Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230818 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 318 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST...CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. WARMER AIR WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1240 AM EST SUNDAY...INFLUX OF WARM AIR CONTINUES IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 850MB WINDS AT 35-45KTS. TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION RANGE FROM MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING SUCH AT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS - TPK AT 32 DEGREES- AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN AND SOME VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN ISOLATED/SPOTTY AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE S/SW FLOW CANNOT SCOUR OUT COLDER AIR. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY FROM NRN NY EASTWARD INTO VT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD YIELD A DRIER DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER ON SUNDAY AS WELL...GENERALLY SOUTH 8-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FOR MOST SECTIONS. DEEP LOW TRACKING NEWD THRU THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOOKING AT STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH DEVELOPING RAINFALL AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH 0.30-0.60" RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON STRONG S-SE WINDS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS LOCALLY TO 35-40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH STRONG S-SW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +10C...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS 55-60F ON MONDAY AFTN...DEPENDING ON SUNNY BREAKS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL COOLDOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY (MID 30S). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 317 AM EST SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY WITH FULL LATITUDE EASTERN US TROUGH AXIS RUNS NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST US. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY IN ON PERIPHERY OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT BAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND BRINGING 992 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. MEANWHILE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE, FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH ITS 1005 MB SURFACE LOW PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N/70W 12 HOURS EARLIER. FORECAST REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CHANCE POPS FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, TRANSITIONING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS WEST. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...STARTING OUT ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAY WEDNESDAY BUT FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UP UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. BOTH MODELS FALL BACK INTO AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK, FORECASTING POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW, AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...CURRENT WV/IR SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS ALREADY IMPACTING KSLK AND KMSS WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KSLK AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AT KMSS BEFORE LIFTING IN KMSS BY 05-06Z AND EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT KSLK THROUGHOUT THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NEAR DAY BREAK TOMORROW. THE MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILTER TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT MAINLY AROUND 05-06Z AS A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE VT TAF SITES. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE -RA BUT RAPL IS POSSIBLE AT KMPV AND KRUT AS THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARMING ACROSS THE VT TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. INCLUDED LLWS AT BOTH KLSK AND IN KRUT FROM NOW THROUGH 05Z AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BLOWING SOUTHWEST 40KTS AROUND 2000 FT AGL WITH MUCH LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING TO BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN TO RIDGE IN A TRANSITION ZONE WITH RETURN FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND THE DEPARTED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WINDS ARE PEAKING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL LATER SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS AND WAVES ARE RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS AND SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...NONE. NY...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES MARINE...MUCCILLI

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