Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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056 FXUS61 KBTV 241921 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 321 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an end this evening as upper low pressure slowly pulls away to the north and east. A weak cold front will push into the region by Wednesday afternoon with a renewed threat of showers and storms, especially across northern counties. Behind this system, building warmth and humidity will bring the first summerlike conditions to the region for the remainder of the work week and into the upcoming holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Upper level low pressure continues to pivot while lifting slowly northeast along the New England coast this afternoon. Backside deformation combined with spoke of deeper moisture and boundary layer convergence/weak instability will promote scattered showers/isolated storms through early evening across our central and eastern VT counties, with dry weather expected across northern NY. By later this evening/tonight any lingering clouds east will generally dissipate as the low pressure pulls further east, leaving a mainly clear night across the area from roughly midnight onward. Given wet ground from today`s rainfall, favorable hydrolapse profiles and light boundary layer winds patchy mist/fog will also be likely across our southern and southeastern VT counties. Low temperatures a blend of available MOS and bias-corrected data offering values generally in the 40s to lower 50s. On Wednesday short range models remain consistent in showing a weak surface trough pushing into the region by the afternoon hours. Some rather distinct differences among latest MET/MAV MOS output regarding rain chances with this feature. However as steep low level lapse rates interact with a slight increase in boundary layer moisture and nominal instability we should see scattered showers and a few storms develop across southern QE/ON and progress into our northern and central counties by mid to late afternoon. No severe weather is expected, but enough 0-6 km shear combined with the deeply mixed boundary layer and passage of a northern stream H5 vorticity center to allow for a few storms to produce brief gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. Highest confidence on this occurring would be from the Adirondacks north and east across the northern half of VT in the 3-9 pm time frame. Latest blended 925 mb thermal progs support seasonally warm temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, perhaps a few mid-80s across the Champlain Valley into southern VT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday evening will see some lingering showers as an upper level shortwave continues to affect the North Country. Showers will exit south and east as the shortwave shifts into the Gulf of Maine. Drying trend for the rest of Wednesday night with mild temperaturesin the mid 40s to mid 50s, as ridging aloft builds into the region. On Thursday, 925mb temperatures increase to the upper teens to near 20C. Southerly flow and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will accompany maximum temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging will be interupted by a weakening upper level shortwave moving from west to east Thursday night. This will result in increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The mid-upper level pattern transitions to keep the North Country in the periphery of ridging which looks to allow a chance of convective showers and thunderstorms every day through the weekend. There is the potential for a cold front to move through the region over the weekend, which could lead to a break in precip and slightly cooler temperatures. Overall, much uncertainty exists in the long term due to more zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will continue to be above normal throughout the period. && .AVIATION /19Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the period. SCT/BKN mid level clouds and spotty showers/isolated thunder possible at KRUT/KMPV terminals through 00Z, otherwise dry weather is expected with light and variable terrain-driven/lake breezes less than 10 kts expected. After 00Z VFR continues with light winds. Increasing confidence of patchy IFR/LIFR in BR/FG at KMPV/KRUT in the 06-12Z time frame owing to wet ground from today`s rainfall adding low level moisture to the surface layer. After 12Z Wednesday, VFR continues with mainly clear skies. There will be an increasing threat of showers and a few storms after 18Z, but this is beyond the forecast at this point. Outlook 18Z Wednesday through Sunday... 18Z Wed through 02Z Thu...VFR with scattered showers/storms, mainly at northern terminals. Any heavier shower/storm may produce brief IFR/MVFR visibilities and enhanced turbulence. 02Z Thu through 12Z Fri...mainly VFR/high pressure. 12Z Fri onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, especially on && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG

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