Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 231308
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
908 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Dry weather returns to the North Country today and remains
through Monday night. Low pressure passes along the Eastern
seaboard from Tuesday through Thursday bringing our next chance
for showers Tuesday and Wednesday especially across our
Southeastern zones. A surface cold front will bring some more
showers on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 908 AM EDT Sunday...Clear skies will allow for
temperatures currently in the 30s to mid 40s to warm into the
60s today as ridge of surface high pressure continues to build
over the area through tonight. Tonight, mostly clear skies and
light winds will drop temperatures back into the lower to upper
30s, near seasonal normals. A surface low will pass well north
of the region across Quebec, just a slight chance for a rain
showers along the international border, don`t think much will
come of it. With some clouds associated with this feature,
temperatures will be a bit warmer along our northern zones.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast area is split between 500 mb
northern stream closed low moving east out of northern Quebec
and closed low moving east across the gulf states, with zonal
westerlies. East/west oriented surface ridge gets suppressed to
the south as a weak cold front trailing from the Quebec low
crosses the border. Limited moisture and upper forcing with this
feature so no precipitation forecast, but expect clouds along
the front to limit sunshine in the north. Cooling of 850 mb
temps along the canadian border near 0 C, and +3 to +5C in the
south, to support max temps near 50 north to near 60 south. By
Monday night southerly low level flow reasserts itself and the
front retreats northward.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 318 AM EDT Sunday...The southern stream low will be the
dominant feature early in the extended period as it moves up the
Atlantic coast and across southern and eastern New England
Wednesday and Thursday. Low level easterly flow ahead of the low
on Tuesday will spread moisture and cooler temperatures into
New England, with cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to near
50 in southeast portion of the forecast area, and warmer near 60
to the north and west. Chance for showers begin Tuesday as the
low approaches, with likely POPs Tuesday night and Wednesday as
the low passes.
A break Wednesday night and much of Thursday as the low pulls
away and a cold front approaches from the west, and the region
finds itself under shortwave ridging. Strong south wind ahead
of the front and warm air advection will boost Thursday max
temps into the 70s. Front is a little delayed from guidance we
were looking at this time last night, with timing now late
Thursday evening/overnight periods. Still enough residual
instability from daytime heating to support mention of thunder
with showers that will accompany the frontal passage. GFS is a
little more progressive, pushing the front east of the forecast
area by midday Friday, while ECMWF is slower with showers
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR at all sites thru 24 hr TAF forecast
period. Dry air associated with high pressure. Winds will be
light. During the morning to late afternoon hours expect the
pressure gradient flow to pick up over the Saint Lawrence as
winds become southwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20kts
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA.