Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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530 FXUS61 KBTV 280740 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 340 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure system continues to push eastward across Quebec. Scattered showers redevelop Tuesday as surface front moves west to east across our area. Wednesday and Thursday will be drier with ridge of high pressure building south out of Canada and over the North country. Another storm system looks to affect the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1107 PM EDT Monday...The North Country is in between mid- level troughs this evening. The leading shortwave trough - which brought this morning`s precipitation (0.30" at BTV since midnight) - is exiting ewd across nrn Maine and New Brunswick. There is a weaker shortwave and associated surface trough across sern Ontario and swrn Quebec, with is maintaining a moist S-SE flow across the North Country overnight. Not anticipating much change in wx conditions next 6-12hrs...with temps generally holding above freezing in the 35-40F range with low overcast in place. Dewpoint depressions are small, and have seen some developing fog at MSS/Potsdam this evening. With upr 30s dewpoints over the existing snowpack, could see some additional patchy dense fog overnight. Deep-layer forcing is limited. In fact, NAM/RAP soundings show mid-level drying thru the remainder of the any lingering precipitation should primarily be drizzle or perhaps a light orographically induced rain shower or two. Only change with this update was to include patchy fog areawide. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday....The upper trough and attendant backside energy then depart east on Wednesday night with broad, albeit short-lived ridging at lower and mid levels building across the area later at night into Thursday. As such, any northern mountain snow showers/flurries will gradually end Wednesday night setting the stage for a partly to mostly sunny day on Thursday. Low temperatures a bit tricky and will be dependant on amount of clearing or lack thereof, but generally stuck with blended guidance showing values in the 20s to locally near 30 in the Champlain Valley and slightly cooler in northern NY where clearing probabilities are higher. Thursday highs from the upper 30s to mid 40s still look on track as advertised by prior forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...By Thursday night mainly clear skies gradually give way to increasing mid and higher level clouds as first signs of next system arrive on warm thermal advection rippling in aloft. There will be increasing chances of light snows across our far southwestern counties toward morning, but uncertainty on arrival time of precipitation puts low confidence on any potential minor accumulations in these areas through sunrise Friday. Lows mainly in the 20s. By Friday into Friday night, deeper moisture will ride northeast into our area on increasing warm thermal advection and a fairly robust southwesterly 850 mb jet as low pressure tracks northeast from the Ohio Valley. Thus will continue the idea of widespread precipitation arriving southwest to northeast over time into Friday evening as highs top out from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Depending on arrival time, some of the morning precipitation may fall in the form of wet snow across the southwestern half of the forecast area before a transition to all rain below 1500 feet by late morning/early afternoon. Any accumulations should be minor to negligible. Higher up, precipitation may fall as a mix of rain/snow or even all snow for elevations above 2500 feet given wet bulbing processes and 850 mb temperatures hovering around the 0C mark give or take a degree or two. Several inches of wet snow will be possible in these higher elevation areas, especially by Friday night as thermal profiles cool slightly and snow levels lower accordingly. A mix with wet snow may even occur to the Champlain/St. Lawrence Valley floors for a brief while Friday night, but little if any accumulation is expected. Looking further out, a general trend toward quiet weather is expected on Saturday as scattered rain/snow shower activity gradually tapers off and sets the stage for a mainly dry Sunday/Monday. Temperatures will remain close to seasonal early April norms with highs ranging through the 40s and overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR to VLIFR will continue through the overnight hours and into the morning hours before a slight lift to MVFR/IFR through the remainder of the period. Some scattered rain showers are likely from mid-morning through the evening as a cold front shifts into the region with brief reductions in vsby. Light winds shift to the northwest at 5-10 knots behind the front after 18Z across northern New York and after 21Z across Vermont. Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday... 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in scattered scattered rain/snow showers, mainly across central/northern Vermont. 00Z Thursday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR. Isolated snow showers over higher terrain. 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday...VFR under high pressure. 12Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...Areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.