Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180856 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 456 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...TODAY WILL START OFF WITH SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM GREAT LAKES NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR CWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY THE EVENING HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY 18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY... A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AT NIGHT. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK. OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY. HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO MUCH. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06 TO 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT KSLK. 12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH G25 KTS MIDDAY. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...SISSON

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