Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 310815 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 415 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND RESULT IN A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 147 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NOT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OHIO WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH NNEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO TO NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH STRATUS LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG/NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. THUS...SHOWING JUST 20-30 POPS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. P-GRADIENT QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT N-NE MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH UPPER LOW DIGGING TO OUR S-SW DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PHASING WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. MODELS VARY ON EXTENT OF PHASING AND ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOW DEVELOPMENT...WITH CLOSED SFC-700MB LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS GENERALLY DRY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SIMILARLY...THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARKS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS PREVIOUS IDEA WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COOL ACROSS THE REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND EASTERN/NERN VERMONT WITH FRINGE INFLUENCE OF LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. LOOKING AT JUST A DUSTING TO AN 1" OR SO ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOCALLY 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 30S EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE MONDAY...WITH BUILDING HGHTS FOR MIDWEEK...BEFORE NEXT TROF DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SFC FEATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READING ACRS THE NEK OF VT. BY MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLW AND LLVL WAA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN -1C NEK TO +1C SLV BY 00Z TUES...DEEP DRY LAYER ACRS OUR CWA. THESE TEMPS WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TUES/WEDS...LLVL WAA CONTS INTO TUES WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DEGREES WITH VALUES BTWN 3C AND 5C BY 00Z WEDS...UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THESE WARM TEMPS WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U40S MTNS TO MID 50S VALLEYS ON TUES...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT IS EXPECT ON TUES NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO MID/UPPER 40S VALLEYS. BY WEDS WEAKENING SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION..WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT IS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS ACRS NORTHERN NY AND CHC POPS ACRS THE CPV AND VT. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <.10". THERMAL PROFILES ARE WELL ABOVE 0C ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 550DM...SO EXPECT ALL RAIN...EVEN ABOVE 4000 FT. WEAK LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND 1ST BOUNDARY ON WEDS AFTN INTO THURS WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALLING BLW 0C AGAIN...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST. NEXT POTENT 5H VORT WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z THURS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS POCKET OF ENERGY...COMBINED WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE PROFILES...WL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME MIX RAIN/SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH LIMITED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION...SO QPF/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WL FOLLOW ON THURS INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS VERY CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS WITH FEATURE RAPID WARM UPS AND COOL DOWNS...WITH OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL CHCS FOR PRECIP.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IR SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES TONIGHT...WITH CIGS BTWN 3000 FEET AND 5000 FEET AGL. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT BTV...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE MENTION VCSH AFT 03Z AT SLK/MSS...AND REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...WL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE COMBINATION OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT SLK...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY MONDAY. ALSO...BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SFC GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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