Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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105 FXUS61 KBTV 200901 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 501 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... We will see clouds and some lingering showers over the area early this morning...but drier air will begin to move in and increasing amounts are expected as the day wears on. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dry weather continues tonight and Monday as high pressure moves across the area. A warming trend will take place with highs in the 80s and a good deal of sunshine. Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday with highs in the 80s...but an approaching trough of low pressure will enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 426 AM EDT Sunday...Water vapor imagery shows well defined trough over Quebec Province early this morning which is enhancing rain showers over northeast New York and northwest Vermont. These showers will continue through about 12z...which is when trough axis finally shift east of the area. Noticeable drying is taking place upstream across southeast Ontario and thus we should be able to see increasing amounts of sunshine as the day wears on. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. For tonight and Monday...high pressure builds in tonight and gradually exits the area on Monday. Dry weather is expected during this time period with little in the way of cloud cover as well. Flow in the low and mid levels becomes west and southwest...which will allow for warm air advection to take place. Based on increasing 850 mb temperatures all areas should easily get into 80s with a few spots in the Champlain Valley getting into the upper 80s. Solar eclipse viewing on Monday still looks good with little in the way of cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 455 AM EDT Sunday...Monday night should mainly remain dry ahead of approaching frontal system which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Warm air advection continues on warm southwesterly flow, temperatures will only drop into the 60s across the North Country. Could see a couple isolated showers in the Saint Lawrence valley. On Tuesday, a low pressure system will move Northeastward from the Northern Great Lakes into Southern Quebec. Warm air advection on moist southwesterly flow continues on Tuesday and max temps will edge into the upper 80s, with perhaps a couple 90 degree readings in the warmer spots. Looks like surface cold front will still be west of our forecast area by 00z Wed. Think that by Tuesday afternoon we could have some surface based instability, especially in the Saint Lawrence valley and Northern Adirondacks, enough for some thunderstorms to pop up ahead of the approaching cold front. Have increased pops after 18z in our western zones to likely. Pretty strong upper level jet dynamics, so think that storms that do form could have strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall with pwats nearing two inches by Thursday evening. Have not added enhanced wording yet, but may need to as we get closer to Tuesday afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...Surface cold front will push west to east across our forecast area Tuesday night, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected. As previously mentioned, gusty winds and heavy rain will still be possible with high pwats and favorable jet dynamics. Not the best time for a fropa in regards to severe weather, but at this time looks like some of the storms could be strong. We may have some showers Wednesday and Wednesday night with upper level trough trailing departing surface frontal system crossing our forecast area. Conditions will trend drier from Thursday onward with large ridge of surface high pressure building into the region from the North for most of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z Monday...An upper level trough is moving across the area early this morning and will be east of our area by 12z. Expect VFR to MVFR ceilings through 12z before VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period as little in the way of cloud cover is expected. Winds will pick up from the west and northwest this morning at speeds in the 5 to 15 knot range before tapering off after 00z tonight. Outlook... Monday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Occasional SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson

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