Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161153 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 653 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will bring light to moderate snow, warmer temperatures, and increased clouds to the North Country today through Wednesday. Once the system departs, a noticeable warming trend will kick off going into the weekend. There will be chances for some light precipitation during this timeframe as some weak upper disturbances move through. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...Previous forecast on track. Minor adjustments made to temperatures to better capture the warming trend over the next few hours. Also updated sky and PoP grids based on latest satellite/radar trends. Previous Discussion...Have issued a winter weather advisory for Rutland, Windsor and Orange counties of Vermont from noon today through 1 PM on Wednesday. Light warm air advection snow is spreading northeastward into New England in advance of a weakening low over southern Ontario/Lake Huron. Satellite imagery shows mid to upper level clouds have spread over the entire forecast area ahead of the system, preventing additional radiational cooling overnight. Temperatures throughout the forecast area are climbing in the overnight hours in response to warm air advection and the insulating cloud cover. The light snow will continue through the mid morning hours today before tapering off through the early afternoon as the better forcing aloft moves out of the area. By mid to late afternoon, a second wave of snow will begin as heights fall aloft ahead of a shearing upper level trough. This second wave of snow will have better support in the low to mid levels provided by a developing coastal low that will track inside of the 40N 70W benchmark Wednesday. Southern and eastern Vermont will see some influx of Atlantic moisture as southwesterly flow briefly takes on more of a southerly/southeasterly component ahead of the approaching low. Overall, expect to receive generally 3 to 5 inches of snowfall out of the system tonight through Wednesday in southern and eastern Vermont. Northern New York and northern Vermont will pick up lighter amounts (generally up to 3 inches) as the best moisture transport and lift associated with the surface cyclone will stay further south and east. As the surface low tracks further northeast up the New England coast, flow will quickly switch back to westerly and the snow will end by Wednesday evening. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...The short-term period will be relatively quiet across the North Country. As surface low pressure exits across the Bay of Fundy/New Brunswick Wednesday night, a narrow ridge of high pressure is expected to build ewd across central NY into VT. Will see any lingering snow showers/flurries ending across ern VT early Wednesday night. Meanwhile, developing WSW sfc-850mb flow on the nrn periphery of the sfc ridge may be sufficient to generate a few lake effect/upslope snow showers into srn St. Lawrence County and into the nrn Adirondacks later Wednesday night into Thursday, consistent with most of the very high resolution NWP guidance. Thereafter, another weak northern stream shortwave trough with limited moisture will track from the northern Great Lakes quickly ewd across NY/Northern New England during Thursday night. This will bring continued chances for snow showers, mainly across the nrn Adirondacks and nrn Green Mtns. Maximum PoPs during the period are around 40 percent, and any snowfall accumulation from above mentioned factors will be minimal...generally a coating to an inch in spots. Will begin to see a gradual moderation in temperatures, starting with lows 8-15F Wednesday night, followed by highs in the 23-27F range for Thursday, and into the upr teens to lower 20s for lows Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 408 AM EST Tuesday...The 00Z NWP guidance suite continues with the overall theme of a moderating temperature trend through the forecast period, with building mid-level heights across the ern seaboard. A developing mid- level closed low across the central Plains and associated surface frontal system will begin to develop during the day Sunday. Based on current indications, it appears temperatures will moderate into the mid 40s for Saturday/Sunday/Monday. Sfc warm frontal structure in vcnty of the region may result in scattered rain showers or a chance of mixed sleet/freezing rain across sheltered valleys of ern VT during the day Sunday, followed by better surge of south winds and emergence into the warm sector as sfc low is expected to pass across the Great Lakes and through sern Ontario late Sunday night into Monday. Should see a period of moderate rainfall as trailing cold front sweeps across the region later Monday into Monday night. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF are consistent in overall scenario. Given presence of lingering ice jams in spots, may see renewed hydro concerns heading into early next week, though temperatures are not expected to get as warm and rainfall amts are not expected to be as heavy as what occurred on Friday 1/12. We`ll continue to monitor trends with the expected warmup and potential moderate precipitation for Sunday/Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions with light snow will generally improve to MVFR/low VFR conditions as snow tapers off between 13Z and 15Z. Next wave of heavier snow will start at RUT around 19Z, then spread to MPV/BTV/PBG between 00Z and 02Z. With this wave of heavier snow, expect low IFR visibilities through end of TAF period at RUT/MPV with IFR to MVFR visibilities at PBG/BTV. Winds will generally be light from the south throughout the period. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 1 PM EST Wednesday for VTZ010>012-019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSD NEAR TERM...RSD SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...RSD

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