Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 171735 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 135 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The next few days will be a bit unsettled with some isolated to scattered rain showers in the valleys and snow showers in the mountains. Any snow accumulations will be light and confined to the higher peaks. The shower chances will end later in the week but temperatures will remain around or below climatological normals. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 129 PM EDT Sunday...Scattered to numerous showers have developed over northern New York. The extent is a bit greater than expected. It appears likely that dry dewpoints in model forecasts resulted in the underforecast coverage, but it could also be the common issue with high res guidance tending to underforecast shallow convection in cold environments. Ramped PoPs upwards for the remainder of the day. Otherwise, everything is on track. Have a great day! Previous forecast follows.... A line of heavier precipitation is currently moving across the forecast area from west to east. It should leave Vermont by mid- morning and only a few showers should remain behind it. Total liquid equivalent precipitation will be under a quarter inch except in the mountains where totals up to 0.4 inches are possible. Snow levels will be around 2500 ft so any accumulations will be limited to the highest terrain. Behind the line of precipitation, lapse rates will steepen and deep mixing will occur. This should cause a few convective showers during the day. West to southwest flow will limit orographic showers to the far northern Greens where there will be some snow showers in the highest elevations. Highs in the broad valleys will be in the upper 40s to around 50 but with the steep lapse rates, highs in the mountains will only be a few degrees above freezing. Any convection should dissipate overnight but with temperatures dropping close to freezing, any lingering showers could fall as snow anywhere. A very similar setup will occur on Monday where more scattered convective showers and orographic precipitation will occur, with the orographic precipitation again mostly confined to the far northern Greens. However, winds will begin to shift toward more northwesterly later during the day and this should allow orographic snow showers to fall father south on the Greens as well. Flow should be unblocked so the orographic precipitation should fall closer to the ridgetops or even on the lee sides or the mountains. A shortwave will pivot through later in the day on Monday and enhance the snow showers as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will be decreasing with upslope northwesterly flow continuing to favor isolated to scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains into Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the boundary with cold air advection dropping lows into the teens for the Adirondacks and 20s elsewhere Tuesday morning. Likewise, high temperatures will be trending down as well, generally in the 30s a few degrees below seasonal averages. With breezes conditions may feel comparatively brisk to recent temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Longwave troughing settles over eastern Canada with the North Country likely remaining towards the base of the trough. A frontal system seems probable with most models projecting passage Wednesday/Wednesday night. The continental nature of the airmasses will largely preclude heavy precipitation, but a few inches of snow above 2500ft seems reasonable while flow pattern favors a quick moving system. With projected zonal flow south of the region, and position of the longwave trough, conditions should remain unsettled through the end of the week into the weekend. Model consensus favors colder than average temperatures for Thursday with highs struggling to reach 32 degrees. The rest of the extended forecast will feature near/slightly below average temperatures and periods of lower elevation rain showers and high elevation snow showers. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 18Z Monday...Shallow convection has developed. Most activity is rain, though there a few embedded areas with snow showers. In places like KSLK and KMSS, noted prevailing SHRA and potential just SN at KSLK. Overall, not anticipating too much obstruction to visibility with dry near surface conditions, but a few heavier elements may bring visibility down towards 2-5SM. There`s a wide range of ceilings between 1500-5000 ft agl, and think ceilings should generally lift the next 6 to 12 hours. Showers will diminish between 00z and 02z, with skies trending CLR across KRUT and KMPV. West winds at 6 to 11 knots and gusts up to 18 knots with trend 4 to 7 knots overnight. After 09z, a cold front will descend from the northwest, with west-southwest winds increasing again to 6 to 11 knots with gusts to 18 knots, but most shower activity should remain until after 15z Outlook... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Haynes

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