Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 042342 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 725 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY NOMINAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO SKY COVER AND T/TD DATA TO SHORE UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. LOOKING AT A VERY PLEASANT EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY 900 PM. PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 310 PM EDT FRIDAY... WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY OVER REGION. HAVE NOTED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMP PROFILES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR. EXPECT A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH COOLEST READINGS IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS...WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE MIDSLOPES AND RIDGETOPS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F AT SLK/COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NEK TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW A DEVELOPING 975MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NY TONIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MIXED AND PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. BEST CHC OF FOG WILL BE CENTRAL/EASTERN VALLEYS OF VT AFT 06Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. STILL WATCHING A WEAK INITIAL 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MOISTURE THAT IMPACTS OUR WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY AFTN. SYSTEM HAS LIMITED FORCING AND IS RUNNING INTO A STRONG RIDGE WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR...SO WILL KEEP VERY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR AN AFTN SHOWER OVER NORTHERN NY. THINKING IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT WILL OCCUR OVER THE TRRN...DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN HOURS. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS FROM 850 TO 500MB ON SUNDAY AFTN...AS PWS APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. FORCING AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF PRECIP. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14 AND 16C SUPPORT HIGHS UPPER 70S MTNS TOWNS TO MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS LOCATIONS LIKE BTV/VSF AND MSS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN...EXCEPT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DWPTS BACK INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO LOWER/MID 60S CPV AND URBAN AREAS. ON SUNDAY PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE NEAR 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND WARM DAY FOR LABOR DAY. GFS MODEL HINTS AT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A DRY DAY FOR LABOR DAY. THUS...HAVE STUCK WITH THE LOW SUPERBLEND POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL AGAIN HINTING AT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS IT DRY AND KEEPS ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF THE REGION IN CANADA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT LOWER THAN SUPERBLEND POPS ON TUESDAY AND JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRINGING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGESTING A DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED SUPERBLEND POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR SLK/MPV OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG AND BACK TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING TO LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SAT-00Z TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR VLIFR/IFR FG/BR LIKELY AT KSLK/KMPV 06Z-13Z EACH MORNING. 00Z TUE-00Z THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/MV

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