Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 232328 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 728 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... EVENING CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE REGION...HOWEVER PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 323 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ONLY PROBLEMATIC ISSUE IS THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT ERODES AS BACKSIDE OF UPPER H5 TROUGH DEPARTS NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. USED A BLEND OF MODEL 850 RH/LAYER CLOUD PROGS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT SITUATION BEST. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME PESKY STRATOCUMULUS HANGING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING BEFORE LARGER SCALE CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT. LOWS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND MAINLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S...THOUGH A FEW UPPER 30S IN FAVORED NRN MTN HOLLOWS AND LOCALLY NEAR 50 IN MILDER SPOTS NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WINDS LIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE LATE IN MOST FAVORED LOCALES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 323 PM EDT TUESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM (THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOR THAT MATTER) WILL FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HUGE DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME INCONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S ECMWF/GEM AND GFS/NAM CAMPS IN REGARD TO THE INLAND PUSH OF A COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE NON- AMERICAN CAMP SUGGESTING AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH SUCH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS THREAT FOR NOW CAPPING POPS IN THE 15-20 PCT RANGE FAR SOUTH...AND LEAVING REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH MAINLY LOWER 50S IN MILDER SPOTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. THESE RANGES ARE SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL VALUES...THOUGH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET IN FAVORED LOCALES AS LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 323 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT VERSION -- MODELS STILL SHOWING A SIMILAR SCENARIO. BIG RIDGE SO DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOL FRONT SLIDES DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL, THEN BACK TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ON TUESDAY. WANT THE LONGER VERSION?? FRIDAY: AT THIS POINT DISCOUNTING THE MORE NORTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND OF A COASTAL LOW, SO WITH DEEP RIDGING IN PLACE, SHOULD BE LOTS OF SUN. EVEN IF THE EURO IS CORRECT, THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE DRY SO SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FIRST THING FRIDAY WOULD BE ABOUT IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO 925MB (ABOUT 2000FT) IF NOT A BIT HIGHER. THUS THE 12-14C TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG I SUPPOSE, BUT MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL -- 40S TO 50S. SATURDAY: STRONG RIDGING FROM SURFACE TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. SO CONTINUED WARMING AT LOWER/MID LEVELS, WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 16-17C OR SO. THIS SHOULD READILY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 80F (IF NOT A BIT HIGHER) IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, MID/UPPER 70S FOR EVERYONE ELSE. MOS GUIDANCE STILL LOOKING TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS IT`S PROBABLY BEING INFLUENCED BY CLIMATOLOGY. THUS FOLLOWED PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S THOUGHT OF GOING WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHT, SHOULD BE VERY MUCH LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY: SEE SATURDAY. MONDAY: AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER WEST, ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, WE`LL SEE A COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS, BUT THEY ALL INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. SO HAVE ONLY PAINTED IN 15-30% POPS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT DO COOL DOWN, AS DEPICTED IN 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELD WITH VALUES FALLING TO 7-9C DURING THE DAY -- MEANING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S (WARMEST SOUTH). COULD END UP BEING A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS FAR OUT IS IFFY AT BEST. ALSO OF NOTE, THE EURO IS A LITTLE MORE "AMORPHOUS" WITH THIS FRONT, AND SLOWLY OOZES IT DOWN MORE LIKE A BACKDOOR FRONT LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY: DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND EURO, THOUGH BOTH SUGGEST DRY. EURO HAS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDS WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA. GFS IS BUILDING IN A SURFACE HIGH. BOTH SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD TO OUR WEST. STUCK WITH MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND, SO HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...ASIDE FROM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG/BR. BKN-OVC DECK OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENTUAL PARTIAL CLEARING IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT SLK/MSS/MPV WHERE PERIODS OF IFR-VLIFR FOG/BR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SLK. BTV/PBG/RUT ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR FOR ENTIRE NIGHT. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS BY 1330Z WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO JUST A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS WITH VFR ENSUING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY FROM 5 TO 8 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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