Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280224 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 924 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STARTING A COLDER TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 918 PM EST SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS NOW TRACKING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. THIS HAS PLACED THE REGION IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING. WARM FRONTAL FEATURE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY IS BRINGING A BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO SEEING A NOTICEABLE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES POST-WARM-FRONT WITH UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S NOW NOTED IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WARM FRONT...COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (<0.10" IN THE LARGER VALLEYS AND <0.25" IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION STREAMS INTO THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPS WILL BE REACHED ON SUNDAY AND HAVE TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALMOST EXACTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 249 PM EST SATURDAY...SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH WESTERLY...GENERALLY CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER CP AIRMASS. MEAN 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON TUESDAY...GRADUALLY WARMING BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SLOWLY MODERATES. THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME MODEST LAKE RESPONSE AND EXPECT PERIODIC FLURRIES/SHSN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE IMMEDIATE HIGHER GREEN MTN PEAKS IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...ESP ON THURSDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS/BACKS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SFC TROUGH. A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NRN NY SNOWBELTS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY WRITE HOME ABOUT. MAINLY DRY IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AS H5 POLAR TROUGH REORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. WILL MONITOR TRENDS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...BUT GENERAL MODEL IDEA AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO TAKE A TRACK ATOP OR NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INITIAL LIGHT SNOWS FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TO TRANSITION TO MIXED PCPN AND THEN MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST AREAS AS THE DAY WEARS ON DURING SATURDAY. GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME RANGE WILL BROADBRUSH WITH 40-60% PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN AT THIS POINT OFFERING SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 30S. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...OVC MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH 00Z WITH FLIGHT LEVELS VARIABLE FROM 030-050 AGL. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 03Z COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE 03-12Z TIME FRAME. MVFR CIGS TREND MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH OROGRAPHIC SHADOWING EFFECTS KEEPING KBTV/KPBG/KRUT MAINLY DRY. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE ARRIVAL OF 40-50 KT PRE-FRONTAL JET IN THE 020-050 AGL LAYER WITH ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED TURBULENCE. KBTV/KMSS/KSLK WILL TAP INTO SOME OF THESE WINDS WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. MORE LIMITED MIXING AT KPBG/KMPV/KRUT WHERE LESS GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED. AT THESE TERMINALS SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS AROUND 40-45 KT WILL BE OFFERED. AFTER 12Z COLD FRONT CLEARS EAST WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUSTY THROUGH MIDDAY THEN GRADUALLY ABATING. SOME SCT -SHRASN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KSLK...TRENDING DRY ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SCT -SHSN AND OCCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS TO PREVAIL. && .MARINE... LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES BUILDING 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH SOME HIGHER SWELLS POSSIBLE. AS A SFC COLD FRNT APPROACHES LAKE CHAMPLAIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WL INCREASE ALONG WITH WINDS 1000 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER. THESE WINDS WL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY WEAKENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG/SLW MARINE...TABER

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