Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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727 FXUS61 KBTV 120848 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 348 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 AM EST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROF WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA FROM 15-00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM 00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO -25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS, EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. BTV AND MPV CURRENTLY STILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. NW WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY 15 TO 20 KTS...THEN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THEN SHIFTING TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. S WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT A.M. LCL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL BE BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. DEPENDING ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...NEILES

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