Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170344 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1044 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A ridge of high pressure will be over the North Country through midday Tuesday. A low pressure area will move northeast through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday. A secondary low pressure area will develop south of Long Island early Tuesday night and will move slowly east on Wednesday. Expecting a mix of precipitation types to develop over the North Country late Tuesday afternoon, with mixed wintry precipitation continuing through Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Slow travel conditions will be possible Tuesday night, and for the morning commute on Wednesday.
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As of 1037 PM EST Monday...A quiet night underway as surface ridge axis drifts ewd across nrn NY and VT overnight. Northeastern fringe of cloud canopy associated with low pressure over the wrn Great Lakes/mid-Mississippi Valley will bring periods of high cloudiness to nrn NY and VT thru the pre-dawn hrs. That combined with little in the way of snow cover in most areas will limit radiational cooling somewhat thru the remainder of the overnight. That said, 2-meter dewpoints are in the teens, and with light winds should see overnight lows mainly in the upper teens to lower 20s. PoPs NIL overnight. On Tuesday, surface low and attendant mid-level shortwave trough will shift ewd from the srn Great Lakes region, moving into wrn NY by 00z Wednesday, with a secondary low developing south of Long Island during Tuesday evening. Will see increasing clouds throughout the day, with good QG forcing resulting in developing precipitation across nrn NY 19-22Z, and across VT 22-00Z. Thermal profiles support a sleet/ZR mix across St. Lawrence and southern portions of Franklin counties. May initially see a bit of a rain/snow mix across the Champlain Valley, but wet-bulb cooling results in mainly a snow event across VT Tuesday aftn into Tuesday night. Good period of QG forcing combined with sely upslope flow of 25-35kts in 950-850mb layer will yield moderate snowfall rates across the ern slopes of the Adirondacks and s-central Greens during Tuesday night. With good upslope signature, have expanded the winter weather advisory to including the nrn Adirondacks ewd to Lake Champlain across nrn NY. In VT, expanded the Winter Weather Advisory northward across central/ern sections, as far nern was Caledonia Co. Looking for generally 3-6", with locally higher amts possible along the ern slopes of the Greens and in portions of Essex Co. NY. In St Lawrence and Franklin counties, where better chance for sleet- ZR is expected, looking for less snowfall (1-2") but up to a tenth of an inch of ice in spots. Lastly, there will be sely downslope flow into the greater BTV area. Kept nwrn VT out of the advisory as a result (generally 2-4" totals), but the midnight shift can take another look based on the 00Z NWP guidance suite.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 411 PM EST Monday...a weak surface low pressure area will move northeast up the Saint Lawrence valley Wednesday night, but models showing a weak secondary low pressure area will form south of Long Island Tuesday night and move slowly east on Wednesday. This secondary will help to keep in colder air locked in over eastern Vermont, with mainly snow expected there. Have put up a winter weather advisory for Tuesday night into wednesday morning for south central vermont, as models showing heavier QPF there. Expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow over south central Vermont by Wednesday. Expecting mainly lighter amounts of snow and sleet Tuesday night and Wednesday over the remainder of the region. Have also put up a winter wx advisory for southwestern Saint Lawrence county in northern New York Tuesday night, as guidance indicating up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation there. Expecting precipitation to lighten and slowly taper off Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 324 PM EST Monday...The second half of the week will see a return of high pressure with fair weather, light winds and mild temperatures. Late wednesday night into Thursday will see an upper level through off to the east of the CWA which will bring lingering snow showers. Showers will mainly be over higher elevations during the early morning hours and then just over NEK as the trough continues to push east. Beyond this point the high takes hold and keeps any chance of precipitation well to the south, with Saturday afternoon providing the only chance of very isolated snow showers across the Central Adirondacks. 925mb Temps range from -1C to -3C on the GFS through Sun while the ECMWF is a little warmer a +2C to -2C through the same period. Either way this should yield mild temps in the upper 30`s to 40`s and possibly warmer for the end of the week through the weekend while overnight lows range in the lower 20`s to 30`s with some of the normally colder locations possibly dropping into the teens on a few evenings. && .AVIATION /04Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR through the most of the period. Late in the period, ceilings begin to lower to borderline VFR with MVFR/IFR visibility as snow moves in with associated warm front after 19Z. Winds will be light and variable to start the period and then swing to the south east at 05-10 knots for all stations except KMSS which will see northeasterly winds at 05-10 knots. 00Z Wednesday - 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in periods of light snow, mixed pcpn and/or light rain depending on location. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR rain/snow shower activity. 00Z Friday onward...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for VTZ006>012-017>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ029-087. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ028-030-031-034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...MV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.