-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 251446
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
946 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. LOW CONTINUES ON ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 939 AM EST SUNDAY... TEMPS ARE A MIXED BAG THIS MORNING AS
THEY ARE ALL FALLING SLOWLY BEHIND THE FRONT. COMPOSITE RADAR IS
SHOWING THE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SQUALLS PASSING THROUGH TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST REGION AND OUT OF THE AREA. OTHER THAN
SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET EXPECT THAT TO BE THE END OF OUR PRECIP TODAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM
AROUND THE AREA LOOK HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY SIDE AND SO I
CONTINUED TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY 10-15KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE...ALREADY SEEING SOME TEENS IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH
THAT AREA. THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ENDING AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR TODAY...AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REALIZED RIGHT AT 12Z...THEN CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA BEHIND
THIS ARCTIC FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SOME SINGLE DIGITS BY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND SOME 20S EARLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST SUNDAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL ALSO BE COLD AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE TONIGHT
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THEN
ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON
MONDAY...THOUGH WITH A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THAT PASSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL
INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z
TUESDAY. LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...THOUGH SLOWLY...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LOT OF DIFFERENCES WITH
TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ASPECT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
GFS...NAM...ECMWF...AND SREF ALL HAVE LOW PASSING VERY NEAR TO THE
BENCHMARK...BUT NAM KEEPS PRECIP SHIELD CLOSER TO THE BOMBING LOW
CENTER. ECMWF BRINGS US THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...BUT FEEL THAT
THE AMOUNTS ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE THAT MODEL IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. SNOW WILL BE ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
RIGHT AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...AND SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THINK THAT
THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS VERMONT...STILL HEAVIEST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE A BIT INTO THE
TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND THEN BECOME MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW
UPSLOPE SNOW SCENARIO. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED LIKELY POPS ACROSS
OUR VERMONT ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. FEEL THAT RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT REACHING WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL TOTALS AND HAVE
HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE THREE MOST SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR WARNING AREA.

MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT SHOW STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...IT`S MORE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WE ALSO LOOKED AT SEVERAL STORM
ANALOGS THAT KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN SIMILAR HISTORIC STORMS. DRY ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL BE SINKING
OVER OUR FORECAST ARE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MAY ALSO BE TOUGH TO
GET OUT OF HERE TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE MOIST AIR TO REACH OUR AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER TO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ASSESS POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING TO
A WARNING AND ADVISORY ACROSS AT LEAST OUR VERMONT ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 241 AM EST SUNDAY...EXPECT SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
TAIL END LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN TO END ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESP EAST. THEN
GENERALLY DRY BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN. LEANED
MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF INSISTS RAPID DEEPENING YET AGAIN OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER IMPACTS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS
BEEN TOO COMMONPLACE WITH THIS MODEL SO FAR THIS WINTER AND
PREFERENCE...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME SCALE WOULD BE TO WAIT FOR MORE
CONSENSUS BEFORE TRENDING WHOLESALE IN THAT DIRECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS MAKES INROADS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WEATHER AND ANOTHER SHOT AT FLURRIES/VERY
LIGHT SNOWS BY DAY 7 WITH ANOTHER WEAK NRN STREAM IMPULSE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN
TERMINALS AT 12Z. LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR
CONDS TO TREND VFR THROUGH 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. SKIES TRENDING PC/SKC BY 00Z. WINDS GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY TO 25 KTS THROUGH 18Z...THEN ABATING
THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY
26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS
TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM.
HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE
KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WGH