Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 040528 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 108 AM EDT SATURDAY...SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS LATEST IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OUR CWA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT THAN EXPECTED...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S DACKS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV. LAST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL PA/NY ADVECTING INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA TODAY. EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP...AS HEAVIER RETURNS NOW ON RADAR WILL WEAKEN AS MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DEEP DRY LAYER PER 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER. BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C. MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S. WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60). && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW EQUIPMENT...

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