Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KBTV 270223
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1023 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Summer like conditions will persist across the North Country
through the Memorial Day weekend, featuring well above normal
temperatures, more humid conditions, and the threat for afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1018 PM EDT Thursday...minor update to capture latest trends
in temps/dewpoints and clouds. in addition...have continued to
mention slight chance through the overnight hours as weak warm
front continues to be draped across the region. This front
combined with some increasing mid level moisture from progressive
westerly flow aloft will continue the minimum threat for showers.
developing southerly winds will keep temps mainly in the upper 40s
mountain valleys to lower/mid 60s in the wider valleys. all
covered well in the current forecast.
Mid clouds become more abundant through the night area-wide with
very light surface winds, leading to mild overnight lows ranging
from the 50s in the Adirondacks and Central/Northeast Vermont, to
lower 60s elsewhere, which are a good 10 to 15 degrees above
Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned
upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection
to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts
northeastward as a warm front. Axis of best instability and CAPE
appears to be from the Adirondacks eastward through Vermont, where
I`m not thinking we`ll see any real strong storms, but certainly a
few heavy downpours and a few strikes of lightning. 925mb temps
bump up to around +20-22C supporting highs ranging through the
80s, locally warmest in the Champlain, St. Lawrence and Southern
Connecticut River valleys pushing towards 90, but I think we`ll
fall just short in the upper 80s.
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.SHORT TERM /11 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms taper off
Friday night with brief period of surface high pressure into early
Saturday. Min temperatures will be mild in mostly cloudy skies,
ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Saturday will see potential for some afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in temperatures nearing 90 in the broad valleys and
generally mid 80s elsewhere. Saturday night will be similar to
Friday night with regard to warm temperatures and drying trend.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Temperatures remain above normal
throughout the period, with most notable change occurring Monday
as max temperatures decrease from being in the low to upper 80s on
Sunday to the mid 70s to low 80s for the work week.
Throughout the day Sunday, ridge of high pressure slides east
into the Atlantic, increasing southerly flow and moisture over the
North Country. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be
expected as we enter the warm sector of surface low pressure
system over eastern Ontario. This system will keep chance for
precipitation Sunday night through late Monday/Monday night as a
cold front moves through the region.
High pressure builds at the surface and aloft across the
northeast and mid-atlantic states Tuesday through the middle of
the week with generally dry conditions.
.AVIATION /02Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions through the period.
Isolated showers/sprinkles across northern NY will generally
diminish through 03z...leaving just sct-bkn100-120 for the balance
of the overnight hours. Not expecting much fog, but a few breaks
in the mid-deck will permit possible 5-6SM BR at MPV and across
ern VT. Included 6SM BR at MPV 06-11Z. Winds light and variable
overnight. Winds becoming south 5-10 kts for the daylight hours
Friday. Daytime showers and isold tstms possible and included VCSH
all TAF sites except for KMSS after 20-21Z Friday.
Outlook 00Z Saturday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through
Monday time frame.
Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016
thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington
VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of
90F was April 17, 2002.
Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows: 5/27 5/28
BTV - Burlington 91 in 1944 92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1960 88 in 1978
MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 89 in 1978
St Johnsbury 89 in 1914 93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield 76 in 1978 77 in 1978