Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311955 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 355 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...AFTER A DAY WHICH FEATURED A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED...HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF THUNDER. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE HORIZON. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. R BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0- 6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT CLOUDS IN THE 040-070AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 18-00Z THEN LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH SCT-BKN040-060 AND VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE REGION AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...JMG/SLW AVIATION...SLW EQUIPMENT...JMG

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