-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 061700
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1200 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ATOP THE AREA TODAY AND SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. CHILLY
TEMPERATURES TODAY MODERATE CONSIDERABLY BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. THE
NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1200 PM EST THURSDAY...TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN SUNNY/DRY
WEATHER AS STRONG 1040 HPA ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TODAY. VERY SHALLOW PBL DEPTH WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND 1500 FT...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE IN
THE MID TEENS TO M20S. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LGT OUT OF THE N/NNE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BECM MOSTLY CALM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...QUIET/CLR WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS SLOWLY OVER
TIME. PRIMARY WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE...THOUGH LOCALLY CHILLIER (TO
-10F) FAR EAST...AND LOCALLY MILDER (AROUND +10F) IN PORTIONS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS WHERE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
EARLIER AND TEMPERATURES MAY SLOWLY RISE LATE. HIGHS BY FRIDAY
SOLIDLY IN THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
P-GRAD TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT AS WELL...SO SOME AREAS COULD TREND A
TAD BREEZY BY AFTERNOON...ESP CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SLOWLY INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER TIME. WITH SUCH A DEARTH IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MEAGER DYNAMICAL FORCING/FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS HERE OR THERE BY SATURDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS NEGLIGIBLE
IN MOST SPOTS OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE...30S FOR MOST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM EST THURSDAY...WK SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO FALL APART
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO BROAD UPPER TROUGH
THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. WK SFC RIDGING BEHIND EXITING TROUGH LATE
SUNDAY ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE TO DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LKS SUN NGT
AND THRU THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO ARRIVAL OF
SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MDLS DIFFER TO ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO
REPLACE BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH IS SLOWER ON GFS
SIDE AND DRIER ON THE ECMWF SIDE. FOR PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED...WILL BE CONTINUING MENTION OF CHANCE/SL CHANCE POPS
FOR -SW AS EACH SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIR POPS
FOCUSED ON HIR TRRN/NW FACING SLOPES. OVERALL D-1" VALLEYS TO
1-2" AT MOST IN SPOTS OVER HIR TRRN FOR THE 2 CLOSE MVG
SHORTWAVES WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH GENERAL D-1" FOR
REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH/SFC FRONT SAT NGT/SUNDAY. TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL FINALLY HAVE CWA SEEING NUMBERS CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
EVEN ABV IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE
NUMBERS WILL BE CLD DEPENDENT...BUT WITH 850/925 MB TEMPS RANGING
FROM 0 TO -12C(WARMEST DURING THE DAY/COLDEST OVERNGT)...CWA WILL
SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S THRU THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WARMEST IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IF
CLD COVER COOPERATES AND BREAKS UP OVER WEEKEND. OVERNGT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO M20S FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DOWN TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS/TEENS DUE TO SOME
COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND EACH OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES EXPECTED
SECOND HALF OF EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SKC THRU PERIOD. MPV/RUT
WILL SEE FEW200-250 AFT 16Z. BTV 12Z-13Z MVFR FG. WINDS LGT/VAR
BECM SSE 5-10KTS BY 18Z...THEN 5KTS OR LESS BY 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CONTINUED VFR ALL TAFS BUT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER FRIDAY RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE GUSTY/CHANNELED SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MSS.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND VT BRINGING POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

12Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/LOCONTO