Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 190717 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 317 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the east coast of the United States will maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday. With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west to east. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...An upper level through will move a shortwave from west to east to our north and will lead to some partly cloudy skies this afternoon. It will also ramp up our winds and wind gusts across both the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys as a tightening pressure gradient will develop winds of 15-20kts with gusts of 25-35kts possible especially over the Saint Lawrence Valley. The shortwave will be moisture starved so I dont anticipate any precip with the system other than perhaps some sprinkles in the Northeast Kingdom late this afternoon. 925mb temps of 12-14C support highs this afternoon in upper 60s to near 70. As the shortwave trough passes, we should see a subtle wind shift as we turn from southwesterly winds to more westerly to northwesterly. This will lead to cold air advection developing and bring temps for Friday back more in line with seasonable normals in the low 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge builds into the region Friday night and Saturday. Should see plenty of sunshine with surface high pressure over the area and above normal temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Winds will generally be under 10 miles per hour. Overall should be a great day for outdoor activities.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...Upper ridge axis shifts east of the area Saturday night through Sunday night with surface high moving east as well. This will promote a south to southwest flow pattern and above normal temperatures are expected to continue right into early next week. Dry weather is expected Saturday night through Monday morning...but a shortwave trough will move across eastern Canada on Monday and we may see some afternoon showers. A more noticeable pattern change takes place Tuesday into Wednesday as large upper trough develops upstream and a more pronounced southerly flow pattern sets up over the area. Showers will become likely Tuesday into Wednesday as a result. Plenty of cloud cover will help lower temperatures...but above normal temperatures are expected to continue.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions through the forecast period. The only impacts to aviation will be wind related as a low level southwesterly jet of 20-35kts pushes into the the area. This will produce LLWS and turbulence for the northern New York sites through the overnight hours. By day break the pressure gradient winds will increase and we start to mix down some of the boundary layer winds. Gusty southwesterly winds will prevail during the morning and into the early afternoon at all sites with 25-35kts expected at SLK/MSS and 15-25 expected elsewhere. A weak and dry cold front is expected to track through the area which will bring in some mid and high clouds but isn`t expected to cause any ceilings or have any impact on aviation other than to end the gusts and see a wind shift towards the west northwest by 00z Friday. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Southerly winds will increase overnight reaching 15 to 25 kts by dawn Thursday as a moderately strong pressure gradient develops. Relatively mild water temps in the upper 50s may mix winds of 30 knots just above the surface early Thursday morning, so could be a bit higher than 25 knot for a few hours from sunrise to noon. This will lead to choppy conditions over the broad lake and will cause hazards to any small crafts especially in south facing bays. Winds should slowly diminish late in the afternoon and then shift to the west northwest 10 to 15 knots Thursday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance through tonight (10/18) and tomorrow (10/19) as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal/Sisson NEAR TERM...Deal/Taber SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Deal MARINE...Deal EQUIPMENT...BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.