Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290754 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 354 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A quasi-stationary front along the international border will settle southward across the North Country during the daylight hours today. This front combined with an upper level disturbance across southern New England will bring a chance of showers, mainly across south-central portions of Vermont. Elsewhere, light north winds will usher in drier air from Ontario and Quebec, with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny across Northern New York and Vermont this afternoon. Canadian high pressure will bring dry weather tonight through Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with pleasantly low humidity levels. The next upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for showers for Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 211 AM EDT Friday...Surface frontal bndry along the international border marked primarily by higher surface pressures across swrn Quebec and sern Ontario will shift slowly southward during the daylight hours today reaching srn VT by 00z this evening. Separate mid-level shortwave trough across central/e-central NY is associated with widespread light rain from Albany southward and southeastward across SERN NY and srn New England. Have seen a few isold showers across n-central VT in deformation zone, and can`t rule out isold showers/sprinkles this morning in spots. As sfc front moves south, will see chance for scattered showers across Rutland/Windsor counties late this morning into early afternoon. Up to 0.10" rainfall possible. Drier air moving in from Quebec/Ontario and passage of mid-level trough to our south will generally result in decreasing cloud cover across nrn NY and nrn VT, especially as we head into the afternoon hours. Temperatures are starting mild (mid-upr 60s) in most spots early this morning with cloud cover in place, so should see highs in the low-mid 80s with good insolational heating this aftn. 2-m dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will begin to fall into the mid-upr 50s across nrn half of the forecast area this afternoon, with north winds increasing to around 10 mph. Generally quiet conditions tonight with light N-NW winds and mostly clear skies. Should see min temps a bit cooler than recent days with advection of lower dewpoints/clear skies/good radiative cooling. Lows mainly in the 50s. May see some patchy fog develop in the favored river valleys of central and eastern VT, and also across the valley locations within the northern Adirondack region. Pleasant conditions for Saturday with weak surface high pressure across southern Quebec providing light north winds and sfc dewpoints in the low-mid 50s. The 00Z GFS indicates 850mb temperatures of +11 to +12C, which should translate to afternoon highs in the upr 70s to lower 80s with nearly full sun. PoPs nil. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 354 AM EDT Friday...A slow moving upper level trough of low pressure will gradually move into the region. We should start to see increasing chances of showers after midnight Saturday night and especially on Sunday. The clouds and showers will also hold down high temperatures Sunday with readings in the 70s to around 80. Areas with the best chance for seeing precipitation will be over the northern Adirondacks of New York and the central and southern sections of Vermont.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 354 AM EDT Friday...Trends in the data suggest upper trough moving into the region Saturday night into Sunday will be slow to clear the region and will not exit until late Monday into Tuesday. Thus looking at a continuation of the showers Sunday night through Monday before gradually tapering off from west to east Monday night into Tuesday. Clouds...precipitation...and cooler 925 mb flow suggest highs only in the 70s on Monday. A warming trend will begin on Tuesday as clouds and precipitation move out of the area...but we will still be in northwest flow aloft. Should be at seasonal normals on Tuesday then better warming for Wednesday and Thursday with highs getting into the 80s for much of the area. Dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 12Z Saturday...Areas of LIFR fog/ceilings will continue through 12Z at SLK/MSS/RUT/MPV and adjacent areas mainly away from the Champlain Valley. Will generally see a return to VFR conditions with clearing skies mid-late morning from NW-SE as a front settles southward across the area. This front may bring ISOLD/SCT light showers across s-central VT/KRUT late morning into the aftn, with dry weather elsewhere. Light and variable winds generally becoming N 5-10 kts late morning through afternoon. Mostly clear with light winds tonight...may lead to localized LIFR radiation fog MSS/SLK/MPV after 06Z Saturday. Outlook 12z Saturday through Tuesday...VFR/mainly clear Saturday with light winds. This will be followed by periods of showers Sunday into Monday with slow moving upper trough moving ewd from the Great Lakes. May see intervals of MVFR conditions SUN-MON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Banacos

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