Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 100558 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 158 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1251 AM EDT THURSDAY...CLEARING SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOME 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME FOG IN LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY...AND ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN A FEW OF THE OTHER FOG PRONE PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVE CUMULUS CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS...THEREFORE WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW...MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT A MODERATING TREND TO BEGIN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PATTERN WL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS NEXT LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEVELOPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK AND MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY...BUT SYSTEM WL ONCE AGAIN HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL DRY PUNCH. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS FCST AND MENTION CHC POPS SUNDAY THRU TUES...WITH BEST CHCS ON MONDAY INTO TUES ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT/ULVL TROF. EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BTWN 800 TO 1200 J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASE BTWN 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROF AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL WIND MAXIMUM. THIS SETUP WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SCENARIO TO CHANGE. TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. THICKNESS VALUES AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY FLW MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S. ALSO...AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES WL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC COLD FRNT...RESULTING IN TEMPS RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL LVLS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION CONTINUES TO CLEAR SKIES OUT WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY SKC FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS WELL WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCE FOR SOME BR TONIGHT AT KSLK/KMPV/KRUT...BUT THINK IT SHOULDN`T LOWER TO IFR WITH ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING FOG/BR POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV. 12Z SUN - 00Z TUE...VFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...LAHIFF

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