Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 241841 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 241 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will be moving east out of the area as the morning wears on today. Sunshine is also expected to develop as well. Highs will be a few degrees above normal today then return to seasonal normals on Sunday as clouds increasing along with the chance for showers. Unsettled weather is expected for much of next week with chances for showers just about everyday. Temperatures will be slightly below normal through midweek then slightly above normal for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 935 AM EDT Saturday...Minor update to slow clearing trends a bit through the morning hours east, and to massage pops across VT counties through late morning. Still expecting deeper drying this afternoon as boundary layer mixes out and dewpoints lower into the 50s under developing westerly flow. By later this afternoon additional weak trough line will approach the intl border, so the idea of scattered showers/isolated storms far north later in the day into this evening still looks on track. With PWATS lowering to below an inch, excessive rainfall rates will not be an issue as was the case yesterday. Have a great day. Previous discussion...Transition day today with "cold" front moving west to east through the forecast area and lower humidity air advecting in from the northwest. The line of showers we`ve been watching all night has moved east of Champlain valley ahead of the front, and will continue on eastward during pre- dawn hours and exit Vermont. Front has moved out of St. Lawrence Valley into the northern Adirondacks with surface winds turning westerly in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties NY and dewpoints starting to fall into the 60s. Light convection firing to the south in the central Adirondacks, while 88D radar picking up a fine line signature to the north. Today through tonight a full latitude upper trough deepens across the east central US with southwest flow over the northeast. A shortwave trough moving out of the mean trough will pass over the area this morning through mid day. Shortwave along with forecast CAPE 500-700 j/kg near the Canadian border will keep chance pops alive mainly in the north. Noticeably drier air works in this afternoon and overnight, and along with a shortwave ridge aloft will diminish rain chances overnight. Front is cold in name only, with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s today. 850 mb temps support a few degrees warmer, however clouds around should limit the potential. Cooler temperatures tonight, with lows in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...A stronger shortwave in the long string of shortwaves rotating around the broad upper trof will increase rain chances Monday. Some instability will allow for at least isolated thunder during the afternoon hours and have allowed at least some limited chances for thunder in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures remain below normal through Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 239 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled extended forecast continues. An upper level trough will dominate through mid week before the flow becomes more zonal. Despite flattening flow, the net change on the sensible weather will be minimal though as shortwaves will still be moving through the the zonal flow. In addition, nearly stationary boundary will be present near the area with increasing instability toward the end of the week. Good chances for thunderstorms on Thursday, and again toward the end of the week. Below normal temperatures are expected through most of the extended, with a warming trend from mid week and later.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through 03Z with mainly SKC to scattered cigs in the 040-080 AGL range. Winds generally west to northwesterly from 8-13 kts and occasionally gusty into the 15-20 kt range. A weak trough dropping south toward the intl border may spark a few showers in the 22-03Z time frame with highest probability of occurrence at KMSS. Most terminals should remain pcpn-free however. After 03Z winds abate to light with differing signals on degree/coverage of patchy br/fg across the area. Despite ambient flow from 10-15 kts just off the deck, wet/near saturated soils from recent moderate/heavy rainfall boosts confidence on more bullish solutions. Fow now will offer patchy 2-5sm br at most terminals in the 06-12Z time frame, though admittedly whether specific terminals actually fog in is a matter for debate. Highest probabilities at favored terminals of KMPV/KSLK and to a lesser extent KRUT. After 12Z Sunday VFR returns with sct cigs from 050-090 AGL as winds trend light south/southwesterly from 4-8 kts. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...JMG/Hanson SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...JMG

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