Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161145 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 745 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold frontal passage overnight is ushering in drier air and more seasonable temperatures on gusty northwesterly winds. Winds will gradually subside during the day, but clouds will be slow to break. High temperatures will be roughly 20 degrees cooler than Sunday, only reaching the low to mid 50s in most areas, and remaining in the 40s across the northern Adirondacks. Clearing skies and light winds will result in chilly temperatures tonight, with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest near Lake Champlain. Will see areas of frost tonight, along with patchy dense fog in the favored river valleys, especially across central and eastern Vermont. Winds switch into the south on Tuesday, and a warming trend will commence with dry conditions throughout the week. Highs will generally be in the 60s to lower 70s for Wednesday through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 742 AM EDT Monday...Much more fall-like conditions today following Sunday`s warmth. Surface cold front has pushed east of the CT river valley and strong low-level CAA continues in its wake this morning. Dewpoints are dropping into the 30s across srn Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley, and 850mb 0C line is pushing into the Champlain Valley at 08Z. Temp of 37F currently at KSLK. Upstream IR satellite trends suggest clouds will remain abundant through the daylight hrs today, as frontal inversion traps clouds/moisture below 875mb level. Will see some breaks in the overcast this afternoon, but generally looking at mostly cloudy skies with cloud ceilings 2-3kft. Above factors will keep daytime highs only in the low- mid 50s, and mid-upr 40s for the nrn Adirondacks. Readings will be a good 20DEG cooler than observed highs on Sunday. NW winds will remain gusty this morning with steep low-level lapse rates, generally 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph...but gradually decrease by this afternoon. Surface ridge axis builds into our region from the Great Lakes tonight, and increased subsidence and lighter winds will allow stratus and stratocu to break up toward/after sunset. Will see good radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 20s across the nrn Adirondacks and nern VT, to the mid 30s across the Champlain Islands. The local frost/freeze program remains active across the Champlain Valley. As a result, have issued freeze warnings in the Champlain Valley (05-12Z Tuesday), except a frost advisory for the Champlain Islands with the moderating influence of the warm lake temps (still in the low 60s). Sfc ridge axis translates to our east Tuesday allowing a southerly return flow of 10-15 mph to set up. This will begin a moderating temperature trend under mostly clear skies. Should see high temperatures in the 55-60F range. PoPs NIL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will dominate the weather pattern throughout the rest of the week. Quiet and dry conditions are expected with little in the way of weather to speak of. Slight warm air advection will increase temps back above normal with 925mb temps warming to +12 to +14 which will support highs in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Monday...The persistent upper level ridge will continue to build over the North Country leaving almost nil chances for precip through the weekend. Temps will continue to be above normal with highs in 60s and lows in the mid 40s. We should see a slight airmass change on Thursday as a upper level low pressure system over the Hudson Bay will try to drag a cold front through the North Country but the system will be moisture deprived so even if the front gets here there shouldn`t be any chance for rain. The more likely solution is that we see some cloud cover on Thursday into Friday and that leads to a dampening of temperatures. The weekend looks like its going to be another warm one as warm air advection will bring temps near 70 to the Champlain Valley with full sun. All in all the extended is fairly quiet with calm weather expected. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 12Z Tuesday...NW winds 10-15kt with gusts to 25kts will continue through mid-morning in the wake of the cold front which moved through during the overnight hrs. Will be dealing with abundant MVFR ceilings (BKN-OVC020-030) this morning with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Ceilings will gradually improve back to VFR this afternoon, except possibly at KSLK. Will see clearing and lighter winds tonight. May see periods of LIFR fog at MPV/SLK 07-12Z Tuesday with light wind and clear sky conditions. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Patchy FG. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ002-005- 009. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001. NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Banacos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.