Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280216 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1016 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough of low pressure will move across the region tonight through Friday morning before exiting to our east Friday afternoon. Widespread precipitation is expected tonight through Friday morning before tapering off Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year on Friday and continue right through the weekend. In addition...there will continue to be the chance of showers on Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/...
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As of 1011 PM EDT Thursday...Cooler temperatures near freezing or 1-2 degrees above hanging tough along and east of Green Mountains and in the Adirondacks. Loaded in latest LAMP temperature guidance that reflects the trend, and then also updated snow amounts based on cooler temperatures. Max snow amounts remain the same over higher terrain, however inch or less snowfall extends further east and north in Vermont in the 00-06z time period. Temperatures eventually do rise above freezing after midnight to change remaining snow over to rain. Surface low has moved to eastern Lake Ontario and will continue to lift northeast up the St. Lawrence Valley. IR satellite loop showing coldest cloud tops and enhanced precip lifted northeast, with precip over the forecast area taking on a more showery coverage pattern. We will begin to see cyclogenesis along the southeast New England coast as the upper trough takes a more easterly track. Upper trough moves across the area on Friday. While exiting dynamic support helps to decrease the areal coverage of precipitation... northwest flow aloft develops and begins to enhance orographic precipitation. This should keep accumulating snows going over the higher terrain and generally rain showers at the lower elevations with highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 PM EDT Thursday...A weak ridge will build in Friday night as northwest flow will gradually shift to southerly flow. Low level RH (<850mb) will still be greater than 95% while the northwest flow remains and so I anticipate light showers to remain in the upslope areas on the western slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks due to the orographic lift. These showers however will gradually come to an end as the low level moisture dissipatesby 09z overnight. Even with the loss of low level moisture there should still be ample in RH in the 700-500mb range which will lead to fairly consistent cloud cover overnight. The cloud cover should keep temps from bottoming out, and so the forecast is a blend of available guidance trended a bit warmer than MOS even as the winds weaken. A weak low pressure system passes north of the border on Saturday and the lack of any significant forcing will lead to much of the area seeing light precip but no significant accumulations of rain. Due to us sitting in the warm sector boundary layer temps are warm enough to just be all rain across the North Country. Southerly warm air advection will persist and temps should warm into the upper 40s to near 50s in the Champlain Valley. Overnight lows will be well above normal due to the warm air advection that will persist through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 401 PM EDT Thursday... High pressure begins to build in behind that upper level trough as it passes to the North. This will lead to dry weather to begin the work week. The next "feature" that will impact the North Country is a low pressure system tracks up the through the Great Lakes towards James Bay which does the unfortunate thing by brining a dry warm front through the North country. So we will be looking at a gradual warm up with temps moderating into the mid to upper 50s Tuesday into Wednesday under continued southerly flow. && .AVIATION /02Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 00z Saturday...Mainly MVFR/IFR in rain and snow across the region, with snow mainly over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, mainly above 1000 feet above sea level. Expecting precipitation to wind down across the region by 18Z Friday. Expecting mainly MVFR ceilings after 18Z Friday through 00Z Saturday. Outlook 00z Saturdaythrough Tuesday...A warm front feature lifting across our taf sites on Saturday morning will shift the winds to the southwest with some scattered showers possible...especially MSS/SLK. Expecting mainly vfr conditions with intervals of mvfr cigs possible across northern NY taf sites on Saturday. Gusty southwest up to 35 knots are possible at MSS with 30 knots expected at SLK/BTV on Saturday. Another wind shift to the west/northwest will occur Sat Night into Sunday with additional scattered showers. Drier conditions with vfr flight conditions for Sunday afternoon into Monday. && .MARINE... As of 255 PM Thursday...Several bouts of strong winds and rough conditions are expected on the lake the next few days. South/southeast winds of 15 to 25 knots are expected through late evening, before diminishing after midnight. During the day Friday, winds will switch to the northwest and strengthen, with winds approaching 25 knots for the afternoon and early evening. Winds will diminish Friday night, but then switch to southerly on Saturday morning. Winds will quickly increase again to around 25 knots during the mid-day hours. These strong and gusty winds will result in choppy conditions out on the lake. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Evenson/WGH MARINE...Nash is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.