Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250803 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 303 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather is expected on Sunday with freezing rain and sleet moving into northern New York during the early to mid morning hours before changing over to rain. Light ice accumulations are expected. At the same time snow is expected across Vermont and will become mixed with sleet over eastern Vermont in the afternoon while the snow changes to rain across western Vermont. In addition...gusty southeast winds are expected across the western portions of the northern Adirondacks and along the west slopes of the Green Mountains. Winds will gust as high as 45 mph across these areas. The winds and precipitation will taper off Sunday night with dry weather expected on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1244 AM EST Sunday...Winter Weather Advisory for all of northern New York except eastern Essex County continues from 1am to 1pm Sunday for snow and sleet accumulations of 1-2" and ice accumulation up to a tenth of an inch. A Winter Weather Advisory also remains in effect for portions of eastern Vermont (Essex, Caledonia, Washington, Orange and Windsor counties) from 6am Sunday to 7pm Sunday, though have included Rutland County with this early evening update. Looking at 2 to 4 inches of snow and sleet, but some freezing rain will mix in across southern Vermont with up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation possible. After perusing the latest 18Z hi-res model soundings and comparing to the 12Z data, decided to modify the forecast to include a little but more freezing rain across southern Rutland and Windsor counties of Vermont, as well as introducing a more widespread mix of snow and sleet across northern Vermont. Total snow and ice accumulations adjusted slightly, but not enough the change current advisories as that still looks good. Previous Discussion...Clearing lower clouds late this afternoon and evening should allow temperatures to cool...but not a significant drop as mid and high level clouds move into the region. Lows should generally be in the 20s. Warm air advection in advance of approaching low pressure system will allow for precipitation to break out after midnight and spread from southwest to northeast across the area. Thermal profile suggests warm nose aloft spreads into northern New York during the morning hours and thus sleet should turn over to freezing rain and produce light ice accumulations during the morning hours before changing over to rain in the afternoon. Meanwhile across Vermont the thermal profile suggests colder air holds on longer and snow should be the initial form of precipitation with warmer air near the surface getting into western Vermont and changing the snow over to rain by late morning...but not before some sleet mixes in and western Vermont picks up a dusting to two inches. From the Green Mountains eastward the low level cold air holds on longer and thus expecting about 1 to 4 inches of snow with sleet mixing in and some places should see sleet accumulations as well. Some light freezing rain mixed in late in the day but areal coverage of precipitation will be decreasing and should have little impact on the area. The other element of this event is the downsloping southeast winds. Parts of the western slopes of the northern Adirondacks and the west slopes of the Green Mountains will see 35 to 45 mph wind gusts from the southeast afternoon midnight tonight and especially during the morning hours on Sunday. This will likely have an impact on some areas and there ability to see any noticeable precipitation as the stronger winds will limit the snow and sleet accumulations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 302 AM EST Sunday...Dry weather is expected for Monday night and Tuesday as ridging prevails at the surface and aloft. A fast-moving shortwave will traverse across the region Monday but don`t anticipate much more than an increase in clouds. Lows will be in the 20s for most, though the Northeast Kingdom will drop into the teens. Tuesday will be relatively mild for late February under a mix of sun and clouds; highs will be in the lower to mid 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 302 AM EST Sunday...Mainly dry weather is expected through the middle of the week. High pressure centered to our south will gradually shift offshore, resulting in southwest flow across the Northeast CONUS. A weak front will slide south out of Canada later Wednesday into Wednesday night, which may result in a few rain or snow showers in the northern Greens and Adirondacks. Uncertainty increases thereafter as the model solutions diverge on the evolution of an upper low crossing the Midwest into the Northeast. A primary surface low looks to develop somewhere over the IN/ON/MI area Thursday, giving way to a secondary low off the East Coast Friday morning. The question is where this secondary low develops; the GFS is by far the furthest north and west, producing a 985mb low just off Long Island. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian NH are further offshore, keeping the secondary south and east of the benchmark. The GFS solution would bring a messy mix of wintry precipitation, moderate at times, to nearly all of our forecast area Thursday night and Friday. The further-offshore solutions would keep precipitation limited to mainly southern Vermont and primarily in the form of snow. Have stayed close to a model blend for this time frame for temperatures and PoPs for now, and limited weather type to rain/snow, though if the GFS is correct, a period of sleet and/or freezing rain would be possible. From Friday night on...a drying trend can be expected heading into the weekend, though some wrap around showers may be possible as the low wraps up to our east. Temperatures look to remain above seasonal normals heading into early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...The TAF period will start quiet with some scattered mid to upper level clouds and light winds from the north. Between 08 and 10Z, clouds will thicken and lower and winds will become southerly/southeasterly at around 10 knots with some gusts to 20 kts expected. By 12Z, widespread precipitation will move into the region starting as snow, then transitioning to sleet and then rain throughout the morning. As precipitation moves in, expect ceilings and visibilities to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR. Gusty southerly winds will increase throughout the morning and peak between 16Z and 20Z at 15 to 25 kts with gusts 30 to 35 kts and turbulence expected aloft. KMSS will be the only exception with lighter northeasterly winds prevailing for most of the TAF period. After 20Z, the widespread gusty winds will start to decrease and precipitation will taper off. Ceilings will start to improve to MVFR/VFR towards to end of the TAF period. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ004- 007-008-010>012-019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ026>031-034-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff/Neiles SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Neiles/RSD

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