Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 312347 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 747 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push across northern Vermont and New York with little fanfare early this evening. Seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity levels will continue into Wednesday. The next chance for precipitation isn`t until Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front sparks showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures remain generally seasonable Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 714 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak cold front moving sewd across nrn VT and nern NY this evening is associated with a band of mid- level cloudiness, but will otherwise pass through the area dry during the next 1-3 hours and usher in a cooler/drier Canadian air mass. Should see skies become mostly clear toward midnight. While a period of north winds 10-15 mph is expected for a brief time after frontal passage, winds will eventually become light and variable during the overnight period. Patchy radiational fog is likely in a few of the valleys east of the Greens and within the valleys of the nrn Adirondacks after midnight given favorable hydrolapse profiles and light boundary- layer winds. 925 mb temps dip to around +9 to +11C overnight. Stuck with a blend of MOS- based and bias- corrected temps for mins this evening, ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s in the Adirondacks up to the lower 50s in the Champlain Valley. Shaping up to be another outstanding day weatherwise on Wednesday under ridge of high pressure and mid-tropospheric height rises. Abundant sunshine to be the rule with any fair weather cumulus to be closely tied to the terrain. Looking at highs once again in the 70s to lower 80s with comfortable humidity levels. Winds generally light northerly and strongly governed by lake breeze and terrain influences. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 PM EDT Tuesday...We will continue to see pleasant conditions Wednesday and most of Thursday as a ridge of high pressure crests Wednesday evening over the North Country. That high pressure will result in partly cloudy skies with still above normal overnight lows on Wednesday evening in the low to mid 50s. Most of Thursday will see dry weather with increasing cloud cover as an upper level low and associated cold front advancing from the Great Lakes. There is quite a bit discrepancy between the 12z suite of guidance. Consensus has the front just east of northern New York by early Thursday evening however speed and intensity differ dramatically from there. The GFS presents a fast moving progressive front that brings showers and thunderstorms but is clear of the North Country before daybreak Friday. The rest of guidance depicts a much slow solution. I feel the GFS has a pretty good grasp of the structure of the front however I feel timing is better with the GEM and ECMWF. So in collaboration with neighboring offices I trending towards sensible weather from the GFS with the ECMWF timing painting a picture of a slower moving front the just enters northern New York Thursday evening and then clears eastern Vermont by mid day Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 333 PM EDT Tuesday...Scattered showers should be spread across the Champlain Valley and eastward early Friday but by mid afternoon the main threat of precip should be over. Pleasant weather then returns for the weekend as a ridge builds in aloft and southerly flow returns. Expect mid to upper 70s Friday through Sunday for max temps with low to mid 50s for overnight lows. Coming out of the weekend there has been quite a bit of consistency in both the deterministic guidance and the ensembles with a long wave trough developing over the central CONUS and then tracking east by Monday. The individual details differ about evolution and track but the general idea is the there will be showers through the beginning half of the work week as the synoptic pattern is favourable for slow moving showers with a cut- off low pressure system. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
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Through 00z Thursday...the aviation challenge tonight will be fog/br potential at mpv/slk. current surface analysis shows weak secondary cold front with ribbon of cumulus clouds pushing across central vt/northern ny. this front has produce some gusty northwest winds 15 to 20 knots this evening...but these winds along with the clouds will dissipate after sunset. temperatures will approach the cross over temps at mpv/slk tonight...but northwest winds continues to advect drier air into the region. in addition...we are now two days removed from rain...so additional boundary layer drying has occurred. thinking a brief window of mvfr is possible between 08z-11z in br at mpv/slk. otherwise...vfr conditions with light terrain driven winds occur at our other taf sites. on weds expect some mountain driven cumulus clouds with vfr prevailing. Outlook 00z Thursday through Sunday...Vfr with surface high pressure continues for thursday...before clouds and showers arrive on thursday evening into friday. A brief period of mvfr cigs are possible along with a few rumbles of thunder, especially mss/slk. clearing with vfr develops on saturday into sunday...with northwest winds.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Taber

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