Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231753 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 153 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1241 PM EDT TUESDAY...ADDED A LITTLE PATCHY -DZ ACROSS THE DACKS AND FAR NRN GREENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PER CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE JUST SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS/SKY THROUGH SUNSET TO ACCT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS SOUTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH AS CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS MILDEST SOUTH (L-M 60S)...COOLER NORTH (MAINLY 50S) UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY RIGHT ABOUT 60. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT SO FAR TODAY. CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR, WITH EVEN SLK SOCKED IN WITH IFR WITH SOME DRIZZLE FALLING FROM THOSE LOW CLOUDS. AS TYPICAL IN EARLY FALL, THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. STILL FEEL THAT WILL HAPPEN NEAR SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE), LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY FORECAST, THERE ARE ALWAYS EXCEPTIONS. IN THIS CASE, TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED IN RIVER VALLEYS AND POCKETS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE SLK AND MPV TO TANK DOWN TO LIFR SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS MSS AND PBG MAY ALSO SEE A TOUCH OF FOG. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A TEMPO FOR MSS AS THEIR WINDS GO CALM EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG OVER THE RIVER ADJACENT TO BTV, BUT HOPEFULLY THAT WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE AIRFIELD, THUS NO MENTION IN THE TAF. AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE VFR EVERYWHERE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...NASH

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