Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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739 FXUS61 KBTV 090833 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 333 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 103 AM EST TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE DAY WED AND AGAIN ON THU WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PRETTY LOW AND NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY...ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BE IN PLACE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...THEN TEMPERATURES RECOVER MONDAY AS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF SLIDES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST TIME PERIOD...AND A DECENT GRADIENT ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROF AS IT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD. SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT THAT FAR OUT YET...BOTH MODELS DUE SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE REGION IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. 00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...WGH/RJS

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