Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 302325 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 725 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 722 PM EDT SUNDAY...WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN ALOFT EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS DRYING ALOFT AND DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE LAMOILLE, WINOOSKI AND CONNECTICUT RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS 05-12Z MONDAY. AREA OF CONFLUENT 700-500MB FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING AREA OF CLOUDINESS...AND MAY GENERATE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/BTV4KM/BTV12KM WRF RUNS ALSO SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION...AND HAVE CARRIED A 20 POP TO COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS. AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...GENERALLY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS 5-10MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 351 PM EDT SUNDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...AND THEN ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE ONLY MODESTLY (PBL DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...AND MID-UPR 80S FOR TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION 06-12Z TUESDAY AND AGAIN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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