Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 011830 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 230 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY. A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SURFACES. THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35 TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS/PCPN WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS (40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY. FRI: VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...NEILES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.