Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262356 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8 INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS 700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS DURING THE PRE- DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING. INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012- 016>019. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031- 034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...NEILES/TABER

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