Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 011158 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 658 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...A FEW FLURRIES STILL OUT THERE FROM TIME TO TIME, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS EXITING NORTHEAST AND SOME POSSIBLE MOISTURE FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN IN NW FLOW. OTHERWISE, DRYING NW FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING, BUT CAN ALREADY SEE SOME DEWPOINT RISES TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY AND COLD TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT, COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED/AIDED BY SMALL JET STREAK AT 250MB OF 100+KTS MOVING OVER THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-12Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z MONDAY-06Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. 06Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR. 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. 12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ001>007-016-017. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ008>012-018-019. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ028>031-087. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/NEILES

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