Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301904 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 304 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...POSITIVE TILT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEATHER GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL...WITH SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND DEVELOPING AFTN CU WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD...AND MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SRN FRANKLIN/ESSEX NY COUNTIES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED 20% POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DRY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (MAINLY SSW-SW 5-8 MPH WITH DEEPER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON). && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 357 AM EDT SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VT MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD FIRMLY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TONIGHTS MINS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOME CLOUDS REMAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 254 PM EDT SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BE AROUND...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MON-THURSDAY...VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...NEILES

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