Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251446 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 946 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. LOW CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 939 AM EST SUNDAY... TEMPS ARE A MIXED BAG THIS MORNING AS THEY ARE ALL FALLING SLOWLY BEHIND THE FRONT. COMPOSITE RADAR IS SHOWING THE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SQUALLS PASSING THROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST REGION AND OUT OF THE AREA. OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET EXPECT THAT TO BE THE END OF OUR PRECIP TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE AREA LOOK HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY SIDE AND SO I CONTINUED TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY 10-15KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION... ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE...ALREADY SEEING SOME TEENS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR TODAY...AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED RIGHT AT 12Z...THEN CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THIS ARCTIC FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SOME SINGLE DIGITS BY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND SOME 20S EARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 420 AM EST SUNDAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL ALSO BE COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THEN ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THOUGH SLOWLY...ONLY REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LOT OF DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ASPECT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. GFS...NAM...ECMWF...AND SREF ALL HAVE LOW PASSING VERY NEAR TO THE BENCHMARK...BUT NAM KEEPS PRECIP SHIELD CLOSER TO THE BOMBING LOW CENTER. ECMWF BRINGS US THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...BUT FEEL THAT THE AMOUNTS ARE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE THAT MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. SNOW WILL BE ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES RIGHT AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...AND SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THINK THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS VERMONT...STILL HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE A BIT INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND THEN BECOME MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SCENARIO. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. FEEL THAT RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL TOTALS AND HAVE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE THREE MOST SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF OUR WARNING AREA. MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT SHOW STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...IT`S MORE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WE ALSO LOOKED AT SEVERAL STORM ANALOGS THAT KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SIMILAR HISTORIC STORMS. DRY ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL BE SINKING OVER OUR FORECAST ARE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MAY ALSO BE TOUGH TO GET OUT OF HERE TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE MOIST AIR TO REACH OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ASSESS POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING TO A WARNING AND ADVISORY ACROSS AT LEAST OUR VERMONT ZONES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 241 AM EST SUNDAY...EXPECT SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWS DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TAIL END LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN TO END ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESP EAST. THEN GENERALLY DRY BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THIS MORNINGS ECMWF INSISTS RAPID DEEPENING YET AGAIN OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER IMPACTS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN TOO COMMONPLACE WITH THIS MODEL SO FAR THIS WINTER AND PREFERENCE...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME SCALE WOULD BE TO WAIT FOR MORE CONSENSUS BEFORE TRENDING WHOLESALE IN THAT DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS MAKES INROADS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A TREND TOWARD CONSIDERABLY COLDER WEATHER AND ANOTHER SHOT AT FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOWS BY DAY 7 WITH ANOTHER WEAK NRN STREAM IMPULSE. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN TERMINALS AT 12Z. LINGERING FLURRIES/-SHSN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS TO TREND VFR THROUGH 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. SKIES TRENDING PC/SKC BY 00Z. WINDS GUSTY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY TO 25 KTS THROUGH 18Z...THEN ABATING THEREAFTER. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 106 PM EST FRIDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY JANUARY 26TH. THIS IS DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN HAS ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ010>012-019. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG EQUIPMENT...WGH

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