Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250741 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 241 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1224 AM EST SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE 930 UPDATE. STILL WATCHING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 9 PM REVEALS BATCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY SKIRTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA UP UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. I`VE HAD TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED AREAL COVERAGE WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF D-2" STILL LOOK GOOD. FRONTAL TIMING STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HOURS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE REST OF VERMONT. EXPECT A RAPID TEMPERATURE FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS NORTH AND THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S SOUTH (WITH SHARPER TEMPERATURE FALLS ANTICIPATED INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT). && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF COLD AIR AND LEAVE THE AREA LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS ON SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MONDAY THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUITE COLD DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONG COASTAL STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MEDIUM RANGED MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHERE SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. AT THIS POINT WITH THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE TRACK AND THE FACT THAT AS OF YESTERDAY THE ECMWF WAS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL WITH THE SYSTEM I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO ADD IN FINE SCALE DETAILS TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 241 AM EST SUNDAY...EXPECT SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TAIL END LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN TO END ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESP EAST. THEN GENERALLY DRY BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THIS MORNINGS ECMWF INSISTS RAPID DEEPENING YET AGAIN OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER IMPACTS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN TOO COMMONPLACE WITH THIS MODEL SO FAR THIS WINTER AND PREFERENCE...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME SCALE WOULD BE TO WAIT FOR MORE CONSENSUS BEFORE TRENDING WHOLESALE IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS MAKES INROADS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD CONSIDERABLY COLDER WEATHER AND ANOTHER SHOT AT FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOWS BY DAY 7 WITH ANOTHER WEAK NRN STREAM IMPULSE.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH SCATTERED SHSN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY. WINDS TRENDING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND FRONT BY 12Z...ABATING AFTER 18Z AS SKIES TREND MAINLY SKC. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...DEVELOPING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...BANACOS/JMG EQUIPMENT...WGH

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