Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250705 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 305 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS STILL HOLDS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID- LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL FILTER IN 925MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 22C WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. LIFTED INDICES OF - 2 INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE U70S-U80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND, KEEPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 60S WITH THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE M70S-L80S. SLIGHT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AGAIN PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MAXES WILL SEE THE U70S-M80S. A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EASTER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NY EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT, AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD SHOWN BY 06Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 06Z TUESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. 12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. 00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SLW NEAR TERM...SLW SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/KGM

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