Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201436 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 936 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARMUP OCCURS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 936 AM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IMPACTING PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH REPORTS OF 6 INCHES ALREADY NEAR WEST FOWLER NEW YORK AND 8 INCHES JUST NORTHWEST OF GOUVERNEUR NEW YORK. LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES NEW YORK. THUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHARP SW TROUGH AND FRONT BOUNDARY SWEEP INTO THE AREA AS MEAN FLOW TRENDS WESTERLY AND LAKE SNOW BAND SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH OUT INTO THE TUG HILL. ELSEWHERE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...SO A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VT AND THE REMAINDER OF NRN NY OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOW BAND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. INTERESTINGLY...FLOW BECOMES MODESTLY BLOCKED WITH FROUDE NUMBERS DROPPING INTO THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. THUS SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL FROM MT ELLEN NORTHWARD PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. TIME WILL TELL AS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LAKE SNOW BANDS AND FRONTAL ZONES ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT BEST. LOWS QUITE CHILLY ON GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW...GENERALLY 10 TO 20. BY FRIDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SLOWLY WANE OVER TIME WITH VALLEYS LARGELY DRY AS LARGE CP HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. P-GRAD REMAINS QUITE TIGHT ON THE FRONT END OF THE HIGH HOWEVER...SO GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUT QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS IN COLDER NRN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. SFC RIDGE AXIS THEN CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH RIDGE CENTER WELL SOUTH...AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED SO DID TREND JUST A TAD MILDER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE LOW TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID...IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY COLD STRETCH WITH READINGS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE FOR MOST SPOTS. BY SATURDAY FIRST SIGNS OF A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM-UP WILL BEGIN AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST MAKES FORWARD PROGRESS ENE TOWARD OUR REGION. BY AND LARGE IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT DID OFFER SOME CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE DAY/TOWARD EVENING ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES PER BLENDED GUIDANCE OUTPUT SHOWING SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AT MID LEVELS. KEPT THINGS AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MIX WITH PL/-FZRA AS WELL. QPF WOULD BE LIGHT HOWEVER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC, MODERATING S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SLV AND ADKS IN THE SW FLOW, AS CLOSED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE. WARMER AIR ON THESE DATES WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS NEAR THE MID 40S-50S. AFFECTS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE FELT AGAIN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALL THE WANT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF IT. WITH THIS SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT, A LACK OF UNIFORMITY IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY MIX THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR KSLK AND, AT TIMES, KMSS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EXPECTED AT 15-25KTS AS SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 KTS. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. && .MARINE... AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR OR AT ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY/TONIGHT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. WAVES FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING...AND 1-3 FOOT RANGE THEREAFTER CREATING A LIGHT TO MODEST CHOP ACROSS BROAD LAKE WATERS AND IN BAYS/INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EXPOSURES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ029-087. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ030. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM MARINE...JMG

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