Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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137 FXUS61 KBTV 292316 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 716 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build in briefly and provide a period of sunny and dry conditions on Thursday, but unsettled weather returns for the end of the week and into the weekend, as another storm system will bring a mix of rain and snow to valley locations, and higher elevation snowfall Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 713 PM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes to the forecast at this time. A surface ridge will continue building into the North Country this evening and the dry air with it really shows up well in the latest WV imagery. Subsidence will continue through the evening and lead to some breaks in the cloud cover. Lows in the valleys should cool quickly and we should see lows in the 20s and teens in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. With high pressure across the area, we should try to take advantage of a nice day on Thursday. We should see mostly clear skies with light winds and light cold air advection. We`ll be a few degrees below normal but temps should still warm into the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday... A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Southern Vermont for the potential for 6-10 inches of heavy wet snow on Friday. Friday will be the most active period as snow moves in late Thursday night and then continues to throughout on Friday before finally tapering off Saturday. The biggest issues with the forecast remain the precip type. Timing will dictate p-type as we will see warm air advection bring snow initially but then a shallow boundary layer in the lowest 1000 feet or so will warm leading to rain. Between 1000-2000 feet, expect a rain or snow mix with more snow than rain, and above 2000 feet expect all snow. The bulk of the precip arrives from noon on Friday through the overnight hours on Saturday. During this time we should see a burst of heavy wet snow with some western slope enhancement. In the watch area expect 6-10 over the 24 hour time period, and a gradient as we move further north. Storm Total snows vary from south to north but the general idea is that along the international border we can expect 2-4 inches. Across central Vermont and the Adirondacks we can expect 4-7 for the duration of the event and again expect 6-10 across Southern VT. I leaned towards some of the colder guidance for hourly temps mainly due to the idea that by Friday afternoon we will be wet-bulbing down and seeing temps likely a few degrees cooler than our normal diurnal process. Please see our winter weather page at www.weather.gov/btv/winter for specific accumulation forecasts and probabilities. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...A low pressure area will off the southern New england coast early Saturday. Expecting steady precipitation Saturday morning to taper off by Saturday afternoon, as the low pressure area slides east out to sea toward Georges Bank by early Saturday evening. Will have slight chance pops for some snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region Sunday night and Monday, with fair and dry weather expected. Models showing some significant differences late Monday night and Tuesday through Wednesday. GFS brings in a chance of rain or snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, while The ECMWF model has precipitation further south and mainly south of New England for Tuesday and Wednesday. Thus, forecaster confidence is low for the Tuesday and Wednesday forecast, given the model differences. Thus, have stuck with superblend pops for Tuesday and Wednesday, and will have a chance of rain and snow in the forecast at this time. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions persist with light winds as surface high pressure builds into the North Country. Isolated light flurries over the Green Mountains will diminish this evening as deck of VFR low and mid level clouds will persist through the overnight, gradually diminishing in coverage and lifting to mid and high level clouds around day break. Winds generally pick up late Thursday morning at 5-10kts out of the north. Outlook 00Z Friday through Monday... 00Z Friday through 09Z Friday...VFR under high pressure. 09Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain and snow. 00Z Sunday through 00Z Monday...Areas of MVFR in scattered light snow showers. 00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon for VTZ011-012-018-019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...KGM

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