Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281748 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 148 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A relatively dry day is expected today in comparison to Tuesday with the areal coverage of showers being a bit limited this afternoon. The best chance to see any showers will be across north central and northeast Vermont with just a slight chance elsewhere. It is still looking like a pattern change takes place beginning Thursday and continuing right into the weekend. Expect warmer and wetter conditions during this period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1018 AM EDT Wednesday...Current forecast in very good shape, and no need to make any meaningful changes other than a few tweaks to adjust for current conditions. No changes to the forecast or rationale. Previous discussion...Going forecast in good shape and no real changes needed at this time. Still some lingering moisture around early this morning with clouds...some fog...and a couple of stray showers. These conditions will linger until just after sunrise and then we should see a window of improving conditions with partly cloudy conditions for a better part of the day. Highs will generally be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. In terms of the convective potential today...shortwave trough that enhanced the storms over the area yesterday has moved east of the region and northwest flow aloft has developed over the area. Not seeing much in the way of any dynamic forcing...but there appears to be a weak shortwave southeast of James Bay that will move southeast today and could provide some synoptic scale lift to the northern tier of our area...especially north central and northeast Vermont. Coldest air aloft has also moved east of the area...but steep mid level lapse rates are expected to develop once again over the area and this may result in sufficient instability for convection to develop. While dynamic and thermodynamic support is not great...it still may be just enough to enhance the potential for showers this afternoon. Have continued the idea of a slight chance of showers over much of the area with a chance of showers for north central and northeast Vermont. The showers should end around sunset and most of the night will remain dry. During the early morning hours...the flow aloft backs to the west and allows a warm front/moisture to move toward the region toward daybreak on Thursday. Thus have included a chance of rain for parts of northern New York around sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...Forecast for the middle to end of the week remains largely unchanged with models in very good agreement with the general synoptic pattern minus some minor timing differences. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Thursday will push a west/east oriented warm front over the region with showers developing across northern New York during the morning, and becoming widespread across the entire forecast area through the afternoon hours and into the first half of Thursday night. Instability is rather meager through the low/mid levels for much of Thursday limiting thunderstorm potential, but as the front begins to lift northward towards the international border Thursday evening/night, some surface instability builds across northern New York so will keep in a mention of thunder there. By Friday morning the front will be lingering around the border lifting northward through the day with shower activity waning late Thursday night into early Friday, but as the region becomes firmly entrenched in the warm sector expect some diurnally and surface instability driven convection to develop Friday afternoon/evening with the threat for heavy rain increasing as PWATs rise to around 1.5". && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled conditions continue to be on the horizon for the weekend as a slow moving cold front to our west serving as the focus for additional showers and thunderstorm development Saturday mid-day through Sunday. Saturday may begin on the dry side as the North Country remains in the warm sector and some weak ridging aloft shifts over the region. As this ridging moves eastward by mid-day, increasing southwesterly flow between the approaching cold front and high pressure anchored northeast of Bermuda will usher in additional moisture with PWATs surging to 1.5-2" and dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s. Several waves of low pressure riding along the frontal boundary to our west combined with ample surface instability will produce periods of moderate to locally heavy rain Saturday afternoon and night, with the front shifting west to east across the area Sunday. Once again, heavy rain will be a concern with model soundings showing unidirectional flow ahead of the front in the low/mid levels with training of storms a distinct possibility. Confidence continues to increase on the potential for flash flooding given recent rains and above normal precip over the past month combined with additional rainfall amounts in the 1-2" range on top of the 1-1.5" we`re likely to see Thursday and Friday. While still several days away, this developing situation bears watching over the next 48 hours. Behind the front, quieter conditions are forecast for Monday and the July 4th holiday as high pressure returns to the region. Seasonal temperatures in the 70s/80s are likely, as well as more comfortable humidity. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Overall VFR conditions through the period. This afternoon we are seeing very spotty shower activity and the precipitation is light and having minimal restriction to visibility so have opted to keep TAFs VFR, although a brief period of MVFR isn`t out of the question. Showers should come to an end by 00Z. After a quiet overnight period, the next round of showers will move into the western stations after 12Z bringing borderline periods of VFR/MVFR conditions and extending to the northern Champlain Valley after 15Z. Winds will be WNW at 05-10 knots with some occasional gusts up to 20 knots through 00Z before going light out of the south for the remainder of the period. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Occasional RA...Slight Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Occasional SHRA...Occasional TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Manning SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...MV

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