Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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044 FXUS61 KBTV 252047 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 447 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet but warmer weather is expected through the end of the week. There will be a few chances for some light rain showers, but no significant weather is expected at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 415 PM EDT Monday...Any convection that finally develops this evening will be dying down by about 10pm following sunset. Precipitation will end from west to east across the area. We may see some fog develop in the typically fog prone spots that actually had some rain and therefore abundant moisture at the surface, but confidence is low at this point for any significant fog development. Minimum temperatures will remain in the 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM EDT Monday...Quieter weather returns for Tuesday through Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure builds to our southwest. Temperatures will be above seasonal normals though with mid 80s expected on Tuesday and near 90 on Wednesday with 850 temps in the teens each day. Some afternoon cu over the mountains is expected on Tuesday, possibly a sprinkle or light shower in the higher terrain as a weak shortwave passes along the international border. Quiet weather and clearing skies will return Tuesday night, better chance for patchy fog with better radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the 60s Tuesday night. Wednesday will be the warmer of the two days in the short term with highs edging up around 90. Westerly flow aloft continues allowing aforementioned surface ridge to continue to advect into our region. A weak surface cold front will approach from Canada Wednesday night and will have a chance of showers along with this feature, though not abundant moisture. Wednesday night will be warm and humid with minimum temperatures only dropping into the mid 60s once again. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 336 PM EDT Monday...Surface ridge building in from south central Canada with light north-northwest flow will coincide with 500mb troughing providing a low chance for showers on Thursday. Continued ridging at the surface and slight ridging aloft will keep Friday dry before low pressure system develops to the south/west and brings a chance for precipitation late Friday. Model guidance diverges on evolution of this system associated with two areas of vorticity embedded in the 500mb flow. 12Z ECMWF develops these features into a double barrel surface low pressure system late in the week into the weekend. While 12Z GFS keeps mid level vorts along more southerly route and surface high pressure over southwestern Quebec and the northern New England. High uncertainty in the pattern beyond early Friday. Both models show mid level troughing across the Northeast late Saturday with the GFS much broader than the ECMWF. With these differences noted, have stuck with Superblend with chances for precipitation through Monday. Temperatures generally expected to be near normal, but highly dependent on variability of cloud cover and precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions will exist through much of the period. However still a chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and move east across the area resulting in periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Light winds becoming south and southwest this afternoon at speeds in the 5 to 15 knot range. Showers will push East of the region by about 00z, VFR conditions will continue with mainly cloudy skies in place. Outlook 18z Tuesday through Friday... 18z Tue - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR under high pressure. Isolated showers possible Wed/Thu afternoons. 00z Fri - Sat: Increasing chances for widespread MVFR showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Evenson/Neiles

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