Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010000 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MNIOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AN POPS TO CARRY US INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. LOOKING AT AN ESSENTIALLY DRY AND CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ON TAP AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...LOCALLY MILDER NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET ALMOST ANYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR DICUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE WARNING BASED ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH (43 MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA SIZED HAIL. IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING?? TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG. SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE. A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...JMG/NASH SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...LAHIFF

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