Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KBTV 091216
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
716 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016
The north country will be under cold advection today, as a cold
front has moved south of the region. Daytime temperatures today
will be mainly in the 20s, with a chance of snow showers over
the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure will build into the
region on Saturday, with fair and dry weather expected Saturday
through Sunday morning. A warm front approaching the region
Sunday night will bring snow to the north country Sunday night
and Monday. This will likely result in a messy and difficult
commute Monday morning.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 716 AM EST Friday...Satellite loop showing some breaks in
the low cloud cover across the Champlain and Saint Lawrence
valleys at this time, as well as south central Vermont. However,
models showing steep low level lapse rates today, so expecting
any breaks in the cloud cover early this morning will be short
lived, with clouds expected to fill in during the day today.
Otherwise, the current forecast is in good shape, so no changes
have been made at this time.
Previous discussion from 426 AM EST Friday...A cold front has
moved south of the region early this morning. The high
temperatures for the calender day today have already occurred
around midnight, so expecting temperatures today to remain
nearly steady or continue to fall slightly. Daytime temperatures
today will be mainly in the 20s, with gusty northwest winds
making it feel colder. Expecting some scattered snow showers
today, mainly over the Adirondacks and the Green Mountains. The
north country will be under cold advection today with mostly
Tonight, winds will slowly diminish overnight as a high pressure
area builds slowly east from the Great Lakes, as surface
pressure gradient weakens. Also, expecting any residual snow
shower activity to diminish tonight, as high pressure build east
from the Great Lakes. Lows tonight will be mainly in the teens,
with some single digits above zero over the higher elevations.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 459 AM EST Friday...West to northwest flow and some weak
vorticity embedded in the mid level flow may see an isolated
snow shower concentrated around the Northern Greens. Some mid
level ridging follows on Saturday night with brief period of
ridging at the surface as well. Temperatures continue to be
below normal by approx 5 to 10 degrees.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 459 AM EST Friday...Late Sunday through Sunday night sees
snow spread across the area in strong isentropic lift
associated with low pressure system approaching from southern
Lake Michigan area. 00Z ECMWF and GFS showing fairly good
agreement as sfc low tracks to eastern Great Lakes come early
Monday, transitioning to more of a coastal low Monday
evening/night near Nova Scotia. Differences in exact track and
timing remain with low level thermal profiles differing as well.
Overall expect bulk of precip to be in the form of snow
starting Sunday evening through Monday morning, possibly some
wintry mix Monday during the day for southern Champlain Valley
and south central VT. Cold air at all levels rushes back in
Monday evening as the sfc low becomes coastal. Models indicate
heaviest QPF to occur Monday morning, making for a sloppy
commute to say the least. As wintry precip continues all day
Monday, expect Monday afternoon commute to also be affected.
Wrap around moisture behind departing sfc low in west to NW flow
will see snow tapering off Tuesday morning, concentrated around
the higher terrain. Storm total snowfall forecast currently
sitting at widespread 4 to 7 inches possible through 06Z
Tuesday. Lastly, wind could also be an issue on Monday as strong
southerly 850mb jet of 30-40kts could persist through Tuesday.
Next feature will bring some nuisance snow to the area Tuesday
night, ahead of large mid level closed low moving southeastward
across central Canada. GFS and ECMWF vary greatly on the track
and timing of mid level low and therefore possible surface
reflections and associated precipitation potential. GFS remains
more active over the North COuntry and ECMWF further south and
east, focusing on more coastal systems. Therefore, lots of
uncertainty beyond Tuesday. Colder temperatures also in question
beyond Tuesday as ECMWF more progressive with large cold pool
moving into the North Country faster and stronger. Overall 925mb
temps in the negative teens to - 20C look to close out the
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR with areas of MVFR in snow showers,
mainly over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Northwest
surface wind gusts of 20 knots or greater expected through 03Z
Saturday. A ridge of high pressure building slowly east from the
Great Lakes will cause surface pressure gradient to diminish
tonight with northwest winds of less than 10 knots or less
expected after 06Z Saturday.
Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...
VFR ceilings from 12Z Saturday through 03Z Sunday. A warm front
will approach the region Sunday afternoon, with a widespread
light snow event for Sunday night and Monday. This system will
produce widespread IFR conditions between 03Z Sunday into 00Z
Tuesday. 00Z Tuesday through 00Z Wednesday, areas of MVFR/IFR in