Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282327 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 727 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front remains on the edge of the international border and will slowly track southward this evening and tonight. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will die down following sunset, by about 9 pm. A few showers are possible again on Friday across South- Central Vermont as the low-level frontal zone continues to shift southward into southern New England. Cooler and drier air will filter in across Northern sections for Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 720 PM EDT Thursday...Convection winding down across the area after a busy but low impact afternoon. A few lingering showers should continue to dissipate. Humid conditions and some clouds will remain however, with patchy fog in the forecast for much of the area, especially for spots that received rain today. Some drier air over southern Ontario will make its way into northern St. Lawrence County, however satellite showing another slug of mid level moisture over central/western NY that has a trajectory to bring it across our forecast area. Only minor changes with this update to tweak hourly temps and dewpoints to match obs. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than normal, generally lower 60s. Current forecast does a nice job on phasing pops out and no changes needed there. On Friday a low pressure system off the coast of NJ and NY will track Northeastward toward Cape Cod. There will be some heavier rain with this feature well to our Southeast, but we could have some showers across our Southeastern zones, mainly Southern Vermont. High temperatures on Friday will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 PM EDT Thursday...Any lingering precipitation will come to an end Friday evening. Drier and cooler weather will be the main story for Friday night through Saturday night as a ridge of high pressure builds over the area. Temperatures will be very near to seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...Ridge of surface high pressure slides east as a broad mid level trough brings clouds and chance for showers into the North Country from the South. Models disagree on how far north the precipitation will reach, therefore kept POPS at chance. The main axis of the aforementioned trough will moves through the region on Monday, keeping a chance of showers before exiting east Monday night. This will be followed by ridging and dry weather through Wednesday night. The next chance for precipitation will be Thursday into Friday with the approach of another mid level trough. Temperatures will start near normal with a warming trend throughout the week. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 18z Friday...Generally VFR with SCT-BKN070-100 much of the day. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through 00z, and then gradually diminish in coverage during the evening hours. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR possible in shower and thunderstorm activity with brief heavy downpours. Mainly carried VCSH in TAFs and will take care of thunderstorms with tempo groups. Winds generally light S-SW, becoming light N-NW with weak frontal passage this afternoon...and remaining light north tonight. Patchy fog possible during the 06-12Z Friday period, especially at locations seeing shower/thunderstorm activity during the aftn/evening period with residual wet ground conditions. Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated -SHRA possible s-central VT/KRUT during Friday afternoon. Chance for additional showers on Sunday, with isolated -TSRA possible mainly across Southern sections. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Hanson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Neiles

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