Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290722 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A SUNNY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 148 AM EDT SUNDAY... LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE SHOW DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SO I DROPPED TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 757 PM SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECTING THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH DECENT QG FORCING FROM 06Z-18Z. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN THE EVENING. MODELS SHOWING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME LOW VALUES OF CAPE, SO SOME GUSTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS WITH OVERCAST SKIES. MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND WITH FROUDE NUMBERS EXPECTED ABOVE 1 MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER EXPECTED AT THE SUMMITS AND SLIGHTLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREENS. A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH A BIT MORE ON THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. LOWS IN THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 320 AM EDT SUNDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AS WE CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS SFC ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER NRN NY AND VT WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL...THOUGH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MOVE BY WITH THE FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY. GOOD LOW-LEVEL WARMING EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS +5 TO +7C BASED ON 00Z GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. DESPITE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. PARENT SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40F (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). AT THIS POINT...OVERALL QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.50" GIVEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND QUICK/PROGRESSIVE MOTION OF SFC COLD FRONT. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE IS LIKELY OWING TO EXTENDED DURATION OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RIVER FLOWS SHOULDN/T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOME DAYTIME LOW-LEVEL CAA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH 850-700MB FLOW REMAINING FROM THE WSW...SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS 00Z ECMWF STALLS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL WAVE LOW CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUGGESTING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSE TO BROADER AVERAGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND 20 POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT. VALLEY CHANNELED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SWLY GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KMSS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BKN-OVC120-150 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES. WINDS AT BTV INCREASE TO 12-15KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN NY TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST OUT OF GREAT LAKES. 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLK/MPV) TUESDAY MORNING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY PSBL IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

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