Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300707 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 307 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and seasonable late summer weather is expected today as high pressure drifts atop and east of the area. A surface trough will approach the region later tonight and pass south on Wednesday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Behind this feature dry and cooler weather return for Thursday onward into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 303 AM EDT Tuesday...Another outstanding late summer day is expected across the region as elongated surface high pressure bridges overhead and offshore by this evening. Model blended 925 mb thermal progs are running around 18C by this afternoon which support highs from 76 to 82 under light southerly breezes. Mid to upper level debris clouds will be drifting atop the area over time but the general idea of mostly to partly sunny appears reasonable at this point. By tonight a well advertised surface trough will approach from the north and west along with a broad increase in cloud cover as heights gradually fall in advance of evolving upper trough and cold front digging south across central Canada. Low level convergence along this feature combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates and climbing PWATS into the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range warrant continuation of increased shower/isolated storm threat across the northern third of the forecast area from late evening onward (25-35%). Further south mainly dry weather will continue. Light southerly flow continues, keeping temperatures milder than tonight - mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...Strong Upper level low and trough will drop down across region Thu but ahead of this main feature...falling heights and surface cold front will bring about scattered showers and thunderstorms wed-wed ngt. Models all indicate lots of clouds and moisture around wed thus instability largely stays in-check but some sunshine will allow for capes to approach 1000j/kg thus some sct thunderstorms but wind field light. The progress of the front is somewhat slow awaiting the upper level low and shortwave thus shower threat will linger across vt...esp eastern sections thru the overnight. Thursday: Deep shortwave dropping across fa with crashing heights and surface front still just along new england coast. Enough instability and it will look and begin to feel like autumn on this first day of September with mountain showers and daytime highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Thursday night: Trough continues to rotate across fa with cold air advection thus likely still see some cloudiness but drier air working in toward morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...Deep trough begins to slide east of area with surface high building across region Fri. 850mb temps of 6-8C and 925 mb temps 12-14c suggest 60s to around 70 across the area despite increasing sunshine. The cold pool is across the region fri ngt with min T in the 40s across much of the fa and can`t rule out some upper 30s for KSLK and NE VT. Don`t believe frost will be in the picture. Ridge at all levels dominates the region through the holiday weekend. The coldest Sat morning but moderating with bright sunshine and ridging at all levels gradually shifting east with time...allowing daytime highs to rebound into L-M70s Sat,approaching 80F on Sunday and Lower 80s Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the period. Exceptions at KMPV/KSLK/KMSS where patchy IFR/LIFR br/fg expected in the 06Z-12Z time frame. Winds light and variable overnight (southeasterly 5-10 kts at KRUT), trending south to southwesterly 5 to 10 kts (southeasterly at KPG) after 12Z. Skies generally SKC-SCT250, trending SCT/BKN from 150-250 AGL after 00Z Wednesday. Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...VFR conditions expected through 12Z Wednesday. A cold front moving south from Canada on Wednesday will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region with some areas of MVFR and IFR possible. Expecting mainly VFR conditions from 06Z Thursday through Sunday, as a ridge of high pressure over the western Great Lakes and Canada builds slowly east into the region through the period. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...JMG/Sisson

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