Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251946 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 346 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WE WILL JUST BE LEFT WITH THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA TODAY FROM THE WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...WHICH IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. FEEL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL DURING THE DAY AND IT WILL TAKE BETTER FORCING THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY MOVES IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVENTUALLY GETS IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUS LOOKING AT SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS SHOULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY AND ENHANCES PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING DIMINISHES DURING THE WEEK...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF LIKELY POPS...BUT RISK OF THUNDER MINIMAL SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED IN GRIDS. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO MAINE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS VERMONT. UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH...AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WITH COOL POOL ALOFT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS MOST DAYS...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 850 MB TEMPS THEN PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN AROUND +10 C TUE/WED THEN MODERATING SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...MODERATING TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES HAS WORKED INTO FORECAST AREA DUE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMOKE LAYER MAINLY ALOFT...BUT SOME MINOR REDUCTION IN VSBY TO AROUND 6 MILES POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF FOG AT MPV AND POSSIBLY SLK BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR AT MPV AND ONLY TEMPO FOR MVFR AT SLK. REST OF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. VFR SATURDAY WITH SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT MSS. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS SATURDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SAT - 12Z MON...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. 12Z MON - 00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. 00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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