Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210753 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY... THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION... THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN... ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH. KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME. SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF HYDROLOGY...EVENSON

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