Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271707 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 107 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY... CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY. LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING JET. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z. AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD... THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/KGM SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON

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