Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 292316
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
716 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
Surface high pressure will build in briefly and provide a
period of sunny and dry conditions on Thursday, but unsettled
weather returns for the end of the week and into the weekend, as
another storm system will bring a mix of rain and snow to valley
locations, and higher elevation snowfall Friday into Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 713 PM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes to the
forecast at this time. A surface ridge will continue building
into the North Country this evening and the dry air with it
really shows up well in the latest WV imagery. Subsidence will
continue through the evening and lead to some breaks in the
cloud cover. Lows in the valleys should cool quickly and we
should see lows in the 20s and teens in the Northeast Kingdom
With high pressure across the area, we should try to take
advantage of a nice day on Thursday. We should see mostly clear
skies with light winds and light cold air advection. We`ll be a
few degrees below normal but temps should still warm into the
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday... A Winter Storm Watch has been
issued for Southern Vermont for the potential for 6-10 inches of
heavy wet snow on Friday. Friday will be the most active period
as snow moves in late Thursday night and then continues to
throughout on Friday before finally tapering off Saturday.
The biggest issues with the forecast remain the precip type.
Timing will dictate p-type as we will see warm air advection
bring snow initially but then a shallow boundary layer in the
lowest 1000 feet or so will warm leading to rain. Between
1000-2000 feet, expect a rain or snow mix with more snow than
rain, and above 2000 feet expect all snow. The bulk of the
precip arrives from noon on Friday through the overnight hours
on Saturday. During this time we should see a burst of heavy wet
snow with some western slope enhancement. In the watch area
expect 6-10 over the 24 hour time period, and a gradient as we
move further north. Storm Total snows vary from south to north
but the general idea is that along the international border we
can expect 2-4 inches. Across central Vermont and the
Adirondacks we can expect 4-7 for the duration of the event and
again expect 6-10 across Southern VT. I leaned towards some of
the colder guidance for hourly temps mainly due to the idea that
by Friday afternoon we will be wet-bulbing down and seeing temps
likely a few degrees cooler than our normal diurnal process.
Please see our winter weather page at www.weather.gov/btv/winter
for specific accumulation forecasts and probabilities.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...A low pressure area will off the
southern New england coast early Saturday. Expecting steady
precipitation Saturday morning to taper off by Saturday
afternoon, as the low pressure area slides east out to sea
toward Georges Bank by early Saturday evening. Will have slight
chance pops for some snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. A
ridge of high pressure will build into the region Sunday night
and Monday, with fair and dry weather expected.
Models showing some significant differences late Monday night
and Tuesday through Wednesday. GFS brings in a chance of rain or
snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, while The ECMWF model has
precipitation further south and mainly south of New England for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Thus, forecaster confidence is low for
the Tuesday and Wednesday forecast, given the model differences.
Thus, have stuck with superblend pops for Tuesday and Wednesday,
and will have a chance of rain and snow in the forecast at this
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions persist with light winds as
surface high pressure builds into the North Country. Isolated
light flurries over the Green Mountains will diminish this
evening as deck of VFR low and mid level clouds will persist
through the overnight, gradually diminishing in coverage and
lifting to mid and high level clouds around day break.
Winds generally pick up late Thursday morning at 5-10kts out of
Outlook 00Z Friday through Monday...
00Z Friday through 09Z Friday...VFR under high pressure.
09Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain and
00Z Sunday through 00Z Monday...Areas of MVFR in scattered
light snow showers.
00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected
as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
VT...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday
afternoon for VTZ011-012-018-019.