Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191140 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 740 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the area today with temperatures in the 80s. A weak cold front approaches late this afternoon in northern New York and evening in Vermont with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Another weak frontal system will bring a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. A little bit cooler and drier weather are likely by Saturday into the first part of Sunday under high pressure from Canada. The next weather system will move in with a chance of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 643 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall forecast in good shape with no significant changes needed at this point. Still dealing with areas of low clouds of fog...especially in the favored river and valley locations. Fog and low clouds should dissipate by mid-morning...which going forecast has covered well. Only real tweak was to address band of mid level clouds over the eastern Great Lakes that are moving eastward into the area. Starting to see a trend in these clouds decreasing in areal coverage...but they should have some impact on the area this morning before moving east of the area or dissipating. Rest of forecast in real good shape and no other changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion... Today mostly sunny skies will prevail much of the day and with 850 temps reach 15-16C for high temperatures well into the 80s perhaps touching 87-88 at KBTV. though late afternoon instability increases to 500-1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear around 30 kts in the St. Lawrence valley ahead of a weak cold front. There is also a PW plume of 1.50" ahead of the front which will lead to some increase in mid and high level cloud cover. Low level moisture and dynamics are limited but expected a few showers and thunderstorm to approach KMSS 21-23Z and move southeast possibly reaching KBTV 01-03z but would be isolated at best as daytime heating is gone. Tonight will become partly cloudy with patchy river valley fog possible again though a bit uncertain as the low level flow turns NW and we get some weak cold advection at 850 mb as the weak front drops south of the region. Thursday will be mainly dry though an approaching upper level trof will bring more clouds and perhaps a sprinkle/shower/isld thunderstorm later in the day with warm advection returning. Some very limited instability is forecast with CAPE 250-500 J/kg but PoPs are low as well. The best instability is forecast to remain well south and west of our area. 850 temps a tad lower 13-14C and with more clouds around it will be a few degrees cooler than today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...West to northwest flow aloft becomes established over the area during the period. Any showers Thursday evening should dissipate before midnight and prospects of convection on Friday are looking a bit limited. Instability is expected to develop...but forcing and deep layer shear are not that strong. Like the idea of slight chance wording at best with respect to any convection Friday afternoon. Above normal temperatures are expected on Friday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 328 AM EDT Wednesday...West to northwest flow aloft continues Friday night through Saturday night and thus looking at relatively dry weather. Cooling temperatures aloft on Saturday suggest highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. It looks like the flow aloft transitions to the west on Sunday and eventually the southwest on Monday. This will allow for a boundary to move northeast into our area as well as increasing moisture into the region. As dynamic support increases from an approaching trough...precipitation chances will be increasing Sunday and especially on Monday. Clouds and precipitation Sunday into Monday will allow for temperatures to be at or slightly below seasonal normals. Upper trough moves across the area Monday night into Tuesday and as a result we will still be looking at a chance of showers with slightly below normal temperatures continuing into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 12Z Thursday...Low clouds and fog at KSLK and KMPV will be eroding through 14z and then all sites will be VFR after 14z. Satellite imagery shows band of mid level clouds just to our west and these clouds will move east across the area through the morning hours...but VFR conditions will still exist. A front will move down toward the Canadian border late in the day and there may be some showers or storms between 22z and 04z at KMSS...KSLK...KPBG...and KBTV. Have mentioned vicinity showers for now but the best chance for a thunderstorm would likely be KMSS. After 04z quiet weather is expected with fog developing once again over parts of the area. LIFR to VLIFR conditions are expected at KPBG...KSLK...and KMPV after 06z with VFR conditions elsewhere. Light winds early this morning...then southwest this afternoon and evening at 10 knots or less...before becoming light and variable once again after 04z. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Sisson SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Evenson/Sisson

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