Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281858 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 258 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 329 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL IDEAS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DATA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THUS LIKE THE IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON LABOR DAY BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND 5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. 12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...KGM

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