Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 171735
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
135 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The next few days will be a bit unsettled with some isolated to
scattered rain showers in the valleys and snow showers in the
mountains. Any snow accumulations will be light and confined to the
higher peaks. The shower chances will end later in the week but
temperatures will remain around or below climatological normals.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 129 PM EDT Sunday...Scattered to numerous showers have
developed over northern New York. The extent is a bit greater
than expected. It appears likely that dry dewpoints in model
forecasts resulted in the underforecast coverage, but it could
also be the common issue with high res guidance tending to
underforecast shallow convection in cold environments. Ramped
PoPs upwards for the remainder of the day. Otherwise, everything
is on track. Have a great day! Previous forecast follows....
A line of heavier precipitation is currently moving across the
forecast area from west to east. It should leave Vermont by mid-
morning and only a few showers should remain behind it. Total
liquid equivalent precipitation will be under a quarter inch
except in the mountains where totals up to 0.4 inches are
possible. Snow levels will be around 2500 ft so any
accumulations will be limited to the highest terrain. Behind the
line of precipitation, lapse rates will steepen and deep mixing
will occur. This should cause a few convective showers during
the day. West to southwest flow will limit orographic showers to
the far northern Greens where there will be some snow showers
in the highest elevations. Highs in the broad valleys will be in
the upper 40s to around 50 but with the steep lapse rates,
highs in the mountains will only be a few degrees above
freezing. Any convection should dissipate overnight but with
temperatures dropping close to freezing, any lingering showers
could fall as snow anywhere. A very similar setup will occur on
Monday where more scattered convective showers and orographic
precipitation will occur, with the orographic precipitation
again mostly confined to the far northern Greens. However, winds
will begin to shift toward more northwesterly later during the
day and this should allow orographic snow showers to fall father
south on the Greens as well. Flow should be unblocked so the
orographic precipitation should fall closer to the ridgetops or
even on the lee sides or the mountains. A shortwave will pivot
through later in the day on Monday and enhance the snow showers
as well.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Precipitation chances will be decreasing
with upslope northwesterly flow continuing to favor isolated to
scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains into
Tuesday. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the boundary with
cold air advection dropping lows into the teens for the Adirondacks
and 20s elsewhere Tuesday morning. Likewise, high temperatures will
be trending down as well, generally in the 30s a few degrees below
seasonal averages. With breezes conditions may feel comparatively
brisk to recent temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Sunday...Longwave troughing settles over eastern
Canada with the North Country likely remaining towards the base of
the trough. A frontal system seems probable with most models
projecting passage Wednesday/Wednesday night. The continental nature
of the airmasses will largely preclude heavy precipitation, but a
few inches of snow above 2500ft seems reasonable while flow pattern
favors a quick moving system. With projected zonal flow south of the
region, and position of the longwave trough, conditions should
remain unsettled through the end of the week into the weekend. Model
consensus favors colder than average temperatures for Thursday with
highs struggling to reach 32 degrees. The rest of the extended
forecast will feature near/slightly below average temperatures
and periods of lower elevation rain showers and high elevation
snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 18Z Monday...Shallow convection has developed. Most
activity is rain, though there a few embedded areas with snow
showers. In places like KSLK and KMSS, noted prevailing SHRA and
potential just SN at KSLK. Overall, not anticipating too much
obstruction to visibility with dry near surface conditions, but
a few heavier elements may bring visibility down towards 2-5SM.
There`s a wide range of ceilings between 1500-5000 ft agl, and
think ceilings should generally lift the next 6 to 12 hours.
Showers will diminish between 00z and 02z, with skies trending
CLR across KRUT and KMPV. West winds at 6 to 11 knots and gusts
up to 18 knots with trend 4 to 7 knots overnight. After 09z, a
cold front will descend from the northwest, with west-southwest
winds increasing again to 6 to 11 knots with gusts to 18 knots,
but most shower activity should remain until after 15z
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes