-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 220549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TONIGHT ON
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 118 AM EDT TUESDAY...RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F IN HIR TRRN....TO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN
VALLEY LOCALES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 421 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT WORKING INTO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC LOW TRACK
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTNOON...SFC LOW WILL
BE OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIP. LEADING UP TO THE EVENING HRS...FRONTAL BAND WILL SHIFT
INTO EASTERN VT. MDL TIMING AND EXPECTED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE DEVIATED VERY
LITTLE WHICH GIVES AREA 0.20-0.40" OF RAIN. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HRS IN N NY AND BY EARLY AFTNOON FOR
OTHER POINTS EAST. FORECASTED HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLD COVER AHEAD/DURING
FROPA. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH FROPA WILL BRING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW. MAINLY
-RW IN VALLEY LOCALES WITH -RW TRANSITIONING TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
WITH 1-2" LOCALIZED POTENTIAL ACCUM. STILL LOOKING FOR 10-20 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR GUSTS AND LOWS IN THE 30S FOR HIR TRRN
TO NEAR 40F IN THE MAIN VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE ENTIRE CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND REGIME W/ DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OVER PRECIP OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EXITING
LOW WILL KEEP TIGHT GRADIENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS BUT LESSENING
GOING INTO EVENING HRS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF -RW FOR VALLEY LOCALES WITH SCT -SW/-RW OVER HIR
TRRN. SNOW ACCUM AROUND AN INCH OR SO WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NE VT
CLOSEST TO EXITING LOW. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE 20S IN HIR TRRN TO THE LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE. LOW NUMBERS AIDED BY CAA AHEAD OF SFC RIDGE COMBINED W/
CLRING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ANTICIPATED...WITH CHANGEABLE WX EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS...TYPICAL OF
SPRINGTIME ACRS THE NE CONUS. DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH BRISK
NW WINDS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE
MORNING...MAY PRODUCE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY ACRS THE MTNS. SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN -4C AND
-6C AT 12Z THURS...BUT WARM BTWN +2C AND +4C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
PROFILE WL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S MTNS TO U40S TO M50S VALLEYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. LATEST 12Z GFS CONTS TO SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE
CONUS...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WX AND COOL CONDITIONS. THIS
SUPPORT WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT
THRU NEXT MONDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40/L50S
VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A
PROGRESSIVE WEST TO EAST PATTERN CONTINUING ACRS THE NE CONUS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A CHC OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMER/DRIER WX BY MONDAY.
EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH A CHC
OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND...ITS JUST A QUESTION OF THE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WL MENTION HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE TRRN DRIVEN PRECIP CHCS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME SHRA
TO KMSS...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION VCSH AT KBTV/KPBG AND
-SHRA AT KMSS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THRU MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE REGION...TRIGGERING
-SHRA/RA AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIME...PRODUCING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SW/W BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE KEEPING -SHRA AND LVL MVFR CIGS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING
THE EVENING HRS TUESDAY NGT.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...KGM