Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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203 FXUS61 KBTV 091216 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 716 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The north country will be under cold advection today, as a cold front has moved south of the region. Daytime temperatures today will be mainly in the 20s, with a chance of snow showers over the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Saturday, with fair and dry weather expected Saturday through Sunday morning. A warm front approaching the region Sunday night will bring snow to the north country Sunday night and Monday. This will likely result in a messy and difficult commute Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 716 AM EST Friday...Satellite loop showing some breaks in the low cloud cover across the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys at this time, as well as south central Vermont. However, models showing steep low level lapse rates today, so expecting any breaks in the cloud cover early this morning will be short lived, with clouds expected to fill in during the day today. Otherwise, the current forecast is in good shape, so no changes have been made at this time. Previous discussion from 426 AM EST Friday...A cold front has moved south of the region early this morning. The high temperatures for the calender day today have already occurred around midnight, so expecting temperatures today to remain nearly steady or continue to fall slightly. Daytime temperatures today will be mainly in the 20s, with gusty northwest winds making it feel colder. Expecting some scattered snow showers today, mainly over the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains. The north country will be under cold advection today with mostly cloudy skies. Tonight, winds will slowly diminish overnight as a high pressure area builds slowly east from the Great Lakes, as surface pressure gradient weakens. Also, expecting any residual snow shower activity to diminish tonight, as high pressure build east from the Great Lakes. Lows tonight will be mainly in the teens, with some single digits above zero over the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 459 AM EST Friday...West to northwest flow and some weak vorticity embedded in the mid level flow may see an isolated snow shower concentrated around the Northern Greens. Some mid level ridging follows on Saturday night with brief period of ridging at the surface as well. Temperatures continue to be below normal by approx 5 to 10 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 459 AM EST Friday...Late Sunday through Sunday night sees snow spread across the area in strong isentropic lift associated with low pressure system approaching from southern Lake Michigan area. 00Z ECMWF and GFS showing fairly good agreement as sfc low tracks to eastern Great Lakes come early Monday, transitioning to more of a coastal low Monday evening/night near Nova Scotia. Differences in exact track and timing remain with low level thermal profiles differing as well. Overall expect bulk of precip to be in the form of snow starting Sunday evening through Monday morning, possibly some wintry mix Monday during the day for southern Champlain Valley and south central VT. Cold air at all levels rushes back in Monday evening as the sfc low becomes coastal. Models indicate heaviest QPF to occur Monday morning, making for a sloppy commute to say the least. As wintry precip continues all day Monday, expect Monday afternoon commute to also be affected. Wrap around moisture behind departing sfc low in west to NW flow will see snow tapering off Tuesday morning, concentrated around the higher terrain. Storm total snowfall forecast currently sitting at widespread 4 to 7 inches possible through 06Z Tuesday. Lastly, wind could also be an issue on Monday as strong southerly 850mb jet of 30-40kts could persist through Tuesday. Next feature will bring some nuisance snow to the area Tuesday night, ahead of large mid level closed low moving southeastward across central Canada. GFS and ECMWF vary greatly on the track and timing of mid level low and therefore possible surface reflections and associated precipitation potential. GFS remains more active over the North COuntry and ECMWF further south and east, focusing on more coastal systems. Therefore, lots of uncertainty beyond Tuesday. Colder temperatures also in question beyond Tuesday as ECMWF more progressive with large cold pool moving into the North Country faster and stronger. Overall 925mb temps in the negative teens to - 20C look to close out the week. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 12Z Saturday...VFR with areas of MVFR in snow showers, mainly over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Northwest surface wind gusts of 20 knots or greater expected through 03Z Saturday. A ridge of high pressure building slowly east from the Great Lakes will cause surface pressure gradient to diminish tonight with northwest winds of less than 10 knots or less expected after 06Z Saturday. Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday... VFR ceilings from 12Z Saturday through 03Z Sunday. A warm front will approach the region Sunday afternoon, with a widespread light snow event for Sunday night and Monday. This system will produce widespread IFR conditions between 03Z Sunday into 00Z Tuesday. 00Z Tuesday through 00Z Wednesday, areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/MV

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