Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010819 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 419 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOOK FOR TODAY TO HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE COMING DAYS. THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT FEW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHICH IS GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. DEW POINTS STILL ONLY REMAINING IN THE 50S TODAY...SO ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT LIMITED. FORCING IS ALSO LIMITED TODAY WITH THE MOUNTAINS ACTING AS THE BEST SOURCE OF LIFT. AS A RESULT...FEEL THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS FROM GETTING ORGANIZED. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION COMES TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY BACKS JUST A BIT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING ABOUT MORE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING OF COURSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 419 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY. STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TUESDAY. STILL CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON ANY LINGERING SHORTWAVES IN FLOW ALOFT. BUT OVERALL THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 12-14C MONDAY/TUESDAY...COOLING JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY MID WEEK && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY KPBG...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN TO VLIFR 06-08Z THROUGH 11-13Z. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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