Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 260205 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1005 PM EDT MONDAY...STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT...BUT STILL PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FROM TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THIS IDEA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. 06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.