Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210734 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide the North Country with above normal temperatures and dry weather this weekend into early next week. The next chance for widespread rainfall looks to be in the Tuesday through Wednesday time period of next week as a slow moving trough of low pressure impacts the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 334 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather to continue with upper ridge and associated surface high over the area today through Sunday. Other than some high clouds should see plenty of sunshine. Low level warm air advection today through Sunday should allow for a warming trend with highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s and in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday. These temperatures will generally be about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Have noticed dew points are generally in the 30s over the area early this morning and feel models are a bit overdone on the dew points this afternoon based on dew points to our south and west. Thus with the drier air mass in place feel high temperatures today will be a bit higher than guidance values and have bumped highs up a couple of degrees. The warmer temperatures and the lower dew points should allow for afternoon relative humidities in the 30 percent range with a few locations down in the upper 20 percent range. Winds will be under 10 miles an hour...which is noticeably less than the past couple of days. Fine fuels remain dry and the combination of sunshine and lower relative humidities will promote further drying of the fuels...but lack of wind should more than likely keep fire danger in the moderate category today and Sunday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday...Upper ridge with associated surface high pressure system remains in place over the area Sunday and Sunday night. Plenty of sunshine and dry weather is expected with above normal temperatures...highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. Winds will generally be under 10 miles per hour. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Friday...As previous forecaster noted, more amplified pattern will be in place beginning early next week. This will bring a more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation. Best chances for rain will come Tuesday into Wednesday when deep southerly flow develops over the area. Eventually the trough axis shifts east Wednesday night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off to showers and decrease in areal coverage. Looking at a continuation of above normal temperatures through the period despite the clouds and precipitation. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the period with high pressure persisting over the entire Northeast. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Likely RA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance RA.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians repaint the radome. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson EQUIPMENT...BTV

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