Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271123 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 723 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will becomE rather widespread during the late morning and afternoon hours today across the entire area. Also...the potential for thunderstorms will exist and gusty winds and small hail will be possible with any of the storms. The showers and storms end tonight and much of the area will be dry on Wednesday with just the possibility of some showers up along the international border. Below normal temperatures will continue through midweek...but a warmer and wetter pattern sets up for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 723 AM EDT Tuesday...Overall forecast in good shape with no real changes needed at this time. The dry weather this morning will be short-lived as well defined shortwave trough moving out of the eastern Great Lakes early this morning is enhancing convection over western New York state. This feature moves across our area during the late morning and afternoon hours and increase dynamic support across the region for greater areal coverage of showers and isolated storms across our area. Going forecast of convection ramping up into the likely category looks real good. Colder core aloft associated with the shortwave trough will steepen lapse rates over the area and despite cooler temperatures today...sufficient instability will develop with CAPE values in the 200-500 J/kg range. Low wet bulb zero values and layer of drier air in the sub-cloud region both point to gusty winds and small hail with any of the stronger convection. Going forecast already has this in and will continue to maintain. A Special Weather Statement has been issued to highlight the threat of stronger storms. The showers will end across northern New York in the early evening hours and then across Vermont by midnight. Surface high pressure builds into the region behind the departing upper trough tonight and Wednesday. Any forcing will remain north of the border on Wednesday and thus most of the area should remain dry. Could see a few showers up along the international border Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will actually be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s...which is a few degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 423 AM EDT Tuesday...Any Wednesday afternoon convection dissipates going into the evening and overnight hours with the loss of surface heating and a weak ridge of surface high pressure building over the region. As such, it should be a relatively quiet night, and likely the last of the week with active weather quickly returning Thursday as low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will push a west/east oriented warm front over the region. Showers develop along the boundary across northern New York during the morning, and become widespread across the entire forecast area through the afternoon and into Thursday night. Tricky forecast in regards to thunderstorm potential as surface instability is quite weak Thursday morning to mid-day when 0-6km shear is the strongest (60-70kts), but as the warm front begins to slowly lift northward during the late- day and overnight hours instability actually increases while the shear decreases. As such, feel thunderstorm potential will be greatest across central/southern areas during the late afternoon to around midnight, with coverage decreasing towards daybreak Friday as the North Country becomes entrenched in the warm sector.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 423 AM EDT Tuesday...By Friday morning the aforementioned warm front will be lingering around the international border with the majority of the North Country firmly in the warm sector. Over the next 24-48 hours several waves of low pressure riding along a cold frontal boundary to our west will provide ample instability for showers and thunderstorms along with additional moisture and PWATs surging to 1.5-2". While the exact timing of each individual wave is difficult at this time, confidence is growing high that periods of heavy rain from Friday afternoon through Saturday night are likely with additional rainfall amounts in the 1-2" range on top of the 1" we`re likely to see on Thursday. Considering how wet area soils are already, this could be the tipping point to realize flash flood potential and bears watching through the week. Sunday remains showery, especially across northern areas as the parent upper trough and surface cold front look to swings through the region, with quieter and drier conditions expected Monday post fropa. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06Z Wednesday...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move from southwest to northeast across the entire area between 16z and 02z. Note the potential for gusty winds...variable winds at 25 to 35 knots...and small hail...generally less than a half inch in diameter...will be possible with any of the storms. The time period most likely for this activity will be from 16z through 22z. Any showers and storms will quickly be ending between 00z and 04z. Expect VFR conditions through the period...with localized MVFR/IFR conditions near the showers and storms. Winds will generally be from the south and southwest through the period. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Occasional SHRA. Thursday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...Likely TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Evenson

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