGHT CHANCE/DRY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. QPF PRETTY LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS BEST FORCING MOVES IN ON TUESDAY. UNTIL THAT ARRIVES THOUGH...CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S (COOLEST NORTH). UNDER OVERCAST SKIES MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR RATHER MILD LATE APRIL LOWS IN THE 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 347 PM EDT SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC EARLY TUESDAY WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY. ECMWF MODEL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL HAVING SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE GONE FOR A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS IN EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CEILINGS ALL 12K FEET OR ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 5-15 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO/SLW SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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