Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 301441 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1041 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CHANCES EACH DAY FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1041 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...INHERITED FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING THOUGH NEEDED AN UPDATE TO POPS/SKY/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A QUIET DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PERIODS. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A T-STORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCOOTS ALONG THE INTL BORDER OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER...THOUGH LATEST RAP/HRRR/BTV6 ARE HIGHLIGHTING WEAKER ENERGY AND THUS LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS A LITTLE...BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LESS CHANCES ACROSS VT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 442 PM EDT TUESDAY... SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO EVEN WITH WANING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WANING CAN`T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT. A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON THURSDAY...FINALLY THE STRONGEST WAVE WITH FAIRLY STRONG QG FORCING FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION AND BETTER INSTABILITY FROM COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-20C AT KMSS) BY 18Z THU. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE SEE WITH MODELS SHOWING AN EARLY ARRIVAL WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE INSTABILITY (UP TO 1500 J/KG) THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, BUT ALL SHOW SOME. SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FIRST IN NY IN THE MORNING AND REGION WIDE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY IN VT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHICH DO DEVELOP...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. 850 TEMPS 8-11C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S. THURSDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE IS EXITING SO CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12-13C SHOULD GIVE US A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ` WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE AUGUST 1. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT LESS THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 356 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE FEATURES INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THIS PATTERN WILL RELAX A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE GREATEST DURING AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...ASSOCIATED WITH TIME OF MAX HEATING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WILL BE LOWEST...WITH GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...FOG WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MPV TILL ABOUT 13Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH CHANCE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOG CHANCES TONIGHT LIMITED DUE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS AT MPV AFTER 06Z WITH VFR AT REST OF SITES. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY...THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THU - 00Z FRI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. 00Z FRI ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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