Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 272058 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 358 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Westerly flow over our area is south of a weak frontal system in Quebec. It will bring partly skies south to mostly cloudy skies in the north along with breezy and mild conditions this afternoon. Weak high pressure tonight will yield fair weather and seasonably mild temperatures tonight. Periods of rain with well above normal temps return late Tuesday into Wednesday as a slow moving front moves across the region. This could produce more rises on our above normal stream levels. Much cooler air arrives by the end of the week...along with chances for mainly mountain snow showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 347 PM EST Monday...A weak ridge of high pressure moves across the region overnight and as the winds turn calm expect a very shallow inversion to develop as radiational cooling will drop our overnight lows into the 20s. How cold it gets will depend on the how clear the skies get but looking more clearing north than south. On Tuesday...Warm advection gets underway with increasing clouds and a chance of light rain showers mainly mid afternoon onward from SW to NE. 925 mb temps rise to 1 to 3 deg C by 18Z which should give us high temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 357 PM EST Monday...On Tuesday night a warm front will lift Northwards across our CWA as a low pressure system lifts Northeastward across the Great Lakes area. We will have scattered rain showers at this time with overnight minimum temperatures achieved early in the night, very mild, then increasing with warm air advection through the overnight hours. Brisk southerly flow is expected. Looks like there will be a chance for some elevated convection, mainly from 06-12z Wednesday morning and have chance of TS mentioned in the forecast during that time. Wednesday will be very warm, likely setting more max temperature records for the day to start out the month of March. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes region eastward on Wednesday, and we should remain in the warm sector all day. Have mentioned stratiform rain categorical on Wednesday. Feel that best chance for thunder will be south of our forecast area. Winds will continue to be strong and gusty out of the South. Wednesday night the cold front will finally cross the area. Any rain showers remaining will change over to snow showers with sharp cold front dropping temperatures into the teens and 20s overnight. Wednesday night the winds will veer around to Northwesterly behind the front and will see some enhancement in the Northwest facing slopes with a bit favorable orographic flow. At this time looks like our QPF totals will range from around a half an inch to an inch.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 357 PM EST Monday...Expect a near normal day on Thursday with snow showers ending as system pulls further east and away from the region. Upper level flow flattens out and a ridge of surface high pressure builds over the area. Below normal temperatures are expected for Friday through Saturday night. Temperatures return to above normal then for the end of the forecast period as high pressure sets up off the Carolina coast for Sunday and Monday. GFS and ECMWF both show a system to impact the region from the Monday night through Wednesday timeframe, though huge discrepancies are evident at this time.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 18Z Tuesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will pull east of the region during the morning hours today. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through TAF period. Only aviation concern will be the gusty pressure gradient winds across the region today. With steep lapse rates and decent mixing expect gusts of 20-30kts at most TAF sites through the afternoon. The low level jet at 850mb will likely cause some issues with wind shear and low level turbulence especially over northern New York, but with the gusts mentioned in the TAF`s I opted to not include any mention of LLWS in the TAFs. Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Saturday... 18Z Tuesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers with variable cigs from VFR to IFR before low pressure and cold front crosses the region Wed evening. 06Z Thursday 12Z Saturday...Becoming Mainly VFR but ocnl snow showers/flurries and MVFR/IFR conditions. 12z Saturday onward...Mainly VFR under high pressure. && .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 400 PM EST Monday...The last river in flood is the Barton River in Coventry. The river level are receding and expect this river to go back below flood stage this evening. We continue to watch Tuesday night through Wednesday night time period closely for the potential for additional river rises associated with several rounds of showers and warm temperatures. Additional snow melt and the potential for river rises...especially given the already high levels. The good news is that most river ice is gone and our areal coverage of deep snow pack is much less than previous event...resulting in less runoff potential. We will continue to monitor for potential impacts.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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We could see some records broken on Wednesday based on our forecast high temperatures. Current records for March 1st are as follows: Burlington - 59 set in 1954 Montpelier - 53 set in 1991 St. Johnsbury - 58 set in 1954 Massena - 49 set in 1954
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Sisson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG/Deal HYDROLOGY...Taber/Neiles CLIMATE...Evenson

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