Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310000 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 800 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/TDS AND SKY COVER TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. STILL WATCHING DECAYING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH AS OF 700 PM...WITH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE LOSE INSOLATION. THUS CURRENT IDEA OF 20/30 POPS...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY THROUGH 900 PM STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW... PRIOR DISCUSSION... PRETTY QUIET WEATHER-WISE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHICH MAY PROVE TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST RAP/BTV6/HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS WELL...BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATES ANYTHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MAY SLIDE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT AGAIN WON`T LAST LONG. ALL IN ALL...LOOKING AT GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND TEMPS RUNNING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S MOST AREAS...LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS AROUND SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE PLACID NY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT 6-15KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM

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