Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 300823 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 323 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1224 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING OR COLDER. FEW WARMER SPOTS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY SEE RAIN MIX WITH THE SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING BAROCLINIC LEAF (BCL) DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER LOW. WITH THAT IN MIND, EXPECT BEST LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OBSERVATIONS SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE BREAKS IN SNOW AS SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, BUT WITH BCL DEVELOPMENT AND COOLING CLOUD HEIGHTS, EXPECT MOISTURE/SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FILLING IN THIS SHRINKING DRY SLOT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE CLIPPER TRAVERSES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SURFACE LOW SLOWING ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO GULF OF MAINE. THE RESULT WILL BE A TRANSITION OF SYNOPTIC SNOW TO UPSLOPE SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLIER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING BLOCKED FLOW. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...EXPECT 3-7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR ZONES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALL OF NORTHERN VERMONT. DUE TO SHADOWING...ESSEX COUNTY NY AND THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL VT WILL RECEIVE JUST A BIT LESS...WITH 2-5 INCHES EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR WITH NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE FILTERING IN FRIDAY ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COASTAL LOW DEEPENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 925MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN -10C AND -20C FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN TERMS OF SATURDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM A BIT ABOVE ZERO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. COMBINATION OF TEMPS AND WIND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES...WITH POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ADVISORIES FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL ABATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS STILL HAVE THIS LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ON MONDAY. ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE SURFACE ON MONDAY GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIKELY TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT OF SNOW VERSUS NO SNOW ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AREA REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO LATER TUESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER TUESDAY. EXPECTING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITHE SURFACE WIND GUSTS BECOMING AROUND 20 KNOTS OR GREATER BETWEEN 21Z-24Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS OFF THE MAINE COAST. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SATURDAY-12Z SATURDAY...SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS SNOW SHOWERS END. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 12Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR. 12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/NASH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.