Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291758 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 158 PM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A quasi-stationary front along the international border will settle southward across the North Country today. This front combined with an upper level disturbance across southern New England will bring a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly across south-central portions of Vermont. Elsewhere, light north winds will usher in drier air from Ontario and Quebec, with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny across Northern New York and Vermont this afternoon. Canadian high pressure will bring dry weather tonight through Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with pleasantly low humidity levels. The next upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for showers for Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 158 PM EDT Friday...Little change with this update. Drier air starting to filter in from the north and dewpoint drop into the 50s making for a pleasant afternoon. Still a slight chance of thunderstorms for extreme south and east VT. Morning sounding data at ALB adjusted for afternoon heating shows potential CAPE values up to 900 J/kg this afternoon with 1.71" precipitable water and tall narrow CAPE profile. This in line with blend of model CAPE forecasts. RAP shows 925-850mb thermal axis SW-NE across central VT associated with nearly stationary front. This also aligned with right entrance region and axis of 80 kt 300mb jet moving into the gulf of ME. Noted a couple of shower cells earlier this morning with little movement and up to 1.50" of dual- pol estimated rainfall, so something to keep an eye on. Previous discussion....Surface frontal boundary across far nrn NY marked primarily by higher surface pressures across swrn Quebec and sern Ontario will shift slowly southward during the daylight hours today reaching srn VT by 00z this evening. Have noted N-NW wind shift at PBG/MSS/Potsdam past 1-2 hours associated with this frontal passage. Separate mid-level shortwave trough across e-central NY is associated with widespread light rain across sern NY and much of southern New England, and this precipitation shield will remain well south of the North Country today. Will be monitoring s-central VT for development of a few showers late this morning into this afternoon as frontal zone shifts swd...consistent with high resolution model guidance from NAM4KM, BTV-4km WRF and 10Z HRRR. Up to 0.10" rainfall possible, but generally confined to Rutland/Windsor/srn Orange counties with PoPs 30-40% in these areas. Drier air moving in from Quebec/Ontario and passage of mid-level trough to our south will generally result in decreasing cloud cover across nrn NY and nrn VT, especially as we head into the afternoon hours. Temperatures are starting mild (mid-upr 60s) in most spots early this morning with cloud cover in place, so should see highs in the low-mid 80s with good insolational heating this aftn. 2-m dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will begin to fall into the mid-upr 50s across nrn half of the forecast area this afternoon, with north winds increasing to around 10 mph. Generally quiet conditions tonight with light N-NW winds and mostly clear skies. Should see min temps a bit cooler than recent days with advection of lower dewpoints/clear skies/good radiative cooling. Lows mainly in the 50s. May see some patchy fog develop in the favored river valleys of central and eastern VT, and also across the valley locations within the northern Adirondack region. Pleasant conditions for Saturday with weak surface high pressure across southern Quebec providing light north winds and sfc dewpoints in the low-mid 50s. The 00Z GFS indicates 850mb temperatures of +11 to +12C, which should translate to afternoon highs in the upr 70s to lower 80s with nearly full sun. PoPs nil. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 354 AM EDT Friday...A slow moving upper level trough of low pressure will gradually move into the region. We should start to see increasing chances of showers after midnight Saturday night and especially on Sunday. The clouds and showers will also hold down high temperatures Sunday with readings in the 70s to around 80. Areas with the best chance for seeing precipitation will be over the northern Adirondacks of New York and the central and southern sections of Vermont. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 354 AM EDT Friday...Trends in the data suggest upper trough moving into the region Saturday night into Sunday will be slow to clear the region and will not exit until late Monday into Tuesday. Thus looking at a continuation of the showers Sunday night through Monday before gradually tapering off from west to east Monday night into Tuesday. Clouds...precipitation...and cooler 925 mb flow suggest highs only in the 70s on Monday. A warming trend will begin on Tuesday as clouds and precipitation move out of the area...but we will still be in northwest flow aloft. Should be at seasonal normals on Tuesday then better warming for Wednesday and Thursday with highs getting into the 80s for much of the area. Dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 18Z Saturday...Mainly VFR except local LIFR/VLIFR in FG at KMPV/KSLK 06-12z Sat. Threat of showers across s-central VT/KRUT will continue to diminish this afternoon as cold front with drier air pushes south of the region. Dry weather elsewhere will continue through the rest of the TAF period. Still looking for locally dense radiation fog at KMPV/KSLK by about 06z and should be gone by 12-14Z Sat. Some cumulus at 3500-4500 ft aft 14z Sat with some high clouds moving in from the southwest in advance of a warm front aloft. Winds generally N 5-10 kts through the afternoon. Mostly clear with light winds tonight. Outlook 18z Saturday through Tuesday... Sat: VFR/mainly clear Saturday with light winds under high pressure. Sun: Mainly VFR, possible MVFR in evening showers with approaching weak low pressure. Mon: Areas of MVFR in showers. Local IFR possible with weak low pressure. Tue: Becoming VFR with building high pressure. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/Sisson NEAR TERM...Banacos/Sisson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Sisson

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