Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252313 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 713 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 631 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED HAZE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE SMOKE LEVEL DESCENDING QUITE A BIT...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING MIXING. SEEING VISIBILITIES AT SOME OF OUR OBSERVING SITES DROPPING DOWN TO 6-9 MILES FOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNT MANSFIELD AND SOME OF THE FOOTHILLS ARE NOW NO LONGER VISIBLE FROM THE BURLINGTON AREA. LEFT THE HAZE IN UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW IT BEHAVES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION AS MIXING DECREASES...ESPECIALLY AS GENERAL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT UNDER GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING. SOME CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALSO KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG IN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT AS WE ARE ONE MORE DAY REMOVED FROM RAIN AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS A LITTLE STRONGER (13-17 KNOTS 500-1000 FEET AGL). LOWS 50-60F LOOK GOOD...WITH A FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 346 PM FRIDAY... SHALLOW CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WE WILL JUST BE LEFT WITH THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA TODAY FROM THE WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...WHICH IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. FEEL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL DURING THE DAY AND IT WILL TAKE BETTER FORCING THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY MOVES IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVENTUALLY GETS IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUS LOOKING AT SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS SHOULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY AND ENHANCES PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING DIMINISHES DURING THE WEEK...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF LIKELY POPS...BUT RISK OF THUNDER MINIMAL SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED IN GRIDS. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO MAINE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS VERMONT. UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH...AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WITH COOL POOL ALOFT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS MOST DAYS...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 850 MB TEMPS THEN PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN AROUND +10 C TUE/WED THEN MODERATING SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...MODERATING TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS QUITE EVIDENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. VSBY GENERALLY IN THE 5-8SM RANGE...AND CARRIED 6SM IN THE TAFS. ALSO - SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT - GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 08-12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT S-SW...THOUGH LOCALLY SW AROUND 10 KTS AT KMSS WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW AND CHANNELING IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE SMOKE SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS BECG SWLY AROUND 10 KTS AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z SUN - 12Z MON...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. 12Z MON - 00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. 00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...BANACOS/RJS

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