Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280802 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 302 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF SNOW TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL START BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1010 PM EST TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER IN MOST AREAS...WE HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VERMONT. ALSO...WITH DEEP LOW (988MB) STILL IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH N-NNW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. THUS...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY ACTIVITY. WITH MIXED PBL CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING OVERCAST...WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL SEE SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 10 TO 15 BELOW OVERNIGHT. FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON WEDS...RESULTING IN A SLOW WEST TO EAST CLRING TREND. GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME LINGERING 850 TO 500MB RH ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA THRU 15Z...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP DRYING WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES BY 18Z WEDS. NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL CAUSE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. EXPECTING AN ADVISORY LVL EVENT WITH GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. TEMPS WL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A COLD START ON THURS MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH BOUTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT KPBG AND KMPV IN SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPBG AND KMPV THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 09Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LOW STRATUS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTERWARD WITH SOME LINGER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KBTV, KPBG AND KRUT THROUGH 09Z THEN GRADUALLY LESSENING. COME DAYLIGHT HOURS, NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KBTV/KRUT/KMPV, NORTHEAST AT KPBG AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AT KMSS/KSLK. WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM

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